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Popcorn Mafia 4 - Game Over, Village Wins

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^ this is a town to scum spectrum but equally I acc think it's fairly probable top is just town, and then there's 1 from other 4 groups (2 from one)

scum can quite freely spread their macro positioning out so something like joey, DBD, Pebble, AP, phoopes scumteam like sure this could be the world we're living in why not
wdyt of something like this being true Tommy
 
finished my reread

town

airc (clueless day 1, no agenda, pushed by scum - giving me strong "new at mafia and has bad reads as a result but is giving a genuine attempt")

tommy (the only person who actually gives a fuck about the game not stalling to try and get people to play, i think he's town and if not so be it in a game with so much inactivity - that said I'm finding a noticable lack of reads in the posts Tommy please rectify this)


middle

a fairy (I keep wanting to town read them but my gut is refusing to believe it)

phoopes (tonally consistent, I believe they're town, but there isn't enough evidence to override the back of the mind paranoia that their game would resemble a new player scum game, they really haven't felt like they're trying to push the game state forward)

pebble (good solving, good response post to clouds flip - umprompted TR on conf!town miyami and conf!town flanders, on interactions i believe their town, on their own merits something isn't clicking for me in their analysis - noting that realiti had them as a top scum read, also noting that I dropped them four slots progressively as I was working through my reads)

des (clouds shaded them. thats their entire content.)


unclear - both these players I can't get coherent readings from, both have tonally town indicators but posts I find somewhat scum motivated, but neither with enough content to determine if they actually are or are just bad town reads

Evie (1073 is a good post)
joey (1045 is such a wierd thing to say as any alignment)



shot pool

pulsar (likely T/S with celever)

celever (too many scum indicators to count with a handful of town, skipper literally only interacting with celever is a massive red flag when they defended each other; if I'm wrong and he's town I don't think he can ever actually get cleared and his flip strongly influences the other two in this pool)

DBD (i do not believe their content generation is genuine, throughout the thread i keep getting the feeling of someone doing what they know they should be doing without feeling true conviction behind it; mind meld with some similar feelings from AP and miyami - extreme bussing of celever if paired; i really do not like their focus on the airc/pebble supposed interaction that i dont think exists, feels like they want to push a double misfire; reminds me a lot of my middle era scum games where I wouldn't contribute to the thread on a live basis but I'd post a lot of retroactives to give myself time to stay internally consistent - if scum, leaning heavily into bussing and end game win equity; if town - good reads all game)



disjointed observations

celever DBD interaction page 2
celever very early game self-conscious of SRs
a fairy post 61 reading authentic self-assessment of scum gunbearer choice
skipper celever interaction page 3, continued page 4, still only talking to celever page 6, STILL only talking about him ay page 7 - very weird celever/dbd/skipper page 3 interaction
phoopes tonally town
DBD post 72 very defensive of inactives and unusually concerned about the possibility of an early game misfire
airc completely aimless day 1
clouds slightly shading des
pulsar/celever t/s

lots of DBD/celever distancing if paired - extreme distancing

evie/joey is not s/s (i dont remember why i wrote this, i think it was a evie post about joey that seemed too pointed to be scum bussing)




I want to shoot in the following order:

DBD > Celever > pulsar > joey > des > pebble > evie > phooped > a fairy > tommy > airc

in theory shot order is good but back end of a long shot order like this in practice doesnt actually matter, its the start that counts, could be two mafia in first two shots but likely its 2/4? I think

if texas is mafia then celever dbd are just town i think
 
wdyt of something like this being true Tommy

celevers read? yeah i mean distancing definitely happened this game thats for sure, especially from the deep wolf but its like the question of to what extent

there definitely 1-2 wolves who were happy to push their afk partners imo but idk if that means they are going to be pushing the active ones, though its possible
 
like if theres 2-3 inactive players on your team, clouds one of the best in the game is first to die d1

do you distance, yes of course, do you as one of the active players try shoot one of the precious few other players? less likely

i do think theres probably one mafia in texas/celever and the game will come down to if we can get that right at this point, they both have reasons to be either town or mafia and who the rest of the team is like depends on which of them is mafia

usually i hate town/mafia reads but it feels like theres no world they are both town or mafia at this point but i am very aware that im usually the first guy to not condone this type of read

if we miss today, whoever gets the gun next must shoot mafia so i am slightly worried about who has it but i am also like pretty confident pebble is mafia now
 
partial reads

Miyami - gunbearer
----------------------
should not be shot today
Texas - I don't see Texas's posting coming from a scum perspective. Unless Texas/Celever is S/S (which I do not believe to be the world we live in), his posting is fairly authentic and he's been a good solver. I don't see posts like #427 coming from a scum perspective

Tommy - I've come around to this slot and Tommy's posting has been generally good. Going against things like my Cel scumread and pushing his original viewpoints in a game where there haven't been much so far is making me believe he is town. We'd have to be completely off the mark to shoot here

bluedoom - I am seeing his D2 attitude as simply uninterested town after the HyHy self-kill. Another person who's been pushing discussion topics

Evie - Not as solvy as Texas, but their posting has generally been good and I don't see stuff like #846 coming from scum. Another one where I'd like to see post more, but I think they've earned enough leeway to evade the shot today

potential shot targets
Des - I can't say I agree with AP here, Des's posting feels coached (the scumread on Flandrs was consensus + also poorly backed up, I could definitely see this from scum Des trying to deflect from AP's pressure)

skipper - my guy, you need to post more. the posts he has are okay, can't say I agree with #279 but stuff like #388 is somewhat of a read? i don't think that sort of read is coached, but that's basically all skipper has so I'm fine with shooting him and hopefully seeing if he picks up in activity

ShyPebble/AirC - at some point we have to sort these two, and it can't hurt to solve them earlier than later as Tommy said


will post part 2 soon once i finish a piece of work
 
my spidey senses for some reason are telling me evie is potential deepwolf btw but also i dont want to go there yet but just pushing that out into the world i need to like go back and review her because its complete vibes read and maybe im just fanfictioning myself
 
Tommy
Texas
Celever
---
realiti
AP
bluedoom
Miyami

phoopes
---
DBD
des
Pebble
AirC
---
skipper
pulsar
---
a fairy
flandrs

joey

feel free to ask for any reasonings, it is pretty funny that tommy texas and celever are all my top townreads but i think theyve all been invested in contributing to the games progress and scumhunting.
 
this is a phase we should slow down and discuss AirC btw so please dont shoot quick i would like to talk to people since if we miss today we are also essentially choosing who can win or lose the game for town tomorrow
 
this is a phase we should slow down and discuss AirC btw so please dont shoot quick i would like to talk to people since if we miss today we are also essentially choosing who can win or lose the game for town tomorrow
i feel like this could be coming from a tommy/dbd scumteam who knows that airc is gonna tunnel dbd, but also it is a good idea to slow down and discuss so im a bit conflicted

i think whether its from a scum or town POV might be down to dbds alignment; if dbd is town then scum!tommy just lets airc shoot dbd, if dbd is scum then its either a scumbuddy trying to control the shot or just tommy being pro-town

through that logic tommy is actually probtown then
 
my spidey senses for some reason are telling me evie is potential deepwolf btw but also i dont want to go there yet but just pushing that out into the world i need to like go back and review her because its complete vibes read and maybe im just fanfictioning myself
i could see this being a possibility if celever flips wolf, but i would hold off on any tinfoil hats before we flip celever
 
i feel like this could be coming from a tommy/dbd scumteam who knows that airc is gonna tunnel dbd, but also it is a good idea to slow down and discuss so im a bit conflicted

i think whether its from a scum or town POV might be down to dbds alignment; if dbd is town then scum!tommy just lets airc shoot dbd, if dbd is scum then its either a scumbuddy trying to control the shot or just tommy being pro-town

through that logic tommy is actually probtown then

Well I assumed airc was considering in pebble/dbd/phoopes right those were his top scumreads

I think pebble is most likely mafia out of that group but I would rather and have the gun if it’s the last shot of the game over a first time player and we happened to miss ngl
 
Tommy what are your thoughts on the readslists that you posted btw

Assuming you mean yours, I think the readlist was pretty like rand with the mafia spread throughout so I don’t think it really told me much but I just posted it since I already done it in case others are interested

But yeah it’s not like heavily weighted either way and in fact the most noteworthy thing is how unweighted it is either way to me so it’s like either mafia who plays it by like super safe average risk amount or town who’s been like not super accurate but kind of like…average

Actually something else I noticed is your top 6 townreads were the 6 most experienced players in the game so it was definitely biased towards like game competency somewhat and not alignment as much (whatever your alignment is) but that’s not unusual really, you have a lot of the people who know how to frame themselves well at the top of your readlist
 
There’s the possibility you systematically pocketed us all too tbf, I think we have townread you and I’m not considering you as a shot today but as I said before I am considering you in deepwolf options for later

I think you said before you are playing your their game and I think like something j will say is you post like you’ve been playing longer than that, I think you would post well as either alignment Evie

Though you have seemed towny so I’m trying to not just be a tinfoil merchant either
 
Assuming you mean yours, I think the readlist was pretty like rand with the mafia spread throughout so I don’t think it really told me much but I just posted it since I already done it in case others are interested
also interested on your thoughts on the other readslists you posted - i feel like theres not a whole lot that can be discerned because of how spread out mafia can play but you mustve posted them for a reason so im curious as to what you think of them
 
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