Bro won 2 SPL and made 12 playoffs but there is people with 8 messages on Smogon thinking they're in the same spot
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Smogon Premier League XVI - Commencement Thread
- Thread starter goldmason
- Start date
wooooooo super late again im on holiday and spending 99% of my free time playing balatro!!
I haven't done much for this season as I was on holiday, but the team took care of everything and I really wanna shoutouts Irpachuza Turtleye_ and especially sharpclaw, deetah & RADU, who all went crazy this edition!
It's rly nice seeing how many people are involved now, and big thanks to managers who are always super creative with their ideas, and super nice to work with.
The only sprite I made this season was
Circus Maximus Tigers
AI-Sada sprite by Brumirage, edits by myself
see y'all for world cup o7
I haven't done much for this season as I was on holiday, but the team took care of everything and I really wanna shoutouts Irpachuza Turtleye_ and especially sharpclaw, deetah & RADU, who all went crazy this edition!
It's rly nice seeing how many people are involved now, and big thanks to managers who are always super creative with their ideas, and super nice to work with.
The only sprite I made this season was
Circus Maximus Tigers
AI-Sada sprite by Brumirage, edits by myself
see y'all for world cup o7
nicole7735, SaDiSTiCNarwhal, Sceptross, and I (and potentially more!) will be streaming the SPL XVI RBY Smogcast on my Twitch tomorrow at 3 PM -8 / 6 PM -5 / 12 AM +2 to discuss the upcoming RBY OU season. The vod will later be uploaded to my Youtube.
Aliss, nicole7735, SaDiSTiCNarwhal, Sceptross, and I recorded the SPL XVI RBY Smogcast! Check out the stats I collected and our final Power Rankings here.
Also, check out marcoasd's video on the SPL XVI RBY Starters!
Can we get a way for us to check our own predictions for the week I forgot most of what I voted on
Thats cool but unless I'm missing something I dont think it shows me what I voted on?
planning on covering every single game of mine on a bi-weekly basis for this year's SPL
if you enjoy, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, & COMMENT. if you have any feedback, please let me know as well. I WILL be including losses, unlike many Pokemon influencers. I do NOT plan on losing that much though, lol.
take care
take care
In light of recent events:
SV OU:
DPP OU:
I'm the best player in the pool and I'm ready to save SPL. I'm also the randbats + discord goat. #DriftingMidz
SV OU:
- Drafted in WCoP and SCL for the last two years to play/help teammates with SV OU
- 4-2 in WCoP overall
- vs Fogbound Lake https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ou-773832
- 4-1 in OUPL
- Ladder peak 2080
- Can build for myself and others
DPP OU:
- Top 16 in DPP Open
- vs NoName https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen4ou-783396 https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen4ou-783397
- vs reyscarface https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen4ou-782180 https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen4ou-782184
- vs elodin https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen4ou-786613
- 3-1 in DPPPL
- vs violet river https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen4ou-771333
I'm the best player in the pool and I'm ready to save SPL. I'm also the randbats + discord goat. #DriftingMidz
Elodin against Sergio was not counted I believe. It was a turn 1 timeout loss that couldn’t be replayed due to a major storm causing a prolonged outage.
this is correct, Elodin v Sergio is scored as No Game for the sake of predictions
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NYANPASU!! Welcome to another edition of the UNBIASED MIDSEASON POWER RANKINGS! 4 weeks have been played, and we have a good idea on where teams stand. Of course, there are still a lot of games to be played. Last year, the Sharks famously "Locked In" near the end of the season, as their players obnoxiously spammed "Lock In" GIFs in the Smogtours Discord and almost managed to will their team to a playoff berth. They would ultimately fall short, though, which is not that surprising. It is hard to dig yourself out of a hole in this tournament. Some teams are certainly in rather dire straights right now, while others are cruising. Some have greatly exceeded my expectations while other teams are sabotaging me. These rankings will be based on my initial views of each team as well as the current performances of these squads. Let's get into it.
10. The Cryonicles
This was the team pretty much no one believed in heading into the tournament. I only saw a singular non-Cryos person in the entire Smogtours Discord pick this team to make the playoffs. That should really tell you something. They somehow managed to just draft players who came out of sheet retirement just for this tour, which usually is not a good sign. While they are currently not last place, they are only one point from last and, personally, I just don't really see the talent here. Their ORAS slot has been an abject disaster; the problems started in Week 1, when Axel made BluBird, someone who is 6-15 on the sheet and is now benched heading into Week 5, look like prime Tesung. Perhaps the most surprising part of the team is that ACR1 and Pais, two individuals who have been solid on the sheet thus far, are 1-7 combined. I do think they can improve a bit on these records, but I also would be surprised to see players like Sceptross continuing to succeed at this level. Personally, I would just be highly surprised if this team made a playoff push.
9. The Ever Grande BIGs
It really might be time for the BIGs rebrand. If they miss the playoffs with this managing core, I really have 0 faith. Finchinator I trust you to make a thread should the BIGs fail; I will support you this time without question. Anyway, while nothing is set in stone yet, things are certainly extremely dire for this franchise right now. Having 2 points heading into Week 5 is not a place any team wants to be. Perhaps the most surprising part of the roster so far is the failure of ArcticBreeze, who has followed up his 6-3 campaign two years ago with a 0-4 outing this time around. My sources have informed me that he has not played particularly horribly, but still, being 0-4 is certainly not a good luck. He does have ABR still, so maybe they can figure out a way to turn around the fortunes of this slot. The team is heavily relying on US West, especially with the insertion of tko into the starting lineup. Players like emforbes and lax may be able to string together some wins, and Lasse should be able to stabilize his madhouse record going forward. There is talent here; after all, I did put them in the playoffs heading into the season. Nonetheless, the fact that they have 2 points means that they certainly can't be put any higher than this.
8. The Wi-Fi Wolfpack
This team is technically in 4th right now, but they are only 1 point away from 9th; there just happens to be a huge congregation of teams from after the top 2. They do have an extra point over the Tigers and Sharks, but personally, I just like those rosters more. Ewin has been a big reason for the team's success, having notched big wins against players like Hellom and Mada. Void is also 3-1, but personally, I refuse to believe he will continue succeeding at this level, so I do expect some regression there. I just think this team has less talent than other rosters, and their schedule appears to be a bit harder than other teams around them as well; they have not played the top 2 teams in the tournament thus far and have already played the bottom 2 teams in these Power Rankings. They probably have the hardest schedule in the tournament. Perhaps the Classiest will already be clinched by Week 9, though, which may help their chances. The margins for these spots are tight, so for now, I will throw this team in 8th.
7. The Circus Maximus Tigers
The Tigers were on the brink of elimination in Week 4, but managed to score an upset win against the Ruiners to keep their dreams alive. They certainly would have been out of the tournament if they did not manage that feat. The team features an upgraded roster from what they started out the tournament with, as Malekith has replaced Sergio Aguero, who is 3-17 on the sheet, in BW OU. They slightly downgraded in the madhouse, but who cares about that? The team's biggest weakness thus far appears to be RBY, as Genesis7 + mozes have combined for 0 wins. They are bound to win a game eventually, but things are certainly dire on this front. The primary reason that the team is still in contention is the performance of baddummy, who is unsurprisingly proving to be the best pick of the entire auction. Who could have possibly guessed that getting him for 3k would be good? Crazy! I'm not sure if he can continue succeeding at this pace, but he already took down Roro, so perhaps, in a weaker ADV pool than past years, it is possible; he has certainly played well in the games I have seen. Kenix is also unsurprisingly proving himself to be a sheet god, and could easily be 4-0 had luck not intervened in his game against Conflict; he is certainly one of the best players on the site at this point, ngl. This team could certainly battle back, but they still have at least 1 less point than most of the teams above them, which may prove to be the difference in a tournament as tight as this.
6. The Stark Sharks
The Sharks have certainly struggled this season, but did at least manage to tie the Raiders last week to keep their hopes alive. The biggest shock so far has been TDNT's awful performance; the SS God surprisingly finds himself on the bench for Week 5. Jyt has also regressed from his SCL form, which has also been an issue. The team has shuffled many players in and out of the lineup, which usually isn't a good sign; some players should bounce back, such as Niko, while others, such as River, may be better off armchairing on Discord. Ultimately, I will bank on TDNT returning to form; if he does, this team has shown it has the capability to contend with anyone. Conflict should certainly continue winning, which should definitely help this team battle back from the hole they have put themselves in. If you think TDNT will continue to struggle, then you probably think the Sharks should be lower on these PRs, which is certainly fair. Their Week 5 clash with the Ruiners will be pivotal for their season. For now, though, I will bank on this team's talent for a little longer.
5. The Indie Scooters
The biggest surprise here is Garay being 4-0. He notably never has exceptional sheet performances, so this result has been a big surprise thus far. Personally, I think he will regress to the mean from here; the sheet doesn't lie. Perhaps this tour will be a copy of this World Cup run, though, in which case, the Scooters could certainly do some damage. This team has a lot of potential if Garay continues playing at this level; that's for sure. As expected, robjr continues being a good value pick for 3k; who could have expected that!? Felix should certainly rebound from his struggles and the team should pick up some madhouse wins eventually. As usual, though, spending 10k on the madhouse is never a good idea; I am glad they are being punished for it. Anyway, I will a.so believe in hellom to do well the rest of the year. If you think Garay is going to continue being a world-beater, then you could easily argue that this is a top 3 team heading into Week 5. I will remain a bit skeptical, though.
4. The Dragonspiral Tyrants
The Tyrants got a huge win last week to put them back in a solid position. The main reason they are this high, though, is that their team is receiving a big boost with the return of Luthier in Week 5. He should definitely help shore up the lineup and give them a good shot to make a run. This is important, since Luigi and spies both got absolutely annihilated this season; Luispeiko did manage to win in RBY last week, at least. Perhaps the biggest surprise so far has been the performance of Poek, who has managed to win 3 games in 4 weeks. If he can keep this up, the Tyrants could certainly make some noise. BKC has also been solid so far, although I will refuse to completely believe in him for now; luckily, Luthier's return should help alleviate some of the issues caused by BKC's predicted regression. SoulWind should also do a bit better throughout the season, although him being 2-2 is not entirely surprising. The Tyrants play the bottom 2 teams in the Power Rankings in the next 2 weeks; if they can capitalize on those matchups, they should be able to make the playoffs yet again.
3. The Team Raiders
If you told me that Michael + Skype would be 3-5 heading into Week 5, I certainly would not have picked the Raiders to make the playoffs. However, the team has still managed to amass 4 points, which makes me confident in them heading into the remainder of the campaign. Gama has been the main carry of the team, and he has had amazing sheet performances before, so perhaps this is the start of a glorious outing. I expect Monai to regress a bit, but Skype and Michael should be able to dominate from here on out; I will continue to believe in them. The team has gotten decent performances from some of their value pieces, which is not entirely surprising. The main argument against them is that they have to play the Classiest and the Ruiners in the next 2 weeks; however, their last 3 weeks certainly appear to be more farmable. I think this team should be able to make it.
2. The Alpha Ruiners
Every year, I go against the Ruiners, and every year, this franchise manages to exceed my expectations. What a meme. Anyway, I still don't believe in this team as much as other people, but if you have 6 points through 3 weeks, you probably have to be this high. I think some of their players should regress; I would be rather surprised if watashi put up a dominant SPL showing this late into his Pokemon career, for example, but players like oldspicemike and Punny may just continue winning. CrisPBacon has surprised me, and Fog may just be back on his sheet farming arc. The team also finally decided to bench erz, who is 2-20 in the past 4 years, so they even managed to improve the roster heading into Week 5. This is unfortunate, since Sweepage could use some company. Anyway, the team is certainly better than I originally thought; I will still remain a bit skeptical, but they should make the playoffs, at the very least. It would take a pretty historic collapse not to, especially since the play the Cryonicles in Week 9, who will almost certainly be eliminated by then.
1. The Congregation of the Classiest
Well, this is the main thing I got right this SPL. The Classiest are the best team. As usual, spending 3k on the madhouse works. Shocking guys! The main surprise here has been the performance of the team's cheap SV core; they have really performed, which has given me even more hope in the team. If they bought Kenix instead of BIHI, I would say this was the best team by a mile, honestly. BIHI should improve from here, though, and in the playoffs, he should be a force to be reckoned with in tiebreaks. This should help counteract Groudon's inevitable regression. There is not that much to say here; this team should easily cruise into the playoffs and they have some extremely capable players to play tiebreaks with. They are certainly the favorite to win SPL at this juncture.
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the UNBIASED MIDSEASON POWER RANKINGS!
10. The Cryonicles
This was the team pretty much no one believed in heading into the tournament. I only saw a singular non-Cryos person in the entire Smogtours Discord pick this team to make the playoffs. That should really tell you something. They somehow managed to just draft players who came out of sheet retirement just for this tour, which usually is not a good sign. While they are currently not last place, they are only one point from last and, personally, I just don't really see the talent here. Their ORAS slot has been an abject disaster; the problems started in Week 1, when Axel made BluBird, someone who is 6-15 on the sheet and is now benched heading into Week 5, look like prime Tesung. Perhaps the most surprising part of the team is that ACR1 and Pais, two individuals who have been solid on the sheet thus far, are 1-7 combined. I do think they can improve a bit on these records, but I also would be surprised to see players like Sceptross continuing to succeed at this level. Personally, I would just be highly surprised if this team made a playoff push.
9. The Ever Grande BIGs
It really might be time for the BIGs rebrand. If they miss the playoffs with this managing core, I really have 0 faith. Finchinator I trust you to make a thread should the BIGs fail; I will support you this time without question. Anyway, while nothing is set in stone yet, things are certainly extremely dire for this franchise right now. Having 2 points heading into Week 5 is not a place any team wants to be. Perhaps the most surprising part of the roster so far is the failure of ArcticBreeze, who has followed up his 6-3 campaign two years ago with a 0-4 outing this time around. My sources have informed me that he has not played particularly horribly, but still, being 0-4 is certainly not a good luck. He does have ABR still, so maybe they can figure out a way to turn around the fortunes of this slot. The team is heavily relying on US West, especially with the insertion of tko into the starting lineup. Players like emforbes and lax may be able to string together some wins, and Lasse should be able to stabilize his madhouse record going forward. There is talent here; after all, I did put them in the playoffs heading into the season. Nonetheless, the fact that they have 2 points means that they certainly can't be put any higher than this.
8. The Wi-Fi Wolfpack
This team is technically in 4th right now, but they are only 1 point away from 9th; there just happens to be a huge congregation of teams from after the top 2. They do have an extra point over the Tigers and Sharks, but personally, I just like those rosters more. Ewin has been a big reason for the team's success, having notched big wins against players like Hellom and Mada. Void is also 3-1, but personally, I refuse to believe he will continue succeeding at this level, so I do expect some regression there. I just think this team has less talent than other rosters, and their schedule appears to be a bit harder than other teams around them as well; they have not played the top 2 teams in the tournament thus far and have already played the bottom 2 teams in these Power Rankings. They probably have the hardest schedule in the tournament. Perhaps the Classiest will already be clinched by Week 9, though, which may help their chances. The margins for these spots are tight, so for now, I will throw this team in 8th.
7. The Circus Maximus Tigers
The Tigers were on the brink of elimination in Week 4, but managed to score an upset win against the Ruiners to keep their dreams alive. They certainly would have been out of the tournament if they did not manage that feat. The team features an upgraded roster from what they started out the tournament with, as Malekith has replaced Sergio Aguero, who is 3-17 on the sheet, in BW OU. They slightly downgraded in the madhouse, but who cares about that? The team's biggest weakness thus far appears to be RBY, as Genesis7 + mozes have combined for 0 wins. They are bound to win a game eventually, but things are certainly dire on this front. The primary reason that the team is still in contention is the performance of baddummy, who is unsurprisingly proving to be the best pick of the entire auction. Who could have possibly guessed that getting him for 3k would be good? Crazy! I'm not sure if he can continue succeeding at this pace, but he already took down Roro, so perhaps, in a weaker ADV pool than past years, it is possible; he has certainly played well in the games I have seen. Kenix is also unsurprisingly proving himself to be a sheet god, and could easily be 4-0 had luck not intervened in his game against Conflict; he is certainly one of the best players on the site at this point, ngl. This team could certainly battle back, but they still have at least 1 less point than most of the teams above them, which may prove to be the difference in a tournament as tight as this.
6. The Stark Sharks
The Sharks have certainly struggled this season, but did at least manage to tie the Raiders last week to keep their hopes alive. The biggest shock so far has been TDNT's awful performance; the SS God surprisingly finds himself on the bench for Week 5. Jyt has also regressed from his SCL form, which has also been an issue. The team has shuffled many players in and out of the lineup, which usually isn't a good sign; some players should bounce back, such as Niko, while others, such as River, may be better off armchairing on Discord. Ultimately, I will bank on TDNT returning to form; if he does, this team has shown it has the capability to contend with anyone. Conflict should certainly continue winning, which should definitely help this team battle back from the hole they have put themselves in. If you think TDNT will continue to struggle, then you probably think the Sharks should be lower on these PRs, which is certainly fair. Their Week 5 clash with the Ruiners will be pivotal for their season. For now, though, I will bank on this team's talent for a little longer.
5. The Indie Scooters
The biggest surprise here is Garay being 4-0. He notably never has exceptional sheet performances, so this result has been a big surprise thus far. Personally, I think he will regress to the mean from here; the sheet doesn't lie. Perhaps this tour will be a copy of this World Cup run, though, in which case, the Scooters could certainly do some damage. This team has a lot of potential if Garay continues playing at this level; that's for sure. As expected, robjr continues being a good value pick for 3k; who could have expected that!? Felix should certainly rebound from his struggles and the team should pick up some madhouse wins eventually. As usual, though, spending 10k on the madhouse is never a good idea; I am glad they are being punished for it. Anyway, I will a.so believe in hellom to do well the rest of the year. If you think Garay is going to continue being a world-beater, then you could easily argue that this is a top 3 team heading into Week 5. I will remain a bit skeptical, though.
4. The Dragonspiral Tyrants
The Tyrants got a huge win last week to put them back in a solid position. The main reason they are this high, though, is that their team is receiving a big boost with the return of Luthier in Week 5. He should definitely help shore up the lineup and give them a good shot to make a run. This is important, since Luigi and spies both got absolutely annihilated this season; Luispeiko did manage to win in RBY last week, at least. Perhaps the biggest surprise so far has been the performance of Poek, who has managed to win 3 games in 4 weeks. If he can keep this up, the Tyrants could certainly make some noise. BKC has also been solid so far, although I will refuse to completely believe in him for now; luckily, Luthier's return should help alleviate some of the issues caused by BKC's predicted regression. SoulWind should also do a bit better throughout the season, although him being 2-2 is not entirely surprising. The Tyrants play the bottom 2 teams in the Power Rankings in the next 2 weeks; if they can capitalize on those matchups, they should be able to make the playoffs yet again.
3. The Team Raiders
If you told me that Michael + Skype would be 3-5 heading into Week 5, I certainly would not have picked the Raiders to make the playoffs. However, the team has still managed to amass 4 points, which makes me confident in them heading into the remainder of the campaign. Gama has been the main carry of the team, and he has had amazing sheet performances before, so perhaps this is the start of a glorious outing. I expect Monai to regress a bit, but Skype and Michael should be able to dominate from here on out; I will continue to believe in them. The team has gotten decent performances from some of their value pieces, which is not entirely surprising. The main argument against them is that they have to play the Classiest and the Ruiners in the next 2 weeks; however, their last 3 weeks certainly appear to be more farmable. I think this team should be able to make it.
2. The Alpha Ruiners
Every year, I go against the Ruiners, and every year, this franchise manages to exceed my expectations. What a meme. Anyway, I still don't believe in this team as much as other people, but if you have 6 points through 3 weeks, you probably have to be this high. I think some of their players should regress; I would be rather surprised if watashi put up a dominant SPL showing this late into his Pokemon career, for example, but players like oldspicemike and Punny may just continue winning. CrisPBacon has surprised me, and Fog may just be back on his sheet farming arc. The team also finally decided to bench erz, who is 2-20 in the past 4 years, so they even managed to improve the roster heading into Week 5. This is unfortunate, since Sweepage could use some company. Anyway, the team is certainly better than I originally thought; I will still remain a bit skeptical, but they should make the playoffs, at the very least. It would take a pretty historic collapse not to, especially since the play the Cryonicles in Week 9, who will almost certainly be eliminated by then.
1. The Congregation of the Classiest
Well, this is the main thing I got right this SPL. The Classiest are the best team. As usual, spending 3k on the madhouse works. Shocking guys! The main surprise here has been the performance of the team's cheap SV core; they have really performed, which has given me even more hope in the team. If they bought Kenix instead of BIHI, I would say this was the best team by a mile, honestly. BIHI should improve from here, though, and in the playoffs, he should be a force to be reckoned with in tiebreaks. This should help counteract Groudon's inevitable regression. There is not that much to say here; this team should easily cruise into the playoffs and they have some extremely capable players to play tiebreaks with. They are certainly the favorite to win SPL at this juncture.
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the UNBIASED MIDSEASON POWER RANKINGS!
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Decided to use the Prediction recap posts (thank you Maia) to find the number or correctly predicted matchups per tier and week. This is a different metric than the one used in the recap post in the sense that, for a given tier and week, the % predicted correctly of the winners are summed, then divided by the number of games.
To see how this differs from the metric used in the recap post: if the prediction percentage of the winners of ADV OU in a given week is 60%, 65%, 70%, 75% and 80%, players will collectively have guessed (60+65+70+75+80)/5 = 70% correctly, wheras the recap metric results in 100%.
Best and worst guesses in a given week highlighted:
Cumulative over the first 5 weeks:
Total of all tiers and weeks: 51.63%.
Probably interesting to compare to the cumulative stats for week 5 in the recap post,
SM OU, ADV OU, GSC OU and RBY OU stand out as differing quite a bit while the other tiers are pretty close
To see how this differs from the metric used in the recap post: if the prediction percentage of the winners of ADV OU in a given week is 60%, 65%, 70%, 75% and 80%, players will collectively have guessed (60+65+70+75+80)/5 = 70% correctly, wheras the recap metric results in 100%.
Best and worst guesses in a given week highlighted:
Cumulative over the first 5 weeks:
Total of all tiers and weeks: 51.63%.
Probably interesting to compare to the cumulative stats for week 5 in the recap post,
SM OU, ADV OU, GSC OU and RBY OU stand out as differing quite a bit while the other tiers are pretty close