Mafia From the Depths - GAME OVER, INSANE WIN

Empoof said:

Whoa i have the most votes and am town. Please answer this in conjunction with me as well.

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If you were to flip town, I'd take a closer look at zorbees given the fact that he's been the most outspoken against you all game.

zorbees said:

One thing in particular I didn't like was his response to Empoof's "why did eagle4 ask you for a read on himself?" Walrein said that Eagle4 could have wanted a town opinion on how he was playing. But, if that is the case, why ask Walrein? Certainly it wasn't universal, but several users had voiced suspicion on Walrein. Why not ask askaninjask or Jalmont, or even Spiffy, who seemed pretty clean to most of us after his responses under pressure? My view on this issue is that Eagle4 asked his teammate because, in a close lynch vote, he wanted a final argument, from someone other than himself, to move the lynch away from him.

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Obviously I know I'm not mafia, but this could very well be what Eagle wanted it to look like... if it wasn't for the fact that I read back and his exact post was this:

Eagle4 said:

Also Walrein before I go to bed I wouldn't mind an analysis of myself from you like you sid you were gonna do(or are you doing that as I'm posting this?)

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So apparently we were all wrong and the reason is that I had already said I was gonna do one. Oops.

Shining Latios said:

I also don't quite understand why everyone wants to lynch Walrein and I am heavily confused at this point on that (here comes the posts).

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It would appear to be a combination of my dislike of confrontation, my being buddied by Eagle4, and my horrible case of foot-in-mouth syndrome.

If anyone else has anymore questions for me, lemme know, and I'll get back to you after dinner.

One thing I'd like to do when I get back is take a look at the posts of my two scum reads, Empoof and Metal Sonic, and see if there's any relationship between the two of them, or even more suspiciously absolutely no mention of each other at all.

I know you had already suggested that you would review Eagle4, the point is why would Eagle4 bring it back up when you had appeared to forgot about it.

@ Walrein

Metal Sonic said:

Walrein, why did you push for the shinyskarmory lynch on Day 2? Your response was insufficient. I had found him town; you have found him scum.

And here's a really hypocritical point that you can try to argue against: [If your reads are so bad,"SS for scum Eagle for town!", proven wrong, and I got the correct read, then shouldnt I be dictating the reads and not you? ]

And I dictate that you are scum! what do you say to that?

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1. I wasn't really pushing the SS lynch. I found both he and Eagle scummy, but SS slightly moreso. After Eagle flipped scum, it became obvious that despite his behavior he's pretty damn town.

2. I can't even tell what you're trying to ask. Can you rephrase that?

3. nope.avi

Hey, I fell asleep reading the thread. I'm going to go through and post who i think is town with hard evidence associated with Eagle. It's going to take me a bit of time and I know it showed me viewing the thread today which is why I'm posting a preface. I shied away from it at first because I wasn't sure if this would just end up being easy targets for the mafia (which it still kind of is i suppose), but after i had written up a quick list I really think we can pinpoint mafia pretty well with this.

Might as well try as hard as I can to help out town before deadline, seeing as I really can't combat any reasoning against me. I was inactive, I can say that there was solid reasoning behind it, but I can't really prove it. Being inactive does make me look scummier. Eagle did buddy me early, but WIFOM he also second guessed his town read on me.

I want us to hit scum next no matter what so I'll post up my reads in like an hour. It takes me a while to gather up a post like this, sorry.

Okay, this is all with how people were in relation to Eagle, with some very minor other reasons why I feel this way. I figure it would be best with Eagle seeing as it's the hardest evidence of anything we've got.

~ShinySkarmory~ Full Town
Ya there's a reason we all want to sentry him. This post is in my opinion the most influential in the Eagle lynch, as at that point it was only Jalmont on the Eagle lynch with focus was pushed onto Spiffy (3 votes), SL(3), and Walrein (2). Eagle's undying hatred of SS definitely helps out his case, as Eagle tried to push votes onto SS all the time (don't think i need to post cases for that).

~Aska~ Full Town
This is Aska calling out Eagle rather early D2 when he was getting no attention, with his

~More Cowbell~ Full Town
There are 2 votes on both Eagle and ShinySkarmory at the time of this post, and this is pretty good reasoning alone to assume More Cowbell is town. But I have particularly liked MC's attempts at contributing that I've seen, so he gets a little bump up into Full Town.

~Metal Sonic~ Almost Full Town
I've said it already, but here is pretty much why. He does keep constant pressure on him throughout the day. Before the lynch votes, he does put Eagle at high priority early on during the day. MS kind of puts Eagle on the backburner with this, but I think SS rekindled his interest. MS's D3 is kind of confusing me, and I'm debating looking through his D1 posts a bit. Perhaps I'm just susceptible to Walrein's propaganda, but it is possible he could be bussing I guess. I just really don't think it's likely. He gets his own tier. Too weak for OU, too strong for UU.
Metal Sonic is my BL read.

~Shining Latios~ Almost Full Town
This is an interesting one. I'm giving SL a decent town read not from anything he's done, but from how Eagle was eager to lynch him. Here's where it starts, and expands more during D2. He never really had much to say bad about Eagle, but Eagle's attempt to get him lynched is solid enough evidence for me.

~Spiffy~ Almost Full Town
Spiffy is pretty much the deciding vote for Eagle to be lynched D2 with his indirect hammer. However it could have been viewed as scummy to have voted for SS at that point. Along with Eagle's bizarre sentrying on him, I'm just not quite sure. I do agree with his reasonings for Walrein and over all his logic is pretty sound (better than mine), so he'll fit into my BL tier. I think I'm going to look through his posts next to sort of solidify my town read on him.
Just so I'm not viewed at noncommittal, I'm viewing spiffy as TOWN, but the evidence is greater on other people.

~Zorbees~ Semi Town
I looked indepth onto Zorbees and Eagle already. If anyone needs clarification on this let me know. "Eagle has pressure a lot of users and from that I've gained town reads. Eagle's lack of anything negative to say about zorbees doesn't make zorbees scum, but i don't get the luxury of labeling him town yet."

~Walrein~ Scum
Walrein is the closest thing to a scum read I have, and it fits that almost everyone else has evidence in favor of them being town. Eagle does buddy up to walrein here and there, then passively rethinks his position on him, and finishes off with this when he's under a lot of pressure. I suppose I'm bias, but I view Eagle's change of heart on me as an effort to move the lynch off of himself to perhaps me, whereas with Walrein he still holds a shaky town opinion the whole time. Spiffy: "Walrein never posted his analysis of Eagle4 for some reason despite promising to, which makes me believe he doesn't want to bring more attention to himself after Eagle4 flips mafia."
And here is spiffy's post of Walrein scumminess pre-eagle lynch.

Also, Walrein, regarding the point i brought up about Eagle calling you out: The problem here is that he is asking for your analysis, when you could easy have labelled him as scum and that would be the end of it. I don't see him taking this risk, I see him asking his teammate who would try to find a way to bail him out of this. Though I'm stumped when it comes to the scumtalk, perhaps you weren't online or he wanted to make sure you actually saw it.

I guess this is an important time to note that our format is [15] 12 v 3 iirc, which means that there are TWO mafians out there. This also means that someone could have easily bussed.

I need to go, I have LightWolf labeled as Semi-town with sparse evidence to help him out (i believe right above Zorbees), and TPM escaped one of my lists but is listed as town in my cut-and-dry list where i don't have tiers. I'll look through them and post with enough time to react before deadline (which is 24 hours~?).

okay
i screwed up my aska analysis and will do that with LightWolf and TPM

only 3 posts in one day :(


Ok well um due to the little amount of time we have left it may be remotely possible that walrein 'may' flip town, due to a lack of time and pressuring of him during day 3.


however we try as best as we can to minimise the chances of lynching a town, and since this day was relatively slow, it is always possible that a mislynch may occur.

tl;dr I am not 100% sure that Walrein is scum(I was 100% sure with the Eagle lynch), but he is our best lynch for now, and i can be 70% sure that he is the scum. If we had the L-2 on him earlier i could've just pressured him and give everyone a read

More Cowbell said:

Good post by LightWolf, the only thing is that it is based entirely around Eagle4 being mafia. Now, this is a good thing to go by, of course, since Eagle4 was mafia, but the problem remains that you have a lot of people on whom you have no opinion. You say you have no opinion on zorbees, Walrein, Spiffy and askaninjask regarding the Eagle4-thing, but what is your general opinion on them?

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Well for one, I think Walrein has some town vibe going towards him. As I said, he was the most pronounced "clean" of Eagle during the early game, but the time when Eagle changed his Sentry to Spiffy, the way he talked about Walrein there:

Yes, in one of my previous posts I mentioned that Walrein was a "basically confirmed townie" or something like that. Well, I guess Spiffy's post and a couple of others have convinced me otherwise. It's definitely not as clear cut for me as it is for Spiffy saying that Walrein is mafia, but he's definitely not as clean as I thought he was.

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This COULD be his team mates telling him to stop buddying Walrein, but it was in the middle of day 2, why wait till that long(for constantly reasoning that SL can't be mafia because his stupidity would have been stopped by his mates already you sure overlook this hard Metal Sonic, especially when SL doesn't actually endanger his teammates by being stupid). So for Walrein this stinks of a setup honestly, especially with that rush early(though that was mostly from MS, who is more likely town). So I'd put Walrein as town over scum if I had a choice, though I will return to him being a possible lynch later.

For aska, Spiffy and zorbees, honestly all of them being fairly experienced makes them harder to pin point as scum, so I look at them as more suspicious people than your average guy. None of them have made any obvious slips, but as time goes on if there is a mafia within them, they will likely slip one way or another.(Not saying how, not telling mafia what to look out for so don't ask!). So while I have my eyes on them, we don't have enough to pin point if there is a mafia within them and who it would be. Though if eagle's "experienced means clean" attitude is any hint, there very likely is. So I'd mark all of them as probable scum.

Now for today's lynch. In my post I highlighted an interesting post of Eagle's that I'd like to specifically point out again:

Okay well I guess I'll post my thoughts:

Both Walrein and Empoof seem village to me, Walrein wouldn't be so stupid to post something like that if he was Mafia, and Empoof has been heavily involved in the current affairs.

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As I stated in my big post: Tell me in my face you'd have the guts to name two of your team mates as clean with such a wishy-washy explanation. TELL ME! Honestly I highly doubt it, so no way both are mafia. Sooooo since people seem to be dead set on lynching one of them(even though I have both as more of a villager than mafia, it'd clean the other if one of them did actually turn up as a mafia). And as I have stated, I believe Empoof is the second most town person, only after SS who is confirmed clean, so if it comes to that decision, I'd rather go with Walrein.

Also if I may point it out, we are L-2 on both, as of SS' vote, so by my count this WOULD put it at L-1 for Walrein. But we have yet to see a post from our sub, so I'd rather wait for him to possibly post(especially since TPM was my second biggest suspect from my Eagle-thing). Meh fuck paranoia, only MS is on and he is on Walrein, so no danger of someone insta hammering while I post. unvote, Vote Walrein

Either way... For my Sentry, no idea why I haven't done this at the end of my big post, then again I was half asleep. Either way, since Empoof is nearly as town as SS from my point of view and quite honestly seems more experienced and didn't really have a chance to post his opinions much, I'm changing my Sentry to him. Well would... But since SS actually has a chance to be sentried, I shall stick to him. So erm I'm sentrying Empoof in spirit!

Ok I read Lightwolf's post and it was quite good.

I'd just like to put my opinion on this point over here:

Now for today's lynch. In my post I highlighted an interesting post of Eagle's that I'd like to specifically point out again:
Quote:
Okay well I guess I'll post my thoughts:

Both Walrein and Empoof seem village to me, Walrein wouldn't be so stupid to post something like that if he was Mafia, and Empoof has been heavily involved in the current affairs.
As I stated in my big post: Tell me in my face you'd have the guts to name two of your team mates as clean with such a wishy-washy explanation. TELL ME! Honestly I highly doubt it, so no way both are mafia. Sooooo since people seem to be dead set on lynching one of them(even though I have both as more of a villager than mafia, it'd clean the other if one of them did actually turn up as a mafia). And as I have stated, I believe Empoof is the second most town person, only after SS who is confirmed clean, so if it comes to that decision, I'd rather go with Walrein.

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Hmm IMO I would think Eagle would put 1 definitely town player in there and 1 other scumbuddy in there. So as to cause the village to mistake or guess or what blabla. OR, both of them turn up as village and Eagle was trying to lead us the wrong track(thats what I meant by trying not to read too much into Eagle's posts). I'm going with Walrein as scum.




Additionally, Walrein was one of the four(along with you, unfortunately, but I believe you are town now) who voted for the Shinyskarmory lynch; not on Eagle. It would be unlikely that the final mafia member would be on SS as well; if Walrein flips scum the other 3 are probably clean. Therefore I mean that 1 mafia would be on Eagle lynch and 2(Eagle+1 unknown) on SS lynch day 2. Walrein also fits this criteria.



And if Walrein also happens to be scum, his 'accidental' hammer on Day 1 starts to make sense now. Let's say he's scum, that would mean that he would be pretty eager to Vote out Cypher quickly and end the day and go "oops sorry I hammered totally didnt see"

These are my main points for a Walrein lynch.



Now, since he is at L-1(ew he isnt here to respond in time :/),

What procedures have you taken so as to provide logical and accurate analyses for the town(iirc shitty ones day 1, very few day 2 and none day 3)?

Why did Eagle choose to buddy you?(or was it a rand?)

and lastly: Provide postular evidence that I and/or Empoof is scummy. Not just "suspicious", which is highly subjective, but explicit scum posts.

Clarification^

@Q1 I may add that your reads were wrong day 2, regarding the alignment of SS and Eagle. How have you rectified your incorrect/inaccurate reads?


@Q3 That make you view us at scum at this Day 3, notwithstanding that your "reads" Day 2 were highly inaccurate

^

Walrein's responses to the above posts will help me(and us) determine his alignment accurately.


Unfortunately, due to the lack of time, if Walrein turns out to have a town read, it would be very difficult to find a different lynch target(unless you people pull off a ninja again!)
All I can do at then is to suggest a more suitable lynch target for Day 4.

Hopefully, Walrein isn't town. And I hope that we could get a Early L-2 or L-1 Pressure vote early on somebody tomorrow.

sentry shinyskarmory

I'm not 100% sold on aska being clean, I'd probably sentry Spiffy if it was my choice only. But iirc sentry requires majority, so with the day almost over, it'd be pretty foolish not to go with either aska or shinyskarmory.

I'd like to note that at the moment, I am liking Empoof's recent posts, but I might look into him more if this changes and/or if Walrein flips town, assuming no late change here.

I'd have voted for Walrein in this post, but he was already put to L-1, and I don't want to hammer just yet.

^ I agree with the above post by zorbees

Alright, so by the looks of it, it's either Walrein or Empoof getting lynched today. This post may be a little all over the place, so stick with me;

Empoof was inactive before, but I like his most recent posts, he doesn't feel very scum to me. If it were to come to a choice between lynching Walrein or Empoof, I'd be more comfortable lynching Walrein. Walrein is at L-1 right now, and much like zorbees, I want to see some last responses of Walrein, and I also want to hear something from the new sub before ending the day.

As of now, my vote is still on Metal Sonic, though some of his recent posts are considerably better than his older ones. I still don't know why you waited till Day 3, Metal Sonic, but at least you are improving. I still don't trust you yet, though. My vote remains on Metal Sonic, since my vote would otherwise go to Walrein, and like I said, I don't want to hammer without Walrein answering first.

Also, one last thing of notice; Metal Sonic is pushing this Walrein lynch really hard, constantly pushing for the L-2 and asking questions, only to Walrein. If Walrein flips town, I feel the next person to lynch is definitely Metal Sonic. If Walrein flips mafia, that would make Metal Sonic pretty much clean, since he was one of the first to start voting Walrein (either that, or we may be looking at some very deep reverse psychology here. I doubt it, though, since it would be weird for Metal Sonic to draw so much attention to his teammate).

Though, coming back to Metal Sonic pushing for a Walrein lynch, it would be strange for Metal Sonic as mafia member to vouch so strongly for lynching a villager, as Walrein flipping town would then immediately draw all attention to Metal Sonic (which I also stated in my previous post). It's disappointing that this is Metal Sonic's first game of NOC here, since otherwise we would be able to find some sort of playstyle. Right now, I still find it hard to pinpoint what exactly he's doing.

So at this point, we need to make a decision. By my iPhone it's 4 and a half hours until deadline and we have Walrein at L-1 and Empoof at L-2.

I am no longer sure that Empoof is the best lynch since he made a few pretty good posts since I voted for him, and I trust his intuition.

Unvote

I WILL be online for deadline (assuming it's at the time I think it's at) so I'll vote for whoever I think is the better target then. I need to think about this.

so hi, sorry I didn't post yesterday but I was still reading the thread and familiarising myself, ready to start contributing now I guess

shinyskarmory said:

ugh...last thing we need is some new player destroying all of our reads on TPM.

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ouch :[

so TPM has been pretty inactive in general since the start of the game. I know some of you were suspicious of him so time to analyse his play since I know I'm town = I know he was town

Day 1: he doesn't post for a day, then comes back; talks about why he's been inactive, and another post regarding his long absence from mafia in general. He then is the 3rd person to vote Metal Sonic, calling out his repeated, short (bad?) posts and accusations. He continues saying MS should post something substantial to get out of the heat - which he doesn't do, so his vote is on MS for a while. after shinyskarmory's post voting Shining Latios, in which SS's reasoning is that SL is either scum or a bad villager, TPM votes for SS. then he calls out Metal Sonic on his double triple quadruple posting but stays on SS.

He then talks about cypher and SS again, calling out I.C's consistent bandwagoning but not wanting to vote ?_? a few posts later, once DLE has advocated a cypher vote, he obliges, although he's still worried about bandwagoning

Day 2: zorbees asks TPM for reads, which he does. this is a big post and I don't feel like I'm good enough to read reads :( so just look at it for yourself. (his main scum reads are Walrein, zorbees, and shinyskarmory; avoids talking about Empoof). zorbees responds defending Walrein and Spiffy and making him explain his kind of twisted reasoning, to which TPM makes another long post: he retracts his scum read on Spiffy a bit, retracts his scum read on Walrein (acknowledging the sentry thing might've been misguided), points out lots of players find zorbees scummy but there hasn't been much pressure, and rethinks his positively town read on Empoof.

says he can't find much to add, a bit later sentrys aska > lightwolf

this is one saying he really doesn't like this Eagle4 lynch! he wants a clear reason, and I don't see any proper responses but by now he is persuaded to vote eagle4 (now at L-2), people point out how zorbees isn't putting Eagle at L-1 and he begins to suspect a scumteam

later in day 3: he votes zorbees for essentially what was said yesterday. then apologises for inactivity.

after Walrein asks him to post some reads, this is his reply, although its kinda vague

and then he's subbed out

so I've been following this thread on and off and I have stuff to say I'd like to know what you guys want from me :)

jsyk my top reads (other than the obvious SS) are:

askaninjask: I'm pretty positive he's town mainly because of that post early d2? when he brought up how pretty much nobody had considered Eagle4 for scum, just feels like bussing isn't even worth it when absolutely nobody's pressuring your teammate. Like there is WIFOM associated with this, but I really cant imagine someone doing that

Metal Sonic: seems to have a p. arrogant playstyle in general, but i think he's town because I doubt scum would be so aggressive; as in, maybe he's scum and Walrein's town, but he's like "everybody vote walrein!!" and if walrein flips town then MS is going to be under the heat a lot.

Walrein: HONESTLY i have no clue, luckily it seems like if/when he's lynched we're going to have a lot more info to go off as this village seems very conflicted on the vote. im not gonna vote him or anyone yet because I'm still uncertain sorry :/

Lightwolf: ok so with limited experience in RTMs playing scum, it seems to me that the more you say, the more chance you have of slipping up. idk if its always LW's playstyle to write as much as possible in 1 post and kind of swarm readers with info that they may or may not take in. However he seems to be contributing a lot and specifically, sharing *different* opinions which is dangerous for scum to do!!

like my former self TPM I am entertaining the possibility of zorbees being mafia; what Walrein flips will be the deciding factor imo (provided he does die which is most likely) he HAS been pressuring the town and asking for reads but like jalmont pointed out, the xyz ones kind of tunnelvision people. sorry zorbees if thats not what you were aiming for

I can't read Empoof at all is he always this nice? Spiffy too, has the whole MS thing going on to a lesser degree, acting scummy to not get nightkilled while also trying to put pressure on everybody

oh are TPMs votes carried over for me?? cuz if they aren't, I will sentry shinyskarmory obviously cleanest player itg

Welcome to the game, citro. Little question; is this your first (NOC) mafia game?

this is my first forum mafia game ever! I've played real time mafia and bot mafia before in #circus and on PO though.

@Citro: what I said was nothing against you personally. Getting subbed into NOC is a massive bitch and being able to react to the events of the game in hindsight will give you much different opinions then those of us who were in the game at the time.

Also, we had reads on TPM. We have nothing on you. Since you're two different people you have the potential to react completely differently even though you have the same role. As such TPM's lack of activity has cost us someone we had a read on and replaced the. With an unknown quantity. That's why I was irritated; sorry if it came off as a personal attack.

The advantage of TPM being subbed out is that he wasn't very involved in the game; it would be much harder to replace an outspoken player, like Walrein or Metal Sonic, as they have a much more specific style, and have been very active in the thread. TPM, on the other hand, has very little posts in the thread, meaning that we didn't learn too much about his role. Let's hope citro can change that!

Requesting an extension of a few hours as I'll still be at school at the time of the current deadline.