SPL XVI Pre-Tournament Series: Top 10 SPL Upsets

« Previous Article

Next Article »

Introduction

What is an upset? In sports, you'd probably say it's when an underdog team beats the odds and takes down the favorites. We're going for something similar in this article, looking at individual matchups across the last fifteen editions of SPL. Here you'll find the most improbable, most unlikely and craziest upsets in SPL history, digging all the way back to the early days of SPL and leaving no stone unturned.

A list like this is, of course, subjective. The main considerations going into our rankings were 1) the records of the players going into the game, 2) where the players were perceived in their careers, and 3) the stakes behind the game. While upsets can happen any time in SPL, and they do happen pretty often, it's rare to see them in the most decisive moments, with nine of our entries coming from the playoffs. Few of the victories on this list were thought possible, but we hope to show through these games that even when all the odds are stacked, Pokémon can give you any result. We hope to see some more underdog wins in SPL XVI!

---

10

Hyogafodex vs Conflict - GSC OU - SPL XII

The first game to appear on our list is also our only regular season inclusion. Conflict is someone who needs no introduction, having been a top player since his debut all the way back in 2010, with stellar records across multiple generations. While it's arguable that the German wasn't at his peak during this era, he was still seen as a member of GSC's Mt. Rushmore (something he reiterated later in the tournament, going 2-0 in playoffs). Hyogafodex, on the other hand, was coming into the game with an 0-5 record in SPL XII (part of a 3-16 overall SPL record). This matchup was seen as one of the most one-sided of all time, pitting Conflict's 50 wins in the tournament against Hyoga's 3, with the Tyrants being on the verge of a playoff berth and the Ruiners having lost seven weeks straight to start the season.

Conflict started the game with an early advantage, a Rapid Spin Forretress keeping Spikes from his side of the field and a knockout against Hyogafodex's Gengar with his own. The Brazilian wouldn't call it quits early, though, as he pulled off a well-timed Explosion on Conflict's Raikou with his Cloyster, removing the German's only Electric resist. The match turned on its head on turn 38 when Hyogafodex revealed a hidden ... Pikachu ... which somehow appeared primed to tilt the game in his favor. After a few Curse rolls from a sleeping Snorlax, Pikachu accomplished its job, crippling the GSC staple before fainting to an incoming Zapdos. A few unlucky Sleep Talk rolls and Hyogafodex's Snorlax essentially wins the game—truly a battle that could not be predicted.

In the time since this battle, Conflict has gone on to continue his GSC dominance, with 19 wins and 7 losses during the next 3 SPLs. Hyogafodex, on the other hand followed this 1-5 SPL up with another 1-5 in SPL XIV, but with Pikachu's blessing, he was able to take down a Goliath of the tier.

9

MANNAT vs xray - ORAS OU - SPL XIII

When getting ready to play one of the biggest games of your career, the SPL thread often does not make things any easier. Heading into this key semifinals match very few people expected MANNAT to do much, with three predicts in his favor to twelve for xray. xray has long been considered one of the absolute best ORAS OU players, and in a high-stakes scenario like a playoff semifinal against MANNAT, it seemed almost logical to expect him to win. The German entered the tournament as the unanimous first rank in the tier, while MANNAT did not even receive a ranking, with the expectation being that he'd be glued to the bench all season.

The battle itself was a slugfest, with xray missing a crucial Will-O-Wisp on MANNAT's Mega Tyranitar, changing the landscape instantly. xray clawed his way back into the match from there, but MANNAT met him play for play, and after a key HP Ice critical hit on xray's Gliscor, the match was essentially sealed. Very few people expected MANNAT to be able to win a match of this importance, but the Midwest flagship was able to drag his team to a tiebreaker, where unfortunately, they dropped out of the tournament.

8

Carl vs The_Chaser - RBY OU - SPL II | No log available

Turning back the clock, in the number eight spot on our list we have a game from SPL II finals. In April 2011 the Stark Sharks and the Alpha Ruiners met in the finals of the second edition of SPL, with The_Chaser representing the third seed Ruiners. The_Chaser was a player in a considerable vein of form, coming off a 6-3 record in SPL I and an incredibly impressive 10-0 in SPL II, both in RBY. Across from him was a player known for his modesty, Carl, a player of considerable repute in midst of a bad string of results. With a 3-6 record coming into the game and the embarrassing black mark of missing his semifinals scheduled time, Carl was largely unfavored against his rampant opponent, giving us one of Smogon's first truly iconic underdog stories.

Now, we do need to put a disclaimer here: RBY players, please skip this paragraph. Back during SPL II, RBY OU was played as a best of one, which made RNG even more impactful than it is today, especially in the era before Body Slam paralysis mechanics were implemented correctly. In any case, the format difference did little to undermine the inequality of this matchup, as very few predicted Carl to win.

Okay RBY players, you can start reading again.

While the log of this battle has been lost to time, from a snippet from Philip7086's shoutouts post gives us a glimpse into what happened during the battle:

How much any player's luck factored into this game is still a mystery, but in the end only one name was bolded.

Carl's victory marked the end of the first 10-0 SPL season, with this record not being surpassed until blarajan in SPL V. The_Chaser continued on as a mainstay RBY player in tournaments and Carl saw out a respectable 11-7 record across the next two SPLs before retiring. Both players, two of the strongest of their day, colluded to give us an iconic, if archaic, example of an upset.

7

xtra$hine vs idiotfrommars - BW OU - SPL III

In 2012, during SPL III, the Ever Grande BIGs made their first, and as of today, their last finals appearance having dominated the regular season and earning the top seed. In the semi-finals, the BIGs narrowly bested Team Raiders after mounting an inspiring comeback, and the team could perhaps spot the sparkle of the gold medal. Their opponent in the finals, however, were no strangers to the podium. The Alpha Ruiners had been runner-ups in both the previous editions, and they did not want to make it a third. The stage was truly set, and the finals opened with a bang.

The opening game of the SPL III finals was also perhaps the most lopsided game on paper. Both players had gone 3-0 in the group stage of the most recent World Cup, but their paths in SPL III had been polar opposites. The BIGs' representative was idiotfrommars, who was 9-1 at the time and with a win here would be the second ever player to reach double-digit wins in a single SPL season. His stellar record was most certainly well earned, as he had taken down several titans on his run, such as Ojama (who would later join him as a teammate on the BIGs), McMeghan, and The Grand Babido. His challenger was xtra$hine, a young competitor who had made it to the semifinals of Smogon Tour 9 a few years prior at the young age of 13. Known for creative offensive teams and techniques, xtra$hine definitely had the tools to cause upsets, but his performance to that point didn't show it. Starting the season 0-2, xtra$hine saw himself benched for multiple weeks, before coming back into action for the later stages, sporting a 2-5 record going into the game. This game would, however, cement xtra$hine as a player that you should never ever doubt. xtra$hine's aggressive and consummate play dovetailed with his outlandish team choices, keeping him in the game against IFM's offense. The turning point in the battle occurred late in the match, when IFM attempted to set up a Lucario on xtra$hine's Ferrothorn, only to find out that the latter was Choice Banded, turning the tide of the match decisively. With a much-needed first blood in a tense finals, The Alpha Ruiners would ride the momentum all the way, and secure the first of their three Smogon Premier League victories, with this upset serving as the spark for their triumph.

6

Luispeikou vs xavgb - SV OU - SPL XV

The Dragonspiral Tyrants entered the playoffs of SPL XV with a chip on their shoulder. Having had OU superstar CTC banned mid-tournament, their lineup underwent several changes as the weeks went on in order to accommodate. One of those eventual changes was the inclusion of Luispeikou, a player who was mentioned solely as a "Spanish substitute" in the pre-tournament rankings, a player who most would assume would crumble against xavgb when the chips were down, with the British star nearly unanimously considered one of the best SV OU players on the site.

The battle was a back-and-forth affair, with Luispeikou's aggressive and calculated plays giving him the momentum into the latter part of the game. xavgb, for his part, held a particularly nasty Tera Water Gholdengo in reserve, which seemed like it might have just enough juice to bring home the victory. Luispeiko, though, didn't panic and chipped away first at the Gholdengo's recovers and then at its remaining HP, with a late-game Darkrai ending the match with 9%, just enough to bring it down. This victory would go on to be absolutely vital for the Tyrants, as they'd have to tiebreak to get into the finals, where they'd win the franchise's first SPL trophy.

5

Tokyo Tom vs Jayde - BW OU - SPL IX

The SPL VIII Raiders waltzed into playoffs having won 8 weeks in a row from the start of the season. Having won a staggering 17 (out of 18 available) points and with a +34 W/L differential, never before had there been such a dominant SPL regular season team. One of the stars of the show was Jayde, the US East mainstay BW player. Coming into the tournament Jayde had a formidable reputation and solid results to boot, having won WCoP the summer before with a 2-1 record. After being ranked fifth in the pre-tournament power rankings, Jayde went on to produce an extremely dominant run, going 9-0 from the start and looking untouchable. With wins against McMeghan, SoulWind and Finchinator, the BW pool was filled with stars, cementing this regular season run as one of the best ever.

Across from Jayde in the semifinal matchup was Tokyo Tom, known for his creative building in BW OU. With SPL VIII being his first tour in the notoriously competitive field, Tokyo Tom found himself ranked 8th in the power rankings, mainly due to his lack of experience. Originally drafted by the WiFi Wolfpack, he was ultimately traded to the Tigers for just 3k. Once there, Tokyo Tom took up the BW slot, freeing up teammate McMeghan to move to ADV and seeing out the season with a serviceable 2-2 in his remaining games, which saw the Tigers narrowly squeak into playoffs. These two routes to the semifinals could not be more contrasted, with Jayde's coming after a dominant season with a dominant team, and Tokyo Tom having been discarded and just barely making playoffs. To the spectators, the outcome of this game seemed decided as soon as the thread went up, an oasis for the Raiders who found themselves in an unfamiliar position, down 0-3 and facing elimination.

The game loaded with a familiar matchup, with Jayde using a sand offense and Tokyo Tom bringing a funky rain team. Both players did their best to set hazards, with Jayde taking the first scalp of the match by taking out Tokyo Tom's Ferrothorn, before the Canadian outsped and took down Jayde's Heatran with his Politoed. The Politoed wasn't done there, going on to barely tank a Latios Draco Meteor before pulling out a Chesto Rest. Things went from bad to worse for Jayde as he lost his Tyranitar to an errant Ice Beam freeze, having to sacrifice his Latios the turn after. Late-game, Jayde had a bit of luck, nabbing a Psychic critical hit on Tokyo Tom's Landorus and getting a confusion self-hit from his Scarf Garchomp, but ultimately the latter proved too difficult to overcome. After this victory the Tigers moved to 4-0 and would eventually win the finals, although the trophy would ultimately be recalled. One of the most improbable wins of all time, and one that might look even better with slightly different circumstances, Tokyo Tom soundly takes fifth spot on this list.

4

Edgar vs Blim - XY Ubers - SPL V

While both players in this matchup were PO alumni and both players were members of the infamous IDM, their respective positions entering this game shared no similarities from there. Blim, largely considered the best player among the group, had established early successes on Smogon, with a respectable 6-3 record in SPL IV and a 7-3 campaign heading into this finals matchup, including a rather lopsided victory over Edgar earlier in the season. Edgar, meanwhile, had few relevant results to speak of and only entered the tournament as a hail mary for the Sharks to fix their Ubers slot. With both teams, Blim's Cryonicles and Edgar's Sharks, being very strong, any upset at all in the series would surely alter the course of the entire tournament.

Edgar's preparation for this match would go down in Smogon legend, with manager MoP hounding his player to create version after version of his team. However, Edgar's hard work would not go unrewarded, with the team's focus on spreading paralysis paying dividends. With three layers of Spikes up, Edgar's Palkia went to work, and a timely crit on Blim's Hippowdon from Edgar's Arceus-Ghost would wind up securing the game, a crucial one in the Shark's eventual 7-5 victory in SPL V finals. While Edgar may have wound up a bit luckier, this victory is pivotal in establishing the Sharks' dominance of early SPL and would set the standard for the franchise in the years coming.

3

hellpowna vs bro fist - BW OU - SPL IV

Heading into the SPL IV finals, the Circus Maximus Tigers were riding a high. Their OU core, led by a surging 7-3 bro fist, was unquestionably the community's pick to dominate in the finals, especially as bro fist had just come from a crucial semifinals tiebreaker victory against CTC. Across from bro fist was hellpowna, a substitute player with only a single game played in the tournament so far, that seemed to be more like a sacrificial lamb than an opponent. With hellpowna bringing a quirky rain team with a Feraligatr, he was met with bro fist utilizing a weather-less Gengar offense.

The game itself did not live up to any exciting expectations. In a match log marred with visitor commentary, hellpowna managed to gets a key early-game Swords Dance off with his Feraligatr. The rest was history, as bro fist's Pokémon melted turn after turn while the gator clicked Aqua Jet in the rain. The shock of this victory was so great that a handful of spectators in the lobby thought it prudent to get hellpowna's IP address checked, confirming that he was who he said he was, and not an alt. Of course, the Italian would eventually go on to become a recognizable Smogon Tournaments player, and his win in this matchup helped secure an SPL trophy, so hellpowna deservedly takes third place in our greatest upsets.

2

BIHI vs Heroic Troller - RBY OU - SPL XIII | Game One / Game Two / Game Three

It simply does not get closer to David vs Goliath than matching someone with one game of RBY on their sheet against Heroic Troller, someone whose record consists almost exclusively of RBY OU. With the highest winrate across the top 200 players on the sheet, Troller has made a career out of farming wins in his favorite generation. It wouldn't have been unfair to consider Troller's victory to be a foregone conclusion for the Stark Sharks, with BIHI seemingly offered up as a sacrifice in the finals tiebreaker in place of the Raiders' failing RBY starter, despite securing a win for the Raiders in RBY weeks before in the semifinals tiebreaker.

The series, played first in the tiebreaker, was a brutal back-and-forth affair. The Frenchman won a tense game one, a 140-turn test of patience that saw the competitors nearly evenly matched and consisted in no small part of two Reflect Snorlaxes staring at each other. Afterwards, BIHI found himself on the other end of timely plays in game two, which secured his loss as Troller maneuvered his Gengar in precise fashion. In the crucial third match, BIHI took his opportunity to aggressively attack with his Tauros and never looked back, keeping the pressure up against Troller with momentum-sustaining switches, using Gengar and Starmie to great effect. Several key critical hits and paralyses helped carve up Troller's team as the Italian desperately hoped for a Zapdos-led comeback, which wasn't to be found; in the most important match of his season, BIHI had claimed the biggest scalp of his career on his opponent's home turf.

1

robjr vs McMeghan - ADV OU - SPL XIV

Every now and then, the Washington Generals manage to squeak out a win. Heading into the SPL XIV finals not a single (unbanned) user predicted robjr to win this match, a fact that really wasn't all that unfair. McMeghan headed into this finals matchup as one of the best ADV players in the site's history, sporting an incredible 8-1 record on his way there with wins over great players like Golden Sun, Sadlysius, Triangles and Dice. robjr, on the other hand, was struggling to keep his head above water with a 4-4 record split between SV OU and ADV OU. Outside of this tournament, too, the disparity could not be more clear—with McMeghan boasting a nearly 60% win rate while robjr had only 45%.

The game these two men played was a firecracker. McMeghan's early aggression was betrayed by robjr's commitment to spreading status, with a key burn neutering the Belgian's Tyranitar and two Toxics whittling down his team's spine. A late-game Snorlax from McMeghan's side seemed to have potential to turn the match back into his favor, but robjr's Roar Tyranitar kept it at bay. The Northeast player didn't have the chance to calm down, though, as in the dying turns of the match McMeghan unleashed a trust Metagross, which then went on to Agility while dodging a Fire Blast. A single Meteor Mash boost would likely seal the deal for McMeghan, but robjr's Swampert and Salamence both managed to dodge it, letting him bring home the absolutely vital victory with his last few mons. This win would prove to be key, as the series would be tied 6-6 and go into a tiebreaker, where unfortunately robjr's team would lose, the only black mark on a stunning victory like this.

« Previous Article

Next Article »

All guides and strategy information are © 2004 Smogon.com and its contributors. Pokémon is © 1995 Nintendo. Privacy Policy