Metagame Musings and August Statistics Discussion

[Ray Jay]

approved by macle.

Metagame Musings by Ray Jay
Or: One Washed-up player's Words of Wisdom

Thanks to the many of you who have consistently talked with me or encouraged me after I have not had the time the past 8 or 9 months to dedicate time to Smogon. I wanted to say that I have, while not playing to the degree I once did, been battling when I can and more importantly, following the development of the LC metagame quite closely.

I want to start by saying this is intended to draw up some discussion and controversy. This started as a post in the metagame thread, where I wanted to point out that I believe we have some fascinating usage stats, and I think they provide ample room for any serious LC player to rethink their game and improve. For reference, here are the stats I will use to draw my "conclusions" about the current metagame:

http://sim.smogon.com:8080/Stats/2014-08/lc.txt
http://sim.smogon.com:8080/Stats/2014-08/lc-1760.0.txt
http://sim.smogon.com:8080/Stats/2014-08/moveset/lc-1760.0.txt
http://sim.smogon.com:8080/Stats/2014-08/moveset/lc-0.0.txt

Let's start off with the obvious things, those things that people should look to if they want to step up their game, or the differences between players and great players, simply by Pokemon used:

• Good players (1760 +) use Abra 2% less frequently than the average player. However, there is far more consensus and Pokemon with more usage than Abra above 1760. When 1760+ use Abra, they almost always use Focus Sash, while the average player only uses it 50% of the time. 1760 + players are using Hidden Power Fighting more than 3x as often. Conclusion: Abra is overhyped in general, but has the most potential with Focus Sash and a set that promotes Super Effective coverage (HP Fighting > Energy Ball) rather than a generalist Life Orb set.
• Aipom is used by 15% of average players, but only 5% of 1760+ players. Conclusion: Aipom is often used in place of better Pokemon, particularly by low level players.
• Mienfoo and Pawniard are (unsurprisingly) used more than twice as frequently by 1760+ players. Conclusion: These Pokemon serve as jacks-of-all-trades that fill niches needed on successful teams
• Gastly's usage has shot up as expected, and is frequently paired with Pawniard. There is no consensus on a best item for Gastly. Conclusion: People are using Gastly in place of Misdreavus, but are struggling to have it fill the same niche. Gastly's place should be on more offensive teams, where it can take advantage of the additional coverage provided by Sludge Bomb. The average player who is struggling to counter Fighting-types should look to Snubbull, who is used far more frequently beyond 1760 and causes Mienfoo to switch out more than any other Pokemon.
• Lower ranking players, on average, use Scraggy more than 1760+. Conclusion: Scraggy can easily used to climb the rankings at first, but is harder to use once higher rankings are reached, where Mienfoo is far more prevalent.
• Drilbur is the only Pokemon in the top 10 that uses entry hazards a majority of the time. Tirtouga and Archen use Stealth Rock around 35% of the time. Conclusion: Momentum cores (Mienfoo, Chinchou, Fletchling, Magnemite) are far more popular 1760+ as they effectively allow the player to make safe moves with few drawbacks.

And finally, because it's getting late, we'll close with a few of my unstatistically based observations:

• People (esp. above 1760) seem to be using Foongus for something Ferroseed does better (punishing Chinchou usage) because the Mienfoo fear is so real and because it allows them to make mistakes and Regenerate it off. Try Ferroseed alongside a Ponyta or Larvesta, who has the potential to punish Mienfoo U-turns much harder. Use Ferroseed to stack hazards against Chinchous that attempt to abuse Volt Turn strats.
• In the current meta, it seems most effective to stay away from these Pokemon that the average player seems to really want to work: Aipom, Diglett, Porygon, Honedge, and Onix
• Hyper offense Normal-type staples, including the now infamous Fletchling and also Bunnelby seem to be effective in this metagame due to not only the removal of a Ghost-type but the relative infrequency of burn status to previous metagames.
• Perhaps most important of all: I believe LC players are using the safest mons they can find. This is hampering innovation and is providing cringe-worthy teambuilding. The average player's usage stats show clearly a balance of all of these "safe mons" who sit around 15% or higher, while the 1760+ stats show only an amplified version of this (6 Pokemon at around 30% usage or higher). I do not believe this is due to overcentralization, but due to pressure to have a well-rounded team. What people churn out are teams in which "safe" Pokemon (regenerators, Focus Sash Abra, Knock Off spam, Acrobatics spam) lack synergy but simply overpower the layman's LC through the allowance of multiple mistakes within a single game. The truly skilled player can punish this playstyle heavily through the use of baits and lures, but also through hyper offense or even stall. To players that wish to become the best right now: focus not on well-rounded teambuilding but on better playing that has fewer mistakes, which allows you to use objectively stronger Pokemon in the same slots.

 

[dsr95]

Your last non-statistic based observation is dead on. I believe players should focus more on ideas (movesets and Pokemon) that can expand the metagame, or counter it. Also, finding new ways to support undiscovered threats that don't mind the presence of most of the metagame's overused Pokemon is another way to make the game more to play. Because usually, you see people with a "different" team and all they did was change 1 of the Pokemon on their team for something underused and picked things like Mienfoo/Pawn to spam Knock Off around the opponent's team so that the underused Pokemon can KO things... instead of finding other ways to make it work, such as eliminating a specific threat that harms its setup or something.

 

[The Quasar]

I like statistics. Because when we are talking about, the numbers speak for themselves and we could have hints about LC is going to, how is walking around. It's always a good tool for help bulding phase. You could check recurring moves used, evs, teammates and so on.

And comparison is always interesting. For example, we could watch Mienfoo's moveset in different files. For example Life Orb usage is missing between good players. Acrobatics and Fake Out different usage is really considerable in 1760, the first move is quite overlocking the second one; otherwise the difference is over 40% in normal stats, where Poison Jab has its niche yet.

 

[Goddess Briyella]

I only have one question:

In the current meta, it seems most effective to stay away from these Pokemon that the average player seems to really want to work: Aipom, Diglett, Porygon, Honedge, and Onix

Porygon is great... why is it in this list?

 

[apt-get]

this p much sums up the current meta, I guess.

I've been testing a lot of cool shit recently (smash omanyte + resttalk toxic gothita, itemless archen, SD HJK riolu, knock off abra, anorith...) and there's a lot of hidden gems in this meta (and I'm not talking about overhyped shit like chespin). Unfortunately, creativity for the sake of creativity isn't really good, and people should look at new, unexpected niches pokémon can fill instead of trying to make a subpar pokémon viable.

Just my 2 cents

Porygon is great... why is it in this list?

being generally subpar at beating shit compared to before: misdreavus is gone, pawniard and mienfoo smash it hard, it can't really do shit to SD fletch, and generally the average team has multiple checks to it. the only thing it's really good for is beating chinchou nowadays

 

[Goddess Briyella]

being generally subpar at beating shit compared to before: misdreavus is gone, pawniard and mienfoo smash it hard, it can't really do shit to SD fletch, and generally the average team has multiple checks to it. the only thing it's really good for is beating chinchou nowadays

I don't understand this.

Porygon handles Gastly way better than it handled Misdreavus, simply because Gastly doesn't have the bulk or ability to boost with Nasty Plot, and it allows Porygon to be able to run Psychic to hit both LC's most prominent offensive Ghost-type AND Fighting-types (bar Scraggy). Pawniard and Mienfoo are no better at beating Porygon now than they were when everyone agreed Porygon was great before. Offensive Porygon has a 75% to chance to OHKO standard Fletchling with Tri Attack, while +2 Acrobatics is always a 2HKO back to that set, even with Stealth Rock up.

And Porygon's great bulk with Eviolite combined with Thunder Wave and Recover makes it one of the best Pokemon on stall, semi-stall, and balance teams, which are even better now that the threats of Misdreavus and Murkrow, among others, are gone. I'm not understanding how Porygon is "subpar at beating shit compared to before" when it was good before and the only thing that changed is that a handful of strong offensive threats are now banned. Its viability isn't hampered just because it was Misdreavus's best answer and Misdreavus is banned now lol.

 

[Rowan]

I only have one question:



Porygon is great... why is it in this list?

No denial that Porygon is great, but since Misdreavus is gone, it's lost a massive niche as being the only bulky normal that beats it. I don't think Porygon has become any less viable, but I believe that with Misdreavus gone, people are using Porygon, when they could actually be using something else that does the same thing but better. A massive thing for me in this meta, is that I'm almost always swapping Porygon out for Munchlax, because of it's superior Special bulk, allowing it to take stuff like Omanyte, Bellsprout, Gastly, and Abra on much more easily, often a role people use Porygon for. Not saying Porygon isn't useful for stuff, it's superior physical bulk, can be helpful for taking on Pokemon like Fletchling in a pinch, but again, that's not what players are using it for.

Also, Lickitung has superior mixed bulk to both Munchlax and Porygon, but just doesn't have the offensive pressure that the other two have. If you want something to take on both physical and special sweepers and are using Porygon, it's also a suggestion to try out Lickitung. I know that most people using Porygon don't actually use it for its offensive pressure that much. I think if you are using Porygon, download tank is probably the most way to go because you have to take advantage of the offensive pressure it has over Lickitung, and the higher physical bulk it has over Munchlax. If you are using the Trace wall, you should only be considering it for teams that are really weak to Chinchou. As a side note everyone should be running Ice Beam / Psychic > Shadow Ball.

At the end of the day, since Misdreavus is gone, Lickitung and Munchlax can fulfill their niches much better often making Porygon have to fight for a teamslot more; except players actually aren't considering Munchlax and Lickitung.

 

[Celestavian]

I think the last bullet point is missing the point of why some players play. Personally, I've found myself putting Sash Abra on every team because it is so good at what it does. Does that hamper creativity? Maybe. Do I care, as a player? No. Most importantly, do I think that it is a detriment to the metagame? Not at all. I don't put Sash Abra on a team to "play safe". Quite the opposite is true; Abra's presence on my team let's me play aggressive and put tons of pressure on my opponent. While the opponent is setting up a sweeper, I can set up Stealth Rock and not care, letting Abra handle it later and winning the game later with my own sweeper now that opposing Sturdy and Focus Sashes aren't a problem. I can start Bulk Up wars with opposing Timburr, creating a situation where I win if my Timburr wins and where I don't lose if it doesn't. I can make an aggressive switch that will put me far ahead if it works and only be a minor setback if it doesn't. I'm not saying Abra can't be a crutch for a newer player who makes tons of mistakes to better their win chance, because it can. I'm saying I don't use it like that. I trust myself not to make a big mistake, and thus can use Abra to set up big plays that win me the game by virtue of pressure, which is a fantastic and powerful way to win a game.

 

[Superpowerdude]

Thanks for this Ray Jay I really hope you stick around because your posts are always interesting to read. After reading this I personally will try to look at usage stats more closely in order to aid my team building.

Containing almost every unevolved Pokemon and that meta game still being fresh with Missy leaving there seems to be a lot of room for new Pokemon to come in the spotlight and hidden gems.

I have really been liking webs and Bunnelby in the absence of missy, many Poison-type Pokemon such as Trubbish are also better in this meta, especially with the amount of people running Mienfoo and Pawnaird in the 1760's.

 

[boo836]

No, Trubbish is still shit.

 

[Superpowerdude]

care to explain how boo836? Perhaps your not in the higher ladder so you don't see Pawnaird and Mienfoo as often but Trubbish practically hard counters both of them which is a pretty big deal and it lets it reliably set up hazards. Misdreavus was everywhere last meta and could easily use Trubbish as set up bait. Sure Trubbish lacks the ability to damage many Pokemon but providing hazard support easily on two of the most powerful Pokemon in the tier is a pretty big deal imo

 

[Goddess Briyella]

No, Trubbish is still shit.

care to explain how boo836? Perhaps your not in the higher ladder so you don't see Pawnaird and Mienfoo as often but Trubbish practically hard counters both of them which is a pretty big deal and it lets it reliably set up hazards. Misdreavus was everywhere last meta and could easily use Trubbish as set up bait. Sure Trubbish lacks the ability to damage many Pokemon but providing hazard support easily on two of the most powerful Pokemon in the tier is a pretty big deal imo

Yea, Trubbish is incredible, it's just not good for offensive momentum. What it does with Spikes and Berry Juice Recycle stall is amazing though, and not only does it beat Mienfoo and Pawniard (non-SD variants) one on one, but it also gets free turns from forcing out the likes of Spritzee, Cottonee, and any other Fighting-type except Dragon Dance Scraggy. Being weak to Abra, Drilbur, and Archen is a pain for it, but it still does well enough to get by; it's not like Trubbish works alone when it has viable Pokemon that can handle it... and it singlehandedly beats or forces out its own handful of viable Pokemon.

 

[boo836]

care to explain how boo836? Perhaps your not in the higher ladder so you don't see Pawnaird and Mienfoo as often but Trubbish practically hard counters both of them which is a pretty big deal and it lets it reliably set up hazards. Misdreavus was everywhere last meta and could easily use Trubbish as set up bait. Sure Trubbish lacks the ability to damage many Pokemon but providing hazard support easily on two of the most powerful Pokemon in the tier is a pretty big deal imo

Trubbish checks Foo, but it really struggles with Pawniard, as SD Pawn shreds through while not even being KO'd. The issue I've got with Trubbish is that it beats those two, but little else outside of those mons that don't really do that much in the first place (like Foongus) and rather serve secondary roles. Trubbish might sort of beat two top Pokemon, but it doesn't mean it deserves much of a place on a team, especially when it only provides minimal pressure, uses flimsy support that dies when Archen or Drilbur (other top two Pokes) hit the field.

@ Bri, don't forget Fletch, Timburr, ect beat it 9_9

 

[Superpowerdude]

Trubbish checks Foo, but it really struggles with Pawniard, as SD Pawn shreds through while not even being KO'd. The issue I've got with Trubbish is that it beats those two, but little else outside of those mons that don't really do that much in the first place (like Foongus) and rather serve secondary roles. Trubbish might sort of beat two top Pokemon, but it doesn't mean it deserves much of a place on a team, especially when it only provides minimal pressure, uses flimsy support that dies when Archen or Drilbur (other top two Pokes) hit the field.

@ Bri, don't forget Fletch, Timburr, ect beat it 9_9

I understand your reasons and I agree that Trubbish can't wall much either than foo and pawn but keep in mind in the 1760 stats Mienfoo is on 56% of teams and pawnaird is on 47%, this is absolutely huge because it can let you set up hazards and consistently have a switch in to those two. Sure it may suck on hyper offense teams because it kills momentum with Recylce and a Pokemon like Dwebble is a more suitable hazard setter, but on balanced and defensive teams is where Trubbish truely shines, teams that utlise trubbish in a defensive core and let it set up hazards to aid offensive team mates. Keep it also sets up on foongus and spritzee which are also quite common. It is weak to common hazard removers but it does have the ability to stay in a match for long peroids of time, letting it keep getting up hazards. All I'm trying to prove is that its not shit and its better with no missy but perhaps you said that its shit with a bit of sarcasm and you really meant that its overhyped?

 

[boo836]

No, it's shit. Shellos does Sticky Hold better. It kills momentum, is easy fodder for Drilbur or Archen, can't reliably beat Pawn, and so much more. All too often Trubbish is more of a set up opportunity than anything else. At least Dwebble sets it up earlygame and doesn't suck at lead matchups.