NOC What A Bastard (GAME OVER)

[Former]

The reason I know who all the mafia are... is because there is no mafia in this game. Just DLE the Serial Killer.

Now let me explain my reasoning behind this theory because frankly, once I started looking into the possibility of just an SK and no mafia, a whole lot of things started to make sense.

First, it really came to Acid's role and how weird it was.

Dear Acidpheonix,

You are the Tentacled Psychiatrist!

Each night, you may pm me CURE [PLAYER]
If your target is a Serial Killer, they will become a Vanilla Townie

When inspected by the Conspiracy Theorist, you will be found guilty

You are sided with the Town, and win when all threats to your faction have been eliminated

Now I mean, it's not like people in this game don't have fake parts. After all, both the Doc of All trades and Texas have parts of their roles which don't apply. However it seems very off kilter for vigvig to make a role that has no use at all. For awhile I assumed this was some wacky anti recruit tool and that Vig was calling the Cult SK's. However with Blazades revelation and death, that's impossible. Similarly, based on the deaths it seems like we don't have both an SK and a mafia as we only have 1 normal kill a night.

The cult revelations also really helped, and exposed more weirdness with the mafia theory. I mean, look at all the roles so far

XX: OS Janitor Vig
Texas: COAT
Fenrir Aesir: Odd-Night Ascetic
Champ: Roleblocker
Former: Roleblocker
Viper: Odd-Night Commuter
Toni: Rolestopper
Hawkie: Rolestopper
DBW: Doc of All Trades

Look how many of those play towards the cult. As in, more than half the roles in play go towards the cult.

Speaking of which, Blazades reveal of recruitment had another strange facet. He doesn't exclude the possibility of scum being recruited. Now maybe that was removed for redundancy, and we can't ask now. But with a condition for recruitment as hard as that. It doesn't seem like adding the logistical challenge of mafia recruitment is likely.

Not to mention, as blazade pointed out. Info roles are strange in this game, only having a COAT instead of a cop or something, which would be strange if we are dealing with a mafia.
In addition, almost all actions have been accounted for. Another strange detail if there was a mafia with roles.

So tl;dr why we have an SK and no mafia

• Unlikely Acid's role is useless (and there's no chance for SK + Mafia)
  
• The majority of the games set up is towards the cult, not the mafia
• The cults recruitment is challenging enough and doesn't seem to preclude mafia
• We know red herrings exist in the ___ of all trade roles
• Little role crossing over for strange actions, which may be the case
• Texas is still alive, indicating that he poses little threat to the scum
• There's no actual proof anywhere that we are dealing with a mafia besides our own assumptions

Admitting, this post is a bit messy because I'm writing it fast. But while I am not quite sure DLE is this SK. I feel 100% sure we are dealing with a solo SK and not a mafia.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

This is completely believable

 

[Former]

Why I think DLE is the SK.

First off, looking again at the roles a majority of them seem oriented towards the cult. And frankly, on that basis alone I think we can rule out a lot of people as being the SK because their roles tie way too strongly to the Cult (ie Fenrir, who is basically pro recruitment from their role).

Now, going back to Acid's role. With the logical assumption that it has a value to it. It actually brings me back to one of the first posts in the game related to him

Hey guys, I'm merlin, so I know some of the mafia.

vote acidphoenix

Sorry man I didn't approve this game

Now, this was a strange thing all around, everyone can agree to that. Made even stranger by the fact Acid seems to be the only anti SK role. However, let me pitch this idea: DLE as SK was informed he couldn't kill Acid for some reason and then used this ploy, as a way to find out Acid's role and try to get them lynched. If you read through D1 and D2 until Acid was lynched, that mindset actually perfectly explains a lot of DLE's actions and focus on Acid's lynch.

Hell, he even makes a joke about being the SK here

[quote="Da Letter El, post: 7558648, member: 19086"
that's pretty much the only thing i've done this game. it seems like people are scumreading me because i'm capable of doing more, but I honestly don't idle this badly as scum because I feel shitty and directly accountable to my teammates when i do. In my idle!scum games I continue to still throw in content here and there; I've done basically nothing this d2.

You can call it wifom and behavior I could easily replicate as scum but I legitimately would feel too guilty to do it and never have/never will.[/quote]

Get it? He's a solo scum so he's fine idling because he's not letting down any teammates.

Speaking of which, the whole thing about him not claiming becomes super strange. Even from Page 1 or 2 he was against claiming, but maintaining that position still is super strange unless he's trying to avoid attention or something weird role wise.


Q/A
Q: Didn't you roleblock DLE last night?
A: No I didn't. I came to this conclusion after day ended and in more than one game I've played, an SK will autokill any roleblockers who target them. This combined with the fact Champ is still alive made me skeptical to do it and instead of taking the 50/50 chance, I took the 1 in whatever chance he wouldn't target me so that I could share this theory today.

So with all this Lynch DLE

 

[Former]

Ew fail quote. But anyways
tl;dr of why DLE = SK

• The weird play with Acid starting D1
• His idling throughout the game
• Refusal to claim role

Also not going to lie, I considered Aubisio a strong candidate for SK as well. But their death seems to resolve that.

 

[vooper]

Now that fh has made that great post (props to you) I wanna hear some more from dle badly before i do anything

 

[VigilanteVigoroth]

oh yeah, forgot to mention the 4 post thing is still in place, provided day doesnt end early

 

[Da Letter El]

Ok I tried to bait a kill onto me off a role read and it didn't work

My role is straight ass. I'm a compulsive tourist. Every night I need to visit someone. N1 acid, n2 blazade, n3 Texas, n4 texas. I wasn't hooked last night.

I suspect my role isn't just visiting people, which is why I early into the game mentioned "I targeted acid" to see if I was a roleblocker or something, but since he didn't say anything about that, I assumed not. I then targeted blazade and Texas as hoping I was some sort of protective role.

 

[Da Letter El]

Former you don't fucking claim ever when claiming doesn't benefit town. Please explain how this claim of tourist would have assisted town in any way yesterday besides raise the lkikeliohood a good role dies

Answer it doesn't

 

[Da Letter El]

Question for the peanut gallery: why does aubisio die there?

 

[Former]

Killing the last of the vanilla towns... for some reason.

Also what does tourist do

 

[Former]

Question for the peanut gallery: why does aubisio die there?

Side note, having a lot of suspicion put on you than instantly deflecting to someone else or another issue is a typical scum play

 

[Da Letter El]

Side note, having a lot of suspicion put on you than instantly deflecting to someone else or another issue is a typical scum play

 

[Da Letter El]

On a more serious note, I'm fairly sure you've seen my scum game. This isn't my scum game. Speaking in generalities about "scum do x" isn't nearly as useful as "dle as scum does y."

So former hope, please explain why as 3p/maf/whatever scum in a bastard game I intentionally draw negative attention to myself from one of the two active players, then proceeds not to kill them. Meanwhile, explain the world in which I believe it to be a great idea to kill aubisio of all people over a cop of all trades -- who Since he can cop over 3p AND is active is still always a better kill than a sheep of a vt claim.

If your answer to either of the above two questions is "wifom, you could do this as 3p" you need to re-evaluate because not playing optimally for the sake of a "gotcha" on the "if I did it" train is not my style.

 

[Da Letter El]

Oh I hadn't listened to Tunnels in a minute, I forgot exactly how great this song is. Something good about the whole affair

 

[Da Letter El]

ItzViper482 explain your role and targets again? I probably missed it

Fenrir Aesir as well

 

[vooper]

Odd night commuter, i cant target anyone.

On odd nights i cant be targeted by anything

 

[XnadrojX]

I don't know DLE's meta so I can't really go off their arguments there, but I think FH has really good points. Could be him as mafia trying to throw out the idea that mafia doesn't exist, but it looks way more likely now that they are town and is right here.

DALE you claiming yesterday saves us lots of confusion, and while it seems like claiming has no benefit, not claiming has no downside either and maybe some town role could make use of the info.

Also given the sheer number of blocking roles can we get all the blockers to claim targets since I doubt Blazade is last cultist.

 

[XnadrojX]

DLE* EBWOP to the above

 

[Da Letter El]

I don't know DLE's meta so I can't really go off their arguments there, but I think FH has really good points. Could be him as mafia trying to throw out the idea that mafia doesn't exist, but it looks way more likely now that they are town and is right here.

DALE you claiming yesterday saves us lots of confusion, and while it seems like claiming has no benefit, not claiming has no downside either and maybe some town role could make use of the info.

Also given the sheer number of blocking roles can we get all the blockers to claim targets since I doubt Blazade is last cultist.

But I'm literally never the lynch target; I'm inspected as not Mafia and have no reason to be voted over an attempted mafia vote or a known cultist vote.

The only thing claiming does is give killing roles more knowledge on a better informed target. Claiming is anti town

 

[Former]

The only real conclusion between the aubisio and flyhn kill is that the sk is targeting vanilla towns, maybe because they get a power up or something when they are gone. Who knows. But beyond that, it doesn't make sense for anyone to target vts over other roles for any public reason so I think the kills at this point are NAI

 

[Former]

Texas Cloverleaf I forget, can you only use each check once?

Also what are your current reads/thoughts on my 2nd theory post

 

[XnadrojX]

I think the SK is trying to eliminate the potential cultists, since that's one less enemy faction to have to deal with.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Texas Cloverleaf I forget, can you only use each check once?

Also what are your current reads/thoughts on my 2nd theory post

ya

like i said, very believable

 

[Champ1604]

Sorry, I had a heavy day yesterday. I mean it, real heavy.

I RB'd XnadrojX. But oh well looks like they are already not SK.

I will buy FH's theory. Though I didn't get this one point - Wouldn't COAT be used over Cop (assuming it's mafia not SK) since we also have cult in this game?

I can't just just digest the fact that dLE wasn't able to kill acid. Why would the SK not be able to kill Psychiatrist? If anything else, that's something that should be allowed - since that's what the SK achieves to do.

But also you suggest that he would idle, but there has always been one kill every night. This would be contradictory?

But again, yes, dLE's reason to lynch acid did seem to lack reasoning. I however can't buy that dLE will lynch acid because of him not being able to kill them. I mean, there would have been a failed kill if they attempted to kill acid, which could have been the only way for them to know that they can't kill acid? They wouldn't get in their role PM that they can't kill acid, or at least I have never seen anything like that ever happen before.

And on a side note, do rb'ers die if they roleblock Serial Killer?

 

[Champ1604]

For tl;dr, simply read the second last point. Not a long p though.

And just noticed their Compulsive Tourist claim. This would be the fuel to the fire but their reason not to claim seems sorta.. believable. However,

If your answer to either of the above two questions is "wifom, you could do this as 3p" you need to re-evaluate because not playing optimally for the sake of a "gotcha" on the "if I did it" train is not my style.

This pings a slightly. It is like a simple play where you are letting off the reason because it is not in your playermeta. Isn't that something anyone can use as an excuse?

And on a side note, we have come so far deducing everything but here's the thing: what is bastard in this game? Are the odd-night commuters considered bastard or something?