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NOC Why is there a gun in my popcorn? GAME OVER SCUM WIN
- Thread starter Panic Station
- Start date
- Status
Make a gut read then
Fart big post/Tier list:
Texas
Likely town:
Flyhn
hitmonleet
josh
DLE (this is more for fun)
Might be town:
MoodyCloud
twin
Asek
UncleSam
Haruno:
Haruno
Yeti:
Yeti
Null/Leftover:
Blazade
Fort Colorcastle
DeathByWobbuffet
Former Hope
Jalmont
Aura Guardian
shubaka
winter-delta
Blazade might have rolled scum, I feel like he'd be more active. His read on me and josh both being town early could be a good sign he's town though. AG I'm unsure about in general. Lots of work but I get pocketed by walls of text easily so I'm sort of coasting past that. winter-delta needs to post /anything/, same with DeathByWobbuffet. Shubaka I'll never read this game I think, I've had problems reading that slot in the past. There's some road block with their posting style that always looks scummy to me and random derps that look townie as either alignment. People are saying they're scum, so w/e. Would be someone I would shoot if I felt lost.
Think Sam and Asek could be having a town/town fight. I want to read over their stuff again tomorrow after I get some sleep
Flyhn is my top town. I feel like their posts are super earnest and the reads they've had have all come from a townie mindset. If I'm wrong here I also think it'll become really apparent the further we get in the game.
I'd probably blast anyone in the null/leftover and feel relatively okay about it. I keep feeling like I should have some opinion about Fort Colorcastle so they'll probably be the person I iso later. I think Yeti could actually be town but we'll see. I'm worried this slot will end up being the most volatile for town win because of the way Yeti plays the game.
Also I selfishly think Jalmont is a good shot because they're a strong player who will slank hard and be relatively hard to read as either alignment. BUT I think (kind of like yeti) that it's a shot that should be made a little later in the game because if they're town they'll likely take a good shot with more information.
I DIDN'T MAKE THIS POST BECAUSE OF WHAT YETI SAID I PROMISE OKAY
Texas
Likely town:
Flyhn
hitmonleet
josh
DLE (this is more for fun)
Might be town:
MoodyCloud
twin
Asek
UncleSam
Haruno:
Haruno
Yeti:
Yeti
Null/Leftover:
Blazade
Fort Colorcastle
DeathByWobbuffet
Former Hope
Jalmont
Aura Guardian
shubaka
winter-delta
Blazade might have rolled scum, I feel like he'd be more active. His read on me and josh both being town early could be a good sign he's town though. AG I'm unsure about in general. Lots of work but I get pocketed by walls of text easily so I'm sort of coasting past that. winter-delta needs to post /anything/, same with DeathByWobbuffet. Shubaka I'll never read this game I think, I've had problems reading that slot in the past. There's some road block with their posting style that always looks scummy to me and random derps that look townie as either alignment. People are saying they're scum, so w/e. Would be someone I would shoot if I felt lost.
Think Sam and Asek could be having a town/town fight. I want to read over their stuff again tomorrow after I get some sleep
Flyhn is my top town. I feel like their posts are super earnest and the reads they've had have all come from a townie mindset. If I'm wrong here I also think it'll become really apparent the further we get in the game.
I'd probably blast anyone in the null/leftover and feel relatively okay about it. I keep feeling like I should have some opinion about Fort Colorcastle so they'll probably be the person I iso later. I think Yeti could actually be town but we'll see. I'm worried this slot will end up being the most volatile for town win because of the way Yeti plays the game.
Also I selfishly think Jalmont is a good shot because they're a strong player who will slank hard and be relatively hard to read as either alignment. BUT I think (kind of like yeti) that it's a shot that should be made a little later in the game because if they're town they'll likely take a good shot with more information.
I DIDN'T MAKE THIS POST BECAUSE OF WHAT YETI SAID I PROMISE OKAY
I like how Haruno and Yeti are in their own unexplained tiers.
Not that there's been quite a bit of discussion about Haruno or anything
Not that there's been quite a bit of discussion about Haruno or anything
People talked about Haruno as an ethereal idea. Haruno has posted very little
that's actually kinda true lmao. including his confirmation post and some picture of a guy with a gun to his own head, he has 10 posts. Making that 8 posts in the game, of which he sums up "Idgaf about d1 in an NOC"
Reading relationships is important but reading them pre flip is also a huge trap especially because people aren't stupid and will start to distance appropriately.
Not reading a lot that's alignment indicative yet, this is some good discussion but it just reads like people are comfortable talking so far. Like even Aura Guardian who has taken some leaps of faith in his scumreads in my opinion he took weird logic in Deathnote (as scum, but truly believing that it was town logic at the time and using it to bus).
Moody Cloud reads less comfortable but I guess life's hard when you don't get to be Town Watcher every NOC.
Uncle Sam is doing the Uncle Sam thing, no reason to be suspicious of it yet.
DeathbyWobbuffet please do better this game than every other NOC you've done otherwise I will shoot you when I get the gun.
Hitmonleet reads ok, definitely less awkward than Deathnote but hard to judge the learning curve here.
Not reading a lot that's alignment indicative yet, this is some good discussion but it just reads like people are comfortable talking so far. Like even Aura Guardian who has taken some leaps of faith in his scumreads in my opinion he took weird logic in Deathnote (as scum, but truly believing that it was town logic at the time and using it to bus).
Moody Cloud reads less comfortable but I guess life's hard when you don't get to be Town Watcher every NOC.
Uncle Sam is doing the Uncle Sam thing, no reason to be suspicious of it yet.
DeathbyWobbuffet please do better this game than every other NOC you've done otherwise I will shoot you when I get the gun.
Hitmonleet reads ok, definitely less awkward than Deathnote but hard to judge the learning curve here.
I will never be scum in a NOC ever
I know I said I'd read everything but damn, 12 pages. Maybe I'll go through it more in-depth later but here's some quick reads for now.
I don't like how Empoof's just been posting one-liners, but maybe that's how he always plays, idk. From what I've seen so far his reads have been pretty baseless too. I agree with Flyhn that Former Hope has been acting kinda strange. In the only other NOC game I've been in with them I remember their posts tended to be a lot more detailed and they were a fair bit more active as well.
Really don't understand this post from asek. I mean it was poorly worded but I dont see how the fact that he used "literally assuming" makes him a better shot? I do find UncleSam asking for his potential teammates a little scummy though, especially since he then went back on it and told twin that he didn't need to give them.
Jalmont/shub/winter-delta have been lurking a fair bit, so I'm not really sure about any of them. Would like to hear something, although I can't really talk myself.
Also Texas I'm fine with taking the gun if you want.
I don't like how Empoof's just been posting one-liners, but maybe that's how he always plays, idk. From what I've seen so far his reads have been pretty baseless too. I agree with Flyhn that Former Hope has been acting kinda strange. In the only other NOC game I've been in with them I remember their posts tended to be a lot more detailed and they were a fair bit more active as well.
Really don't understand this post from asek. I mean it was poorly worded but I dont see how the fact that he used "literally assuming" makes him a better shot? I do find UncleSam asking for his potential teammates a little scummy though, especially since he then went back on it and told twin that he didn't need to give them.
Jalmont/shub/winter-delta have been lurking a fair bit, so I'm not really sure about any of them. Would like to hear something, although I can't really talk myself.
Also Texas I'm fine with taking the gun if you want.
Whoops I'm bad. Texas Cloverleaf.
That rubs me the wrong way; if you're town then you shouldn't actually want Texas to die.
The reason I was like "gimme the gun" earlier was because like 5 people in a row (a full 25% of the game!) listed me as a scumread.
Who do you think you would shoot if you were the first shot? Do you trust yourself to hit scum right away?
Also hi, we played on mafiascum together before. I pushed you to a lynch day 1 and softed doctor to get killed by your partner. So you should know a little about me if anything. And I just posted a wall with details on my things Q_Q
No reason to post.
Oh yeah I almost forgot about that game lol. Perhaps it's because I got lynched day 1 as scum and we lost.
I'd probably shoot Former Hope. Don't trust myself though.
In case it wasn't obvious I give zero fucks about what people think in a game like this since honestly everything is NAI as far as I'm concerned. Fuck people that can seriously believe that anyone that would do some tldr read lists with no reasoning except I like pulling shit out of my ass. As far as I'm aware there's no fucking way for town to accurately solve because it's a NOC, and there's no fucking way to clean anyone. And frankly I don't have to.
Town's wincon is laughably easy, you don't even need to try to read anyone, if we fucking random every shot, the odds are in our favor. Even if we choose not to rand it, the last two/three players remaining only need to clear one fucking town, even if it's 3:7 or 2:7 as long as the remaining town isn't retarded they'll be able to pull through. I can honestly say until say cycle 10 this game is not wOrth discussing especially when people are grasping at the thinnest of straws.
Hell the only thing that town can even use is how Texas was chosen to own the gun and next to no one discussed it bar yeti who mentioned that the only reason texas would get it because US is mafia or the mafia don't know that US is a fuckinng loose cannon and likely to shoot some poor noob town day 1. Aside from that I don't think I've seen shit.
Long ass deadline is dumb as fuck. We shouldn't even need 24 hours of discussion and when I get the gun I promise it'll only take me 10min to make each shot.
Town's wincon is laughably easy, you don't even need to try to read anyone, if we fucking random every shot, the odds are in our favor. Even if we choose not to rand it, the last two/three players remaining only need to clear one fucking town, even if it's 3:7 or 2:7 as long as the remaining town isn't retarded they'll be able to pull through. I can honestly say until say cycle 10 this game is not wOrth discussing especially when people are grasping at the thinnest of straws.
Hell the only thing that town can even use is how Texas was chosen to own the gun and next to no one discussed it bar yeti who mentioned that the only reason texas would get it because US is mafia or the mafia don't know that US is a fuckinng loose cannon and likely to shoot some poor noob town day 1. Aside from that I don't think I've seen shit.
Long ass deadline is dumb as fuck. We shouldn't even need 24 hours of discussion and when I get the gun I promise it'll only take me 10min to make each shot.
Except for the expletives, I rather agree with this post.
math says that EVEN WITH THE WORST POSSIBLE TOWN SCENARIO (2t:7m), we have a 1/8 chance of winning. (7/8 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 4/5 ... * 1/2)
But that "worst case scenario" is only possible 0.016% of the time.
Even from 8t:7m, we get a chance of victory that's basically 50% (7town targets nad 7 mafia targets at that point).
Just for the lols, I also mathed that we have ~0.19% to cleansweep the scum on the first 7 days.
if there's problems with these numbers then come bite me.
But that "worst case scenario" is only possible 0.016% of the time.
Even from 8t:7m, we get a chance of victory that's basically 50% (7town targets nad 7 mafia targets at that point).
Just for the lols, I also mathed that we have ~0.19% to cleansweep the scum on the first 7 days.
if there's problems with these numbers then come bite me.
- Status