SPL XVII Pre-Tournament Series: Rookie Prospect Report

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Introduction

SPL is here, and everyone is chomping at the bit to watch the highest level of OU gameplay as ten teams battle it out again for a chance at the red trophy. Every year, all eyes are on the auction, where each team tries to score their favorite players for cheap while upbidding the players the other teams want. Very commonly, teams rely on rookie players, those with three or fewer prior SPL games, to round out their lineup: players like vk (6-4) and LpZ (6-5) who will go for 3k and deliver.

Winningest manager Dave had this to say last year: “As a former manager, it was extremely fulfilling to hit on a cheap or first-time player. First-time participants in SPL have not historically done well, as it takes time to acclimate to the competitive team tournament environment, and let's face it, SPL is one of the most high-pressure environments anyone will experience on the entire website. Taking a chance on a player can be high risk, and it can also be the difference maker that leads the managers to hoisting the trophy at the end of the season.” I could not say it better.

In SPL XVI, there were 13 rookies that went positive by the end of the season, from a pool of 34. Rookie campaigns from the aforementioned LpZ and Leng Loi (5-5) were key to their success, as well as that of their playoffs opponents: the Tyrants had Metallica126 (4-3) and the aforementioned vk, while the Tigers had Christos (4-4), DugZa (7-4), and Ruffles (6-5). Making sure you pick the rookies that will deliver, either in the team Discord or Smogtours, is invaluable and something that can make or break championship runs. As someone deeply involved in ADV, this year's pool features a lot of rookie talent, and thus a lot of high-end ADV talent might have an inflated price tag. Teams that buy these high-priced players will need to identify the best new talent in other gens to make their budgets work, while those who opt for rookie talent in ADV might find their budgets fit better in other gens.

To (maybe) assist managers in identifying this new talent, as well as showcase the performances of these rookies, we once again gathered the results from every positive Smogon Tournament showing this year. The wonderful Ego and defending SPL champion Expulso have also put together some short writeups about some of our up-and-comers.

I hope everyone enjoys the report and the write-ups; shoutout to Dave for being a constant inspiration and creating this article in the first place.

Point System

Officials

Circuit / Invitationals

Team Tournaments:

• Official team tours: 1000 * wins (i.e.: 7,000 for a 7-0 season in an official PL)
• Unofficial team tours: 500 * wins (i.e.: 3500 for a 7-0 season in an unofficial PL)

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After putting up strong performances in the newest OU (SV), the oldest OU (RBY), and all kinds of BW tiers, BW OU rising star Cow has amassed a beefy resume that should make sure he isn't snubbed again this year.

Cow burst onto the scene as a potential rookie last SPL, after he made finals of the BW Last Chance tour, and was called one of the two best BW newcomers. Since then, he had a 6-1 OUPL where he defeated four consecutive SPL SV OU starters (Xrn, Laroxyl, Hiko, Nat); went 5-2 in RBY OU this RBYPL; and, most significantly, won an individual tournament in his main tier of BW.

As a supporter in the Classiest team chat last year, he demonstrated an excellent knowledge of both BW OU meta trends and the preferences of individual players, and he is willing and able to build in a tier where the sample teams thread was famously sufficient for some SPL starters.

Data cannot capture one of the most valuable factors for any newcomer in SPL: their chat presence and activity. Last SPL, Cow proved that he's a chill and entertaining chat presence, and, honestly, he earns bonus points for not making a big dramatic post about how he got snubbed. He was willing to talk about SV OU despite not having much experience there, then put up some great SV performances this year. This passion and enthusiasm is really important to uplift a team and keep players motivated, and Cow has more than earned the chance to do it on the big stage.

The soft-spoken Tenebricite has burst onto the scene with very little advertising, letting his resume of official playoff appearances and strong, consistently positive team tour finishes do most of the talking. And with a Classic playoffs qualification, Masters top 16, at least a third place in the ongoing ORAS Invitational, and a whopping 40 SPL-relevant wins in this calendar year, it has done a LOT of talking—enough to make Tenebricite the NUMBER ONE prospect on our proprietary and accurate algorithm!

Tenebricite is mostly known as an ORAS player, a tough pool but nonetheless the tier where he'd most likely play. A top 3 Invitational finish where he defeated recent ORAS starters Lusa (twice) and Poek and a 7-2 record in ORASPL prove his competence there. If he wins this Invitational in the few weeks left before SPL, he could draw some comparisons to RufflesPro, an ORAS rookie who burst onto the scene with a remarkable 18.5k pricetag for his first-ever SPL.

Tenebricite has also shown the ability to branch out with a remarkable 6-1 record in Smogtours BO3 (SV, SS, and SM OU), taking down Finchinator, Punny, Fusien, Rubyblood, and TJ, who combine for over 300 combined victories on the official team tours sheet. Making DPP Cup semifinals is a cool cherry on top; even if you don't expect him to contribute anything to your team's DPP, it's nice to see that your player is a proven winner.

Finally, Tenebricite has also uploaded many thoughtful game commentaries and post-game analyses to his Youtube channel, Tenebricite, which would be a useful resource when his team's GSC sub suddenly appears to ask why he didn't click Leaf Storm on turn 27.

According to the patented SPL Rookie Formula (patent pending), the best prospective SPL rookie to accumulate all of their points in a single tier this year was RBY main GirlsSeeGhosts. SPL teams have recently tended to be conservative with starting rookies in the tier, but if you're going to convince managers otherwise, your best bet is probably to dominate every tournament you attend. I'll offer a little side-by-side of RBY OU performances this year:

• Player A: 7-1 in RBY PL, 6-1 in RBY WC, 1st in RBY Global Championship, 4th in RBY Invitational
• Player B: 6-1 in RBY PL, 5-1 in RBY WC, 2nd in RBY Global Championship, 1st in RBY Summer Seasonal

Player A has a more impressive resume, but they're incredibly similar outside of arguably the most important, that being RBY Invitational. The most expensive player in the pool will almost certainly be player A, namely Serpi. Player B is GirlsSeeGhosts, who is less likely to be the most expensive player in the pool. If every team could have a Serpi, then GirlsSeeGhosts would probably have to settle for a bench spot. Alas, there is only one Serpi, and there aren't enough reliable veterans for the other nine slots. To be clear, there is always risk with rookies, but if what you're looking for is recent results in the tier, it's almost impossible to do better than what GirlsSeeGhosts did in 2025.

BeeOrSomething ranks just behind GirlsSeeGhosts in the rookie point formula, and while Bee wasn't quite as dominant in their best performances, a few factors could make their resume even more compelling depending on the manager. First, BeeOrSomething had more noteworthy performances. They went substantially positive in three different subforums teamtours in RBY this year (RBY PL, RBY WC, RoA PL), something no one else can claim, rookie or otherwise. They went deep in RBY Cup, they went deep in RBY Invitational, and they made it to the quarterfinals of RBY Circuit playoffs. That's a lot of data to evaluate from and a lot of wins to their name.

What's also worth noting is that BeeOrSomething was highlighted as a potential impact rookie last SPL too, ranking 14th in that formula and being identified by Amaranth as a viable starter or useful backup. Instead, it was nicole7735 and Genesis7 who were the new additions to the RBY pool, with managers instead filling out the pool by calling upon veterans Prinz and spies instead. So what you have here is a player considered SPL-caliber last year, who got passed over entirely in the auction and proceeded to have an even stronger follow-up season in the tier. Then, when you consider that multiple positive starters from last year haven't yet signed up and that things didn't go too well last year for a few of the other cheap options that BeeOrSomething got passed up for, they seem very likely to take a starter spot this time around.

No potential rookies in this year's SPL performed better in their tier's invitational tournament than Underlying's 2nd place. At the same time, no potential rookies put up more wins in a single oldgen teamtour this year than Underlying's nine wins in GSC PL. Between those two tournaments, they beat, by my count, eight different GSC starters from the last two SPLs. That'll work.

I'll quote Cryonicles manager gorgie as follows: “Solid teammate, relentless competitor, undisputedly one of the most promising up-and-coming GSC talents right now. With SPL right around the corner, [it's] time to see if he's ready to step into the spotlight and push his game to an even higher level.” With Conflict, Fear, and D4 Repertoire managing and several other theoretical starters either retired or banned, there's room for new blood in a GSC pool that looks like it's up for grabs. It's hard to get much newer blood than a player whose Smogon account was made 24 years after the release of Pokémon Gold and Silver, but it's also nearly impossible to do more to establish your SPL credentials in such a short span.

Though it seems reasonably likely that there will be at least a few 2023 joindates starting this SPL, the choices get much slimmer when we turn the calendar to the class of 2024. If you had to pick one to get games this SPL, though, I think the best bet would be Fdmw, who has just kept raising their stock all year with matching 5-1 records in SMPL and OUPL and an SM Global Championship semifinal en route to the 6th seed in SM Circuit.

The Masters tiers generally look more stacked here than the Classic tiers; SM in particular could have almost all of its slots occupied by players who have already played the tier in SPL and done well. The subforum performances this year will speak for themselves as to Fdmw's playing ability, but in their pool preview, Drachenkeule also highlighted Fdmw's building abilities as a potential asset for a team's SM core. This might seem like faint praise for a top rookie column, but it's worth remembering that in the most competitive tiers there are more players who can compete at the SPL level as pilots than there are starting slots. If any 2024 joindates are going to get drafted, it will probably be determined by the other things beyond playing that they bring to the table. And if any of them get some runway to play, Fdmw has shown what they can do if they get some games.

Every SPL team needs to fill at least four SV slots. If all goes well, you can make it work with only four; the SPL XVI Tigers had their four starters play every single SV game all year en route to the finals. Not everything goes according to plan, however, and accumulating enough options to succeed with your third and fourth plans is incredibly manpower-dependent; however, it is possible, as was the case of the SPL XV Tyrants, who had eight players pick up SV games in their championship season. SPL with four SV slots tests your ability to find depth.

Qualifying for OLT Swiss grabs attention, but I'm not sure if this would be enough to secure Originality56 even a roster spot given that six other rookies made it past the Swiss stage to playoffs, most of whom picked up more impressive wins than Originality56's over crying and Unstoppable1. With that said, only one of those six actually signed up to play SV in this SPL, making the accomplishment slightly more useful as a distinguishing factor from the many SV rookies out there.

However, they also currently have the best record in the SV pool in OUPL, at 7-1 at the time of writing, with notable wins over SPL starters clean and LpZ and their sole loss coming to another likely SPL starter in Baddy. There's only one other player from OUPL who has multiple wins over recent SPL starters in the tier and has only lost to other recent SPL starters in the tier, and even if Cow seemed likely to play SV rather than BW, they don't have the OLT achievement. It's a really intriguing combination of recent results that makes me think Originality56 will get picked up this time.

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Conclusion

The auction will take place on January 3rd, and I am sure everyone is excited to see the biggest steals and overpays. I hope this report also will make everyone notice when the rookies get picked up; their performances may surprise you. Make sure to tune into the auction stream as well, and thank you everyone for reading!

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