I want to talk about a few endgames that can happen:
1. We lynch village today.
1a. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 1/2/1 split.
1b. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 2/2/1 split, and mafia know the wolf.
1c. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 2/1/1 split.
1d. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 3/1/1 split, and mafia knows the wolf.
2. We lynch mafia today.
2a. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 2/1/1 split.
2b. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 3/1/1 split.
2c. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 3/0/1 split.
2d. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 4/0/1 split.
3. We lynch wolf today. We enter tomorrow with a 3/2/0 split.
If town knew the identity of the wolf, we'd be fools to vote for anyone else. Voting elsewhere, even if we hit mafia, is likely to lead to scenario 2a, which requires the village to nolynch and then for both scumteams to hit one another. Winning as village without hitting the wolf today requires a lot of crossfire between the two scumteams, as well as several correct lynches in a row.
On the other hand, if town knew the identity of the werewolf and then voted that person out, we'd be left with the 3/2/0 split. Even if we did vote mafia out the following day, that would put us down to a 2 v 1, which the mafia have a 66% chance of winning.
What I'm trying to say is, the main threat to a mafia victory here is the wolf. Mafia should strongly consider open claiming in order to get the wolf lynched. If village know who the wolf is, village always votes wolf instead of mafia. And as mafia, your odds of winning are better if town lynches wolf and then lynches mafia than if town lynches town or mafia today.