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NOC Tracker Jailer Follower - Game Thread - Day 5!

Celever correct me if I'm wrong because I only understood like a quarter of what I read about these scenarios, but is your theoretical conclusion from the scenarios (that, from Peum's POV, the answer should be voting out DBD or Miyami) based on the scenarios having equal likelihood?
 
The scenarios thing has thrown me for a loop a lot, I like Peum's approach to the game and I think it reflects on him well but I'm not convinced from the parts I understood that any of the framework for these scenarios are strong enough for us to create an info-vote from someone who is not that suspicious based off of it
 
joey said:
Celever correct me if I'm wrong because I only understood like a quarter of what I read about these scenarios, but is your theoretical conclusion from the scenarios (that, from Peum's POV, the answer should be voting out DBD or Miyami) based on the scenarios having equal likelihood?
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Yeah if the scenarios have equal likelihood you would target scenario 1 first because it can be resolved first

Once you vote out DBD and Miyami that’s it, the scenario is either proven right or wrong

Targeting scenario 2 first is not the conclusion of his post because you have to kill 3 of us to get to the same result, which takes an extra cycle. It’s straight up less efficient
 
Peum decided to approach the game from an impartial gamebot POV so that’s how I’ve interfaced with him, and it doesn’t work

He presumably did this because his scum team decided to vote me out but he couldn’t come up with a reasonable scumcase on me so he went full theory instead, but the theory doesn’t even lead to the conclusion he drew if ygm
 
Celever said:
Yeah if the scenarios have equal likelihood you would target scenario 1 first because it can be resolved first

Once you vote out DBD and Miyami that’s it, the scenario is either proven right or wrong

Targeting scenario 2 first is not the conclusion of his post because you have to kill 3 of us to get to the same result, which takes an extra cycle. It’s straight up less efficient
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Okay and Peum can you clarify to me whether you're treating the scenarios as 3 equally likely scenarios to draw your conclusion (vote Celever)

Not asking whether you believe they are equally likely, but whether your logic-driven conclusion is based off of that
 
I really hate Celever trying to steal Peum’s idea to subtly push both me and Miyami while trying to shade his slot as well

Assuming every scenario is an equal possibility is asinine, there are some scenarios that are far likelier than others (eg. Scenario 1 is highly unlikely while Scenario 2 is what is quite likely happened). We can easily just vote Cele and Pulsar and go from there seeing that Scenario 2 was right or wrong, no? See why the point Celever is making is terrible?

With that said, I’m still sticking to LaL policy here, and Celever hasn’t explicitly lied, so my vote is most likely staying here today
 
Peum said:
Scenario One: Planned Execution

Dead By Daylight: Dead By Daylight somehow convinced Des to make an actual play and accuse him of being mafia (let it be known, she couldnt even say her role properly when asked), I find this very unlikely, not because DBD would make this play, but because they wouldnt trust Des to do this.
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Does this sound as like I think all the scenarios have equal chance of occurring?
 
yeah Peum was very clear about thinking that Scenario 2 was the most likely

I disagree with this obviously and I think the whole thing is a charade but yeah
 
I now have 2 conflicting strong opinions which is that I think Celever's crusade against dbd looks a ton like tvt but his rebuttal to Peum's scenarios seems really bad faith

That's not even to say I agree with the scenario concept, I still don't know if I fully understand it, but I feel like I understand Celever's reduced version
 
if anyone got confused by the "So in favor of discovering the scenario instead of following my own opinion," Following my own opinion there would be voting by my own readlist (which was above), not that all scenarios have an equal chance of occurring
 
Dead by Daylight said:
I really hate Celever trying to steal Peum’s idea to subtly push both me and Miyami while trying to shade his slot as well

Assuming every scenario is an equal possibility is asinine, there are some scenarios that are far likelier than others (eg. Scenario 1 is highly unlikely while Scenario 2 is what is quite likely happened). We can easily just vote Cele and Pulsar and go from there seeing that Scenario 2 was right or wrong, no? See why the point Celever is making is terrible?

With that said, I’m still sticking to LaL policy here, and Celever hasn’t explicitly lied, so my vote is most likely staying here today
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Literally an insane reading of the situation are you good mate

I was critiquing Peum’s theory. I also pointed out that phoopes and myself are equal votes as a hole in the theory I wasn’t just talking about how he should vote you instead

Both are critiques. Peum’s own logic says he should vote you or Miyami. Sorry that you’re put out by that logic, I think Peum’s logic is faulty in the first place and that’s what I was tryna point out

I don’t care if you’re voted out or not I’m not even voting you lol
 
Peum said:
Does this sound as like I think all the scenarios have equal chance of occurring?
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So you’re voting me because it’s “in favour of discovering the scenario instead of my opinion” (#516) which you said because you think Celever is town

But you’re not voting DBD or Miyami because in your opinion that scenario is unlikelier than the scenario I’m a part of

But in your opinion I’m prob not scum

So you’re voting me to take your opinion out of it
 
Peum said:
if anyone got confused by the "So in favor of discovering the scenario instead of following my own opinion," Following my own opinion there would be voting by my own readlist (which was above), not that all scenarios have an equal chance of occurring
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But you think one scenario is likelier than the other due to your opinion mate
 
What benefit are you getting from factoring in your opinion for the scenario but then stopping thinking and not voting who you think is scum?

Which you’re still not even doing because me and phoopes are exactly equal in your breakdown of what scenarios we’re town or scum in, but you’re voting me instead of phoopes because IN YOUR OPINION it’s likelier that I’m scum than phoopes
 
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