What's New OU: SPL and OST Edition
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Art by ausma.
Introduction
The OverUsed tier is Smogon's flagship metagame, being the most highly played non-randomized tier on Pokémon Showdown! as well as the tier of choice for Smogon's most prestigious tournaments. These tournaments bring together Smogon's best Pokémon minds and often supercharge the development of new metagame trends and strategies. Inevitably, these new trends trickle into ladder usage and eventually become reflected in usage statistics. Newest techs from high ladder also get tested and refined and find their way onto tournament teams where they get showcased at the highest levels of play. Thus, tournaments are often a productive place for analyzing the eventual direction the metagame will take. Over the last 4 months, two of Smogon's largest and most prestigious tournaments have been underway: the Smogon Premier League and the Official Smogon Tournament. Smogon Premier League (SPL) is a team tournament that takes place over 9 weeks and showcases every OU metagame in Smogon's history. However, it features heavy representation of the current generation OU metagame and has historically been known for its influence in setting metagame trends. The Official Smogon Tournament is the oldest official singles tournament on Smogon, featuring only the current generation of OverUsed. In this article, we'll be taking a deep dive into how these tournaments shaped the SV OU metagame in early 2023 and what bearing they might have on its future.
Rise of Shed Tail Hyper Offense
The breakout archetype of SPL was undoubtably Shed Tail hyper offense. The primary idea behind the archetype was to utilize Orthworm's excellent bulk to set up a Shed Tail and pass to a setup sweeper that could blow holes in the opponent's team. Typical choices for sweepers included Pokémon such as Calm Mind Espathra, Swords Dance Chien-Pao, Calm Mind Iron Valiant, Dragon Dance Roaring Moon, offensive Volcarona, and Booster Energy Iron Moth. The emergence of hyper offense in general also led to the rise of dedicated suicide leads like Focus Sash Meowscarada, which can set up entry hazards while also preventing opposing ones and setup with Taunt. The team structure of Shed Tail hyper offense exploited the common bulky offense cores that were popular around that time and heavily punished the passive sets run by popular defensive cores such as Toxapex, Garganacl, and Corviknight. Notably, defensive Great Tusk, which was in a huge number of teams, was complete setup fodder for Orthworm. Rather surprisingly, however, its prominence in SPL was short lived, as Orthworm saw relatively little usage after its breakout in Week 4. The reason behind this was twofold. Firstly, two key Pokémon that takes advantage of Shed Tail in Chien-Pao and Espathra got banned from the tier, and second, players expected heavy countermeasures. These concerns were indeed justified, as Dragapult usage soared. Thanks to Infiltrator and high natural Speed, Dragapult could bypass Substitute and dual screens to KO frail setup sweepers commonly used on hyper offense teams. Balanced teams also started to utilize Unaware cores consisting of Pokémon such as Skeledirge and Dondozo to stonewall any setup attempt. Ting-Lu also emerged as a popular counter thanks to its access to phazing with Whirlwind and plenty of additional utility due to its immense bulk and ability to set up hazards. Finally, Red Card usage also increased, especially on Regenerator Pokémon such as Amoonguss and Toxapex, since they could tank most hits and force out an opposing sweeper. However, even though Shed Tail usage fell off in SPL, it would soon return with a vengeance.
Metagame innovations against passivity
Before the rise of hyper offense in the metagame and even for a brief time after, defensive Pokémon such as Corviknight, Toxapex, Slowking and Garganacl frequently ran very passive sets focused around dealing chip damage and spreading status. A common way to check physical attackers such as Kingambit or Dragonite involved burning them with Will-O-Wisp or Flame Body from either Rotom-W or bulky Volcarona. Players quickly realized that several of these strategies could be easily circumvented. Baxcalibur had already been on the rise as an alternative to Chien-Pao, but it also conveniently exploited the passivity of defensive cores reliant on Will-O-Wisp. It could set up on both non-Thunder Wave Rotom-W and bulky Volcarona with relative impunity and threaten heavy damage on Great Tusk, opening up the way for other sweepers like Kingambit. A key tech was the rise of Substitute usage on Pokémon such as Dragapult, Hydreigon, Dragonite, and Skeledirge. Substitute let sweepers like Dragapult avoid status from Toxapex and, since Toxapex commonly only ran either Surf or Infestation as its attacking moves, it had no way to break a Substitute. But more importantly, Salt Cure from Garganacl was unable to break a Substitute from Dragapult. Since Garganacl at the time commonly ran Salt Cure as its only attacking move, this left very prone to being set up on and either PP stalled with Phantom Force or KOed with Dragon Darts. Similarly, with Terastallization or enough defensive investment, Skeledirge could utilize Substitute to block Salt Cure from Garganacl and threaten heavy damage and set up with Torch Song. Meanwhile, Substitute over Roost on offensive Dragonite lets it avoid Will-O-Wisp from Rotom-W and Volcarona, which were commonly used as Dragonite checks. In a similar vein, Kingambit started running Tera Fire or Lum Berry to freely set up on any attempt to burn it. Crucially, Tera Fire allowed it to set up on bulky Volcarona, which was very common during that time. While this represented a trend attempting to exploit the general passivity in the metagame, the crux of this trend was reached in the rise of Substitute + Nasty Plot Hydreigon. Although not immediately obvious, Great Tusk's most common set in the metagame was actually surprisingly passive. Defensive Great Tusk ran Earthquake, Knock Off, Rapid Spin, and Stealth Rock for excellent role compression. However, this meant it was highly susceptible against Ground-immune Pokémon that weren't weak to Knock Off. This is where Hydreigon slotted in perfectly, being able to effortlessly set up a Substitute on Great Tusk and immediately threaten to set up with Nasty Plot. Thanks to its excellent movepool and coverage, it was nigh impossible to check it once behind a Substitute without sacrificing a Pokémon or two in the process. Additionally, it was also able to set up on the aforementioned Rotom-W, Toxapex, and Garganacl and threaten them with Nasty Plot-boosted moves, almost directly causing a decrease in their usage.
The rise of these strategies that punish defensive play led to the metagame skewing more offensive as can be clearly seen in the February and March usage statistics. In March, the entire top 10 is composed of offensive threats like Kingambit, Dragapult, and Iron Valiant, while defensive Pokémon like Rotom-W, Ting-Lu, and Garganacl suffered heavy drops in usage. Even among individual Pokémon, we see evidence towards more proactive play, with Great Tusk running Close Combat more frequently in March and the emergence of Choice Band Dragonite, which could now 2HKO the Unaware Pokémon that would stop its Dragon Dance sets. Eject Pack usage also increased on Great Tusk and Gholdengo, enabling them to spam a powerful STAB move and still keep momentum. However, the coolest example of metagame counter innovation was seen in the rise of Assault Vest Toxapex. Many had questioned Toxapex's passivity in SV OU and with the most recent trends, and some even entertained the thought that maybe Toxapex was past its prime. Enter Assault Vest Toxapex. While it sounds ridiculous at first glance, thanks to Regenerator, the loss of Recover wasn't a huge concern, especially since teams started to pair it with Scream Tail, which could keep it healthy with Wish. Additionally, by running Assault Vest to bolster its Special Defense, Toxapex could now run maximum Special Attack investment, with Surf and Sludge Bomb now packing a serious punch. Sludge Bomb could now OHKO Iron Valiant and also had the potential to land a crippling poison on potential switch-ins like Rotom-W and Slowking. Now, Toxapex could deal solid damage to Pokémon such as Hydreigon and Kingambit looking to exploit the passivity of standard Toxapex. Furthermore, thanks to Infestation and Acid Spray, Toxapex was capable of removing key defensive Pokémon such as Amoonguss, Clodsire, and Garganacl, opening the way for another sweeper such as Choice Specs Dragapult or Iron Valiant. This versatility of the Assault Vest set made it a strong set in its own right rather than a gimmick.
Walking Wake: Broken Threat or Merely Average?
In a surprise move by Game Freak, Walking Wake and Iron Leaves were introduced to the game on February 27th. While the consensus on Iron Leaves was that it was rather mediocre in SV OU, Walking Wake was considered a massive threat. It wasn't particularly hard to see why either; huge Special Attack stat, good Speed tier, fantastic dual STAB combination in Water and Dragon, and an expansive movepool. The most devastating option for Walking Wake was the Choice Specs set, which was a massive threat on sun teams thanks to Hydro Steam and a semi-permanent Protosynthesis boost. Protosynthesis-boosted Hydro Steam or Draco Meteor was extremely hard to switch into without running very specific counters such as Tera Fairy Water Absorb Clodsire or specially defensive Toxapex. Although Azumarill usage had fallen off heavily, being able to resist both of Wake's STAB moves led to the return of Azumarill and its Assault Vest sets, especially on more offensively inclined teams. Indeed, Walking Wake singlehandedly cause a huge surge in sun teams. Understandably, this led to a large outcry, calling for suspect action and a vote by the OU council. While the council vote on Walking Wake did not meet the threshold for a quickban, a suspect test was set up for the community to vote. From the get-go, there were fairly strong arguments from both the pro- and anti-ban sides. The pro-ban voters concluded that Walking Wake put extremely strong constraints on teambuilding, especially balanced teams, requiring the use of highly specific counters. However, the anti-ban arguments posited that pro-ban sentiments were rather hasty and given time for the teams to adapt, Walking Wake counterplay such as specially defensive Toxapex, Tera Water Garganacl, and Slowking would become more common.
It was during the middle of the suspect test that Walking Wake became usable during Week 8 of SPL. The results of this week were hotly anticipated, since it would suggest how top players would deal with Walking Wake. After the dust settled, it indeed seemed like calls of Walking Wake's supposed brokenness might have been too early. Though it was highly used, Walking Wake severely underperformed with only a 23% winrate. Slowking, Clodsire, and Toxapex's usage all rose between weeks 7 and 8 as teams adapted to check Walking Wake. Walking Wake usage cratered the following week of SPL, going from 3rd overall in Week 8 to 27th in Week 9. Wake's poor SPL performance at the highest levels of competitive SV OU was hard to ignore. With the hype fading, calls for Walking Wake's ban began to steadily die down as tournament strategies began to percolate down to ladder usage. In the eventual suspect vote, Walking Wake was found solidly not banworthy, with 57% of voters choosing not to ban.
The second coming of Shed Tail
While Shed Tail usage fell off during SPL, it once again returned to dominate the ladder and during the later rounds of the Official Smogon Tournament (OST). With the metagame stabilizing after the additions of Walking Wake and Iron Leaves, players realized that the elements that made Shed Tail strong were still present. Orthworm being able to pass a slow Substitute to a frail sweepers was extremely strong, since it guaranteed an intact Substitute, arguably even stronger than Cyclizar's. Pair that with Terastallization shenanigans to make breaking the Substitute a nightmare, and it becomes clear why Shed Tail teams were an absolute menace. Furthermore, by this point in time, Shed Tail teams had now become highly refined. Unlike during the first few weeks of SPL, Shed Tail teams dropped Grimmsnarl instead to opt for entry hazard stacking support. Glimmora had become a near-staple in the archetype for setting up hazards early in the game, and Kingambit was added as a late-game cleaner. Kingambit sets had started to undergo changes now, running maximum Speed and Low Kick for KOing opposing Kingambit in the mirror match. New sets for old reliables were also innovated such as Swords Dance Iron Valiant with Encore and Taunt Dragon Dance Roaring Moon. Taunt prevented attempts at phazing, while Encore could punish passive moves such as Roost or Recover and use them as a setup opportunity. Between the ability to overwhelm shared checks and the general unpredictability of setup sweepers with Tera mechanics, it was very hard to counter Shed Tail hyper offense. The setup sweepers in Iron Valiant, Roaring Moon, and Volcarona were terrifying in their own right, and Shed Tail simply pushed them over the edge. The archetype arguably reached its pinnacle in the finals of OST, showing up in every game and being piloted to a win by Vert. Check out the final series here!
By this time, it had become clear to the wider playerbase that Shed Tail was too oppressive of a move, especially in conjunction with Terastallization. In a metagame survey, Shed Tail received a record 42% 5-point rating for tiering action. This led to a subsequent Council vote and a quickban from the tier, bringing down the curtains on Shed Tail's existence in SV OU.
Closing Words
With the Shed Tail ban, balanced teams once again have room to breathe without fear of getting immediately overwhelmed. Hyper offense, and offense in general, still remain the most influential team style, although balance teams have started to gain popularity. Specifically, Garganacl, which was heavily kept in check by Shed Tail-based offenses, has now began to pop up again. This has led to questions whether it might be too strong for the SV OU metagame, although there doesn't seem to be a strong consensus for now. There will definitely be strong scrutiny as the metagame evolves. However, with Pokémon Home on the horizon to potentially drop a number of influential Pokémon in the SV OU metagame, the future SV OU metagame might end up looking nothing like the one we play now. With all of the twists and turns in its evolution, SV OU still remains as fresh as the day it was released. Here's to many more years of a dynamic and creative SV OU metagame!
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