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NOC Tracker Jailer Follower - Game Thread - Day 5!

oh great now I gotta defend myself from being paired with DBD :sob:

I think you’re totally misreading the situation here. des and DBD voted for each other. If they were both scum, that would be two of the three scum voting for each other on day one, which is the day with the least information AND in this situation was pretty dead by Smogon mafia standards. I think this is SO unlikely. If you vote for town on day one, you have such an easy defense of “oh it was day one, and in this case it was really inactive so I didn’t have a lot to work with.” This is actually a really good defense for this game specifically IMO because it’s just true. So 2/3rds of the scum team voting for each other just makes zero sense to me in this game.

Also consider that a tied vote means a no lynch in this game. If I’m scum DBD it’s very possible that I would not vote for des, but that I would vote for Neon or me (phoopes) or no-vote to create a four-way tie in votes and get a no lynch for the day. This is a hella risky strategy if someone comes in at the 11th hour to break the four way tie, BUT again, in a very inactive day one it’s more likely. Also the fact that no one mentioned this yet as far as I can remember so it probably wasn’t on a ton of people’s radars.

All this is to say that I don’t see a des/DBD pairing as very likely at all. I think I had more to say but I am currently getting interrupted so I’ll be back to the thread in a few minutes
 
Ah I remembered the “more” I had to say about the tie possibility. With it being a four way tie there’s more blame to spread around, meaning that I think the tie vote scenario would be more likely in this day one specifically
 
phoopes said:
Celever could you actually explain your last post in that string because I might be dense.

Say we had masons in this game (setup one). If both claim day one with no counterclaims, great, we have two confirmed town that we don’t vote… but if I were on the mafia side wouldn’t mind. Because two confirmed masons claiming means that mafia have two less targets in the pool to get jailkeeper. Sure on the other hand that’s two less targets to mislynch, but yeah I don’t see how it’s optimal for scum to kill them first when I think if I were in their shoes I’d rather find the jailkeeper.

Doesn’t matter since we’re not in setup 1 but I’d like to hear why anyway
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you can make the argument and you actually do have to PR hunt outside because otherwise youre 50/50ing with the JK over kills but

if masons out D1 the numbers go from 3-10 to 3-8 essentially, because the PoE discludes the masons

this makes it likelier for scum to be randvoted (it's not that deep on D1 itself, but this becomes much stronger the more town die) especially with the votes on town being x+2

a D1 misvote + scum kill on randtown makes D2 3-6 instead of 3-8, and crucially D3 3-4 instead of 3-6 giving scum essentially an early MYLO gamestate while town are sitting pretty -- if they get it wrong they get to do proper MYLO next day while scum have gone through 2 of them where they really have to try and unite as a faction on the vote

it basically just removes a lot of scum's margin for error and gives town a lot extra margin for error which is obviously great for town. the cost of the JK being slightly likelier to hit at night in no way outweighs the benefits
 
phoopes said:
oh great now I gotta defend myself from being paired with DBD :sob:

I think you’re totally misreading the situation here. des and DBD voted for each other. If they were both scum, that would be two of the three scum voting for each other on day one, which is the day with the least information AND in this situation was pretty dead by Smogon mafia standards. I think this is SO unlikely. If you vote for town on day one, you have such an easy defense of “oh it was day one, and in this case it was really inactive so I didn’t have a lot to work with.” This is actually a really good defense for this game specifically IMO because it’s just true. So 2/3rds of the scum team voting for each other just makes zero sense to me in this game.

Also consider that a tied vote means a no lynch in this game. If I’m scum DBD it’s very possible that I would not vote for des, but that I would vote for Neon or me (phoopes) or no-vote to create a four-way tie in votes and get a no lynch for the day. This is a hella risky strategy if someone comes in at the 11th hour to break the four way tie, BUT again, in a very inactive day one it’s more likely. Also the fact that no one mentioned this yet as far as I can remember so it probably wasn’t on a ton of people’s radars.

All this is to say that I don’t see a des/DBD pairing as very likely at all. I think I had more to say but I am currently getting interrupted so I’ll be back to the thread in a few minutes
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everything about the tie vote is true but yeah, as no one mentioned it in-thread the likeliest thing is that no one really checked (especially as it seems like no one checked when deadline was either lol) so I don't think it factored into decision making. I'd say different if DBD said "I'm voting des because a tie vote would be a no vote and that's bad" but he didn't, and when the speculation here is that scum DBD wouldn't do it bc he wants to get towncred for not tie voting... well scum DBD would get that towncred by saying it out loud and he didn't do that

des voting for DBD isn't smth I'd noticed and gives me more pause for thought only because idk how easy it would be to get des in on that plan. otoh would des be a busser? lowk I could see it. there's a world for sure where DBD got voted by scumbud des without it being planned and retaliated.

DBD has done big gambits before as scum IIRC. if he hasn't I have a heavy impression that he would so he's said it somewhere. that's why this kind of rationale of "oh it wouldn't be the obvious / optimal gameplay" doesn't really factor for me here bc DBD doesn't play with the most obvious/optimal gameplay

and none of this is a counter-argument to the content of his posts pre-flipping players anyway, which is why I actually scumread him. I don't scumread him because of the gambit, I scumread him because he already knew what would happen after the gambit succeeded and started posting like it had happened already
 
oh but tbc phoopes I don't scumread you aside from the DBD connection. if we vote DBD today and he's scum I am tunnelling you tomorrow sadly, we would in this situation have so many misvotes that it would make no sense not to kill you at some point due to DBD's pre-flipping content so the optimal thing would be to handle it first

otherwise though I have no interest in voting you, and particularly no interest in voting you before DBD
 
but yeah, I was going to vote des anyways, not because of policy but because she wasnt acting like her usual self. You can check how she usually gets desperate if she is accused of mafia as town, usually trying to explain to the best of her abilities, but on this one I feel like she just gave up? And didnt make many points, this would have been a really good look on me 2 days ago but now its kinda meaningless ngl
 
Peum said:
but yeah, I was going to vote des anyways, not because of policy but because she wasnt acting like her usual self. You can check how she usually gets desperate if she is accused of mafia as town, usually trying to explain to the best of her abilities, but on this one I feel like she just gave up? And didnt make many points, this would have been a really good look on me 2 days ago but now its kinda meaningless ngl
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it would've been a bad look bc the chance of there being one scum on that wagon is like 80%+ imo x3
 
another thing that has to be dissected based on DBD's posts is he never gave a reason for voting des, the most rationale he gave was "the wagon is townier than the wagon on pulsar", so it would mean he'd have to legit townread both Evie and Miyami
 
Celever said:
another thing that has to be dissected based on DBD's posts is he never gave a reason for voting des, the most rationale he gave was "the wagon is townier than the wagon on pulsar", so it would mean he'd have to legit townread both Evie and Miyami
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bc it's a false dichotomy and if he didn't legit townread both Evie and Miyami he'd have just voted someone else
 
Evie said:
im liking cel’s and miyamis slot, would like to know why dbd doesn’t like cel (besides the racism)
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Dead by Daylight said:
claiming des vote to be bad into laying out the reasons ppl want a des policy is a weird sequence of posting imo
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Celever said:
I dunno what you’re referring to I don’t remember laying out the reasons people want a des policy

It wouldn’t have been bad if I did bc mafia is about evaluating both sides of a disagreement and discerning which one’s likelier to be correct but I don’t think it happened lol
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DBD never responded to this btw, just called my posts "bad"
 
I'll make a reads post later rn im kinda busy, but this was just to let you guys know that im still alive
Peum said:
but yeah, I was going to vote des anyways, not because of policy but because she wasnt acting like her usual self. You can check how she usually gets desperate if she is accused of mafia as town, usually trying to explain to the best of her abilities, but on this one I feel like she just gave up? And didnt make many points, this would have been a really good look on me 2 days ago but now its kinda meaningless ngl
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the only time he actually tried to provide justification it was unfactual (on page 5 of the thread there wasn't a lot to keep track of lol) and then he never responded to the post calling it out

town!DBD has conviction and ghosting that shows 0 conviction
 
also the reason why it makes sense for scum!DBD to try and tunnel me is my early mechposts about certain roles claiming heavily imply I'm VT so they can't reasonably waste a kill on me, they have to try and get me voted out instead
 
sorry for spamming the more I think about the game the more I'm like "oh right that's also why DBD is scum"

given the number of posts in this thread, having this many reasons to scumread someone is highk absurd lol
 
Meanwhile I’m convinced you’re tunneling lol, in my mind no way des and DBD vote for each other if they’re both scum haha, that’d be an insane play to pull on day one I think. Hence why DBD is one of if not my hardest town reads
 
Celever said:
des voting for DBD isn't smth I'd noticed and gives me more pause for thought only because idk how easy it would be to get des in on that plan. otoh would des be a busser? lowk I could see it. there's a world for sure where DBD got voted by scumbud des without it being planned and retaliated.
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while it's true that des voted for DBD before DBD voted for des, I still don't see a reality where this is a scum/scum interaction

des is not bad enough at mafia to randomly vote for a teammate like this under 0 vote pressure. I'm convinced.

DBD is too good at mafia to retaliate against a teammate like this on Day 1. I'm convinced.

DBD is town. I'm convinced.
 
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