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NOC Working Title Mafia (Game Thread) [Mafia Wins]

Day 1
Dead by Daylight (8): genisu, JALMONT, Redless, joey, Catfries
joey (5):
Dead by Daylight, M2H, Alice Kazumi
des121 (2): Lechen
StupidFlandrs48 (2): HydrogenHydreigon
JALMONT (1):
des121
Redless (1): ElectricityCat

Day 2
Jalmont (11): M2H, Lechen, des121, Redless, Catfries, ElectricityCat
Redless (5): joey, JALMONT, StupidFlandrs48
Joey (4): saber, Hydro
Catfries (2): pulsar

Day 3
pulsar512b (7): Lechen, des121, StupidFlandrs48, joey, ElectricityCat, Catfries
des121 (2): saberslasher11, Redless
Redless (1): HydrogenHydreigon
joey (1): pulsar512b

Here are the votes, for reference.

Ecat and Catfries leapt onto all mislynch wagons so far, including both days where a Joey vote was gaining traction. Des was an early adopter to two of the three mislynches. Flandrs voted town or idled every day, including on day 3 when he was an early pulsar wagon adopter.

Des vote looks most promising to me from this. What do others think?
 
chat are we seeing the vision of a joey/redless (or flandrs)/ecat (or catfries)
i cant see mafia!saber at all i explained previously
des just seems like new player trying their best honestly and both times the mislynches were a result of them following lechen who unfort happened to be incorrect those days; im not sure if that was tactical but it makes me feel better abt them
redless/flandrs are surely t/t or t/s here unless flandrs is going for an insane bus, and honestly both have been scummy enough for me to think t/s is likely, personally i think redless is the scummier of the two
ecat for reasons a mentioned before but also catfries straight up hasnt gotten better
the one thing im iffy about is redless/ecat are independently scummy, but redless has put a hard vote on ecat before.. maybe he read that ecat was an unlikely target at all? but redless/catfries is probably very likely too
 
I want to talk about a few endgames that can happen:

1. We lynch village today.
1a. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 1/2/1 split.
1b. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 2/2/1 split, and mafia know the wolf.
1c. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 2/1/1 split.
1d. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 3/1/1 split, and mafia knows the wolf.

2. We lynch mafia today.
2a. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 2/1/1 split.
2b. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 3/1/1 split.
2c. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 3/0/1 split.
2d. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 4/0/1 split.

3. We lynch wolf today. We enter tomorrow with a 3/2/0 split.

If town knew the identity of the wolf, we'd be fools to vote for anyone else. Voting elsewhere, even if we hit mafia, is likely to lead to scenario 2a, which requires the village to nolynch and then for both scumteams to hit one another. Winning as village without hitting the wolf today requires a lot of crossfire between the two scumteams, as well as several correct lynches in a row.

On the other hand, if town knew the identity of the werewolf and then voted that person out, we'd be left with the 3/2/0 split. Even if we did vote mafia out the following day, that would put us down to a 2 v 1, which the mafia have a 66% chance of winning.

What I'm trying to say is, the main threat to a mafia victory here is the wolf. Mafia should strongly consider open claiming in order to get the wolf lynched. If village know who the wolf is, village always votes wolf instead of mafia. And as mafia, your odds of winning are better if town lynches wolf and then lynches mafia than if town lynches town or mafia today.
btw this forgot the possibility of maf/ww targeting the same person for a kill again, this adds a 2/2/1 to 1 and 3/1/1 to 2
 
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