Serious US Election Thread (read post #2014)

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I also know a vote for a third party or an abstain at the top is a way of protesting - of showing your dissatisfaction with the two candidates who are pretty bad. but in order to not vote in this election, you'll need to believe one of two things: that either a) it makes actually zero - none at all - difference who is president of the u.s vis a vis the passing of policies and form of government you find preferable or b) that any difference that does exist matters less than the long-term benefit that would be gained from the aggregate protest votes of abstain or for a third party.
I don't necessarily believe either of those things.

I believe the Democratic Party, if its candidate wins--especially by a margin--will, in essence, continue to remain the same for all intents and purposes. The same goes for the Republican Party. If the Democratic Party loses, it will realize that even though Trump is terrible, and yes he is worse than Clinton by a great margin, that they have alienated a core portion of their members, or those who would normally vote for them. The Republican Party would hopefully realize the same if Trump loses.

Trump would definitely be bad. In your reply to the other person regarding gross misunderstanding they displayed of the Twitter message (your reply did better than I could hope), you mentioned the "gentry types" wouldn't suffer regardless of outcome. If Trump wins, and depending on which of his bigoted policies could come to be, it will be very difficult for me personally, and most definitely for a great number of others. Honestly, it makes me very anxious--very sick--thinking of him giving an acceptance speech in November.

But, as I see it, a vote for the Democratic Party is rewarding them for their gross behavior in this past primary. Similarly, I'd hope Republicans voters would see voting for Trump to be rewarding the Republicans for their gross behavior--not only in this primary, but throughout the Obama administration (and hopefully beyond).

Pyritie

You're looking at the message literally. It's not meant to be taken literally. Essentially, minorities (race, religion, sexuality, gender, low socioeconomic status, etc) would face a very strong attack on a very many number of fronts, which would put their livelihoods (be it their actual life, or just their quality of life) at great stake if Trump wins. On the other hand, the "gentry types" Shrug mentions--e.g., white, heterosexual middle-class American--would endure little hardship from Trump's policies.
 
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Bass

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No they really don't want to run on change. Running away from a successful Clinton presidency is a large part of why Gore lost.

Obama has net positive favorability. There is no reason for Hillary, who is less popular, to run away from status quo.
Just stop. If you really believe that, then you are really living in a bubble. The people who believe that the status quo is great under Obama already support Clinton. So you know, this accounts for around 25% of the electorate maybe. Clinton will need support from another 25% that doesn't think things are peachy.
 

Chou Toshio

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No they really don't want to run on change. Running away from a successful Clinton presidency is a large part of why Gore lost.

Obama has net positive favorability. There is no reason for Hillary, who is less popular, to run away from status quo.
Obama ran on a platform of change; and anyone who has been following him knows that he drastically struggled and drastically made concessions on basically every non-military initiative he achieved. No one, including Obama, should be satisfied with things that they are now-- not the left, not the right.

I don't see why "The previous administration has lead us well, out of a very dark hour of our recent history-- that said, we all know, we have a LOT more work to do."isn't legite

It's not even as if Hillary, Obama, et all are even denying that sentiment or haven't said it themselves-- they have said it, they know it.

So we should really stop with at least the idiotic "America is already great" tags and hats and the rest.




In the last page, people have constantly talked about how Bernie and Hillary share stances on the majority of issues. That's true, and that's why I'll vote Hillary. That said, there is one very, very, very important point that Trump and Bernie platforms agree on-- that things are shit.

Hillary and Bernie may have similar end games, but Trump is the one closer to Bernie at the starting point.

For the voter who is not sophisticated in economics, policy, education [read: most], and for people in general-- it's a LOT easier to see the starting point that is your reality around you than to agree on what they end game should be.
 
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This is not true. You seem to be under the impression that the only thing that matters is the end result -- who becomes president -- and not that there's also a ton of influence with the information leading up to and including that end result. Two big things that have happened this election are third parties getting a ton more interest than they have in past years, even though it's still relatively small, and the massive divide in the DNC between hillary and sanders supporters. Even if Hillary wins, the fact that those two things even happened will be cause for concern and will help influence something.

Consider the UK elections last year. We have two big parties, Labour and Conservatives, and two smaller ones, Liberal Democrats and the newer UKIP. In 2010, Lib Dems got 23% of the vote and 57/650 seats, and UKIP got 3% and 0 seats. Now look at 2015. Lib dems shrunk down to 8% while UKIP surged to 12.6%. Yes, they still only won 1 seat, but that's still a huge % increase for what was effectively a protest vote. Did anyone expect them to win? Not really. Did that result have an influence anyway? Absolutely -- it's basically the reason why Cameron even suggested Brexit in the first place, as a sort of "ok, we'll have a vote just to make you lot shut up". It later blew up in his face but that's a different story.

Even if third parties gain a ton of support I still have very little faith in either of them winning, but all of the attention they're getting and how they're receiving a significant amount of growth will be setting off alarm bells saying "we should probably take a serious look at this instead of just ignoring them for another four years".



I still fail to see how this is a "literal life and death" situation for anyone simply because they ticked a different box. One of the big two parties will end up winning anyway (and even if they didn't, hey, you won) and we'll be stuck with either horrible option #1 or horrible option #2 for four years. The president doesn't have absolute power to do whatever they hell they want, especially in trump's case where the vast majority of congress hate his guts.

edit: also "vote for X or you will die" is a stupid as hell thing for anyone in a first world democratic country to think; what is this, turkey?
The American system is not kind to third parties, unlike other governments around the world which limits the effictveness of voting for one in the PRESIDENTIAL election mainly because of the electoral college and that winning the presidency is based on the most votes, not who has the most seats in congress. That's why some people feel like voting third party in a presidential election is "throwing" away your vote because essentially if you're liberal or conservative it's better to vote democrat or republican because Supreme Court nominess and other policy positions will more likely be of your values and beliefs and they have the highest chance of winning then a third party.
 
The American system is not kind to third parties, unlike other governments around the world which limits the effictveness of voting for one in the PRESIDENTIAL election mainly because of the electoral college and that winning the presidency is based on the most votes, not who has the most seats in congress. That's why some people feel like voting third party in a presidential election is "throwing" away your vote because essentially if you're liberal or conservative it's better to vote democrat or republican because Supreme Court nominess and other policy positions will more likely be of your values and beliefs and they have the highest chance of winning then a third party.
So, what would need to be changed so third parties would be a more "worthy" choice?
 
The American system is not kind to third parties, unlike other governments around the world which limits the effictveness of voting for one in the PRESIDENTIAL election mainly because of the electoral college and that winning the presidency is based on the most votes, not who has the most seats in congress. That's why some people feel like voting third party in a presidential election is "throwing" away your vote because essentially if you're liberal or conservative it's better to vote democrat or republican because Supreme Court nominess and other policy positions will more likely be of your values and beliefs and they have the highest chance of winning then a third party.
Pretty much. It shows that our system is very flawed, because unfortunately, voting for the lesser of two evils is getting us nowhere.

Edit: On another note, we all know about the Wikileaks concerning that the DNC definitely made measures to undermine Bernie's campaign (and other stuff too, I guess), right?

Well, apparently, rather than doing the right thing, and apologizing for undermining our democracy, Obama, Biden, and the DNC wants to retaliate against Wikileaks, calling the online database activist organization "hi tech terrorists".

I'm sure in the coming months, independent journalist organizations will cover this (while the mainstream corporate media will put their hands over their ears and eyes, and say it isn't happening).

I'm hoping this is a joke, because if not, this will decide the election, and not in Hillary's favor.

At least close to 1800 people have now retweeted this, and you can bet your Shiny HA Mewtwo (if you got one) that this is only going to get more attention as this throw down between activists and authority takes place.

As for me, I am furious, and I am seriously face-palming. In a time where the DNC needs to come to the independent Bernie supporters, and earn their votes, and where Obama could be showing leadership by taking measures to ensure that the fiasco this election has been will never happen again, and perhaps even applaud Wikileaks for their patriotism, it seems that the DNC wants to perhaps shut down Wikileaks, make an example of them to any hacktivists that might attempt to undermine their corrupt rule, and then continue business as usual.


This would create a huge, scary, damaging effect on democracy, because it would create a perquisite where the government can go after and punish any individuals who reveal information that they don't want the citizenry to know about, no matter how bad those wrong doings are.

If I could, I'd slap Obama and Biden silly, and ask what the fuck are they thinking! They need Bernie voters on their side, and this will only infuriate them more to vote for anyone but the Democratic nominee, and damage what little honor and integrity the DNC has left! If I were them, I'd drop the issue, and apologize to Wikileaks! Do they want Trump to win?! They might as well endorse Trump while they're at it! I'm starting to wonder if Trump is part of the establishment in secret, and that he is the next individual anointed by the oligarchy to be their next figurehead! They cannot continue to demand unity while pulling this shit!

If Wikileaks are terrorists, then the DNC is an organization of traitors to democracy. It is clear which is worse, considering the DNC is supposed to make this as democratic a process as possible, not give one candidate the advantage, while screwing the other!
 
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Chou Toshio

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I came to this in my Facebook NewsFeed, but it is a POWERFUL interview article: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/trump-us-politics-poor-whites/

Probably the most nuanced (or the only nuanced piece?) I've read about why people are voting Trump. Author of a book on poor white America, a Yale Law grad who is himself from a very poor upbringing answers questions about why "his people" are coming out big this year-- and what amazes, and terrifies him about this election.

Some of my favorite quotes:
"The simple answer is that these people–my people–are really struggling, and there hasn’t been a single political candidate who speaks to those struggles in a long time. Donald Trump at least tries.

What many don’t understand is how truly desperate these places are, and we’re not talking about small enclaves or a few towns–we’re talking about multiple states where a significant chunk of the white working class struggles to get by. Heroin addiction is rampant. In my medium-sized Ohio county last year, deaths from drug addiction outnumbered deaths from natural causes. The average kid will live in multiple homes over the course of her life, experience a constant cycle of growing close to a “stepdad” only to see him walk out on the family, know multiple drug users personally, maybe live in a foster home for a bit (or at least in the home of an unofficial foster like an aunt or grandparent), watch friends and family get arrested, and on and on."

"I know exactly what you mean. My grandma (Mamaw) recognized this instinctively. She said that most people were probably prejudiced, but they had to be secretive about it. “We”–meaning hillbillies–“are the only group of people you don’t have to be ashamed to look down upon.” "

"The “why” is really difficult, but I have a few thoughts. The first is that humans appear to have some need to look down on someone; there’s just a basic tribalistic impulse in all of us. And if you’re an elite white professional, working class whites are an easy target: you don’t have to feel guilty for being a racist or a xenophobe. By looking down on the hillbilly, you can get that high of self-righteousness and superiority without violating any of the moral norms of your own tribe. So your own prejudice is never revealed for what it is."

"This is where, to me, there’s a lot of ignorance around “Teflon Don.” No one seems to understand why conventional blunders do nothing to Trump. But in a lot of ways, what elites see as blunders people back home see as someone who–finally–conducts themselves in a relatable way. He shoots from the hip; he’s not constantly afraid of offending someone; he’ll get angry about politics; he’ll call someone a liar or a fraud. This is how a lot of people in the white working class actually talk about politics, and even many elites recognize how refreshing and entertaining it can be! So it’s not really a blunder as much as it is a rich, privileged Wharton grad connecting to people back home through style and tone."

"Viewed like this, all the talk about “political correctness” isn’t about any specific substantive point, as much as it is a way of expanding the scope of acceptable behavior. People don’t want to believe they have to speak like Obama or Clinton to participate meaningfully in politics, because most of us don’t speak like Obama or Clinton."

@Conservatives:

"I think you hit the nail right on the head: we need to judge less and understand more. It’s so easy for conservatives to use “culture” as an ending point in a discussion–an excuse to rationalize their worldview and then move on–rather than a starting point."

"But to speak “culture” and then move on is a total copout, and there are public policy solutions to draw from... These are tough, tough problems, but they’re not totally immune to policy interventions. Neither are they entirely addressable by government. It’s just complicated ... But I think this unwillingness to deal with tough issues–or worse, to pretend they’ll all go away if we can hit 4 percent growth targets–is a significant failure of modern conservative politics. And looking at the political landscape, this failure may very well have destroyed the conservative movement as we used to know it."

@Liberals:
"Well, it’s almost the flip side: stop pretending that every problem is a structural problem, something imposed on the poor from the outside. I see a significant failure on the Left to understand how these problems develop. They see rising divorce rates as the natural consequence of economic stress. Undoubtedly, that’s partially true. Some of these family problems run far deeper. "

"Liberals have to get more comfortable with dealing with the poor as they actually are. I admire their refusal to look down on the least among us, but at some level, that can become an excuse to never really look at the problem at all."

"Since Hillbilly Elegy came out, I’ve gotten so many messages along the lines of: “Thank you for being sympathetic but also honest.”
I think that’s the only way to have this conversation and to make the necessary changes: sympathy and honesty. It’s not easy, especially in our politically polarized world, to recognize both the structural and the cultural barriers that so many poor kids face. But I think that if you don’t recognize both, you risk being heartless or condescending, and often both. "



Finally, about Trump's speech:

"Well, I think the speech itself was a perfect microcosm of why I love and am terrified of Donald Trump. On the one hand, he criticized the elites and actually acknowledge the hurt of so many working class voters. After so many years of Republican politicians refusing to even talk about factory closures, Trump’s message is an oasis in the desert. But of course he spent way too much time appealing to people’s fears, and he offered zero substance for how to improve their lives. It was Trump at his best and worst.

My biggest fear with Trump is that, because of the failures of the Republican and Democratic elites, the bar for the white working class is too low. They’re willing to listen to Trump about rapist immigrants and banning all Muslims because other parts of his message are clearly legitimate. A lot of people think Trump is just the first to appeal to the racism and xenophobia that were already there, but I think he’s making the problem worse.

The other big problem I have with Trump is that he has dragged down our entire political conversation. It’s not just that he inflames the tribalism of the Right; it’s that he encourages the worst impulses of the Left. In the past few weeks, I’ve heard from so many of my elite friends some version of, “Trump is the racist leader all of these racist white people deserve.” These comments almost always come from white progressives who know literally zero culturally working class Americans. And I’m always left thinking: if this is the quality of thought of a Harvard Law graduate, then our society is truly doomed. In a world of Trump, we’ve abandoned the pretense of persuasion. The November election strikes me as little more than a referendum on whose tribe is bigger.
 
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shaian

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If I could, I'd slap Obama and Biden silly, and ask what the fuck are they thinking! They need Bernie voters on their side, and this will only infuriate them more to vote for anyone but the Democratic nominee, and damage what little honor and integrity the DNC has left! If I were them, I'd drop the issue, and apologize to Wikileaks!
i'll bite.

why would you have them apologize?
 
i'll bite.

why would you have them apologize?
Oh, I don't know. Maybe because calling them "terrorists" was completely wrong. Bernie supporters had every right to know that the Democratic Establishment had no intention of allowing Bernie to win. And now the, what was the term, the DNC's birds are coming home to roost? As far as I'm concerned, they have no right to complain about the privacy concerns, because they didn't have to rig things against Bernie. They made their choice.

At the very least, they owe a huge apology to Bernie Sanders and those who supported him. It might show them that the DNC at least is willing to take responsibility for their stupid dogmatic actions.
 
I have no doubt that the DNC wanted Hillary to win but the email in question that "proves" that Bernie was being rigged against was from late May when he'd already basically lost and everyone was calling for him to dropout. People thought him still being in the race was hurting Hillary instead of helping her pivot towards the General Election when everybody basically saw she'd win the nomination with more pledged delegates. If the email was from fall 2015 then we'd be really talking (oh and btw this email was after months of Sanders degrading DWS's character and calling on her to resign she had a right to be a little pissed)


I actually think the thing "rigged" against Sanders was the debate schedule being mostly on weekends and stuff lol which actually DID limit viewership, everything else the voters decided though whether you wanna believe it or not cause the DNC can't just rig votes.
 
I have no doubt that the DNC wanted Hillary to win but the email in question that "proves" that Bernie was being rigged against was from late May when he'd already basically lost and everyone was calling for him to dropout. People thought him still being in the race was hurting Hillary instead of helping her pivot towards the General Election when everybody basically saw she'd win the nomination with more pledged delegates. If the email was from fall 2015 then we'd be really talking (oh and btw this email was after months of Sanders degrading DWS's character and calling on her to resign she had a right to be a little pissed)


I actually think the thing "rigged" against Sanders was the debate schedule being mostly on weekends and stuff lol which actually DID limit viewership, everything else the voters decided though whether you wanna believe it or not cause the DNC can't just rig votes.
If only the only thing rigged was the debate schedule. Not helping matters is that poll workers were also poorly trained, and since poll workers are the first line of defense for facilitating democratic results, that alone is disturbing. And there is actually evidence that the electoral machines were hacked, and this is being brought up in a lawsuit. There is a reason why electronic voting machines have been banned in other countries.

Whether the DNC actually knew are had any role in the last one is unknown. It could be hackers hired by wealthy campaign contributors or some other party that wanted Hillary to be the nominee for all we know!

One might also argue that DWS's actions, even if they were in reaction to Sander's call for her to resign, just proved that she was too flawed to have any authority. Any chance to take the moral high ground and prove one's fearful assertions as incorrect is a good thing. Instead, she just proved that she and the DNC leadership is at least judgmentally flawed.
 
I'm glad DWS since I don't really think she was that good of a chair and the Democrats can look towards better chair leadership.


The fact is though more people voted for Hillary over Bernie Sanders though and claiming that the voting machines were hacked because there's NO WAY Hillary would've gotten more votes then Bernie is just delusional and conspiracy like at this point. Sorry. He lost because he couldn't get minorites (particularly African American voters) and voters over 39 and winning the white male vote doesn't work in the diverse Democratic primary.
 
I'm glad DWS since I don't really think she was that good of a chair and the Democrats can look towards better chair leadership.


The fact is though more people voted for Hillary over Bernie Sanders though and claiming that the voting machines were hacked because there's NO WAY Hillary would've gotten more votes then Bernie is just delusional and conspiracy like at this point. Sorry. He lost because he couldn't get minorites (particularly African American voters) and voters over 39 and winning the white male vote doesn't work in the diverse Democratic primary.
Maybe rather than shrugging it off as a nutty conspiracy theory isn't such a good idea if you aren't even going to look into the claims, and look at the evidence like I have. I even have posted some videos somewhere in this very thread.

And (surprisingly), Bernie hasn't said anything about the hacked voting machines, for whatever reason. He might not even be aware. The corporate news media hasn't said a peep about it, which is typical, since it would make Hillary's nomination look possibly illegitimate. That, and their owners seem to love how corrupt our government is, and keeping people as unaware as possible.

And we can throw out the 3 million person lead, since the hacked voting machines have pretty much made that factor an unknown, and possibly false. With the poll workers being improperly trained, and the hacked voting machines, for all we know, every state that Hillary won in could have thousands, maybe millions of thrown out votes for Bernie. Maybe he would have still lost, maybe it would have been a tie if not for the super delegates, but either watch the videos and read the articles, and debunk them point by point, and prove my fears wrong, or don't ever use the words delusional or conspiracy again. It is annoyingly arrogantly naive and condescending, even though that is probably not your intention.

It is possible that his failure to reach out to African American voters and other minorities would have still cost him the election, but it seems to me and many others that someone didn't want to give him the chance to loose fair and square, and so decided the primary for themselves.

But thinking that the primary was run properly is naive.
 
This is not true. You seem to be under the impression that the only thing that matters is the end result -- who becomes president -- and not that there's also a ton of influence with the information leading up to and including that end result. Two big things that have happened this election are third parties getting a ton more interest than they have in past years, even though it's still relatively small, and the massive divide in the DNC between hillary and sanders supporters. Even if Hillary wins, the fact that those two things even happened will be cause for concern and will help influence something.

Consider the UK elections last year. We have two big parties, Labour and Conservatives, and two smaller ones, Liberal Democrats and the newer UKIP. In 2010, Lib Dems got 23% of the vote and 57/650 seats, and UKIP got 3% and 0 seats. Now look at 2015. Lib dems shrunk down to 8% while UKIP surged to 12.6%. Yes, they still only won 1 seat, but that's still a huge % increase for what was effectively a protest vote. Did anyone expect them to win? Not really. Did that result have an influence anyway? Absolutely -- it's basically the reason why Cameron even suggested Brexit in the first place, as a sort of "ok, we'll have a vote just to make you lot shut up". It later blew up in his face but that's a different story.

Even if third parties gain a ton of support I still have very little faith in either of them winning, but all of the attention they're getting and how they're receiving a significant amount of growth will be setting off alarm bells saying "we should probably take a serious look at this instead of just ignoring them for another four years".
You're comparing a parliamentary system to the US's system. That's the first major issue here. The president isn't decided by the Congress, and you don't really see multi-party coalitions

I still fail to see how this is a "literal life and death" situation for anyone simply because they ticked a different box. One of the big two parties will end up winning anyway (and even if they didn't, hey, you won) and we'll be stuck with either horrible option #1 or horrible option #2 for four years. The president doesn't have absolute power to do whatever they hell they want, especially in trump's case where the vast majority of congress hate his guts.

edit: also "vote for X or you will die" is a stupid as hell thing for anyone in a first world democratic country to think; what is this, turkey?
Gonna take a specific example here: the affordable healthcare act. Alot of my relatives say it didn't do enough, could've been better, and do the "both parties are corrupt" attitude for voting.

Our two candidates have specific positions on the ACA. Trump is going to get rid of it, with the help of a republican congress. Clinton will keep it, and it will continue to be challenged in the Supreme Court for eternity and back.

Now, whether you think the ACA is good, or should be changed in some specific way, or support single payer, the ACA currently provides insurance for millions of Americans. People that otherwise, would likely be without health insurance due to its high costs, or be paying much more on it. Now, that demographic the ACA covers is mostly going to be lower income, and generally will proportionally include more minorities.

For someone in that situation, they don't get to say "Oh, both parties are the same, either one winning is fine". Because one of them means they can afford to go to the doctor, and the other takes their insurance from them.

If you're generally well-off, and had healthcare insurance covered before the ACA (keeping with the specific ACA example), then this isn't something you have to worry about. You're freer to vote 3rd party, because a republican presidency doesn't affect whether you get healthcare coverage. And again, proportionally, whites are going to be much more represented in that group (and Asians, but we get a nice heaping dose of "anchor baby", "ban the Muslims", and "give South Korea nukes", etc.) .

Hence the statement you found offensive.

Basically, even if you think the difference between the parties is small, small is a world of a difference for someone on the edge economically, medically, etc.

I understand if you want 3rd parties to grow. And if you want the system to change. But that's not happening at the national election. You have to start bottom-up on this. If you're just going come out every 4 years and complain about the national election, you're not doing anything to change the system. You need to be active during the mid-terms, and before that, locally, from the state to city to the neighborhood.

Not sure if you were a Sanders fan, but your argument reminds me of one, so I'll just say this: Sanders started off in the civil rights movement, and ran for mayor of Burlington after gathering decent local support and having ran politically a few times before. And that happened because of the general political climate in Vermont favoring a more progressive lean, because there WAS A MOVEMENT already. It was that position that let him eventually go for House of Representatives, and from there to the Senate.

You think Bernie Sanders the mayor of Burlington gets anything done on the scale that he managed this primary season?

You campaigning and being active in your immediate scene can very well have a major impact in introducing a 3rd party to the area, and from there provide a platform for the city, which gives you an avenue into state positions, etc.
 
Another example of small differences matterng:

Alot of muslims I know disliked Bush for the screw-ups in Iraq, but across the aisle, there's a respect for his actions immediately post 9-11, when he came out and made it a point that Muslims shouldn't be discriminated against for 9/11.

Rhetoric matters.
 
Unfortunately, I agree. Unless either Gary Johnson or Jill Stein get into the debates, there is zero chance of either of them winning, and Trump is a very real threat to the security of this country. You can blame the electoral college system as well for basically making the "if you don't vote for this person, you're voting for this person" effect, and this country will need to seriously think about switching to a popular vote system that can't be exploited like the electoral voting system can. The events in 2000 should have resulted in this immediately.

You don't have to like or trust Hillary. I despise her guts. But there is a time for revolution, and now is not the time. And we also need to focus on local elections to prove that third parties are viable. It's either that, or living under an oligarchy.

And if she fulfills her promise for campaign finance reform, and even goes one further, and applies it to all levels of government (which I highly doubt, because they want us to butt heads with them), that will make change so much easier. Trump is guaranteed to protect Citizens United. He's also a delusional climate change denier.

And I'm not afraid to admit I hate having to vote for her. And I'm only knowingly voting for the lesser of two evils once, just to prove a point.
 
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Just stop. If you really believe that, then you are really living in a bubble. The people who believe that the status quo is great under Obama already support Clinton. So you know, this accounts for around 25% of the electorate maybe. Clinton will need support from another 25% that doesn't think things are peachy.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Since the election-season started, Obama's approval ratings have only continued to rise. As of 7/29/2016, his approval rating sits at 54%, the highest since January 2013, when he was re-inaugurated.

Complacency will get the Clinton campaign nowhere, but the idea that the electorate dislikes Obama, or that Clinton is somehow mistaken in associating herself with the president, is ridiculous

Between 95% of the media out there, whether it be mainstream for the easy ratings, conservative as opposition to the current administration, or more out there anti-establishment sites that are naturally, well, anti-establishment, you're gonna get alot of doom and gloom peddled to you.


Jon Stewart's speech starting from the relevant part. Basically discusses that the idea that the world is ending every day is utter bs.

Clinton needs to be addressing concerns that are happening, but the idea that aligning with Obama is bad for the campaign is ridiculous.

Give most people a time machine, and they wouldn't really go back. It was only a little more than a year ago that gay marriage wasnt legal across the USA. The world as a whole is progressing.

This isn't me trying to dismiss the concerns that come up, believe, Clinton isn't my ideal candidate, but the situation as a whole has been improving overall, and will continue to improve overall
 
DWS was pretty terrible any way you look at it.

Abandoning what had been a successful 50 State Campaign, being generally less ambitious with plans of getting more Democrats into political seats, and basically giving the RNC free rein over a bunch of house seats and the vast majority of state legislatures across the country
 
I don't necessarily believe either of those things.

I believe the Democratic Party, if its candidate wins--especially by a margin--will, in essence, continue to remain the same for all intents and purposes. The same goes for the Republican Party. If the Democratic Party loses, it will realize that even though Trump is terrible, and yes he is worse than Clinton by a great margin, that they have alienated a core portion of their members, or those who would normally vote for them. The Republican Party would hopefully realize the same if Trump loses.

Trump would definitely be bad. In your reply to the other person regarding gross misunderstanding they displayed of the Twitter message (your reply did better than I could hope), you mentioned the "gentry types" wouldn't suffer regardless of outcome. If Trump wins, and depending on which of his bigoted policies could come to be, it will be very difficult for me personally, and most definitely for a great number of others. Honestly, it makes me very anxious--very sick--thinking of him giving an acceptance speech in November.

But, as I see it, a vote for the Democratic Party is rewarding them for their gross behavior in this past primary. Similarly, I'd hope Republicans voters would see voting for Trump to be rewarding the Republicans for their gross behavior--not only in this primary, but throughout the Obama administration (and hopefully beyond).

Pyritie

You're looking at the message literally. It's not meant to be taken literally. Essentially, minorities (race, religion, sexuality, gender, low socioeconomic status, etc) would face a very strong attack on a very many number of fronts, which would put their livelihoods (be it their actual life, or just their quality of life) at great stake if Trump wins. On the other hand, the "gentry types" Shrug mentions--e.g., white, heterosexual middle-class American--would endure little hardship from Trump's policies.
The party platform as a whole is one of the most progressive in the history of the party. What historical trend or precedent is there to say that Trump winning this election would force the DNC to move left?

The Reagan-Bush years had democrats put up progressive candidates only to be DESTROYED in the landslide national elections. Whether you agree with Bill Clinton's position and policies as a President, the DNC's shift closer to the center was a major part in it being viable for national elections again. The gradual shift left has only happened because the DNC has seen results from it in recent years.

What's to stop the DNC from shifting right after a lost election this November? Erasing the concessions Bernie got for the party platform, and his effort to pull the party to the left.

Or they might not even change at all. In the post 2012 election, the GOP released this report

http://goproject.gop.com/

In it, they thoroughly discuss the reasons behind their loss, as opposed to examples of popular and successful RNC governors, congressmen, etc. The report calls for greater appeals to minorities, youth, women, basically a softening/removal of the type of rhetoric from the 2012 GOP primaries.

Yeah, that totally happened, right?
 

Bass

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Since the election-season started, Obama's approval ratings have only continued to rise. As of 7/29/2016, his approval rating sits at 54%, the highest since January 2013, when he was re-inaugurated.

Complacency will get the Clinton campaign nowhere, but the idea that the electorate dislikes Obama, or that Clinton is somehow mistaken in associating herself with the president, is ridiculous

Between 95% of the media out there, whether it be mainstream for the easy ratings, conservative as opposition to the current administration, or more out there anti-establishment sites that are naturally, well, anti-establishment, you're gonna get alot of doom and gloom peddled to you.


Jon Stewart's speech starting from the relevant part. Basically discusses that the idea that the world is ending every day is utter bs.

Clinton needs to be addressing concerns that are happening, but the idea that aligning with Obama is bad for the campaign is ridiculous.

Give most people a time machine, and they wouldn't really go back. It was only a little more than a year ago that gay marriage wasnt legal across the USA. The world as a whole is progressing.

This isn't me trying to dismiss the concerns that come up, believe, Clinton isn't my ideal candidate, but the situation as a whole has been improving overall, and will continue to improve overall
Nice strawman. Approval Rating tells nothing, if I were asked "approve / disapprove" in a poll, I would go with the former since I by and large agree with Obama's policies. That ignores the fact that there are still many policies that I disagree with him on, and most importantly, I think we should drastically improve on some of his policies. Many Sanders supporters don't really strongly disapprove on Obama's policies (well, aside from the TPP), but think that we need more progressive versions of policies he has started (like the Affordable Care Act). If this weren't the case, you wouldn't see questions as to whether we should continue Obama's policies or have more liberal ones in our exit polling. As to which candidate these voters supported between Clinton and Sanders, I don't need to spell that out to you now do I?

Or to put it another way, a 54% approval rating for Obama does not imply that 54% are satisfied with the status quo. That is what my post was actually about and why I am calling you out for using a strawman. It's extremely frustrating to see people trumpet these numbers as if everything was fine and that any discontent was only among conservative voters. That's what I mean by "living in the bubble". For example, I think the ACA is better than whatever healthcare system we had before, but now pretending that it can't be realistically improved and giving the middle finger to the public option is total horseshit. On climate change, Obama and Clinton look wonderful in comparison to their conterparts on the right who outright deny the science, but that doesn't give them the pass on supporting fracking and their unwillingness to put a legit price on carbon. Every reminder of the fact that many other developed countries are doing these things makes me literally facepalm. As a progressive I expect my elected officials who claim to be such to actually evolve with the times, but instead what I am seeing is a fear of being bold while the so-called "conservative" candidate is actually running his entire campaign on changing the status quo, for better or worse. This nonsense is tantamount to allowing a team of people in an organization who are accused of corruption to conduct their own investigation and letting off the hook to when they deem themselves to be innocent. What a shock! When half of a party's base is telling them that we need to move further to the left of the status quo and you just ignore them because you are so far up your own ass, well they have only but themselves to blame if they lose to a guy who acts like he belongs in the loony bin in November.
 
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Bughouse

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Except Clinton was not being told by half of the party's base to move further left. She won very handily among democrats who have historically been engaged in the political process. She lost among people who have historically been disengaged in politics, most of whom self identify as independents anyway, and if even half of them don't vote in November, Clinton should still win. Disaffected youth voters, which is most of what she is having trouble winning over from Bernie, are unlikely to matter to the election overall. They have the lowest voter turnout rates of any demographic. In 2008, the youth turnout was ~48.5% and Obama won by 7 points. In 2012, the youth turnout was ~41.2% and Obama won by 4 points. Yes, I'm sure Clinton will lose votes in this group to Stein and Johnson. But she's not likely to lose them to Trump and I expect turnout to increase from 2012 anyway, so this demo really shouldn't be much of a concern, until and unless she's losing more than 20% of the youth vote to 3rd party candidates* - which she's not. This also assumes that other demographic trends, such as increased Latino participation and continued increased Black participation (highest of any demo other than 65+) don't help Clinton out anyway compared to historical results. It also also assumes that the divided youth vote that does vote 3rd party does so equally across the country, rather than targeted in states that are safe wins or losses. Anecdotes from Bernie supporters indicate that a Bernie voter in Ohio is considerably less likely to vote Stein than one in Massachusetts.



*Math - Due to high engagement this cycle and how much everyone in the group hates Trump, even without Bernie on the ticket, I expect youth turnout returns to 2008 levels. So under standard expectations, let's say D would beat R by 7 points again. Obama won the youth vote by 35 in 2008. So for her to lose 7 points from the youth vote compared to 2008, given its ~50% turnout, she'd have to win the group only by 21. Trump is unlikely to capture any more of the youth vote than other Rs have in the past, so he'd cap at 30%. Some polling suggests he'd even cap at 25%. But assuming he does hit 30, that leaves a situation where Clinton would need to win only 50%, and 3rd party candidates 20%. This is close-ish to what current polling suggests, so she's already near the bare minimum of what she can afford, and third party candidates have historically faded over time when they poll this high in the summer. Also see point above about national vs state trends.
 

Bass

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Except Clinton was not being told by half of the party's base to move further left. She won very handily among democrats who have historically been engaged in the political process. She lost among people who have historically been disengaged in politics, most of whom self identify as independents anyway, and if even half of them don't vote in November, Clinton should still win. Disaffected youth voters, which is most of what she is having trouble winning over from Bernie, are unlikely to matter to the election overall. They have the lowest voter turnout rates of any demographic.
The democratic party had this exact line of thinking in 2014. Let's not cater to young and progressive voters because they never vote, so they won't matter anyway! Oh wait, I have some news for you. They lost. Wait, let me repeat that because apparently that reality hasn't sunk in. They fucking lost. Turnout, especially among the youth, was abysmal in that election. This arrogance towards disenfranchised voters is precisely why the GOP has been able to maintain an iron grip on our legislative branch. You can attempt to cherry pick numbers to come up with some convoluted narrative that comforts you into thinking Clinton can easily win without these votes, but that realty won't change. If you seriously believe that democrats have been losing due to failing to appeal to the so-called "center-left" swing voters and not because of horrendous turnout, then you are beyond lost.

In 2008, the youth turnout was ~48.5% and Obama won by 7 points. In 2012, the youth turnout was ~41.2% and Obama won by 4 points. Yes, I'm sure Clinton will lose votes in this group to Stein and Johnson. But she's not likely to lose them to Trump and I expect turnout to increase from 2012 anyway, so this demo really shouldn't be much of a concern, until and unless she's losing more than 20% of the youth vote to 3rd party candidates* - which she's not. This also assumes that other demographic trends, such as increased Latino participation and continued increased Black participation (highest of any demo other than 65+) don't help Clinton out anyway compared to historical results. It also also assumes that the divided youth vote that does vote 3rd party does so equally across the country, rather than targeted in states that are safe wins or losses. Anecdotes from Bernie supporters indicate that a Bernie voter in Ohio is considerably less likely to vote Stein than one in Massachusetts.



*Math - Due to high engagement this cycle and how much everyone in the group hates Trump, even without Bernie on the ticket, I expect youth turnout returns to 2008 levels. So under standard expectations, let's say D would beat R by 7 points again. Obama won the youth vote by 35 in 2008. So for her to lose 7 points from the youth vote compared to 2008, given its ~50% turnout, she'd have to win the group only by 21. Trump is unlikely to capture any more of the youth vote than other Rs have in the past, so he'd cap at 30%. Some polling suggests he'd even cap at 25%. But assuming he does hit 30, that leaves a situation where Clinton would need to win only 50%, and 3rd party candidates 20%. This is close-ish to what current polling suggests, so she's already near the bare minimum of what she can afford, and third party candidates have historically faded over time when they poll this high in the summer. Also see point above about national vs state trends.
I don't even know where to begin. Your math lies on many shaky assumptions, so I'll list a few of them. For one thing, do you seriously think turnout will be the same as in 2008? Are you not aware that Obama generated historic turnouts, especially among young voters? Do you not realize that Obama's approval ratings have and continue to remain far better than Clinton's AND Trump's, again particularly among young people? Do you think a general election between two very unpopular candidates will result in the same turnout as an election where a young, charismatic candidate had the potential to be the first African American president and bring a tide of liberalism after the long GOP stranglehold of Bush? Sorry, I don't think so. The only thing in your favor here is that the turnout should be higher than 2014 since this is a presidential election, but that's about it.

You also again act as if minority voters will greatly help Clinton this election. Hate to burst your bubble there, but even though it's true that Latinos are among the the most rapidly growing demographic, this is mainly taking place in solidly blue states with the exception of Arizona, which is still probably safely Trump territory. My last and final point of criticism is your conclusion assumes that only young voters are disenfranchised. Again, while young voters were Bernie's strongest demographic, it's not like Clinton won older voters by equally large margins. In general, democrats have and are continuing to neglect working class white voters of all ages, while Trump is catering to them much more aggressively. No matter how you slice it, the fact that current polling between Clinton and a guy who has practically no substance is even close should be alarming, not a sigh of relief. I am willing to bet that Clinton would lose in a landslide if Trump switched places with Gary Johnson as the Republican nominee. Think about that for a moment, and then ask yourself whether taking things for granted and just hoping that things work out as usual for you is a good long-term strategy. As a young voter who feels disenfranchised, I find such a thing to be both insulting and out of touch with reality. Would it really kill our elected officials, to you know, actually take us seriously?
 
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