Tier Shifts

Introduction

Tier shifts are an essential part of competitive Pokémon. Without them, tiers would not be able to evolve according to recent metagame changes, and would therefore become stale.

Tier drops enable unpopular Pokémon to find usage in lower tiers, regularly giving these tiers new tools to play with. Tier rises, on the other hand, are meant to show a Pokémon's newfound effectiveness in a higher tier, as well as its status as a legitimate threat, which must be accounted for.

Both of these often occur because of metagame shifts, recent bans, or newly released Pokémon. However, they are not immediate and usually take a few months to happen, which makes these Pokémon slowly gain or lose usage after the metagame shifts toward or away from their favor.

Main tier shifts happen every three months. During this period, and taking into account 1695 stats for OU and 1630 stats for other tiers, a Pokémon needs over 3.41% usage on average in a tier higher than its current one in order to move to it up, or it needs under 3.41% usage in its current tier in order to drop. This specific number was chosen because that amount of usage indicates that there is a 50% chance to face said that Pokémon at least once in every 20 battles. Quick rises and drops can also occur every month for Pokémon that have either over 6.7% usage in a higher tier or less than 1.7% usage in their own tier.

A Poémon can rise multiple tiers at once, but may only drop one tier per shift. The only exception to this rule is if a Poémon moved up tiers during a generation due to gaining a Mega Evolution, and then dropped back down to a tier where its Mega Stone is banned. In this case, they can be forcedropped to the tier they were in before the release of its Mega Stone. For instance, Gallade was RU before the release of its Mega Stone, and rose to BL, and later, OU. After the hype surrounding it died down, it dropped back down to UU, and was subsequently forcedropped to RU.

It is important to note that tiering, while heavily correlated to viability, is not entirely representative of it. A Pokémon that is OU by usage could theoretically be balanced in UU and even in RU or NU, while lower tiered Pokémon are often viable in higher tiers. A good example of this is Rotom-C, which, despite being RU, is still very effective in UU thanks to the high popularity of Water-types in that tier. However, viability is subjective and thus cannot serve as a foundation for a tier, while usage is objective and can be calculated, so it can easily be used for tiering. As a result, certain Pokémon will regularly find themselves in a tier where they are far too powerful and create an unbalanced metagame. In this case, they will be sent to the appropriate banlist, none of which are officially playable with the exceptions of Ubers and Anything Goes. If a Pokémon drops back to a tier from which it was already banned, it will automatically be placed in that tier's banlist.

This article will showcase the common causes behind tier rises and tier drops and how they can affect the tiers in question, by using specific examples of Pokémon that have changed tiers in ORAS.

Tier rises

One of the most common scenarios for a tier rise is a Pokémon moving simply from a banlist to a higher tier, which is mostly trivial, as it neither gives a tier the option of running this Pokémon nor prevents it from being used in a tier. Usually, this is because the Pokémon was just too powerful in a lower tier but either didn't have the offensive prowess or the defensive capabilities to shine in the higher tier until certain metagame trends moved in its favor.

A recent example of this is Klefki's rise from BL to OU. Klefki was deemed unhealthy for the UU tier ever since the beginning of Gen VI, not because of its offensive prowess or bulk, but because of how much utility it could provide for its team. Thanks to its access to excellent support moves such as Spikes, Thunder Wave, Reflect, and Light Screen, it could consistently create a condition where one of its teammates could easily sweep.

However, it remained BL for the entirety of XY as it was simply too frail to keep up with the power levels of OU, and its utility was not considered valuable enough in the tier: it suffered competition from Thundurus as a Prankster Thunder Wave user, and Spikes was not particularly good in that metagame. However, with ORAS came the introduction of two Fairy-type Mega Evolutions and a massive rise in Weavile's usage (another former BL Pokémon that rose to OU in ORAS), all of which Klefki served as good checks to, as well as a revival of hazard-stacking teams, a slight decrease in the popularity of Thundurus, and new access to a very useful move in Magnet Rise—all of these factors contributed to a slow rise in usage for Klefki, which eventually culminated in it moving to OU.

Pokémon are also known to move up tiers after gaining access to a new ability, Mega Evolution, or, in rarer cases, additions to their movepool. This has happened multiple times in ORAS and has always almost resulted in a ban from multiple successive tiers followed by a move to a higher tier. Feraligatr, for example, was quickbanned from both NU and RU after it gained access to Sheer Force, and it moved to UU shortly after, where it still dominates. An even more extreme case of this was Serperior, which, after gaining an incredible ability in Contrary, moved all the way from PU to BL, which is UU's banlist, and then to OU soon after.

Pokémon may also undeservedly move to a higher tier for no reason other than being banned from a lower tier. However, this is very uncommon. The only recent example of this happening is with Typhlosion, which, in the early stages of ORAS, was deemed too good for NU because of its excellent wallbreaking capabilities. However, it had always been a very bad Pokémon in RU, as it is completely outclassed by the likes of Houndoom, Delphox, and Emboar, and it getting banned from the tier directly below it did not change this fact in the slightest. Despite this, it moved to RU, presumably because of how many people still wanted to use Typhlosion, no matter how outclassed it was.

However, that's not to say all Pokémon that rise to higher tiers were already in a banlist. Some rise due to their qualities becoming more valuable after a metagame shift in a higher tier. One of the most notable cases of a Pokémon moving up to a higher tier was Jirachi. During the vast majority of XY, Jirachi's great typing, bulk, versatility, and ability to break through most of its checks cemented it as one of the most centralizing forces in the UU tier, even to the point where some UU players wanted it suspected. However, it wasn't suspected due to having multiple flaws such as a lack of power, heavy reliance on flinches to break certain past defensive Pokémon, a weakness to Pursuit, and the fact that it had a difficult time breaking past common Water-, Fire-, and Steel-types such as Swampert, Chandelure, and Doublade. While it had many viable sets, all of them were flawed—defensive sets heavily relied on Wish to stay healthy and therefore could have a hard time consistently walling Pokémon throughout the battle, Choice Scarf Jirachi was relatively weak to offensive Pokémon and had to rely on causing foes to flinch to revenge kill them, and mixed lure Jirachi was still unable to beat certain walls depending on what it ran and was easy to revenge kill.

In OU, however, it was a very different story. Until Aegislash's ban, Jirachi was considered unviable. Not only was it easily checked by this completely centralizing Pokémon, but it was also outclassed by it, so most Pokémon that were dealt with by Jirachi were also checked by Aegislash, and Jirachi was nowhere to be seen due to Aegislash's omnipresence. After Aegislash's ban, Pokémon that were severely hampered by it (and, by extension, Jirachi), such as Mega Gardevoir, Latios, Latias, Clefable, and Alakazam, rose in popularity. Furthermore, the coverage options of certain Pokémon like Mega Pinsir, which began to run Close Combat instead of Earthquake, and Tornadus-T, which no longer required Heat Wave and could instead run Focus Blast or Superpower, changed in Jirachi's favor. From then on, people started noticing Jirachi's capabilities as a check to Fairy- and Psychic-types more and more until it rose to OU at the very beginning of ORAS.

As you can imagine, the rise of Jirachi heavily affected the UU tier. After it left, Pokémon such as Mega Aerodactyl, Reuniclus, Whimsicott, Slurpuff, Mega Abomasnow, and Kyurem that used to suffer from Jirachi's presence in UU gained usage and viability, while Pokémon such as Mega Houndoom and Mega Aggron, which served as good checks to it, and faster Pokémon that could avoid flinching at the hands of non-Choice Scarf sets in general lost popularity. Generally speaking, slower Pokémon that used to fear getting KOed from flinching could more easily flourish with Jirachi gone, which favored a slightly slower metagame.

By comparison, Hippowdon was not as defining of a force in UU as Jirachi was. It suffered major competition from Swampert, whose Water typing gave it a couple of advantages over Hippowdon, such as a resistance to Fire, which was a very useful trait in a tier where Fire-types were so common, access to Scald, which enabled it to cripple physical attackers, and its neutrality to Water as opposed to a weakness to it. And, while Swampert had lower bulk and lacked recovery, its bulkiness was enough for UU to the point where its qualities were more desirable than Hippowdon's sheer bulk.

But in OU, Hippowdon had always been a good Pokémon thanks to its titanic defenses enabling it to handle powerful offensive threats both physically and specially, as well as the support it could provide for Sand Rush Excadrill, one of the most threatening sweepers in the tier. In fact, during most of XY, Hippowdon was considered by many players to be deserving of OU status. It took the introduction of Mega Lopunny in ORAS for it to rise to OU due to a higher number of overall threats to account for and therefore a greater need for a blanket check to a large portion of the metagame, which is exactly what Hippowdon is.

Overall, UU did not miss Hippowdon much due to how many other bulky Ground- and Water-types could replicate its role. But OU loves having it around, and it seems to have found its true home there.

Tier drops

Most tier drops occur due to unfortunate metagame shifts, which leave certain Pokémon in the dust. A lot of the time, these are due to the introduction of new threats in the metagame, creating too much competition for other Pokémon to handle. This especially applies to Mega Evolutions, since only one can be used per team, putting a much stronger cap on their usage.

For instance, the introduction of multiple new Mega Evolutions in ORAS caused former OU staples such as Heracross, Pinsir, and Medicham to drop from the tier. Indeed, the transition to ORAS gave the OU tier a roster of incredible Mega Evolutions such as Altaria, Sableye, Metagross, Lopunny, and Diancie. As such, given that only one Mega Evolution is allowed per team, some needed to drop in usage so that others could take their rightful place in OU. Although these three notorious Mega wallbreakers certainly lost some of their viability in the transition to ORAS, they still are quite good nowadays, resting between B+ and A rank in the ORAS OU viability rankings. In fact, Mega Pinsir is such a powerful wallbreaker that it was banned from UU in record time, while the two other Mega Evolutions were already banned from UU in the first place after their very brief stints in XY UU. Furthermore, once the hype surrounding newer Mega Evolutions eventually waned, Medicham and Pinsir eventually returned to OU.

Incidentally, before the November 2015 tier shifts, Pinsir and Medicham both kept dropping tiers, as their Mega Evolutions were banned in UU, and they were both very poor without them in that tier. Indeed, a Pokémon may also drop tiers due to it losing one of its main traits because of a ban. Obviously, this usually happens due to the banning of a Mega Stone. However, it can also occur after the banning of an ability or Pokémon. For example, Gothitelle and Wobbuffet were initially banned in XY UU. However, after people realized Gothorita was also banworthy there, it was decided that Shadow Tag would be banned from UU. Gothitelle and Wobbuffet, having lost what made them banworthy, were subsequently unbanned and plummeted tiers due to the fact that they are both worthless without Shadow Tag. And, although this has not happened yet, a Pokémon could, in theory, also drop due to a move being banned, making the Pokémon far less effective without the move.

Tier drops may also happen due to a Pokémon's qualities becoming less valuable. This may happen during an unfavorable metagame shift—for example, a tier becoming more offensively oriented may cause a wallbreaker to lose popularity and thus drop a tier. The banning of another Pokémon from a tier may also cause another Pokémon that was primarily used to check it to drop a tier. A great example of this is Mandibuzz, which suffered the exact opposite fate that Jirachi did. Indeed, Mandibuzz used to be a staple of OU in early-to-mid XY for its ability to counter Aegislash's most common set and being one of the only entry hazard removers to be able to square off against its Air Balloon set. After Aegislash's ban and the rise in Fairy-types, as well as powerful wallbreakers that it loathed to face, it declined in viability and, eventually, in usage. The introduction of two new Fairy-type Mega Evolutions in ORAS put the nail in the coffin of its OU status.

After dropping from OU, UU welcomed Mandibuzz in open arms. Its great bulk, vast utility movepool, and solid typing enable it to act as a very reliable wall and good entry hazard remover. However, it is far from overwhelming for the tier given that it suffers from numerous flaws, such as a complete lack of offensive presence, which leaves it vulnerable to wallbreakers, a weakness to Stealth Rock, which is especially troublesome for a Defogger, and mild four-moveslot syndrome.

If Mandibuzz were to, for whatever reason, rise back to OU, UU would probably not be too heartbroken. After all, many of its roles can be replicated by the likes of Umbreon and Gligar alike. Nonetheless, it's still a nice addition to a lot of UU teams, and it keeps powerful threats like Krookodile and Doublade in check.

However, some tier drops may have little or nothing to do with metagame changes at all. It's important to remember that tiers are determined by ladder usage, and the ladder isn't necessarily populated by knowledgeable players or even good ones. While Pokémon are usually popular for a reason, sometimes, the ladder gets it completely wrong and decides to use a Pokémon far more than it deserves to be used. Ambipom is the classic example of this. Any seasoned RU player will tell you how terrible this Pokémon is, and yet, it's nowhere close to dropping to NU. Sometimes, however, the ladder suddenly wises up and finally stops using an unviable Pokémon that had, until then, undeservedly stayed in a higher tier than it should have. In ORAS UU, this happened with Kingdra, Scrafty, and Trevenant among other Pokémon such as Flygon and Noivern.

Kingdra is not exactly terrible in UU, but its lack of power and Speed without a boost made it relatively mediocre, and its average bulk makes it difficult for Kingdra to find opportunities to set up, which it completely relies on. While it has multiple sets that seem good on paper, it suffers competition for all of them. Dragon Dance is done better by Haxorus, while Hydreigon functions far better as a Dragon-type special attacker. The transition to ORAS only made matters worse for Kingdra; Mega Swampert now acts as a far better Rain Dance sweeper, and Salamence and Sheer Force Feraligatr are both better Dragon Dance users than Kingdra. Furthermore, the popularity of Roar Suicune, Florges, and Empoleon has always been a huge problem for Kingdra, and the recent rise in the popularity of Whimsicott only added insult to injury. Generally speaking, any team that is prepared for offensive Dragon- and Water-types will also be prepared for Kingdra.

However, it ended up being far too powerful for the RU tier. Its bulk, while not very good by UU's standards, was more than enough to set up when facing RU's comparatively weaker attackers, especially given its great defensive typing. With no Empoleon or Suicune to Roar it away, it no longer had safe checks besides the mediocre Ferroseed. It also had a lot of versatility, with access to three great sets, all of which could easily cost opponents the game if they were to predict incorrectly. Swift Swim + Rain Dance was both very fast and very powerful after only one turn of setup, Sniper + Focus Energy could dismantle slower teams with no effort and, thanks to Agility, even had a chance to perform well against more offensive teams, and Dragon Dance was able to break past physical walls while being able to sweep offensive teams as well.

Scrafty probably seemed like a decent Dragon Dance or Bulk Up user to some UU players; however, it lacks the power, Speed, and typing to be effective in UU. It is far too weak to break past UU's bulkier walls and is too slow to outspeed any of UU's revenge killers at +1. As a result, it absolutely needs multiple boosts under its belt in order to sweep, which, despite its decent bulk, it cannot consistently achieve due to its poor defensive typing. Scrafty has always been severely outclassed by other UU Fighting-types such as Mienshao, Heracross, and Infernape, and Dark-types such as Krookodile, Sharpedo, and Honchkrow, all of which are much stronger and faster.

Once it dropped to the slower, slightly frailer RU tier, it quickly found itself to be one of the biggest threats, with good versatility between Dragon Dance, Choice Band, and Bulk Up sets, good offensive coverage between Knock Off, High Jump Kick, and Poison Jab, enough bulk to set up consistently, enough power to pose as an offensive threat, enough Speed to outpace a large portion of the tier after a Dragon Dance boost, and a limited pool of safe checks and counters.

However, it eventually became clear that Scrafty suffered from too many flaws to be considered overpowered, or even one of the most dominant threats in RU. Unlike Kingdra, Scrafty does not have a single set that can considerably threaten multiple playstyles. Dragon Dance has a hard time breaking past defensive teams due to Scrafty's lackluster power even after a boost, Choice Band is very poor against offensive teams due to its low Speed, and Bulk Up struggles against both offensive and defensive teams alike and is considered to be borderline unviable nowadays. Scrafty's Speed and Attack are still low even by RU standards, making it easy to check before it sets up.

Even after setting up, its weakness to priority from the likes of Fletchinder and Hitmonlee make it rather easy to revenge kill, and, while it has enough bulk to survive most priority moves from full health, it will usually take enough damage while setting up to be subsequently KOed by the priority move. It is also very vulnerable to Choice Scarf users, all of which outspeed it even after a Dragon Dance boost.

Furthermore, shortly after Scrafty's drop, and partly because of it (although not completely), many Psychic-types started carrying Dazzling Gleam with Colbur Berry, enabling them to check Scrafty. While it may have seen like a powerful threat at first, Scrafty has settled to become just an average RU Pokémon among many.

Trevenant never was a good Pokémon in UU. Despite its access to Harvest and the potentially infinite amount of Sitrus Berries that comes with it, Trevenant was just too frail for UU's standards. The fact that its only available recovery was far from reliable made it a poor wall, especially compared to the far bulkier Tangrowth, Chesnaught, and Gourgeist-XL. Despite its decent Attack stat, its Speed was also far too low to pose an offensive threat, and none of its available STAB moves were very good; as a result, it fared very poorly as an offensive Grass-type, especially when compared to far superior options such as Shaymin and Roserade.

Trevevant's bad luck did not end when it dropped to RU either. It could barely find a valuable niche there, as Tangrowth and Gourgeist-XL are still there to taunt it. That being said, it is at least better than it was in UU. Thanks to Natural Cure, it can act as a status absorber and safely switch into bulky Water-types, which love to use Scald. It can function as a decent Choice Band user thanks to its access to an excellent Ghost-type STAB move and holds a good niche as one of the best offensive Virizion checks in RU. Still, it appears to have joined Ambipom and Cinccino as one of RU's worst Pokémon.

Perhaps it will find its true calling in NU, but only time will tell.

Conclusion

Tier shifts can happen for many different reasons and lead to a large number of consequences, from a complete shift in the dynamic of a tier causing even more Pokémon to move tiers to very little impact whatsoever. But whatever effect they may have, tier shifts will always be a very important part of competitive Pokémon, as they keep the game enjoyable and give consequences to a player's choices in Pokémon, for better and for worse.

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