Ace Emerald what are your thoughts?
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NOC Great Idea Mafia-Game Over! Mafia, vonFiedler, and More Cowbell win!
- Thread starter shinyskarmory
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Ugh I don't even know man, we have people believing and accusing everywhere and I don't know who's scummy or just misguided @.@ I'm hesitant to throw a vote out there when we're not sure what's up; wish we had an inspector atm. Maybe we should no lynch and gather more information?
I'm about to leave and probably won't be back for deadline. Right now, if we were to lynch someone, I would be most comfortable with a starwarsfan lynch.
Unvote
Lynch starwarsfan
Not much else I can do for now, I hope we made the right decision by letting obbmud off the hook for now and going for other targets.
Unvote
Lynch starwarsfan
Not much else I can do for now, I hope we made the right decision by letting obbmud off the hook for now and going for other targets.
We won't really gain anything new by NLing, but it's better than a halfassed lynch. Also NO MORE VOTES ON SWF, actually I'd like nitrox to unvote for now even, I don't want to give mafia a chance to hit majority(I think he is at at least L-2...)
Also Celever getting stealthed is not really a worry as long as people are reasonable with their votes, the assumed majority tomorrow will be 5 votes, so if we keep people for putting 2 votes on someone while we argue about the lynch, we are completely safe from that(the problems actually come from it being a LYLO we can't actually win from, but that is still better than doubting ourselves, I'm p sure our current mindsets would waver the second swf claims anything but simple villager, and then we only possibly gave mafia another piece of info). I don't like it as much as you Celever, but at this point it's too late to get in an actual lynch here I think.(I feel responsible for this because of wasting time, eh not really since I actually was going for a lynch I thought I could make happen...)
Also Celever getting stealthed is not really a worry as long as people are reasonable with their votes, the assumed majority tomorrow will be 5 votes, so if we keep people for putting 2 votes on someone while we argue about the lynch, we are completely safe from that(the problems actually come from it being a LYLO we can't actually win from, but that is still better than doubting ourselves, I'm p sure our current mindsets would waver the second swf claims anything but simple villager, and then we only possibly gave mafia another piece of info). I don't like it as much as you Celever, but at this point it's too late to get in an actual lynch here I think.(I feel responsible for this because of wasting time, eh not really since I actually was going for a lynch I thought I could make happen...)
I don't think I'll be available to update on time because of unavoidable IRL circumstances, deadline has been extended to 8 this evening (4 more hours)
All right then, thanks to the extended deadline, I'll unvote for the moment.
But, LightWolf: Do you really think any information we'll gain from No Lynching counterbalances the cost of losing another villager? I feel like we really ought to target someone today... otherwise, we'll just be putting ourselves in a worse situation.
As for minor reads for a potential lynch target... I've voiced my opinions on you and Celever, spiresquire and Ace Emerald haven't really done anything all that suspicious, and I don't feel like we have enough time to get a vote going against the remaining experienced players (Walrein, MC). Obbmud has done suspicious things, but I don't feel like a lone Mason is a good mafia claim, so he's out... Pokeguy hasn't posted enough to warrant a lynch on a MYLO day... to be honest, that just leaves swf, Tesung, and a No Lynch. Do you think that we should try to target one of them during the remaining 4 hours we have or just let the day go by and hope we have more information tomorrow?
But, LightWolf: Do you really think any information we'll gain from No Lynching counterbalances the cost of losing another villager? I feel like we really ought to target someone today... otherwise, we'll just be putting ourselves in a worse situation.
As for minor reads for a potential lynch target... I've voiced my opinions on you and Celever, spiresquire and Ace Emerald haven't really done anything all that suspicious, and I don't feel like we have enough time to get a vote going against the remaining experienced players (Walrein, MC). Obbmud has done suspicious things, but I don't feel like a lone Mason is a good mafia claim, so he's out... Pokeguy hasn't posted enough to warrant a lynch on a MYLO day... to be honest, that just leaves swf, Tesung, and a No Lynch. Do you think that we should try to target one of them during the remaining 4 hours we have or just let the day go by and hope we have more information tomorrow?
As I said, I'd love to lynch someone, but as it stands it'd be such rushed decision that'd likely just still be swayed into a no lynch either way, ending up revealing another guy's role in all likelihood...
What we are buying from this is more time for us to make this game ending decision. I do suggest that you as the 100% clean person go through the thread one more time quickly and then post all your reads, since whatever we do, you are the most likely to die if we have no protection.
What we are buying from this is more time for us to make this game ending decision. I do suggest that you as the 100% clean person go through the thread one more time quickly and then post all your reads, since whatever we do, you are the most likely to die if we have no protection.
Just checking on the thread now I'm back home and nothing really happened, I don't see much of a reason to change my vote on starwarsfan. This time I definitely won't be around for deadline; that's 2:30 AM for me, and while I love you all dearly, I don't love you that dearly, especially not when I need to get up at 7 tomorrow.
Gladly, LW. I'm not sure that they'll be very helpful, though. I feel like I'm not quite experienced enough at this, and that I feel that most people seem town. I do wish that we could lynch somebody today, though... ah well. With T minus two hours to the deadline, I somehow doubt it.
Celever: Celever seems to have reasonable logic throughout, and doesn't seem to be playing cautiously enough to be a mafia (like LW mentioned). I don't see any incorrect logic, and I feel like a mafia member would have crumbled more quickly against LW. Town.
LightWolf: LW plays aggressively, and did get pretty worked up during his feud with Celever. Some of the points he stressed seemed pretty inconsequential, but his analyses of the situation do seem to keep the village's best interest in mind, and I don't believe that a mafia member would get so worked up. Then again, LW has shown that he's an expert at putting up a facade. Town, with reservations.
Obbmud99: Obbmud has been posting pretty suspiciously with his reluctance to vote Ullar and his playing dumb at the beginning. However, his claim of lone Mason would be incredibly risky if he was a mafia member. However, he could have known the risks of claiming vanillager and chosen to go with the riskier choice of Mason. He seems town for the moment.
Paperblade/@PokeguyNXB: Not enough information to get a read on him. Also, Pokeguy, POST NOW.
Walrein: He hasn't posted a whole lot to be honest. He seems to generally have the village's best interests in mind, targeting swf and obbmud, who were both being pretty suspicious. He did make great, convincing points against Felony and seemed to lead the lynch against him. This might be suspicious, since Felony turned out town. He hasn't done anything all that suspicious, but he's experienced enough not to. Not enough evidence for a lynch yet, but keep an eye on him.
Ace Emerald: He made a good point about the whole offensive/defensive discussion. Hasn't done anything suspicious. Town.
Da Letter El/Tesung: After the subbing, Tesung started posting with that whole scumhunting is bad thing (admittedly, a good explanation was provided.) Definitely some bandwagoning going on there as well. Hasn't said all that much besides some really basic reads on everyone. Very few posts have been substantial. Also, Tesung just posted asking swf to claim, something that I thought we decided shouldn't happen. Potentially mafia, but I'm leaning noobtown.
Empoof/spiresquire: Started playing with pretty long, substantial posts... I liked the system that he used with questions to try to fool a mafia member into saying how many mafia there were. While I doubt any mafia would fall for this, it was still something that I doubt a mafia member would have thought of. Town.
More Cowbell: I see nothing suspicious from my brief review of the thread. Town.
starwarsfan: Sort of suspicious if you ask me. He had an awkward start with accidentally jumping on the Ullar wagon. He again seemed to bandwagon obbmud (for what seemed like good reason, though). He did target Tesung, which would be weird if they were both mafia. He posted an analysis of the pretty clean Ace, claiming that he would do one for every player in the game but never following through. He hasn't said anything all that substantial. I feel like there's enough evidence to conclude that he's mafia.
Celever: Celever seems to have reasonable logic throughout, and doesn't seem to be playing cautiously enough to be a mafia (like LW mentioned). I don't see any incorrect logic, and I feel like a mafia member would have crumbled more quickly against LW. Town.
LightWolf: LW plays aggressively, and did get pretty worked up during his feud with Celever. Some of the points he stressed seemed pretty inconsequential, but his analyses of the situation do seem to keep the village's best interest in mind, and I don't believe that a mafia member would get so worked up. Then again, LW has shown that he's an expert at putting up a facade. Town, with reservations.
Obbmud99: Obbmud has been posting pretty suspiciously with his reluctance to vote Ullar and his playing dumb at the beginning. However, his claim of lone Mason would be incredibly risky if he was a mafia member. However, he could have known the risks of claiming vanillager and chosen to go with the riskier choice of Mason. He seems town for the moment.
Paperblade/@PokeguyNXB: Not enough information to get a read on him. Also, Pokeguy, POST NOW.
Walrein: He hasn't posted a whole lot to be honest. He seems to generally have the village's best interests in mind, targeting swf and obbmud, who were both being pretty suspicious. He did make great, convincing points against Felony and seemed to lead the lynch against him. This might be suspicious, since Felony turned out town. He hasn't done anything all that suspicious, but he's experienced enough not to. Not enough evidence for a lynch yet, but keep an eye on him.
Ace Emerald: He made a good point about the whole offensive/defensive discussion. Hasn't done anything suspicious. Town.
Da Letter El/Tesung: After the subbing, Tesung started posting with that whole scumhunting is bad thing (admittedly, a good explanation was provided.) Definitely some bandwagoning going on there as well. Hasn't said all that much besides some really basic reads on everyone. Very few posts have been substantial. Also, Tesung just posted asking swf to claim, something that I thought we decided shouldn't happen. Potentially mafia, but I'm leaning noobtown.
Empoof/spiresquire: Started playing with pretty long, substantial posts... I liked the system that he used with questions to try to fool a mafia member into saying how many mafia there were. While I doubt any mafia would fall for this, it was still something that I doubt a mafia member would have thought of. Town.
More Cowbell: I see nothing suspicious from my brief review of the thread. Town.
starwarsfan: Sort of suspicious if you ask me. He had an awkward start with accidentally jumping on the Ullar wagon. He again seemed to bandwagon obbmud (for what seemed like good reason, though). He did target Tesung, which would be weird if they were both mafia. He posted an analysis of the pretty clean Ace, claiming that he would do one for every player in the game but never following through. He hasn't said anything all that substantial. I feel like there's enough evidence to conclude that he's mafia.
Also, Tesung, swf is at L-3 votes. We don't want to be vulnerable to the mafia pushing it over if he's not town, and like LW said, a claim could just be giving more information to the mafia. However, I'm pretty uncomfortable with getting the day done with a No Lynch... but the penalty is losing.
One thing I'm wondering; it seems to me like a few people are suddenly focusing on me without bringing any new information to the table. All the information and suspicions on me have been in the open for a while, but suddenly someone (i forget who, MC i think) decided to jump on me. Why is that I'm wondering?
Also, as for the reason obbmud would claim mason > vanillager: It was quite clear that Obbmud was going to get lynched, a claim of vanillager would probably have done nothing. However, a claim of mason has a decent chance of allowing him to live (53.670876984% chance of there being no masons itg i think). Therefore, it was necessary for him to take this gambit imo.
Also, as for the reason obbmud would claim mason > vanillager: It was quite clear that Obbmud was going to get lynched, a claim of vanillager would probably have done nothing. However, a claim of mason has a decent chance of allowing him to live (53.670876984% chance of there being no masons itg i think). Therefore, it was necessary for him to take this gambit imo.
First of all, I believe the chance of there being no masons at all is:
I claimed mason because that is what I am, and you yourself told me to do so. It was not much of a gambit, because that was my last defense. How else would I know that there is one mason and that is me?
Also, due to the three villagers that all died with abilities, I believe it is very likely that there would be at least two vanilla town left, and I am probably on the hit list somewhere because I have declared village. Just keep that in mind.
What?
Part 1: YOU say you know that. I say I'm village. If we are to 100% believe that you are the only mason, then we should 100% believe that I am village. Even if my math was wrong (I ignored the people already dead), you still had no choice to play the odds and claim mason as it was completely obvious that you would have been lynched if you had claimed something like vanillager. Your logic in that post makes no sense, it is just saying "I'm village, I'm village, don't lynch me," which Celever has already explained is bad.
Part 2: If you claim village, you will be on a mafia hit list? How does that make sense? Shouldn't everyone claim village?!?! I declare myself village. I doubt I'm a higher priority on a mafia hit list now than I was, which appears to be what you think.
The difference is that a lone Mason is a risky claim and is very easy to disprove. Claiming village shouldn't really put him higher on the mafia hitlist, mostly because there's still so much suspicion directed at him (as you said, he could have known that vanillager wouldn't have been a good claim).
It looks like the day's going to end in a No Lynch anyway, so I suppose we'll get more information then.
It looks like the day's going to end in a No Lynch anyway, so I suppose we'll get more information then.
Day 3, Final Vote Count
(11) Not quite at the final frontier:
(majority is 6 votes)
1. Ace Emerald (0):
4. Celever (1):Obbmud99, LightWolf
5. Tesung (1): Obbmud99
6. spiresquire (0):
8. LightWolf (0):Celever
9. Nitrox116 (0):
10. More Cowbell (0):
11. Obbmud99 (1): Tesung,Celever, Nitrox116
12. PokeguyNXB (1):Nitrox116, Celever
13. starwarsfan (2): Walrein,Nitrox116, More Cowbell
15. Walrein (0):Obbmud99
No Lynch (0):starwarsfan More Cowbell
Not voting: Ace Emerald, Celever, Tesung, spiresquire, LightWolf, Nitrox116
Nobody was lynched.
I think I have a sub for Walrein, will announce them if/when they PM me back.
It is now Night 3. Please get your actions in on time; this is a crucial night for everybody involved. Deadline is in 24 hours as usual.
(11) Not quite at the final frontier:
(majority is 6 votes)
1. Ace Emerald (0):
4. Celever (1):
5. Tesung (1): Obbmud99
6. spiresquire (0):
8. LightWolf (0):
9. Nitrox116 (0):
10. More Cowbell (0):
11. Obbmud99 (1): Tesung,
12. PokeguyNXB (1):
13. starwarsfan (2): Walrein,
15. Walrein (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not voting: Ace Emerald, Celever, Tesung, spiresquire, LightWolf, Nitrox116
Nobody was lynched.
I think I have a sub for Walrein, will announce them if/when they PM me back.
It is now Night 3. Please get your actions in on time; this is a crucial night for everybody involved. Deadline is in 24 hours as usual.
cxinlee has subbed in for Walrein.
running out of plot, not that there was any to begin with
Nitrox116 was killed.
Day 4, LYLO Vote Count 1
Today is LYLO. If the village does not successfully lynch a mafia member or neutral whose win condition conflicts with theirs, they will lose the game. You MUST REACH MAJORITY to lynch.
(10) Reports of their death were greatly exaggerated
(majority is 6 votes)
1. Ace Emerald (0):
4. Celever (0):
5. Tesung (0):
6. spiresquire (0):
8. LightWolf (0):
10. More Cowbell (0):
11. Obbmud99 (0):
12. PokeguyNXB (0):
13. starwarsfan (0):
15.Walrein cxinlee (0):
Not Voting: Everyone
Next Vote Count: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 15th (24 hours away)
Next Deadline Review: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 16th (48 hours away)
Deadline set at: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 17th (72 hours away)
Carry on.
Nitrox116 was killed.
Day 4, LYLO Vote Count 1
Today is LYLO. If the village does not successfully lynch a mafia member or neutral whose win condition conflicts with theirs, they will lose the game. You MUST REACH MAJORITY to lynch.
(10) Reports of their death were greatly exaggerated
(majority is 6 votes)
1. Ace Emerald (0):
4. Celever (0):
5. Tesung (0):
6. spiresquire (0):
8. LightWolf (0):
10. More Cowbell (0):
11. Obbmud99 (0):
12. PokeguyNXB (0):
13. starwarsfan (0):
15.
Not Voting: Everyone
Next Vote Count: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 15th (24 hours away)
Next Deadline Review: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 16th (48 hours away)
Deadline set at: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 17th (72 hours away)
Carry on.
I'm shocked you didn't die n1 or n2. I'll do reads on the remaining players when I get back to my laptop.
Honestly not too surprising that our mayor died. Welcome to cxinlee, I hope you'll be a little more active than Walrein :P
Also, if PokeguyNXB doesn't get to posting real soon I propose a lynch on him just because of that alone, he's had two full cycles to cook up something useful by now.
Also, if PokeguyNXB doesn't get to posting real soon I propose a lynch on him just because of that alone, he's had two full cycles to cook up something useful by now.
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