NOC Lumiose Legends Mafia - GAME OVER (Mafia Win)

Can someone remind me how each of these scenarios shakes out / check my understanding?
It's 7 v 4 rn. Calcs below are subtracting a player for vote negation purposes.
  • If both charlie and JALMONT are scum and we vote town (OR if both jalmont and charlie hit town regardless of alignment) > 6v4 after vote, jalmont kills 1 town w/ vig + charlie negates another + night kill = 3v4: scum wins
  • If both charlie and JALMONT are scum and we vote scum (OR if both jalmont and charlie hit town regardless of alignment) > 7v3 after vote, jalmont kills 1 town w/ vig + charlie negates another + night kill = 3v3: scum wins
  • If only one of charlie and JALMONT are scum and we vote town (AND only one of these roles hits town) > 6v4 after vote, ONE of charlie/jalmont hits town + night kill = 4v3: LYLO
  • If only one of charlie and JALMONT are scum and we vote scum (AND only one of these roles hits town) > 7v3 after vote, ONE of charlie/jalmont hits town + night kill = 5v2: 1 misvote left (unless charlie mistargets day after, in which case scum wins)
  • If neither charlie and JALMONT are scum AND neither hits town and we vote town > 6v4 after vote, night kill = 5v2
  • If neither charlie and JALMONT are scum AND neither hits town and we vote scum > 7v3 after vote, night kill = 6v1
 
sunny004 said:
Can someone remind me how each of these scenarios shakes out / check my understanding?
It's 7 v 4 rn. Calcs below are subtracting a player for vote negation purposes.
  • If both charlie and JALMONT are scum and we vote town (OR if both jalmont and charlie hit town regardless of alignment) > 6v4 after vote, jalmont kills 1 town w/ vig + charlie negates another + night kill = 3v4: scum wins
  • If both charlie and JALMONT are scum and we vote scum (OR if both jalmont and charlie hit town regardless of alignment) > 7v3 after vote, jalmont kills 1 town w/ vig + charlie negates another + night kill = 3v3: scum wins
  • If only one of charlie and JALMONT are scum and we vote town (AND only one of these roles hits town) > 6v4 after vote, ONE of charlie/jalmont hits town + night kill = 4v3: LYLO
  • If only one of charlie and JALMONT are scum and we vote scum (AND only one of these roles hits town) > 7v3 after vote, ONE of charlie/jalmont hits town + night kill = 5v2: 1 misvote left (unless charlie mistargets day after, in which case scum wins)
  • If neither charlie and JALMONT are scum AND neither hits town and we vote town > 6v4 after vote, night kill = 5v2
  • If neither charlie and JALMONT are scum AND neither hits town and we vote scum > 7v3 after vote, night kill = 6v1
Click to expand...
I guess this also doesn't take into account the multiple BPV+DPV+redirect claims which can complicate stuff
 
I've said this before but if jalmont is scum there's a very real possibility he just lied about his role. You don't have to assume that he's got an extra kill for scum in his pocket if he is scum. In that sense the same logic applies as for charlie: if you really think he's scum you should vote him and rally others to do the same, but doing it just based on mechanics is wrong. Flipside is, they provide an out to miseliming if they're town.
 
Anyway my day's been really busy, I found the time to give everything exactly one read but no time to stew, so I may end up sheeping Vizh a bit here since I gotta stream in 45. I might be done before EoD. I am (as always) rather nervous for this vote. I'm glad NE and Jalmont ended up contributing a lot more. Personally I think the most likely scum configs involve NE and/or Jalmont, and there's a nonzero chance their posts towards each other are distancing to help the survivor. There was one post where Jalmont was kind of asking the question "what am I doing all this for? you think I'd do this if I'm scum? I'd just vote off Skipper/Neon" but like...you can't vote Skipper off by yourself, you'd need other people to go along, so yes, you'd do exactly this if you are scum. Arguing for someone else to be voted off over you is NAI.
 
Mekkah said:
I've said this before but if jalmont is scum there's a very real possibility he just lied about his role. You don't have to assume that he's got an extra kill for scum in his pocket if he is scum. In that sense the same logic applies as for charlie: if you really think he's scum you should vote him and rally others to do the same, but doing it just based on mechanics is wrong. Flipside is, they provide an out to miseliming if they're town.
Click to expand...
Sure I grant that for jalmont but isn’t Charlie’s mech confirmed
 
That said I think there's something to be said for charlie's logic that if that was their real role but they're scum, they'd keep it hidden instead of claiming it. I can tinfoil arguments against that (maybe they can't idle it for balancing reasons, maybe they didn't think of that early on, maybe they didn't know it'd show up in the official votecounts, maybe they don't have better claim material)
 
sunny004 said:
WTF??? Even accounting for the whole "keeping people accountable for their targets line" this seems asinine.


Yea and I even forgot to mention this point in my original AG vote. So AG is basically just a combined me + des + BD (I think I said blazade in my original post but going back I think that's wrong) which reinforces my thought that this seems way too powerful on one slot
Click to expand...
Catching up. It was basically 2-shot with a delay. My mega is completely different.
 
Votecount 4.2: Votes are Very Few
JALMONT (2): Vizh, Mekkah
Aura Guardian (2): sunny004, marlyne
NightEmerald (1): JALMONT
ImaginaryNeon (0): CrreamyKitty

Not Voting (5): charlieum, HydrogenHydreigon, ImaginaryNeon, Aura Guardian, NightEmerald

Hammer will be called at 6 votes.

Deadline is in 2.5 hours. Please notify me of any errors I may have made in this VC.
 
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