Standard Metagame Analysis (June/July 2008)

Tangerine

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NOTE: This is a little outdated as I wrote it in the beginning of July - and updated it a little bit to reflect some of the recent issues. This analysis reflects the standard metagame, not the suspect test ladder.

With the advent of the Smogon server and the many changes that accompanied it, along with the new suspect ladder, the analysis of the metagame is something that needs to be done in order to mark the changes so that we as a community is able to make the best decision possible in the upcoming suspect change metagame.

This is an analysis of the standard metagame, sans Wobbuffet, as of the month of August of 2008.

It is an understatement to say Stealth Rock is a major part of the metagame. The better statement is that Stealth Rock is the metagame itself. Most damage calculations for sweepers are now done assuming that Stealth Rock will be in play. There has been calls to ban Stealth Rock, or at least test it. To attest to this claim is the Stealth Rock arms race.

What is the Stealth Rock arms race? It is the use of the item Focus Sash in order to Taunt to halt the opponent's Stealth Rocks and Stealth Rock to set up the rocks themselves. It is the race to stop your opponent's Stealth Rock and set up your own - often sacrificing your lead to do so.

Because many lead Pokemon carry Stealth Rock, the opening leads now carry ways to stop it. Gengar is a popular lead since it is able to bring Pokemon to sleep with ease, preventing the use of Stealth Rock. No longer do people attempt to lead with Pokemon to jump start their momentum, such as Salamence and Weavile. Taunt Gyarados has also taken it's effect as very few people lead with their Hippowdons and Swamperts now, even though the use of Gyarados has diminished due to Gengar being the most popular lead. In order to deal with Gengar, many leads now carry Lum Berry in an attempt to take the initial hypnosis and deal with Gengar back. Because Hippowdon and Swampert lack a way to take down Gengar, they're no longer popular, and now Bronzong is a more popular lead - it's ability to Hypnosis, Set up Rocks, and deal with some top tier threats such as Garchomp and Mamoswine makes us realize why this absolutely hideous Pokemon is OU.

Azelf, with its fast taunt and its ability to melt enemy Bronzongs, and its ability to set up Stealth Rock is perhaps another excellent lead. Is it any wonder that Azelfs were the #1 lead in the official server? Azelfs serve as an example of a suicide lead, along with Deoxys, who can Taunt, set up Stealth Rock, and then run Light Screen and Reflect to ease the next Pokemon's attempt to set up a sweeper.

The current metagame is also very centralized around dealing with Garchomp. Every team must be able to deal with Garchomp in some way - hence the rise of bulky waters, grounds, and steels who are very defensive. The most effective offensive type combination in the metagame currently is Grass and Fire - which reflects the current centralization around steels, grounds, and bulky waters.

If we spoil ourselves with the thought that the metagame measures power by usage - Garchomp is easily the #1 threat in the metagame. It is so powerful that the usage continues to rise month after month despite the countermeasures developed to deal with it. If it carries Yache Berry, it can even take down one of it's counters and greatly harm the other before going down. If it carries Scarf, expect it to be one of the most efficient revenge killers in the game, at times even outspeeding Deoxys E and KOing it. Its defensive prowess is nothing to skimp over either - its ability to switch into threats such as Lucario shows how useful it is defensively.

The threat to watch out for next is of course, Lucario. The Sword Dance set became it's most powerful set (again, measuring power by usage), sweeping through the end game with Extreme Speed and being able to KO the biggest physical walls even after Stealth Rock. It is a threat that is difficult to revenge kill, unless it manages to outspeed Lucario and resists and or immune to Extremespeed. Because many fast ghosts attempt to stop Lucario, expect some to even carry Bullet Punch. Because now people expect Lucario to Sword Dance whenever it switches in, maybe it is quite the time for SpecsLuke, despite the fact that Lucario can no longer 2HKO Blissey with Aura Sphere since Blissey has started carrying SpDef EVs in order to deal with the biggest special threats.

Perhaps Lucario and Garchomp is the biggest factor that turn the metagame into a bulky one. Pokemon such as Celebi and Zapdos quickly rose to popularity - being able to deal with such threats as Garchomp, Lucario, Gyarados. Choice Scarf Heatran is also the revenge killer of choice - being resistant to Extreme Speed and being able to revenge kill both Garchomp and Lucario, amongst many other threats and explode on threats that the team can't deal with. Heatran's ability to prey on the enormous Fire weak in the current metagame is, however, it's greatest utility.

Don't expect threats like Gyarados to be overlooked however. Realizing it's folly to switch into Garchomps who commonly carry Substitute and Yache Berry, many Gyarados are now more and more offensive - being able to KO many of it's supposed counters or at least cripple them. Max Attack Gyarados are more and more common, holding onto a Life Orb to make it more and more deadly, with enough speed to take down it's worst nemesis, Starmie down after a Bite or Earthquake, Nearly 2HKOing Vaporeon with Stone Edge while OHKOing Zapdos, and even crippling Celebis with Ice Fang and in the meanwhile sweeping through many threats with it's physical Water attacks.

Salamence in the meanwhile, are nearly all mixed or Dragon Dancers. Specsmence are rare in sight - perhaps because Stealth Rock makes life difficult for it and being able to stay in as long as possible is very useful for Salamence. Expect Salamence to Dragon Dance and Roost, or carry Life Orb and hit with Draco Meteor and then hit Pokemon with it's massive physical attack.

Gengar is the second most used Pokemon - and it no longer needs to be unpredictable to be useful (but being unpredictable of course, helps it in the long run) - particularly because the metagame is so centralized around these physical threats. Gengar is commonly Scarfed - in order to avoid being so easily preyed by Weavile. Perhaps it is because of Gengar that many Tyranitar now carry spdef so it can take a focus blast and KO it back.

With the emphasis on Physical Offense, and it's temporary loss of Wish, it is no surprise that Blissey usage has declined. Vaporeon in the meanwhile rose to fill in it's niche - being able to deal with Gyarados and Garchomp while being able to pass Wish.

Infernape is still around, perhaps because of it's excellent speed and it's ability to hit the metagame with a fantastic offensive combination that has more utility than Bolt Beam in this metagame - Grass and Fire. Having access to a special Grass and Fire Attack in a physically geared metagame, and it's ability to KO Blissey, it is no surprise that many teams in RMT are weak to Infernape. Infernapes now even carry HP Ice instead of Nasty Plot to stop the Dragons from threatening it - perhaps the biggest reason being able to revenge kill Garchomp.

The effect Deoxys E has on the metagame is stunning, effectively proving itself to be the best clean up sweeper in the game. Deoxys E only forces the metagame to become more and more bulky - as it does it job a little bit too well, being able to deal with it's weakened counters and it's fantastic speed being able to easily clean up whatever remains of the opponent's team. Deoxys E has rose tremendously in usage - not just because of its sweeping prowess but also for the fastest Taunt in the game, a clear nuclear option in the Stealth Rock arms race. This explains the rise of Metagross and Scizor. Both being able to switch into any of Deoxys E's attacks and Pursuit it or hit it with a Priority attack.

Nidoqueen is surprisingly becoming popular, for it's ability to absorb toxic spikes, set up toxic spikes, and additionally countering Heracross and SD Lucario. Forrestress and Starmie use shows the emphasis the metagame has on the entrance hazards such as Stealth Rock, Spikes, and Toxic Spikes. It is no surprise that Tentacruel found a niche in OU while Roserade has now become OU again - with its ability to absorb Toxic Spikes and set up their own.
 
Amazing! Well done again Tangerine. Your ability to analyze anything and come back with a well-written and almost flawless essay proves that you are definately a top player.
 

Taylor

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Nice read. I wish we had some sort of summary at the end, instead of stopping immediately after your analysis on Nidoqueen. I swear there was a conclusion in other metagame analysises/diaries. Nevertheless, interesting read.
 
I loved this, Tangerine. It's a nice way for all players of OU, old and new alike, to look at this and to realize what the threats of the metagame are so they can build a good team accordingly. Excellent work here!

We can build off of this also that without standard walls (Blissey is diminishing), the metagame is based off of bulky offense utilizing resistances. I also must say that the only scarf users I've seen in these past 2 months are Garchomp and Gengar. Scarf Heracross (like he's non-existant) has sharply gone down due to Deoxys and such. It should also be noted that Sleep Talkers are becoming more useful with Gengar's fast Hypnosis being so useful.
 

TAY

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Pretty nice job, Tangerine!

Let's see...I would say that Deoxys-E has had even more of an impact than you give it credit for. This may seem surprising, but I would disagree with your statement that the metagame is centralized around dealing with Garchomp. Maybe I'm looking ahead a bit too much, but I think that it is instead focused around Deoxys-E. Most leads these days are either suicide leads or are specially tailored to beat suicide leads in some way. At the forefront of this is Deoxys-E, who, as you mention, has the fastest taunt in the game, and sets up SR/Reflect/Light Screen easily. With Screens up, Gyarados and Salamence are more threatening than Garchomp imo, because the speed boost makes it very difficult to revenge kill them. If your opponent sets up a Garchomp then at least you can revenge kill it, but if Gyarados or Salamence or even TTar gets 2 DDs under its belt - hardly a difficult task with both screens up - then you have few useful options outside of Extremespeed and, of course, your own Deoxys-E. The fact that you can taunt away SR only makes Gyara and Salamence more useful.

Further evidence comes from the fact that the plurality of Bronzongs are now Sassy, instead of Relaxed (see Doug's statistics). I believe this shows that people have given up on trying to wall Garchomp - the best way to beat it with Zong is to explode anyway - and have focused their efforts more on Gengar, who is an incredible pain when you're trying to set up, and it can outspeed some Gyarados/Salamence even after 2 DD's if it has a scarf; and on Deoxys-E, who, in my opinion, is now the focus of the metagame instead of Garchomp.

In a metagame focused around offense and speed, the DD-less Garchomp falls short of Gyarados and Salamence, who are much more difficult to revenge kill.

(This isn't to say that Garchomp isn't still a huge threat, only that Deoexs-E is now more in the center of the metagame).
 
OP blew me away. Absolutely great stuff.

I think it's interesting to see how pokemon like nidoqueen are rising up in the ranks to fill certain niches. Namely the rise of toxic spikes is interesting in an offensively-centered metagame.

I would also like to agree with TAY, about how Deoxys-E is now the centralizing force in OU. I think with the revolution of the taunt and DS, deoxys has taken its game to a whole new level. A level, which I originally opposed, that will hopefully propel it back into ubers.

That is not to say Garchomp is a thing of the past, on the contrary, it is still very prevalent in my mind when making a team. I just think that there are so few ways to stop deoxys, even if you do know what set it is carrying, as opposed to garchomp, who is the typical SDyache set...But at least Gamefreak had the decency to make chomp 4x weak to ice. :P
 
Great analysis. But I have a question about the Toxic Spikes being so popular: Why? I mean, with a Roserade lead, its only purpose is to Set-Up Toxic Spikes, and maybe sleep something along the way. It seems like a huge waste of a team slot when the opponent then has CeleTran and a Zapdos (2/3 their Defensive not affected, Celebi can cure itself by switching out)

Not trying to go too far off-topic, but how exactly do you focus so much on one element of a Team when so many bulky pokemon are immune to it?

(Obviously I'm missing something, as Tspikes are very popular)
 

Tangerine

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Thanks for the comments guys

The analysis is obviously a little outdated atm - especially with Dual Screen Deoxys. I'll rework the entire thing and draft a more polished, finished version later so just comment anything you guys have to say that is missing in the analysis. Basically, the more things you guys have to say the merrier - since we are after all aiming for an "archive" so to speak that we can look back to at any point in time
 
Great analysis. But I have a question about the Toxic Spikes being so popular: Why? I mean, with a Roserade lead, its only purpose is to Set-Up Toxic Spikes, and maybe sleep something along the way. It seems like a huge waste of a team slot when the opponent then has CeleTran and a Zapdos (2/3 their Defensive not affected, Celebi can cure itself by switching out)

Not trying to go too far off-topic, but how exactly do you focus so much on one element of a Team when so many bulky pokemon are immune to it?

(Obviously I'm missing something, as Tspikes are very popular)
I think this is probably quite obvious, as Tspikes affects both Garchomp and Deoxys-E. For Chomp, this ensures that it goes down in health enough so that the Yache Berry will kill it, while for Deoxys-E, recover won't help with Toxic.

Celebi is affected. When it switches out, it loses the poison, only to get it back when it switches in. In this case, Natural Cure doesn't work at all.

But the inability for Tspikes to affect Zapdos, Heatran and Lucario definately reduces it's usage. (And also Salamence, Gengar and Gyarados)
 
Great analysis, I was useful to understand some things. Truly, I say, I think Lucario is a Pokémon overestimated. This Pokémon has 70 base in HP, Def, and SpDef, speaking of Swords Dancer know that is always used with the following EV spread: 4 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Spd Adamant nature (+Atk, -SpAtk) which is the EV spread that allows him to inflict the most damage possible. Well, a Pokémon with 281 HP, 176 Def and SpDef you tell me about what should enter easily? On Forretress unless it has Earthquake or Explosion; on Blissey unless it has Flamethrower, Thunder Wave or Sing, on what? And already this is a point against because the solid Team of actual Metagame, whether standard or not, prevent almost entirely the switch-in. The last team that I built, besides having its counter, is composed of 6 Pokémon not allow the switch-in and were not absolutely included them specifically for that. The fact that Skarmory can not make him a lot (apart from that, in my opinion a Pokémon using Whirlwind to force him to switch means that in the coming rounds you will be careful to Lucario. It's called "Shuffling "...) does not mean that other Pokémon which Weezing, Gyarados, Donphan, Hitmontop, Salamence, Hippowdon, Garchomp, Gliscor, Dusknoir, ecc... can not countering (with or without Stealth Rock).
Team Building in DP is more important than any other generation, and I believe that a solid Team are the best solution in this Metagame.
 
Great analysis, I was useful to understand some things. Truly, I say, I think Lucario is a Pokémon overestimated. This Pokémon has 70 base in HP, Def, and SpDef, speaking of Swords Dancer know that is always used with the following EV spread: 4 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Spd Adamant nature (+Atk, -SpAtk) which is the EV spread that allows him to inflict the most damage possible. Well, a Pokémon with 281 HP, 176 Def and SpDef you tell me about what should enter easily? On Forretress unless it has Earthquake or Explosion; on Blissey unless it has Flamethrower, Thunder Wave or Sing, on what? And already this is a point against because the solid Team of actual Metagame, whether standard or not, prevent almost entirely the switch-in. The last team that I built, besides having its counter, is composed of 6 Pokémon not allow the switch-in and were not absolutely included them specifically for that. The fact that Skarmory can not make him a lot (apart from that, in my opinion a Pokémon using Whirlwind to force him to switch means that in the coming rounds you will be careful to Lucario. It's called "Shuffling "...) does not mean that other Pokémon which Weezing, Gyarados, Donphan, Hitmontop, Salamence, Hippowdon, Garchomp, Gliscor, Dusknoir, ecc... can not countering (with or without Stealth Rock).
Team Building in DP is more important than any other generation, and I believe that a solid Team are the best solution in this Metagame.
First off, I had some difficulty reading your post, as it was at times both illiterate, and difficult to read with no spacing. :/

Two things though. You seem to think that Lucario needs to switch in for it to work. That is not true. Lucario can simply come in after a teammate has fainted. Simple as that.

Another thing, unless I read this wrong, you said that skarmory can counter Lucario. .......One of SDLOcario's main purposes is to be able to OHKO skarm with CC after one SD. You also seemed to list Hippowdon and Dusknoir as SDLOcario counters, which they are not.
 

LightWolf

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Really nice analysis. I really wonder how things will change if Deo-E, and Chomp get moved to Ubers.

@DDyardos: Dusknoir could counter SDLOcario if:
Because many fast ghosts attempt to stop Lucario, expect some to even carry Bullet Punch.
This means they have SD/CC/ExtremeSpeed/BulletPunch. I do not know if Dusknoir can take 2 hits from it before dying, but burning it would make it much easier to counter. But that all is very optional, and ScrafTran Would do it better. I think when writing he was thinking about that version of SDLOcario, but the BulletPunch version (for me) is rare, I'm yet to see one in action outside of RMT.
 
Blissey still has Wish, so the main reason for its decline is mostly the influx of physical attackers, like Lucario and DDmence, which use it as set-up fodder. Everything else is spot on, and correlates with my observations as well.
 
I really like the part about the "Stealth Rock arms race". I think you should be mentioning something about the use of Max Speed pokemon. None of the sets in the Deoxys-S analysis run max speed, for example. 96 is needed to beat ScarfCross, but that's it. It would be nice to include observations on how people are running 252 EVs and a +nature on many Pokemon just to hit a speed tie.
 
The effect Deoxys E has on the metagame is stunning, effectively proving itself to be the best clean up sweeper in the game. Deoxys E only forces the metagame to become more and more bulky - as it does it job a little bit too well, being able to deal with it's weakened counters and it's fantastic speed being able to easily clean up whatever remains of the opponent's team. Deoxys E has rose tremendously in usage - not just because of its sweeping prowess but also for the fastest Taunt in the game, a clear nuclear option in the Stealth Rock arms race. This explains the rise of Metagross and Scizor. Both being able to switch into any of Deoxys E's attacks and Pursuit it or hit it with a Priority attack.
I think that was a typo, or maybe I have never heard of that word before.

I think it was great to read this analysis. I've been breeding for a long time, but I never really got around to battling. So I really don't know what has been going on in the game. But I have noticed massive changes since I did battle on shoddy a lot during March, and I just started battling again.

I didn't know that wish bliss was really the only reason bliss was there, on wifi I still see plenty of bliss's. Maybe shoddy people are just so used to using their wish, or maybe their whole team was based on using bliss's wish.

EDIT: Just googled prowess, never mind lol.
 
First off, I had some difficulty reading your post, as it was at times both illiterate, and difficult to read with no spacing. :/
What? We would have understood if I said that I made errors of grammar, that is because I'm Italian and are not practical with English, but I say that I did not put spaces? :\

Two things though. You seem to think that Lucario needs to switch in for it to work. That is not true. Lucario can simply come in after a teammate has fainted. Simple as that.
That's true, but Gyarados, Salamence, Garchomp, etc... are much more versatile IMHO, because they have more staying power. Come on... Lucario suffers 37% - 44% by STABbed Outrage (x0.5 on Lucario) of Jolly GABITE.

Another thing, unless I read this wrong, you said that skarmory can counter Lucario. .......One of SDLOcario's main purposes is to be able to OHKO skarm with CC after one SD. You also seemed to list Hippowdon and Dusknoir as SDLOcario counters, which they are not.
Close Combat after a Swords Dance is not OHKO with certainty, however... Hippowdon isn't OHKO by CC after a Swords Dance, and if switch on Swords Dance, receives the attack and uses Earthquake for OHKO. Dusknoir is a counter of Lucario without Crunch (Lucario may have Bullet Punch for Gengar).
 
Yay!! I use Nidoqueen because I like her, but after reading this I will keep using her because of her utility.
Thanks!!
 
Your English and spacing seemed fine to me. I don't know what that guy was talking about.
It was his other post that I could barely read. Walls of text with no spacing hurts my eyes.

Close Combat after a Swords Dance is not OHKO with certainty, however... Hippowdon isn't OHKO by CC after a Swords Dance, and if switch on Swords Dance, receives the attack and uses Earthquake for OHKO. Dusknoir is a counter of Lucario without Crunch (Lucario may have Bullet Punch for Gengar).
Skarmory is almost always has a close to a 3% chance to survive a SD'ed CC from the standard LOcario, with stealth rock up. (which let's be honest, always is.)

True, hippo can survive a CC, I didn't run my calcs right. Although it's hardly gonna be in a position to counter luke late game with SR damage, and possible other damage from other pokes. And even if it does survive CC, its not gonna be surviving any more attacks.

And I really wouldn't put dusknoir as a counter to Luke, because it's really taking a risk if Luke has crunch or not, which it usually does. To be a counter, it has to actually counter the set, and I think you would have to know if Luke had crunch before switching in dusky first to act as a counter.

You can't counter a poke unless you know it's moveset. :/
 
Skarmory is almost always has a close to a 3% chance to survive a SD'ed CC from the standard LOcario, with stealth rock up. (which let's be honest, always is.)
That's true, but in truth I tell you that I have not yet used Skarmory in a my Team. I like to Forretress! xD

True, hippo can survive a CC, I didn't run my calcs right. Although it's hardly gonna be in a position to counter luke late game with SR damage, and possible other damage from other pokes. And even if it does survive CC, its not gonna be surviving any more attacks.
Hippowdon resists Stealth Rock and the damage is completely recovered from Leftovers. Moreover, Hippowdon can use Slack Off for recover HP.

And I really wouldn't put dusknoir as a counter to Luke, because it's really taking a risk if Luke has crunch or not, which it usually does. To be a counter, it has to actually counter the set, and I think you would have to know if Luke had crunch before switching in dusky first to act as a counter.

You can't counter a poke unless you know it's moveset. :/
I also quote on this, but the statistics of Smogon server can help. =)
 

LightWolf

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SrafTran counters(in case of SpecLuke revenge kills) it whitout knowing its move set. SpecLuke can only hit it whit Vacuum Wave, but then ghosts can switch in and he needs to switch. But other than that ScrafTran counters him, no need to know his move set,both priority moves are resisted(BP's damage is resisted by fire to so its easy to take it), Earth Power is a sure OHKO (if he stays in). Only in case Luke uses BP and ES, can Scraftran counter it.

Back to SpecLuke, a Vacuum Wave on the standard ScrafTran will only do 60.19% - 70.68% damage so if its switched in to revenge kill he still can take Luke down. So no need to know what type it is ScrafTran is a failsafe counter, in case of SpecLuke a revenge killer only.

(Ok if its a rare sub-salac luke and sets up a sub when you switch to heatran he can beat you, but I never saw that outside of the analysis, or the endure reversal version, but those don't have priority moves, anything whit one can revenge KO it whit a priority move if it reached max Reversal damage)
 
SrafTran counters it whitout knowing its move set. SpecLuke can only hit it whit Vacuum Wave, but then ghosts can switch in and he needs to switch. But other than ScrafTran counters him, no need to know his move set,both priority moves are resisted(BP's damage is resisted by fire to so its easy to take it), Earth Power is a sure OHKO (if he stays in).

Back to SpecLuke, a Vacuum Wave on the standard ScrafTran will only do 60.19% - 70.68% damage so if its switched in to revenge kill he still can take Luke down. So no need to know what type it is ScrafTran is a failsafe counter.

(Ok if its a rare sub-salac luke and sets up a sub when you switch to heatran he can beat you, but I never saw that outside of the analysis, or the endure reversal version, but those don't have priority moves, anything whit one can revenge KO it whit a priority move if it reached max Reversal damage)
Heatran, Scarfed or not, can't switch into Lucario, fearing a close combat/aura sphere. Therefore, by definition, it is not a counter, only a revenge killer or whatever you want to call it.
 

LightWolf

lightwoof
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Heatran, Scarfed or not, can't switch into Lucario, fearing a close combat/aura sphere. Therefore, by definition, it is not a counter, only a revenge killer or whatever you want to call it.
I countered Lukes whit my Scraftran many times, most go the safe route against something thats faster and ES, and Heatran can switch in to a ES, but yes in case of SpecLuke I said it can only revenge kill(I did not say the word "only", but revenge kill is there) I will edit in to make it clear that it can switch on ES and BP only, and that it can only revenge kill SpecLuke.
 

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