Popcorn Mafia 4 - Cycle 5 Deadline August 27 at 10PM EDT

Here is my last readslist and explanation since there is a 14/17 chance that I die right now.

If Im wrong, Im wrong and Im sorry! I had to step away cause I didnt want to be influenced by people.

I spent a lot of time during the last decision phase thinking about who might be selected. I thought Tommy and AirC were plausible choices because they are somewhat townread and could probably be persuaded to shoot in a bad direction. No offense, I think Tommy would admit that hes not the one actively leading the town in terms of reads atm. So it was mildly surprising to me that I was chosen to be the gunbearer. Sure, its possible and even certain that someone thought Im a better lategame player and they wanted me out early, which is exactly what Tommy said. But there is ALWAYS a thought process that goes into these decisions. I always try (as mafia) to do due diligence when making decisions like this.

I am forced to admit that my reads from Yesterday are probably not good because otherwise it would be risky to let me just shoot through my whole pool if its correct. Of course, there is a WIFOM chance that I psych myself out and dont shoot inside my original pool. However, I think most mafia players wouldn't be so brazen to assume that I would simply play my Uno reverse card once chosen as the gunbearer.

I strongly read into the implications of me being chosen gunbearer here. I believe mafia expected me to shoot one of DBD, BD, Phoopes, Skipper, or Joey. These are all people that I expressed scummy reads on. DBD I called a "wildcard" but even if I shot BD, he might shoot DBD. So either way I think the fact I was chosen gunbearer makes this group of people more likely town.

Celever
He is a value shot who fancies himself a hero shot. I say this without any trace of humor or irony. Celever's reads on Skipper and AirC were bogus. The Miyami/Flandrs pairing was weird. I have a hard time here because I know such things he has done are within his usual meta, but he feels more agenda'd this game with his shenanigans. I called Celever an "eventual kill lol" Yesterday which is the precise thing I would try to remove someone from the game for as scum-Celever. Tommy also seems to have an "eventually" opinion on Celever and I kind of feel like Im mindmelding a bit with Tommy re Celever but Im more at the point where "eventually" is now. Also Celever has a lot of interesting interactions with Miyami, Texas, Skipper, AirC, and Realiti. So ya this shot is absolutely value town. Texas/Celever could EASILY be S/S btw since they both know that sort of interaction tend to get townread. I also just get the general vibe that he is trying to outplay me with his string of posts today. Why is bro saying hes gonna be AFK, then hes in dropping lots of posts? Probable Scum.

Des
On paper I would say Des is also a person who benefits from making me the gunbearer. I started out hard towning Des but turned around to some extent. It could certainly be argued that mafia-Des would want to make me the gunbearer so that I'd cease forcing her to be accountable for reads. However, Des doesn't seem terribly bothered by how Ive been talking to her and I dont think shes on a bluff. I see it as more likely that a mafia team without Des would pick me to be gunbearer because I could feasibly shoot Des for hero and/or value at this point. And truthfully Ive been on a mission to townclear Des this game so I think this is one of the reads I was probably right about all along. Town.

Evie
Seems earnest enough. I do disagree with a lot of Evie's reads unfortunately. Evie and Miyami both interacted with ShyPebble early in the game after ShyPebble suggested shooting Airc. So I think Evie/Miyami are probably unpaired. I also thought Evie's reaction felt better than Miyami's. Its easy to misread skilled scum who play aggressively. Evie is probably misreading such scum players right now! Town(?)

Miyami
I think mafia actually didn't want Flandrs shot today, but its because Miyami is mafia. If Flandrs is shot, its not great if he just turns around and shoots Miyami immediately and everything about his play suggested that he might do just that. Im choosing to shoot Miyami partly because I think a mafia flip here conftowns Flandrs. I apologize to everyone cause I know this isn't a popular kill target right now. But in many ways I see Miyami guilty of what I thought phoopes was guilty of. I pump-faked interest in shooting Des today and Miyami kind of took that bait a little bit. Wanting to shoot BD/Des feels like mislynch peddling from where I stand. If you are town I strongly encourage you to shoot in AirC/Pebble/Realiti/Celever.

Tommy
When my expectations about AirC/Tommy being the gunbearer didn't materialize, I considered a hero shot on Tommy. He is, after all, the type of mafia player would take a big chance on getting me out, possibly even if my reads were good. But I really don't see Tommy as maf here. I think maybe the reason he wouldn't be chosen is if Flandrs/Miyami has mafia in it because in either case Tommy gunbearer would result in Flandrs -> Miyami shots. Town.

Fairy
Would fairy choose me to be a gunbearer? I feel like I was kind of trending upwards on Fairy as the game went on in a couple ways and maybe mafia caught onto that. That makes me town Fairy here because she could be a plausible paranoia shot for me. I like that Fairy is pushing a Realiti scum meta case. It isnt my personal experience with Realiti but I get the sense that Fairy does believe the case. Also I can kind of see Miyami pocketing Fairy to a certain extent. Town.

Texas
Has chosen to ignore a couple of jabs that I made. at him. The aggression, quick replies, and singlemindedness is usually a town thing. Definite partner equity with Celever and possibly even Realiti. Hard to read him, but I think he has been fairly honest with all of his posts. The thing is I do think he is someone who would potentially choose to make me gunbearer now since I clearly expressed some concerns about him while calling him town. Scum??

ShyPebble / AirC
I'll talk about these two together because they are kind of the lurkcore this game. I think Miyami has similar vibes but I also think Miyami has more reasons to be considered scummy than these two. I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these is mafia. Im gonna use the E word again and say we should eventually shoot one. I townlean Pebble for vibes. I think AirC is the maf here if I had to pick one. Could be both even I suppose.

Realiti
I could be off base, but after recalibrating due to becoming the gunbearer, I think Realiti could be maf here. He knows that I would consider him a hero shot at this point (and I do). Feels brazen. Feels like he's leading. But leading whom exactly? Could be full on schizo read from me but I could see Realiti / Texas / Cele being a team here. They managed to extract townread equity from the Texas/Cele conversation then move on to Skipper/Flandrs. And this group of three would know that I probably never hero shoot Texas / Realiti at min, though I think if this is the team, they miscalc'd how I see Celever. Either way, could be scum with Celever or Texas or possibly both.

Pulsar
Townie off gut. Unsure.

Skipper / Joey / Phoopes / DBD / Bluedoom
Couldnt possibly be more than 2 mafia in here ever for any reason. I'd say its most likely either 0 or 1 mafia in this group.
 
Shoot: Miyami

good luck town

reverse.png
 
AngryPidgeon said:
Here is my last readslist and explanation since there is a 14/17 chance that I die right now.

If Im wrong, Im wrong and Im sorry! I had to step away cause I didnt want to be influenced by people.

I spent a lot of time during the last decision phase thinking about who might be selected. I thought Tommy and AirC were plausible choices because they are somewhat townread and could probably be persuaded to shoot in a bad direction. No offense, I think Tommy would admit that hes not the one actively leading the town in terms of reads atm. So it was mildly surprising to me that I was chosen to be the gunbearer. Sure, its possible and even certain that someone thought Im a better lategame player and they wanted me out early, which is exactly what Tommy said. But there is ALWAYS a thought process that goes into these decisions. I always try (as mafia) to do due diligence when making decisions like this.

I am forced to admit that my reads from Yesterday are probably not good because otherwise it would be risky to let me just shoot through my whole pool if its correct. Of course, there is a WIFOM chance that I psych myself out and dont shoot inside my original pool. However, I think most mafia players wouldn't be so brazen to assume that I would simply play my Uno reverse card once chosen as the gunbearer.

I strongly read into the implications of me being chosen gunbearer here. I believe mafia expected me to shoot one of DBD, BD, Phoopes, Skipper, or Joey. These are all people that I expressed scummy reads on. DBD I called a "wildcard" but even if I shot BD, he might shoot DBD. So either way I think the fact I was chosen gunbearer makes this group of people more likely town.

Celever
He is a value shot who fancies himself a hero shot. I say this without any trace of humor or irony. Celever's reads on Skipper and AirC were bogus. The Miyami/Flandrs pairing was weird. I have a hard time here because I know such things he has done are within his usual meta, but he feels more agenda'd this game with his shenanigans. I called Celever an "eventual kill lol" Yesterday which is the precise thing I would try to remove someone from the game for as scum-Celever. Tommy also seems to have an "eventually" opinion on Celever and I kind of feel like Im mindmelding a bit with Tommy re Celever but Im more at the point where "eventually" is now. Also Celever has a lot of interesting interactions with Miyami, Texas, Skipper, AirC, and Realiti. So ya this shot is absolutely value town. Texas/Celever could EASILY be S/S btw since they both know that sort of interaction tend to get townread. I also just get the general vibe that he is trying to outplay me with his string of posts today. Why is bro saying hes gonna be AFK, then hes in dropping lots of posts? Probable Scum.

Des
On paper I would say Des is also a person who benefits from making me the gunbearer. I started out hard towning Des but turned around to some extent. It could certainly be argued that mafia-Des would want to make me the gunbearer so that I'd cease forcing her to be accountable for reads. However, Des doesn't seem terribly bothered by how Ive been talking to her and I dont think shes on a bluff. I see it as more likely that a mafia team without Des would pick me to be gunbearer because I could feasibly shoot Des for hero and/or value at this point. And truthfully Ive been on a mission to townclear Des this game so I think this is one of the reads I was probably right about all along. Town.

Evie
Seems earnest enough. I do disagree with a lot of Evie's reads unfortunately. Evie and Miyami both interacted with ShyPebble early in the game after ShyPebble suggested shooting Airc. So I think Evie/Miyami are probably unpaired. I also thought Evie's reaction felt better than Miyami's. Its easy to misread skilled scum who play aggressively. Evie is probably misreading such scum players right now! Town(?)

Miyami
I think mafia actually didn't want Flandrs shot today, but its because Miyami is mafia. If Flandrs is shot, its not great if he just turns around and shoots Miyami immediately and everything about his play suggested that he might do just that. Im choosing to shoot Miyami partly because I think a mafia flip here conftowns Flandrs. I apologize to everyone cause I know this isn't a popular kill target right now. But in many ways I see Miyami guilty of what I thought phoopes was guilty of. I pump-faked interest in shooting Des today and Miyami kind of took that bait a little bit. Wanting to shoot BD/Des feels like mislynch peddling from where I stand. If you are town I strongly encourage you to shoot in AirC/Pebble/Realiti/Celever.

Tommy
When my expectations about AirC/Tommy being the gunbearer didn't materialize, I considered a hero shot on Tommy. He is, after all, the type of mafia player would take a big chance on getting me out, possibly even if my reads were good. But I really don't see Tommy as maf here. I think maybe the reason he wouldn't be chosen is if Flandrs/Miyami has mafia in it because in either case Tommy gunbearer would result in Flandrs -> Miyami shots. Town.

Fairy
Would fairy choose me to be a gunbearer? I feel like I was kind of trending upwards on Fairy as the game went on in a couple ways and maybe mafia caught onto that. That makes me town Fairy here because she could be a plausible paranoia shot for me. I like that Fairy is pushing a Realiti scum meta case. It isnt my personal experience with Realiti but I get the sense that Fairy does believe the case. Also I can kind of see Miyami pocketing Fairy to a certain extent. Town.

Texas
Has chosen to ignore a couple of jabs that I made. at him. The aggression, quick replies, and singlemindedness is usually a town thing. Definite partner equity with Celever and possibly even Realiti. Hard to read him, but I think he has been fairly honest with all of his posts. The thing is I do think he is someone who would potentially choose to make me gunbearer now since I clearly expressed some concerns about him while calling him town. Scum??

ShyPebble / AirC
I'll talk about these two together because they are kind of the lurkcore this game. I think Miyami has similar vibes but I also think Miyami has more reasons to be considered scummy than these two. I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these is mafia. Im gonna use the E word again and say we should eventually shoot one. I townlean Pebble for vibes. I think AirC is the maf here if I had to pick one. Could be both even I suppose.

Realiti
I could be off base, but after recalibrating due to becoming the gunbearer, I think Realiti could be maf here. He knows that I would consider him a hero shot at this point (and I do). Feels brazen. Feels like he's leading. But leading whom exactly? Could be full on schizo read from me but I could see Realiti / Texas / Cele being a team here. They managed to extract townread equity from the Texas/Cele conversation then move on to Skipper/Flandrs. And this group of three would know that I probably never hero shoot Texas / Realiti at min, though I think if this is the team, they miscalc'd how I see Celever. Either way, could be scum with Celever or Texas or possibly both.

Pulsar
Townie off gut. Unsure.

Skipper / Joey / Phoopes / DBD / Bluedoom
Couldnt possibly be more than 2 mafia in here ever for any reason. I'd say its most likely either 0 or 1 mafia in this group.
Click to expand...
you forgot flanders
 
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