Conkeldurr (Analysis) [QC 3/3]

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Duly noted. I will be going on vacation so when I return ( august 4th my bday :o ) I will be able to make those changes. On the Conkeldurr thread I made a pretty large post explaining why sheer force is severely outclassed by Guts.

Other than that I think we have every single thing conkeldurr can run covered.
 

Colonel M

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Heh.

Also, under Additional Comments for the Flame Orb set, Speed EVs should be mentioned as well as the use of ThunderPunch over Payback. You can also mention how the Conkeldurr can opt to use Superpower over Drain Punch or Mach Punch, though of course we have to bear in mind that using Superpower makes Conkeldurr questionable to other Guts users that have much more serviceable options for Fighting-type attacks and possibly the Speed advantage on Conk. IMO I think Mach Punch is the more replaceable move of choice if you're using Speed EVs, but I didn't test that part out sadly. I was just using Drain / Mach / Ice / Thunder punches.

[qc]2/3[/qc]
 

Pocket

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Adding to what Colonel_M said - Conkeldurr can invest enough Speed EVs to be faster than Skarmory / min Spe Scizor / Jellicent (~183 Speed).

Not really digging the Superpower suggestion, since it negates Conky's precious Atk boost after 1 use. I'd much rather use Hammer Arm for a strong Fighting alternative over Drain Punch.
 
Adding to what Colonel_M said - Conkeldurr can invest enough Speed EVs to be faster than Skarmory / min Spe Scizor / Jellicent (~183 Speed).

Not really digging the Superpower suggestion, since it negates Conky's precious Atk boost after 1 use. I'd much rather use Hammer Arm for a strong Fighting alternative over Drain Punch.
I'm just curious what those speed EV's would accomplish other than hitting something before they recover. The bulk or power lost doesn't seem to be worth it at all. Skarmory won't recover on Conkeldurr because it would be hit super-effectively by its Fighting-STAB had it been slower. Jellicent would have been hit harder by a slower Payback which I assume would be replaced by ThunderPunch. Scizor is questionable because you avoid being hit by Superpower. However if I calc'ed it correctly with Scizor doing absolute max and you doing absolute min your total loss of health with the current spread is 38% as opposed to 43%. The "opposed spread" is assuming you are running a spread of 28 HP / 252 Atk / 228 Spd Adamant (to hit 183) and facing a full health scizor. If you run a spread of 92 HP / 252 Atk / 164 Spd Jolly you do slightly better with a loss of 42% health but lose out on quite a bit of power. This isn't even considering that Scizor could always reserve the option of using Bullet Punch if you decide to use Drain Punch which still hits pretty hard at 45.18 - 53.2% on the Jolly Spread.

I agree with Pocket that Hammer Arm>Superpower. Hammer Arm still has the ability to 2HKO Skarmory after SR and a neutral Hammer Arm is just as strong as a 2x super-effective elemental punch. More important than the attack drop, Hammer Arm also prevents Skarmory (or any other Poke) from utilizing the defense drop to KO you. However Pocket I would note that Superpower and to a lesser extent Hammer Arm is much more apt for someone running Toxic Orb than Drain Punch because of the hit and run style Toxic Orb forces.

ThunderPunch has been OO mentioned so it could be applicable for both sets. The recommendation is already there in a way
 

Pocket

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Well it's nice to not tank a hit from Skarmory's Brave Bird, Jellicent's Scald, Scizor's Superpower if Conkeldurr can avoid it. I also agree that ThunderPunch has very little utility, since Facade & Payback provides all the power and coverage the set needs. However, I guess it's nice for the potential 2HKO against Skarmory without needing to be slower, and I guess against Gyarados.
 

Colonel M

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The main point of the Speed EVs is to get the jump on the walls before they can strike at you. What you're using Drain Punch for is roughly the same, but instead you have the possibility of getting around being damaged by an attack. In other words - you are able to preserve your health a little better. Obviously, there is the minor drawback of instances where a Pokemon possibly stays in on Conkeldurr and you don't recover as much health as you normally would have. Here's your examples:

Impish Skarmory

Drain Punch - 37.42 - 44.01%
ThunderPunch - 49.7 - 58.68%

Now obviously I know what you're going to say - on minimum rolls, this would fail to 2HKO Skarmory. So in Skarmory's scenario, you would have to use ThunderPunch when it switches in. Still, with SR + Leftovers taken into account, the minimum Skarmory takes is 90.12%.

But the main thing is that you're trying to outspeed walls / bulkier Pokemon for the sake of getting two hits in before the opponent gets in one. Yes, there are some inferior disadvantages to doing it, and it's fine if you're deterred by running Speed. Still, that's why it's only in AC and not in the main set - this way you don't have to play a mind game if Skarmory is going to Roost or if it's going to simply Brave Bird you into kingdom come.
Not really digging the Superpower suggestion, since it negates Conky's precious Atk boost after 1 use. I'd much rather use Hammer Arm for a strong Fighting alternative over Drain Punch.
On the bulkier set, I definitely agree about Hammer Arm > Superpower. The set doesn't really care too much about Speed except maybe to Facade Reuniclus and it sort of helps Payback a little bit more. The Def drop is also nasty.

On the faster set, I would disagree. First, Superpower gets the OHKO on Scizor after SR, so the worst case scenario is you taking a Bullet Punch. Still, let's think about it - Scizor likely isn't going to Bullet Punch a Conkeldurr unless it's fairly low on health. It'll probably U-turn thinking it's faster, at least on Choice Band. To put it into perspective:

Superpower - 99.7 - 117.15%
Hammer Arm - 83.13 - 97.67%

Superpower also does roughly 59% minimum to Physically Defensive Skarmory, so a Drain Punch followed by Superpower will sack it without a major issue, assuming Stealth Rock is in play.

Also the main point with ThunderPunch is mostly for the faster set - hitting Slowbro, Jellicent, and Skarmory with the same attack. Don't bother with it on the slower set since Facade / Payback hits the former two Pokemon harder and Skarmory has to play carefully around Drain Punch anyway.
 

Pocket

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I personally feel Superpower is much more fitting on a CB Conkeldurr than Status Orb. Superpower forces Conkeldurr to retreat, which fits CB Durr's hit-and-run style as opposed to Status Orb, who'd rather stick around as long as possible to dish out damage rather than being nullified after the 1st turn.

However, I guess it's worth an AC mention to OHKO Scizor with the alternative spread.
 

Colonel M

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Status Orb can kind of play hit-and-run style. Still, I would imagine Superpower replacing Mach Punch. It ruins the niche but at least you have Drain Punch when you don't want to retreat constantly.

It's only AC-worthy. I would sooner put Hammer Arm in the current set than Superpower.
 
No mention of Sub-Disable gengar walling the Bulk Up set?

edit: And the Status Orb set if not using Facade.
 

ginganinja

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No mention of Sub-Disable gengar walling the Bulk Up set?
Because technically, it doesn't. If Conkeldurr predicts the disable, it can Mach Punch, in which case Gengar disables the Mach Punch and Conkeldurr wins. To be fair, its prediction heavy on both sides, but I really dislike Gengar being referred to as a counter, when I don't really consider it to be one.
 
Finishing up on Bulk Up Conkeldurr tonight just wondering what QC's thought would be on a more specially defensive spread for it (and what that spread might ultimately be).
 

Pocket

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Doughboy is too busy to finish this up, so Conkeldurr is being re-assigned. It's already half-written (although with some formatting errors), so if anyone want to complete the rest, it would be much appreciated.
 

Pocket

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I implemented most of the major changes via SCMS, so this can be locked now.
 
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