When selecting a cutoff lets bear in mind that all tiers are likely to centralize significantly as they settle. What may result in a 40 Pokemon OU tier today may end up as 30 in a year's time, or even less.
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Basing UU and NU off usage stats
- Thread starter coyotte508
- Start date
Well, how many times does a user battle in a day on average? That seems like the best general area for a cutoff IMO, unless I'm severely underestimating (or even overestimating) how many times the typical user battles.
Once again I think I was wrong about how X-act calculated the statistics again (can someone who actually knows how he did it post or something I'm scrounging around pokemetrics and policy review trying to find shit lol). Though looking back through it now (i hope i'm not wrong this time!) the current formula calculates how many Pokemon appear among 20 random teams at least once more often than not.
But anyway, read this thread as it goes through at least some of his formula and shows what the result of lowering T would be relative to the current number of OU: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45752 (In which the current T we uses produced an OU of 49 while the T of 10 that I think is what we should use would have produced 28, a much better number imo)
Anyway I'm pretty sure rbg currently calculates the OU list so it'd be nice to have him in this discussion since all I see right now are a bunch of uninformed people (including me) talk about how to change the formula when the formula is fine I just think T should be lowered and always have. It'd be nice to reevaluate it going into b/w. If you look at the bottom of DPP OU right now it's clear that none of those Pokemon are OU and there are two ways to fix this I think: by making statistics weighted or by lowering T in the OU formula from 20 to 10. Picking some arbitrary static number (which you're proposing with 5%) makes things simpler but it doesn't reflect the metagame as well as X-act's formula so we definitely should not change the base formula.
But anyway, read this thread as it goes through at least some of his formula and shows what the result of lowering T would be relative to the current number of OU: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45752 (In which the current T we uses produced an OU of 49 while the T of 10 that I think is what we should use would have produced 28, a much better number imo)
Anyway I'm pretty sure rbg currently calculates the OU list so it'd be nice to have him in this discussion since all I see right now are a bunch of uninformed people (including me) talk about how to change the formula when the formula is fine I just think T should be lowered and always have. It'd be nice to reevaluate it going into b/w. If you look at the bottom of DPP OU right now it's clear that none of those Pokemon are OU and there are two ways to fix this I think: by making statistics weighted or by lowering T in the OU formula from 20 to 10. Picking some arbitrary static number (which you're proposing with 5%) makes things simpler but it doesn't reflect the metagame as well as X-act's formula so we definitely should not change the base formula.
That thread gives clarifications:
That also contradicts what he says later:
From the first definition, T = 1 would mean 50% usage, from the second definition it would mean 100% usage.
I don't understand why using the first definition instead of the simple "A pokemon is OU if it is at least in one of out 20 teams" (which is the second definition). But at least the 3.41% number doesn't appear arbitrary anymore.
PS: Thanks for the link. It gives all the clarification about the current OU formula and you can disregard all what I said before between PO's and Shoddy's statistics differences, because that's outdated.
And the definition used is
So in short, let's say you take 1000 samples of 20 random teams, a pokemon would be OU if it's at least in 501 of those samples. That's the current definition. But it doesn't represent a 1/20 ratio at all. Because pokemon used in 1/29 teams are OU by that definition.
That also contradicts what he says later:
Because that's actually not the same thing.
From the first definition, T = 1 would mean 50% usage, from the second definition it would mean 100% usage.
I don't understand why using the first definition instead of the simple "A pokemon is OU if it is at least in one of out 20 teams" (which is the second definition). But at least the 3.41% number doesn't appear arbitrary anymore.
PS: Thanks for the link. It gives all the clarification about the current OU formula and you can disregard all what I said before between PO's and Shoddy's statistics differences, because that's outdated.