Beyond Alola - what's next for Pokémon?
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Introduction
Art by h_n_g_m_n.
By now, Pokémon Trainers from all over the world have long since settled in Alola, and possibly grown a little restless. The leis we got after stepping off the boat have shriveled up, there is sand in every corner of our suitcases, and we have had enough malasadas to last us a lifetime. Pokémon players are already pining for new adventures and looking for the next game on the horizon. But what will it be like? This article takes a look at the history of Pokémon main series game releases and tries to see what happened the last few times we found ourselves in these situations. What can we expect from Game Freak in the immediate future?
There are indications that Pokémon Sun and Moon are nearing the end of their shelf life. Most of the Event Pokémon found buried in the games' code have already been released, and all Event Pokémon but the alternate-colored Magearna (and the legacy Floette-E) have been revealed officially. Revealing all the Pokémon in the generation—as in, every Pokémon with a unique Pokédex number, thus discounting formes—within five months of the base games' release is unprecedented in modern Pokémon history. Sun and Moon were released on November 18, 2016, while Gen VII's last Pokémon, Marshadow, was officially revealed on April 7, 2017—only 20 weeks later. For comparison, Pokémon X and Y were released on October 12, 2013, but it took until December 15, 2015 for the existence of Volcanion to be revealed—113 weeks later. Clearly, the life cycle of Sun and Moon is nearing its end, and more adventures are on the way.
Addressing the rumors
Rumors are swirling, of course, as rumors are wont to do. Time has taught me not to trust them. For instance, while researching for this article, I came across several people claiming that the next games were announced by Masuda already—upon inspecting the sources, it always turned out that some editor or YouTuber had jumped to conclusions based on ambiguous statements.
However, at least it seems reasonable—if not inevitable—that a new main series Pokémon game in some form is on its way, regardless of what the rumors say. The Pokémon franchise is one of the biggest cash cows in media history, with a large and active fan base all over the world, and merchandising sales in the billions every year. Stopping now would be tantamount to corporate suicide, not to mention very unpopular with the fans (still, some dunderheads always tend to propagate rumors claiming "these games will be the last Pokémon games ever!", personally I've heard it said about every game since Ruby and Sapphire). Rest assured that there will come new Pokémon games with regularity for a long, long time to come—look at the Sonic the Hedgehog franchise for evidence that not even a sharply declining reputation over several years can kill a game franchise that was once popular, and Pokémon is more popular than Sonic ever was.
So, to sum up thus far, Sun and Moon are nearing the end of their line, and Game Freak is making games to succeed them. Most serious fans tend to agree on those facts. But interestingly, expectations are divided as to what kind of game we will see next. Here, we try to list the arguments for and against the most likely types of games to follow up Sun and Moon:
Diamond and Pearl remakes
This is perhaps the most commonly held belief at this time, if only for its memetic status. Following in the footsteps of FireRed and LeafGreen, HeartGold and SoulSilver, and Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire, these games would recreate the adventure in Sinnoh, released in 2006 and 2007. It would be a return to the peak of Mt. Coronet, the library in Canalave City, the haunted mansion in Eterna Forest, and the fight against Team Galactic's mad leader Cyrus in his quest for world domination. Game Freak has developed a habit of remakes now, and sales numbers indicate they are popular among fans. Will NounDiamond and AnotherNounPearl be the next games to thrill Pokémon fans?
The arguments in favor:
- Generations I, II, and III have had their remakes, in that order. The Gen IV games would be next in line.
- The fan base has been "warmed up" to the idea of a Diamond and Pearl remake for a while now. "Sinnoh confirmed" became a meme even before Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire were announced, and the idea of a remake seems generally accepted by now.
- No Pokémon games since Gold and Silver have sold as many copies as Diamond and Pearl. This indicates a huge potential base of nostalgic customers to sell the remakes to.
- Transferring Pokémon from the Gen IV games to the current games is a tedious task, since they are not compatible with Pokémon Bank. The process requires multiple DSes and one of the Gen V games. With the Virtual Console release of the Gen I games, Sinnoh and Johto remain the only two regions without a direct Pokémon Bank connectability.
- Sun and Moon contain a lot of Sinnoh references, like X and Y referred to Hoenn a lot. For instance:
- At the time of X and Y's release, Torchic was distributed as an event Pokémon. The Torchic line, represented by Blaziken, was among the first Gen III Pokémon to ever be revealed. The event Torchic in X and Y held an otherwise-unobtainable Blazikenite, to showcase Gen VI's new mechanic, Mega Evolution. When Sun and Moon were released, Munchlax was distributed. Munchlax was one of the first Gen IV Pokémon to be officially revealed, and the event Munchlax in Sun and Moon held an otherwise-unobtainable Snorlium Z, which showcases Gen VII's new mechanic, Z-Moves.
- Silvally's design invokes quite a few references to Arceus, a prominent Gen IV Legendary Pokémon. This goes down all the way to the name of its ability (RKS System = Arceus System—although the pronounciation of "Arceus" is somewhat contested among fans).
- Professor Burnet's laboratory contains research on several Pokémon known for crossing dimensional or temporal barriers. They are all native to Sinnoh. Crossing dimensions was an important theme in Sun and Moon, with the Ultra Beasts and whatnot, and it was also invoked a lot in Diamond and Pearl.
- The Alola Pokédex contains very few Sinnoh-native Pokémon. Among them are only seven evolutionary families that are not related to other generations.
- FireRed and LeafGreen were released eight years after Red and Green. Between the Gen II games and their remakes, there were 10 years. There were 12 years between the Gen III games and their Gen VI counterparts. The 10 and a half years that have already passed since Diamond and Pearl saw light in Japan fit snugly within this pattern, but if remakes were delayed for another generation, the "remake wait" would easily be 13 years or more.
The arguments against:
- Any copy of Diamond and Pearl can be plopped right into even the latest version of the 3DS and played as if the console was designed for them. Which it actually is; after all, the games are only one console generation old. Why would they need a remake?
- The Diamond and Pearl versions are counted among the weaker Pokémon games among long-time fans, who make up a significant chunk of the customer base. It might be safer or more profitable to appeal to them with a different Pokémon game.
- Remakes have historically happened when the games in question are two console generations old. Gen I (GameBoy) were remade for the GBA, Gen II (GameBoy Color) were remade for the DS, and Gen III (GBA) were remade for the 3DS. DS games might not be remade until the next handheld console generation. Like Gen V was the second generation on the DS and had no remakes, Gen VII is the second generation on the 3DS and may therefore have no remakes.
- All Pokémon games tend to contain references to previous games, without any implications that remakes are on the way. For instance, Professor Burnet herself is a pretty big reference to Black and White, and it is pretty clear that those games aren't due for a remake any time soon.
Red and Green/Red and Blue remakes
These were the games that launched the franchise, and are best-selling in the series by far, but they already were remade once. However, that was in 2004, and the feeling of nostalgia is strong in the fan base. Younger fans may even be nostalgic for FireRed and LeafGreen, and the nostalgia for the contemporary Ruby and Sapphire games was enough to give those a remake. Will the Kanto adventure be polished up for the three-dimensional era?
The arguments in favor:
- The original Indigo League adventure is the only one not playable on a game in the DS/3DS family. You can visit Kanto in HeartGold and SoulSilver, but not play through the original quest from Pallet Town to the Indigo League, unless you count the re-released Gen I games.
- The roaring success of Pokémon Go showed us how the world is nostalgic for Generation I. Remaking the games once again would surf on the wave of popularity and publicity.
- It has actually been a lot longer since FireRed and LeafGreen than since Diamond and Pearl. That might mean that the Generation I games are next in line for remakes, rather than the Generation IV games.
- FireRed and LeafGreen were made for the GBA—two console generations ago. Going by the established pattern, GBA games should be remade for the 3DS.
- Nintendo's latest hardware compatible with GBA games was the DS Lite, which was released in 2006. Although it was discontinued as late as April 2016, it still means you can't buy more consoles to play the remade Gen I games on.
- At the end of Sun and Moon, Lillie is explicitly mentioned to be traveling to Kanto. Is that a hint of our most recent adventure continuing there?
- In the Battle Tree, aged versions of Red and Blue appear to challenge players.
- The recently announced Pokémon movie (Pokémon the Movie 20: I Choose You!) features a series throwback with Ash's adventure in Kanto—although slightly re-imagined.
The arguments against
- Game Freak has been throwing fans of Generation I several bones in recent games. In other words, we might have had enough Gen I to satisfy the demand already. One might even claim that the potential is used up, and that there is little Kanto content left that hasn't been refurbished even before eventual future Kanto games:
- X and Y featured the Gen I starters early in the game, and their Mega Evolutions later, and Santalune Forest is a perfect copy of Viridian Forest. Those games also feature a Snorlax roadblock and a scripted Pidgey encounter in the first patch of grass you step into.
- Gen VII saw several new forms of Gen I Pokémon (only Gen I Pokémon).
- All of the Pokémon receiving species-specific Z-Moves were Gen I Pokémon, except for the Gen VII starters and the Island Guardians.
- All the Generation I games were released for the 3DS Virtual Console fairly recently and made compatible with Pokémon Bank.
- These games have had their remakes already. Remaking the Gen I games again may set a precedent for an endless cycle of remakes and re-remakes.
- Looks- and layout-wise, Kanto's design is very simplistic, if not outright bland. Updating the region to current graphical standards will require a lot of re-imagining when it comes to architecture and environment design. As a region, it lacks biomes such as icy mountains/deserts/volcanoes that we've come to expect in a Pokémon game, so these would have to be added (or weighed up for, à la Sevii Islands) somehow. Even the iconic ruler-straight and right-angled shorelines are a relic of the past. An updated Kanto would not be the Kanto we remember.
Sun and Moon follow-up
Perhaps we aren't done with Alola just yet? A staple of the Pokémon series is the updated re-release of a region, giving us a second adventure with more Pokémon, new forms, and more content. The tradition was broken in Gen VI with Kalos (however, there are indications that a follow-up game was planned), but it could be taken up again easily, since it would mostly consist of re-used assets made for Sun and Moon, and "third version" games tend to sell rather well. Whether a sequel or just a refurbished condensate of Sun and Moon, this alternative would take us back to Alola for more adventures.
The arguments in favor:
- Follow-up games are a lot cheaper to produce than base games, since all the expensive stuff—overworld/battle graphics engines, animation packages, location designs, textures, and the tools by which they all are made, among other things—have been created and completed for the development of the base games. Re-using all these already-made assets to piece together a third game that will sell comparably to the base games for a fraction of the development cost is a very lucrative move.
- Certain elements in Sun and Moon, such as the mysterious Necrozma (which stats-wise practically screams for an alternate forme like Kyurem and Zygarde did before it) or the Elite Four member Kahili, only had small appearances but hints of a bigger story.
- Although not present in Gen VI, follow-up games are still a Pokémon tradition.
- Gen V, which was the last generation to be released for the same console as its preceding generation, also featured a pair of base games followed by a pair of follow-up games.
- The Pokémon Anime is currently focusing on Ash's adventures in Alola, and as of writing this he has only cleared one of the seven trials, nearly six months after the Sun & Moon series began in Japan. It seems like the Anime plans on staying in Alola for a while.
- A new line of merchandise features the tagline "Look upon the stars!", possibly hinting towards more games focused on celestial bodies and constellations.
The arguments against:
- X and Y got no follow-up, neither did Black and White in the traditional sense. May the tradition be a thing of the past?
- Sun and Moon took players through every nook and cranny of Alola's four islands. There would be no room for the usual new areas that feature in a follow-up game, unless the geography of the region was changed significantly.
Something else entirely
Historically, main series Pokémon games have fallen into a quite small number of categories: either base games, remakes, or follow-up games. The pattern has always been the same: one pair of games establish the generation, new Pokémon, and a new region; the next game(s) re-use either the same region or a previous one, and build another adventure using existing Pokémon and moves, but possibly introducing more Pokémon forms. However, this convention is not unbreakable. Could it be that an entirely new region can be created, while still being a part of Gen VII? Or perhaps a new adventure in an existing region that is not Alola, but without directly remaking the game the region was made for? There is an argument to be made that this would be a handy excuse to carry out the makeover Kanto needs to be modern, without messing too much with the legacy of Gen I.
Or will we see a new generation again, already? After all, the release of all event legendaries in Sun and Moon mean that every Pokémon added to the Pokédex this generation have been revealed and released within the life span of the base games, which hasn't happened since the Game Boy times (back when Event Pokémon could only be obtained by showing up to an event and plugging a cable into your Game Boy. Mew was distributed at five events before the release of Yellow in Japan. Celebi had two distributions before the release of Crystal). If they intend to carry Gen VII any further, why would Game Freak empty its load of Gen VII Event Pokémon so soon?
It has happened before that we expected Game Freak to act predictably and announce a game we were all expecting, only to throw us something completely different instead. In addition to the recent and seemingly inevitable Pokémon Z, two generations ago we were all expecting a Pokémon Gray version to follow up Black and White. Neither happened, we got a new generation of Pokémon introduced instead of Z, and Black and White were followed by an unprecedented pair of sequels rather than a singular follow-up game. May Game Freak be throwing aside all the conventions and giving us an entirely new batch of Pokémon already after one pair of games?
Alas, since this option can be boiled down to "Game Freak does something they have never done before", there is little historical or empirical data to back up any speculation either way. Frustrating as it may be, we're going to have to leave the questions open in this section.
Platforms
Even though the Nintendo Switch has recently been released to great reviews, it is overwhelmingly likely that the next main series games will remain on the 3DS, no matter which of the options above we will end up with. The Switch has sold well, but the potential customer base for a Pokémon game is still too small compared to that of the 3DS. Besides, Gen VII had all its code written for the 3DS. It would be strange—and economically unviable—for Game Freak to write an entire new game engine and create animation for the 3DS, only to use it for only one pair of games. Porting it to the Switch does not seem likely either; a game created within the constraints of the 3DS would look rather underwhelming if brought to the big screen of the Switch. Besides, once again drawing parallels to Gen V, Black 2 and White 2 were released long after the 3DS hit the shelves but were still made for the regular DS.
One could make compelling arguments in favor of a Pokémon game on mobile phones (as mentioned, Pokémon Go definitely demonstrated that there is a market), but even modern phones lack the graphical power required to render a full-fledged Pokémon game as we've come to expect of them in recent times. Besides, it sounds unlike Nintendo to take a flagship title away from their line of consoles, Super Mario Run nonwithstanding, especially when that title is so instrumental to their hardware sales.
That being said, The Pokémon Company has experimented with Pokémon adventures on home consoles (which is what they claim the Switch to be, despite its portability) before. Pokémon Colosseum and Pokémon XD were (almost) full-fledged Pokémon games for the GameCube, with perfect compatibility with the GBA games. There was also Pokémon Battle Revolution, which flopped badly, partly because it completely lacked a story mode. The failure of Battle Revolution might be part of the reason why the concept has not been revisited since. These games were not developed by Game Freak, however, and are not considered part of the main series of Pokémon games. But the popularity and legacy of Colosseum and XD, plus the aforementioned portability of the Switch (stated to be a major requirement of design for full-fledged Pokémon games), might make TPC want to give the concept a try again? Pokémon is a "hardware pusher" franchise, and a Pokémon game released for the console would definitely give it a large sales boost. But before such a trick can be pulled, the number of console adopters needs to reach a critical point.
Conclusion
There you have the arguments, back and forth. Contrary to the title of this section, I will refrain from making any conclusions or specific guesses as to what comes next. There are plausible arguments to be made both for and against all the examined options, and Game Freak has had a habit of doing something unpredictable when we think we have got them figured out. But whatever the outcome will be, I think it is safe to say that the next game will take place in a region with an O in its English name.
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