NOC Matrix 12 NOC - Game Over, Mafia Wins

[Empoof]

I'm just not really sure what to do about this information tbqh, it's such a bizarre set-up that it almost doesn't really tell us anything

 

[MoodyCloud]

Is there anyone else who wants to say that they found the jk so I can feel dumb for not seeing it

And how do people feel about the Knights/Jalmont page 6/7 interaction ? I'm leaning genuine

 

[MoodyCloud]

Unless you're convinced that stating the target would out the jk I don't see the point in not telling it tbh

 

[Empoof]

About Jalmont:

Are you trying to be unreadable here or do you have some other goal you're trying to achieve.

Good look

 

[Empoof]

Unless you're convinced that stating the target would out the jk I don't see the point in not telling it tbh

Well I don't really think it changes things drastically or should effect peoples reads on players so I don't think it's worth spilling. Also yeah if I say the name scum could just search for it and might find the soft.

But it does insensitive scum to claim VT instead of JK which is a nice plus >:)

 

[MoodyCloud]

Why did people townread Aubisio/DLE again aside from Aubisio's first post ?

 

[Empoof]

I'm going to do something really gross today. I'm going to read over all of yeti's posts.

Fuck my life

 

[MoodyCloud]

I might've looked too much at who had expressed even a slight scumread on Jalmont/Hitmonleet and not enough at the tone of people's interactions with them (or lack thereof). Feels like I'm going somewhere again which is nice

 

[Empoof]

Why did people townread Aubisio/DLE again aside from Aubisio's first post ?

DLE was tone/vibes iirc, I can look at this later in the phase. When I was a worse player I nailed DLE as a godfather type role so I might be over inflating my ability to read him quickly

 

[Panic Station]

About Jalmont:


Good look

That was about Josh, back before I regained my zen and started reading him without rage goggles on.

 

[Empoof]

I might've looked too much at who had expressed even a slight scumread on Jalmont/Hitmonleet and not enough at the tone of people's interactions with them (or lack thereof). Feels like I'm going somewhere again which is nice

I agree keep going through interactions, that knights one was v nice

 

[Empoof]

That was about Josh, back before I regained my zen and started reading him without rage goggles on.

fuck i need to eat

 

[Panic Station]

My take on Jalmont was his half-assed "voting >>> discussion" idea might've been scummy, but I couldn't be certain unless he acted on it.

Jalmont's "vote through the stall" strat has a slight opportunism feel to it, but as long as he doesn't try to put his money where is mouth is I'm considering it null.

RQS/Nullmont: Jalmont's anti-discussion comment caught my eye and warranted further scrutiny, so I engaged him to get a better read on him. At first it seemed like a potential scumtell, but- having gotten him to elaborate- now I think would only be so if he actually tries to tuck a vote into a stalled day. Without action tied to it, it's just half-formed lip service imo.

 

[MoodyCloud]

Why isn't half-formed lip service scummy

 

[Panic Station]

Because the action shows more motivation than what might just be a bad idea.

 

[Panic Station]

Let's use Haruno as an example. Just talking setup spec at a bad time isn't necessarily scummy. Getting other players involved in D1 setup spec at the cost of scumhunting seems scummier than just Haruno talking.

 

[MoodyCloud]

I don't really agree since I'm getting super suspicious of people who have expressed doubts or scum leans on Jalmont/Leet but haven't been vocal about pushing their reads ie Blazade slot

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

MoodyCloud

Please tell me how your top three scum reads are with detailed explanations. Please do the same for your town reads.

Who do you think should be lynched today?

Why have you been advocating for info flips the past two days vs targeting possible scum flips?

For each of your top scum reads who do you think is their most likely partner?

What are your thoughts on each of these slots individually: LightWolf, Empoof, Yeti?



LightWolf: hi! want to talk about anything?

 

[Yeti]

Hawkie wanna check in for the day

 

[Yeti]

Someone remind me which setup we're playing? Let's like triple check to make sure his claim is there lmfao

:thinking: does this strike anyone else as.. insincere?

the forum apparently disagrees with me as it wont let me post this.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

yeti who are you looking at today other than NOTMOODYCLOUD?

 

[Yeti]

fort's awareness that his slot has several reasons to be scumread seems... high level. i feel like he's scumreading his own slot from the perspective of the rest of us harder than any of us actually do.

campaigning for himself to be lynched to "help town" obviously doesn't seem scum-minded and i would be wondering who his teammate is that's feeding him this strategy. i think asek is out of contention due to subbing out, whoever it is was the same d4 and d5.

the evidence would most clearly lead to me being fort's partner since his slot saved mine on d1 and yeah i probably would be likely to coach someone to play that way.

lightwolf seems like an unlikely fort partner to be prompting this bc he just subbed in. lw is also too paranoid to think scumreading yourself is a Good Idea.

texas is probably the most likely person besides myself to be a fort partner giving him direction to scumread himself. idk if this is actually within texas's noc wheelhouse of stunts but like, i really doubt moody is telling fort to pull this lol.

when i as fort's teammate asked him in popcorn if his scumbuddies wrote his bigpost for him he kind of joked around instead of denying it. i feel like hes doing the same thing in this game where someone says smth suspicious and rather than defend or address it he jokes like it's serious. i think i might be being set up as his partner tbh.

idk i appreciate his awareness that his slot looks bad but i think he makes his slot sound worse than anyone else does and it strikes me as... odd.

 

[Yeti]

hawkie

rvs ; pblade ; vote 2
rvs ; walrein ; vote 1
rvs ; jalmont ; vote 1
mid d1 ; hitmonleet ; vote 1
mid d1 ; ullar ; vote 1 (note: other people had voted ullar earlier but at the time hawkie placed it i believe this was the only vote and it is like 100+ posts earlier than the rest of the wagon)
sod2 ; former hope ; vote 1
sod2 ; unvote
mid d2 ; hitmonleet ; vote 1
mid d2 ; king ; vote 4
late-eod2 ; hitmonleet ; vote 3 (note: a flood of hitmonleet votes come in right after this one)
sod3 ; yeti ; vote 1
sod3 ; hitmonleet ; vote 5
sod3 ; unvote
mid d4 ; ironic double ; vote 2

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analysis:
hawkie is at the start of a lot of votes (is vote 1 more frequently than any other #)
hawkie does not have any EoD activity, all votes are placed 200+ before the final posts of the day
hawkie shifting off king onto hitmonleet on d2 when leet was the counterwagon growing in strength and not back to king implies either sticking to the hard bus of leet or no partner-saving activities
hawkie placed no vote on d3 after unvoting hitmonleet, thus applying no further pressure to any other slots. was hitmonleet hawkie's only scumread or?
hawkie's involvement in the votes was equal d1+d2 then dropped d3 and again the in-progress d4
hawkie has never been on the winning wagon (2 mislynch 1 scum)

the late-eod shift off king onto hitmonleet implies town!hawkie to me. that vote could have gotten leet lynched and started a snowball of votes onto leet though ultimately king was the one who got lynched. scum!hawkie would have stuck onto king which hopefully either forces someone's hand in switching to king to avoid a tie or never sets off a bigger leet wagon. unless he REALLY wants that towncred.

blazade

rvs ; pblade ; vote 1
mid d1 ; moody ; vote 1
mid d1 ; ullar ; vote 1
mid d1 ; hitmonleet ; vote 2
mid d1 ; unvote
mid d1 ; ullar ; vote 2
sod2 ; king ; vote 3
late-eod2 ; hitmonleet ; vote 6 (note: this is the final vote placed onto the d2 leet bandwagon, ~200 posts before deadline hits, outside of king's preservation vote later)
sod3 ; hitmonleet ; vote 1
mid d3 ; unvote

blazade then went afk for his speedrun and was since subbed

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analysis:
blazade places a critical vote onto the d2 leet wagon that puts him at l-2 i believe? there were 14 people alive d2 so majority should've been 8
blazade kicks off d3 parking his vote on leet then removes it mid-d3
blazade then goes v/la due to irl and never places his vote (either again or back onto leet)
blazade had a lot more movement d1 then d2 just parked his vote on 2 established wagons
blazade never votes ullar after d1 even when the slot gets other votes
blazade has never been on the winning wagon (2 mislynch 1 scum)

i see blazade's voting pattern very similarly to hawkie's, actually. neither has any eod activity on any of the three days. their last votes on d2 were around the same time onto the same wagon. blazade's more directly would've led to hitmonleet's lynch. neither makes an attempt to switch off to save him. they both jumped around more d1 + onto ullar.

in fact their voting is almost scarily identical.

both end on ullar d1 last voting in the middle of it.
both end on hitmonleet d2 last voting near when eod2 starts.
both voted hitmonleet d3 then unvoted and ended d3 with no vote.

this is kind of a creepy similarity. i dont see it happening as scum where they go "hey lets vote identically to each other" unless hard bussing leet to clean both of them was part of the strategy. its just extremely weird to me that two villagers would have such near-identical progressions.

the only difference is hawkie rvs'd walrein and jalmont and blazade mid d1'd moody. otherwise the timing and placement of their votes is all veeeery similar.

 

[Yeti]

votes in common:

pblade: blazade 1st hawkie 2nd
hitmonleet: hawkie 1st blazade 2nd
ullar: blazade --> hawkie 1st blazade 2nd (blazade votes ullar first but when hawkie votes ullar, nobody else is on him)
king: blazade 1st hawkie 2nd
hitmonleet: hawkie 1st blazade 2nd
hitmonleet: blazade 1st hawkie 2nd
unvote: hawkie 1st blazade 2nd

i was gonna say that if one slot had been consistently 1st and the other 2nd the 2nd was proooobably scum who was trying to buddy like rssp1 said

but they trade off. blazade 3 hawkie 4.

they just straight up vote really similarly without one decisively copying the other.

grumble.

 

[Yeti]

man they both even voted ironic double d4 but lightwolf subs in so its a little harder to know hwo much this trend would've continued organically and hawkie doesnt end on id