NOC Matrix 12 NOC - Game Over, Mafia Wins

[Panic Station]

"call the bluff" vs "that's bad play as Town or scum"
I'm leaning towards "call the bluff" because he might be counting on wine to save him?

Also, just squishing votecounts against each other and saying "one scum here" isn't going to help unless you show the reasons for the votes.

 

[Yeti]

yeti who are you looking at today other than NOTMOODYCLOUD?

im gonna double on back (hue) to ironic double.

i also think knights and the asek/rssp1 slot will be my focuses.

fort would be my #4 lynch candidate.

hawkie's inactivity sprees rub me the wrong way but hawkie's in-thread hyphy spats rub me the right way. if hawkie WAS scum coasting with early consensus townreads the last thing he'd want to do is get into it with asek at EoD. or try and engage me with the spicy switches to me as EoD approached. sticking to 'easy' lynch pushes (and then if you wanted to mislynch me, killing josh is Not the way to do it) would be the way to do it. hawkie would look scummier if his vote shifts were solely between ID and pancake but the back and forth between me and pancake makes him look a bit more daring.

i just have this feeling that 1 of you and hawkie and asek is mafia tho and thats why i dont get a very certain feeling about any of the main lynch pool. i mean obv anyone whos mafia is gonna still be trying but idk.

i think my estimates of knights are dropping.

 

[Yeti]

:thinking: i didnt say 1 scum here ive said i think both are town bc of the vote patterns

idc about the reasons for any of those votes i just wanted to see if one of those slots was consistently voting the same target before the other, meaning the other was straight copycatting. its pretty even.

 

[rssp1]

quick question can you guys describe hawkie's playstyle and his pushes thus far (unless thats in the lw thing i havent read yet) because ive played with him a lot and i can probably get a good read on him
speaking of the lw thing what page could i find that on

 

[Yeti]

just search this thread for posted by: lightwolf

he has like 5 total posts

its the big one

 

[Yeti]

hawkie got into a d1 spergfight with ullar (who was in a fight with king) and came out of it hard scumreading ullar

he's mildly pushed me (subbed in for ullar) since but never strongly

hawkie voted leet d1 and has voted him since pushing him

hawkie had a big burst of activity at EoD4 where he switched votes between me and pancake a lot before deciding he townreads me and to lynch pancake

hawkie burstposts and has a lot of activity clustered within a few hours but otherwise pretty minimal activity during the rest of a day

i dont feel like he pushed anyone on d4 outside of as EoD approached except an earlier vote on ironic double

 

[MoodyCloud]

First of all I think that for Yeti to be scum there would need to be more than 1 scum on the counterwagon to Ullar d1
Votecount
Haruno (7): Walrein, Jalmont, KnightsofCydonia, King_, Da Letter El, Ullar, Texas Cloverleaf
Ullar (5): Hawkie, Blazade, Asek, Moodycloud, Haruno
Asek (1): Shubaka
King_ (1): Paperblade
Hitmonleet (1): Josh
Josh (1): Hitmonleet

Not Voting (1): Former Hope
Would require one of Knights,Fort or Texas to be the teammate and I don't get these vibes from them though to be fair I don't get heavy scumvibes from any one atm. Knights and Texas' interactions with Jalmont feel rather genuine, Fort's tone seem towny. I just don't buy scumYeti rn

Btw page 12 has Asek saying "jalmont has done nothing i can really read him for. i mean he voted me which i dont think he does as scum so theres that" and Ullar nullread Jalmont because he "doesn't remember enough of his posts"

 

[MoodyCloud]

asek is scum as well.
ullar town
king town
leet possible scum

What if

 

[MoodyCloud]

It's not impossible that scum got their teammate Ullar saved by just Jalmont and a bunch of town but it seems unlikely

 

[rssp1]

hawkie got into a d1 spergfight with ullar (who was in a fight with king) and came out of it hard scumreading ullar

he's mildly pushed me (subbed in for ullar) since but never strongly

hawkie voted leet d1 and has voted him since pushing him

hawkie had a big burst of activity at EoD4 where he switched votes between me and pancake a lot before deciding he townreads me and to lynch pancake

hawkie burstposts and has a lot of activity clustered within a few hours but otherwise pretty minimal activity during the rest of a day

i dont feel like he pushed anyone on d4 outside of as EoD approached except an earlier vote on ironic double

most of that sounds like normal hawkie regardless of alignment, the eod4 stuff looks like town to me. I'll check it out when i'm looking for lw's post later to be sure

 

[MoodyCloud]

FH was shady d1 but he always is to me, Id might be scum if you believe that he'd be the first to vote his teammate d2 and never unvote when hitmonleet was under scrutiny but not doomed yet

 

[Yeti]

if ID is scum i think that:

hawkie
blazade
texas
(pancake)
(josh)

are all town.

these 5 users all voted hitmonleet at some point in d1. we have seen two flip as town.

the main reason i see ID subbing into a scumslot and bussing his partner like that, never moving off, is they see five town on him D1. i find it unlikely that ID's partner is within those 5 voters and only 4 town are on leet prompting both ID and the other partner to BOTH bus leet after jalmont dies.

remember ID subbed in d2 after jalmont died so they would have some time to reconsider if they both wanted to hard bus leet. i'm not sure that with one of hawkie/blazade/texas already pushing leet D1 they agree ID should park his vote on him D2 as well. it'd look somewhat better if ID pushed a different read, I think, just to avoid putting TOO much pressure on leet.

if texas/blazade/josh are all town that's a lot of Names who latched onto leet D1.

that's why i think ID is by far the most likely leet hard pusher to be mafia.

 

[Yeti]

hitmonleet would've had 3 votes on him at once on D1 then 2 later singular votes

most other ppl maxed at 2 votes on them total in the day.

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Votecount
Moodycloud (2): Texas Cloverleaf, Lightwolf
Ironic Double (1): Fort Colorcastle
Yeti (1): Empoof

Not Voting (6): Hawkie, KnightsofCydonia, Ironic Double, Moodycloud, rssp1, Yeti

 

[MoodyCloud]

It might make sense to flip Id to check but I'm not that confident he'd hardbus Leet by starting the d2 wagon himself and then act like he was giving up when he was being voted, excessive plays to make as scum imo

 

[MoodyCloud]

Then again I've been wrong about Jalmont so lol

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

moody go answer my questions

 

[MoodyCloud]

cba to make a big organized post rn, watching a stream
I have no scumread i'm confident in
I've been targeting my poe pile as of yesterday (Fort/Knights/Pancake/Id) and trying to flip in there to make sure but it hasn't worked. Pancake was by far my most confident scumread in the game d4. Now I'm like Fort has some weird stuff going on but his tone feels towny and Aubisio's did too, Knights has interaction with Jalmont that feel genuine, Pancake flipped town. Id could be scum but you have to believe that he 100% gave up on Hitmonleet from the very start of 2 and that he risked being defeatist when a wagon was forming on him d4.

Town pool :
Empoof
Yeti (if Knights or Fort somehow flip scum I'd consider lynching this but I don't otherwise)
Fort
Knights
Hawkie (vote history screams town, gut says to be wary)
Texas (same with Jalmont interactions)

Are left Lightwolf, Rssp1 (I townread Asek pretty hard but the d1 relationship with Jalmont and my paranoia make me drop this one out of town pool), Ironicdouble.

 

[IronicDouble (‽)]

ah ive noticed the only times people nowadays post is the first 12 hours of the start of the day and the last 12 hours

i'll probably be studying for exams so pardon me if i only get on every day or so if you have things you want me to answer tag me lel

 

[Panic Station]

:thinking: i didnt say 1 scum here ive said i think both are town bc of the vote patterns

idc about the reasons for any of those votes i just wanted to see if one of those slots was consistently voting the same target before the other, meaning the other was straight copycatting. its pretty even.

Oh. I thought you were trying to figure out which one was pocketing the other.

 

[Yeti]

i was seeing if it looked like one was, the fact their voting patterns are split in who hops on which wagon first makes me think it's not a pocketing or buddy attempt

blazade was also a pretty common scumread while hawkie was verging on conftown reads so if it was blazade it really didn't work

 

[Hawkie]

10 pages K

Reading

 

[Hawkie]

Actual fuck off why is moody being voted

 

[Hawkie]

Setup 7

Hawkies recent activity has been mediocre

I was activE AS FUVK LAST DAY IM ON HOLIDAT AND UR GETTING THE 1AM-5AM POSTS FROM MY PHONE COUNT URSELF FUKIN LUKY

 

[Hawkie]

Asek / clc ironic gg

still love moody he's been really trying to make shit happen since we lynched a townie yesterday Texas activity spike rubs me the wrong way after Josh who hard TR'd him died.

Fort and ID if either are scum they've been using shitty noob tactics and I'll be seriously disappointed if thats the case. ID > fart though for defeatism yesterday which I've seen him use quite a few times and the half ass reads post then excuse for inactivity makes me want to puke all over his face