Serious The Politics Thread

Should be an easy Biden vote from me.

Republican senators / politicians lost any ounce of sympathy I had for them in the past 4 years with the clown show they've made on trying to prosecute Hunter Biden for ....nothing, canceling student loan debt forgiveness, banning books from multiple states, outlawing abortion in multiple states, creating bounty laws to arrest women who have received an abortion, attempting to restrict voters rights in multiple states with bullshit lawsuits, and a laundry list of other issues (like striking down multiple laws to fix inflation and the like). And they aren't slowing down! They are relentless and will continue down this path to pass more bullshit like outlawing contraception, a nationwide ban on abortion, and other extreme draconian measures in their pursuit of power.

I don't think Biden's stance on Israel vs Palestine conflict is necessarily the best, but to be frank, I care much more about domestic policies than foreign ones. And while Biden's stance on the conflict isn't the best, can anyone really say the alternative path that Republicans are proposing on this issue is better? Just two weeks ago, Republican senators criticized Biden for halting weapons to Israel. I seriously doubt that Republican politicians will govern with Palestine's best interest in mind.

As for Trump himself, the man's latest trials and lawsuits have painted him in a terrible light and the dude is becoming increasingly incomprehensible every time I see him talk, with a lot of strange gaffs on top of some very dangerous talking points that get him into a lot of trouble. Not helping matters is that a lot of his top VP candidates are election deniers or very strange people. I believe Christi Noems recently bragged that she'd put down Joe Biden's Dog, Cricket, if she came to the White House. Puts a pretty bad picture on the rest of the party.

Before 2020, I was mostly politically uninformed and didn't have much of a grasp on what was going on. Paying a bit more attention and seeing the kinds of draconian measures these Republican politicians want to pass has nonetheless opened my eyes to a lot and has made the choice a lot more obvious (if the January 6 insurrection didn't do that already).
 
We can explain away the data until we are blue in the face but it does not change the economic data. The U.S. is not in a recession, nor is it at a worse point than four years ago. “Vibesession” is the same as saying I feel like the planet is not warming because it snowed outside my house today.

This also tacts with Trump amnesia. Voters seem to think we were better off four years ago, despite the fact that we couldn’t fucking go outside, businesses were closed, unemployment was high, and thousands of Americans were dying from covid. But you know… vibes.
Because for most Americans financial well-being is how they interpret the concept of being "better off" in which case, they're right. They had more money and spending power 4 years ago than they do now. You seem fine ignoring the average voters opinion because it doesn't match the DATA yet when the DATA backs up something you dislike you become a CNN anchor. The stimulus checks and unemployment benefits did a lot for people. Just because they couldn't eat inside a restaurant doesn't mean they weren't doing better financially.
 
Because for most Americans financial well-being is how they interpret the concept of being "better off" in which case, they're right. They had more money and spending power 4 years ago than they do now. You seem fine ignoring the average voters opinion because it doesn't match the DATA yet when the DATA backs up something you dislike you become a CNN anchor. The stimulus checks and unemployment benefits did a lot for people. Just because they couldn't eat inside a restaurant doesn't mean they weren't doing better financially.
Not ignoring the opinion I said the opinion is wrong. Opinions can be objectively be wrong. 70 degrees F can be warm to a voter in Minnesota yet cold to a voter in Florida. The modern news landscape has been failing the population because they will run a story on why it doesn’t actually feel like 70 degrees instead of just reporting what the damn temperature it is. And right now it is a coin flip if US democracy survives this.
 
It doesn't mean they're not living paycheck to paycheck. I imagine you are like me and make more than the average American, so it doesn't feel as real to us, but it's not something to just wave away and has nothing to do with the sitting president.
“Paycheck to paycheck” is a difficult to use measure, because it is self reported and it is hard to disentangle from poor financial management. The amount of people living “paycheck to paycheck” increased the most among high earners, dramatically, while holding stead for other income groups. This seems to support the case that there has been robust growth in real wages among the lowest income workers, otherwise their paycheck to paycheck number would also increase in comparison to before the pandemic. Most of the (new) handwringing would be appear to be coming from high level earners making over 100k, not the poorest americans.
 

Chou Toshio

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“Paycheck to paycheck” is a difficult to use measure, because it is self reported and it is hard to disentangle from poor financial management. The amount of people living “paycheck to paycheck” increased the most among high earners, dramatically, while holding stead for other income groups. This seems to support the case that there has been robust growth in real wages among the lowest income workers, otherwise their paycheck to paycheck number would also increase in comparison to before the pandemic. Most of the (new) handwringing would be appear to be coming from high level earners making over 100k, not the poorest americans.
Me. lol

But honestly it’s natural that in our system a large portion of the 100k+ income bracket will be people who have that income just because of where they work near power. Power needs workers working at their doorstep which only escalates in cost the steeper the economy hierarchy, let alone adjusting for regional cost variations.

If you define the entire top bracket at 100k+ income in an analysis it’s pretty egregious imo. 100k isn’t even the top 10% including/averaging against the whole country.

IMO the takeaway is not that the economy is great for the poorest— it’s that we need to look at ability for wealth creation, and do major public policy for addressing the most problematic pieces— housing, health, and education.

My wage (or at least average household income) tells me that I’m well in the top 10%. My after-expense savings, and looking ahead at kids’ potential future college tuition tells me that shit is seriously busted, and if there’s a time for the professional managerial class to learn class consciousness, it’s now.
 
In todays US news:

-Trump launched an unhinged rant about Memorial Day on truth social.

-Jury deliberations on the NY trial are set to begin this week. 34 felony charges. It’s possible in a week or two the US will have a convicted criminal running for President.

-Trump promised donors he will “crush” pro-Palestinian protesters if elected.

-I did some diving into the crosstabs of A+ rated NY Times / Siena poll that has Trump leading all the battleground states. The key detail to watch is that the headline takes from their polls that include 18% of respondents that did not vote in 2020. That number was even higher, 27% and 35% for black and Hispanic respondents respectively. In the next row of cross tabs, the polls when done with 2020 voters paints a different picture, with Biden winning handily in most of the battleground states. Curious. Is the media trying to craft a narrative here…?
 
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Aqua Jet

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I haven’t been payin much attention to the Trump Trails but I am curious - if he’s found guilty or “loses” the trail in New York (I think this is the hush money one?), can he go to prison?
Also what happened to the other trials in New York and Georgia?
 
Trump can go to prison if convicted. However, it seems unlikely given these are non-violent white collar crimes with relatively short sentences. And he is a former President with special security considerations.
 

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