Serious Catalonia's independence

[dsm77773]

Today, September 27th, Europe is looking at us. Catalans vote in what is a regular election, but with a twist. If pro-independence parties get over 50% of the votes, Catalonia will start the process to independence from Spain, without Spain's authorization.
Of course, this will have its consequences. What will happen if Catalonia becames a new state? What will happen if pro-independence parties don't get enough support? Which will be the consequences in either case, in Europe and worldwide?

I don't want this thread to become a "Catalans should vote yes/no", this is to talk about consequences.

Also sorry for my English, I'm not native.

 

[X5Dragon]

Countries which have rebellious states will condemn, French Ligue one will wet their pants, the Euro will tank hard, Catalonian grandpas and grandmas will be looking for their "Spanish" pensions, Spain will never see the light of another WC semi final for the next gazillion years, everyone will have a hard time understanding the difference between Catalonian and Spanish languages....I guess Shakira will sing at the Independence declaration?

Also sorry for my English, I'm not native.

 

[Rugi]

Catalonia has what like 1/8th of Spain's population. They've also got a lot of the tourist attractions and a decently strong economy. If they become independent it will certainly be Spain that gets the short end of the stick. Not only that but if Catalonia becomes independent I'm fairly certain the Basques will become inspired to start the road to independence as well. Within a couple of years Spain(probably just Castille at that point) could be a hell of a lot smaller. Also as a Spanish speaker I can confirm that Catalan just sounds like French people speaking Spanish. It's so similar that in some Spanish news programs they don't even go through the trouble of translating it.

 

[Fluke]

So it seems the pro-independentism people want out, but they also want to still be Spaniards... I don't understand it..

 

[dsm77773]

So it seems the pro-independentism people want out, but they also want to still be Spaniards... I don't understand it..

It's complex and I'm not the most neutral guy to explain it.
Relating to Catalonia's status, there are, for now, three possible answers:
- Catalonia should be an independent state (aka pro-independentism people)
- Catalonia should be a state, but not an independent one, intead, Spain should become a federal country
- Catalonia should be left like it is now
Pro-independentism people don't want to be Spanish. And what people choosing the second answer (federalism) want is more independence, but not full independence from Spain, thus, they're not pro-independentism people (they're pro-federalism people). The thing is they don't get as much support as pro-independence parties and thus they're often forgotten by the international press, they do get some support, though.

EDIT: The vote count starts right now and expected to finish at 11pm, will post the results tomorrow

 

[Stathakis]

serious question, what will happen to la liga if catalonia gains independence??

 

[Destiny Device]

Barcelona, Espanyol and other catalonian teams won't be allowed to play (against their will), probably
Barcelona has a history of fighting for Catalonia to be independent though

 

[dsm77773]

Barcelona, Espanyol and other catalonian teams won't be allowed to play (against their will), probably
Barcelona has a history of fighting for Catalonia to be independent though

It does, especially in these recent years when independentism has gained force

 

[Bughouse]

More importantly Catalonia will not be allowed to continue with the Euro, which will hurt them in the long run much more than being dragged down by the other poorer autonomous communities like Andalucia, Extremadura, etc.

Independence makes no economic sense with that consequence looming.

 

[X5Dragon]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34372548

They won. Now what?

 

[UncleSam]

There's no way in hell Spain (or the other major European countries) will let this happen without a massive majority. 72/135 is not nearly enough to secure independence. If there were a near-universal outcry from the region that they wanted to be sovereign then I'm sure other countries would listen, but this is way too close for anyone outside of Catalonia to get behind, and as such the Spanish government will quell this easily. There's no way England or Germany or anyone else will go against Spanish national law for the sake of 53% of Catalonian voters.

In other words, nothing is going to happen. Maybe the leaders will be arrested but more likely independence will be declared illegal, and things will remain exactly as they are currently. Catalonia has no legal basis nor force of arms upon which to enforce independence, and no possible allies against the overwhelming majority of Spanish citizens, for whom losing Catalonia would be disastrous economically.

Hopefully this doesn't end with an assassination or mass imprisonment of chief secession leaders but I wouldn't rule it out; that would be a pretty stupid move by the Madrid government though, since that's basically the only way that other powers would back this movement. They will probably continue to treat this exactly as they have been treating it and just ignore it while affirming that it is in fact illegal, because there's really nothing that Catalonia can do about it.

 

[JTD783]

I'd say there is decent potential for a conflict, but it's worth mentioning that even the people of Catalonia seem unsure (as a whole) of whether or not they want to secede. The internal conflicts may prevent the independence movement from succeeding.

In my opinion there's a greater potential for conflict with Crimea voting to secede from Ukraine, as it already has the attention of many global powers.

I guess we'll just have to see how things play out.

 

[gvmgvm40]

"Here are some stories. There was an election in Costa Rica in 1948, when that country had per capita income of about $1,500. The election was technically tied: the two candidates received almost the same number of votes and there were widespread allegations of fraud, so that it was impossible to determine who in fact won. It was not clear who should decide, but the Congress took it upon itself to declare as the winner the candidate who officially received somewhat fewer votes. A civil war ensued, in which about 3,000 people were killed. At another time, there was an election in another country. The election was technically tied: the two candidates received almost the same number of votes and there were widespread allegations of fraud, so that it was impossible to determine who in fact won. It was not clear who should decide, but the Supreme Court, appointed in part by one of the candidates’ father, took it upon itself to declare as the winner the candidate who officially received somewhat fewer votes. Then everyone drove home in their SUVs to cultivate their gardens. They had SUVs and gardens because this country has per capita income of about $20,000. Whatever the reason for compliance, these facts tell us that political forces obey the results of the democratic process if the country is rich, while they may or may not if it is poor. And the difference is (...) that in poorer countries more is at stake."

-Adam Przeworski

I find it very very very unlikely that we'd see a Northern Ireland-like situation in Catalonia. Spain blocking this with legal methods and political support from the international community seems much more likely.

 

[dsm77773]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34372548

They won. Now what?

So, people saying conflict will occur are missing one detail I'm afraid, and it's the Spanish general election in December.
Not all Spanish parties would block this, some of them are open to speak with Catalonia's own authonomic government about Catalonia's status.
Obviously, the People's Party, lead by President Rajoy, are not included in this group.
But odds are the People's Party will lose representatives in the Parliament, this could lead to different scenarios. So until December, things are unclear.

IMPORTANT EDIT: Catalonia is officially starting the process to independence.

 

[Lee]

Like the recent referendum in the United Kingdom...it sounds nice in theory and those susceptible to romanticism will doubtlessly get behind it but it just doesn't work in practice and there are way too many 'But's' and 'What if's?' attached for this to ever become anything more than the drum-bangings of a political party who lack any real agenda outside of this.

 

[Vineon]

More importantly Catalonia will not be allowed to continue with the Euro, which will hurt them in the long run much more than being dragged down by the other poorer autonomous communities like Andalucia, Extremadura, etc.

What exactly can stop Catalonia from using the euro? Threats of economical embargo by a eurozone pressured by Spain? Currencies are part of a completely liberalized market to my knowledge and foreign countries that use the US dollar for example I don't believe ever had to bother asking the United States' permission to use them. Catalonia's euros won't magically change into a currency that does not exist upon the creation of the new state. The euros will remain euros and they will still deal in euros if that is the plan. They will have no control over it but quite frankly, most eurozone countries using the euro do not either.

I'm also not convinced using the euro over a local currency to be necessarily the best thing for every country. It's certainly not working all too well for the poorer countries within the eurozone that cannot devalue the currency to attract foreign investments.

There are so many countries in Europe than one more "not working in practice", as Lee says, seems utterly baseless and ridiculous. Is Spain "working"?

I encourage Catalans to go all the way. Little beats independence when comes time to legislate based on your own interests rather than being legislated upon by a foreign entity that may have different ones.

Just stand proud, believe in yourselves, stay clear of the fearmongers and remember that there are consequences to remaining in Spain as well.

 

[Bughouse]

What exactly can stop Catalonia from using the euro? Threats of economical embargo by a eurozone pressured by Spain? Currencies are part of a completely liberalized market to my knowledge and foreign countries that use the US dollar for example I don't believe ever had to bother asking the United States' permission to use them. Catalonia's euros won't magically change into a currency that does not exist upon the creation of the new state. The euros will remain euros and they will still deal in euros if that is the plan. They will have no control over it but quite frankly, most eurozone countries using the euro do not either.

Eurozone countries are allowed to print Euros (though this is tightly regulated by the ECB). If Catalonia were kicked out of the EU (which has said that that is what would happen), they would not be able to use the Euro. Period. It's honestly that simple.

Assuming the Spanish printing office is even in Catalonia (it's probably in Madrid), the EU could simply label all Euro notes printed from Catalonia to be forged/illegitimate etc. Without the backing of the EU, sure they could call their currency a Euro, but it'd be no more than a name, just like how both Australia and the US use "dollars" that are wholly separate.

Secondly, other countries that use dollars as their currency buy dollars. They can't print them (which brings the exact same monetary policy issues the EU countries already face lol) and this dollarization really only happened in countries with inflation problems - at least the monetary issues of using the Dollar are less bad than 3-figure inflation. If the EU doesn't want Catalonia to buy Euros, they will also be denied from buying Euros.

So how exactly do they keep using the Euro? It's not at all clear to me how you see that as possible.

 

[dsm77773]

More importantly Catalonia will not be allowed to continue with the Euro, which will hurt them in the long run much more than being dragged down by the other poorer autonomous communities like Andalucia, Extremadura, etc.

Independence makes no economic sense with that consequence looming.

It is not only a matter of being dragged down by poorer communities, it is also by discrimination somewhat.

What exactly can stop Catalonia from using the euro? Threats of economical embargo by a eurozone pressured by Spain? Currencies are part of a completely liberalized market to my knowledge and foreign countries that use the US dollar for example I don't believe ever had to bother asking the United States' permission to use them. Catalonia's euros won't magically change into a currency that does not exist upon the creation of the new state. The euros will remain euros and they will still deal in euros if that is the plan. They will have no control over it but quite frankly, most eurozone countries using the euro do not either.

I'm also not convinced using the euro over a local currency to be necessarily the best thing for every country. It's certainly not working all too well for the poorer countries within the eurozone that cannot devalue the currency to attract foreign investments.

There are so many countries in Europe than one more "not working in practice", as Lee says, seems utterly baseless and ridiculous. Is Spain "working"?

I encourage Catalans to go all the way. Little beats independence when comes time to legislate based on your own interests rather than being legislated upon by a foreign entity that may have different ones.

Just stand proud, believe in yourselves, stay clear of the fearmongers and remember that there are consequences to remaining in Spain as well.

While I completely agree with the last two paragraphs, well, I'm not that sure that in such a scenario we'd be able to keep the Euro.

Eurozone countries are allowed to print Euros (though this is tightly regulated by the ECB). If Catalonia were kicked out of the EU (which has said that that is what would happen), they would not be able to use the Euro. Period. It's honestly that simple.

Assuming the Spanish printing office is even in Catalonia (it's probably in Madrid), the EU could simply label all Euro notes printed from Catalonia to be forged/illegitimate etc. Without the backing of the EU, sure they could call their currency a Euro, but it'd be no more than a name, just like how both Australia and the US use "dollars" that are wholly separate.

Secondly, other countries that use dollars as their currency buy dollars. They can't print them (which brings the exact same monetary policy issues the EU countries already face lol) and this dollarization really only happened in countries with inflation problems - at least the monetary issues of using the Dollar are less bad than 3-figure inflation. If the EU doesn't want Catalonia to buy Euros, they will also be denied from buying Euros.

So how exactly do they keep using the Euro? It's not at all clear to me how you see that as possible.

And that's definetely one of the pro-independentism fears: getting kicked out of the Eurozone. This would probably hurt our economy badly, although there's still a chance everything will be OK I guess.

 

[Vineon]

Catalonia already owns euros. There is no need to buy euros with euros as their entire worth is already calculated in this currency. Montenegro dealt in euros even before being accepted into the eurozone. It is unfortunate that they would hold no control over the currency and couldn't themselves print any but it isn't required to use it, especially if it is planned as a transition to either being accepted into the eurozone eventually, or coming up with a new currency which certainly isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially for Catalonia considering it seems to be in decent shape economically.

Besides, I would also assume eurozone countries, as they use the same currency must submit to some rules when it comes to printing new money. They don't have complete control over that. Otherwise, Greece would have just printed a whole lot of that shared currency to get out of its predicament.

If the fear of getting kicked out of the eurozone is legitimate, the fear of not being able to use the euro doesn't seem to be to me.

 

[Vineon]

And that's definetely one of the pro-independentism fears: getting kicked out of the Eurozone. This would probably hurt our economy badly, although there's still a chance everything will be OK I guess.

At least that's a more sensible fear than "oh no, our football club won't be able to play in the Spanish league".

 

[dsm77773]

At least that's a more sensible fear than "oh no, our football club won't be able to play in the Spanish league".

Hey, I'm a Barcelona fan too, but hell, some things are more important than football you know.

 

[Vineon]

Speaking of that:

https://www.google.ca/search?q=foot...ved=0CAYQ_AUoAWoVChMI_5mC3depyAIViF4eCh2O2Qxs

 

[destinyunknown]

Catalonia has what like 1/8th of Spain's population. They've also got a lot of the tourist attractions and a decently strong economy. If they become independent it will certainly be Spain that gets the short end of the stick. Not only that but if Catalonia becomes independent I'm fairly certain the Basques will become inspired to start the road to independence as well. Within a couple of years Spain(probably just Castille at that point) could be a hell of a lot smaller. Also as a Spanish speaker I can confirm that Catalan just sounds like French people speaking Spanish. It's so similar that in some Spanish news programs they don't even go through the trouble of translating it.

It's because the Catalonian spoken nowadays is pretty much an invented language. Catalonian pretty much disappeared in the 15th century, so when some people tried to bring it back in the 19-20th century, they didn't have words for many modern stuff. So they took spanish vocabulary and changed it to sound like french, in the end getting silly stuff. For example, the word ''chocolate'' which of course didnt exist in catalonian, and which is also ''chocolate'' in Spanish, Catalonians took it and changed it to ''Xocolata'' just to look like a different language (the X had never been used in original Catalonian for the ''ch'' sound).

As for the economy, Catalonian products/companies have been given a lot of promotion and advantageous trait over the last 100 years, so if their economy is good, it's just because the government has always tried to give them an advantage over foreign products (which have always been better btw). If Catalonia were to separate from Spain, most of the companies established there would flee (many have done so already over the last months), and even those that stayed in Catalonia would lose their main clients (Spain). So the economy would definitely NOT be good. Same can be said about tourism, as spaniards would rather spend their holidays elsewhere.

 

[dsm77773]

It's because the Catalonian spoken nowadays is pretty much an invented language. Catalonian pretty much disappeared in the 15th century, so when some people tried to bring it back in the 19-20th century, they didn't have words for many modern stuff. So they took spanish vocabulary and changed it to sound like french, in the end getting silly stuff. For example, the word ''chocolate'' which of course didnt exist in catalonian, and which is also ''chocolate'' in Spanish, Catalonians took it and changed it to ''Xocolata'' just to look like a different language (the X had never been used in original Catalonian for the ''ch'' sound).

As for the economy, Catalonian products/companies have been given a lot of promotion and advantageous trait over the last 100 years, so if their economy is good, it's just because the government has always tried to give them an advantage over foreign products (which have always been better btw). If Catalonia were to separate from Spain, most of the companies established there would flee (many have done so already over the last months), and even those that stayed in Catalonia would lose their main clients (Spain). So the economy would definitely NOT be good. Same can be said about tourism, as spaniards would rather spend their holidays elsewhere.

Sorry, WHAT?
Catalan is definetely NOT an invented language and it NEVER disappeared. Lol until the 15-16th century Catalans didn't even speak Spanish. Although the language was intended to disappear during the 18th century and especially from 1939-1975.

 

[Bughouse]

True, they already have a good amount of Euros, as it's the currency they've been using.

However, there are several practical problems. Catalonia could happily use the currency for their own transactions, just as they could use seashells or rocks. There's no issues there. The issues are all international, very important given how much of Catalonia's business is internationally focused.

1) Currency has a lifespan. As a result the EU is constantly printing new bills to replace old bills that are no longer usable. I believe Euros last longer than dollars, but US money has a lifespan of between 5-10 years depending on denomination. Beyond this lifespan point - and possibly much sooner depending on how new their Euros are, Catalonia will need to create their own currency or start buying (which would likely be made impossible).

2) EU can print new bills and coins with modified designs and do trade-ins (this has already been happening throughout 2015 in the new Europa series). Don't offer trade-ins to Catalonians and refuse the use of old bills after a certain date. EU countries are already used to this procedure, as they all did it quite recently when they traded in their old national currencies for Euros and then made old bills invalid.

3) Less effective, but cheaper and easier, the EU could offer a trade-in program just for bills printed in Spain (which are /probably/ most of the bills in Catalonia), which are marked by a V in their serial number. Allow other Spaniards (and other EU members) to trade in their V series bills for a new Spanish A series and mark V series bills as invalid.

All of these would have the effect of making the Euros Catalonia already has useless for international transactions as "Euros." This does at least mean they have a usable currency and don't need to instantly spend money to create their own, but they still will need to eventually, since money wears out (see step 1).



But beyond all this I chuckle at how much Catalonia whines about the economics. They get shorted €1,500 per capita (if we're being generous and using their numbers, not Spain's numbers) by helping out poorer parts of Spain. In the US? New Jersey gets shorted $3,900 per capita in federal taxes paid vs federal spending received. Mississippi gets an extra $7,900 per capita. I don't see New Jersey trying to secede because the US is stealing their money to help Mississippi. And this pattern is seen all over the world from richer areas to poorer areas, often in much worse terms than Catalonia.

If they want to secede for language and culture, whatever I guess. They do build human pyramids so clearly they need to be independent /s. But framing it economically is silly. If they deserve to secede on economics then Germany should leave the EU, New Jersey should leave the US, and Bavaria should leave Germany, etc.

The resulting geography is laughable and in no one's best interest.