-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
-
Congrats to the winners of the 2023 Smog Awards!
Lockdown Mafia 2: Hail To The Chief - Game Over, Mafia Wins!
- Thread starter Seven Deadly Sins
- Start date
ok here are my thoughts on the rest of the people in the game. feel free to hate on it or give your thoughts.
1. LightWolf - i think his computer died or something but tried to help when he was around. Kinda pushed the "vote inactive people" card.
2. Johann - wanted inspector to claim which is kinda suspicious. Didn't put in thoughts and just agreed with people.
4. reachzero - leading votes, maybe mafia trying to get a villy lynched? though his lynched were based on how people were behaving.
5. HD - hasn't really given any insight or thoughts but is around. also kinda band wagoned on the tyranidos
8. jermy - who??????????
9. RaRe555 - trying to help but kinda clueless. billy wanted to lynch you and now he is dead. :( maybe he was right? i don't know...
10. Class - trying to help but kinda clueless (but its his 1st mafia game so you'd expect that)
11. macle - trying to help but kinda clueless and was inactive for awhile.
12. TotalPotato - wanted inspector to claim which is kinda suspicious but is intelligent and seems to more village aligned.
15. Ace Matador - really hasn't posted much? and just followed what someone said.
16. Mekkah - suspecios he is still alive but could be getting set up or mafia thought the others were more important to kill. (also too cute to lynch)
17. Jumpluff - too cute to lynch but possibly playing the cute girl card...
18. Chris is me - (BAN ME PLEASE) and constantly trying to lynch people on little evidence like with thunda.
20. Thunda - trolling also is too cute to lynch. Maybe trolling to try to play the "thunda trolls if he is a villager" card.
also sds update the list in the op. :(
1. LightWolf - i think his computer died or something but tried to help when he was around. Kinda pushed the "vote inactive people" card.
2. Johann - wanted inspector to claim which is kinda suspicious. Didn't put in thoughts and just agreed with people.
4. reachzero - leading votes, maybe mafia trying to get a villy lynched? though his lynched were based on how people were behaving.
5. HD - hasn't really given any insight or thoughts but is around. also kinda band wagoned on the tyranidos
8. jermy - who??????????
9. RaRe555 - trying to help but kinda clueless. billy wanted to lynch you and now he is dead. :( maybe he was right? i don't know...
10. Class - trying to help but kinda clueless (but its his 1st mafia game so you'd expect that)
11. macle - trying to help but kinda clueless and was inactive for awhile.
12. TotalPotato - wanted inspector to claim which is kinda suspicious but is intelligent and seems to more village aligned.
15. Ace Matador - really hasn't posted much? and just followed what someone said.
16. Mekkah - suspecios he is still alive but could be getting set up or mafia thought the others were more important to kill. (also too cute to lynch)
17. Jumpluff - too cute to lynch but possibly playing the cute girl card...
18. Chris is me - (BAN ME PLEASE) and constantly trying to lynch people on little evidence like with thunda.
20. Thunda - trolling also is too cute to lynch. Maybe trolling to try to play the "thunda trolls if he is a villager" card.
also sds update the list in the op. :(
Erm you realise that I'm on IRC a lot? How could my computer be dead? It is just I don't like repeating what has been already said, if I have something to say which wasn't said yet I will do so, since I'm already posting though, why not?
So to answer Mekkah's question, it depends on his results, if it was me 2 or even 1 cleaned is way better than nothing at all, also inspect dying protects the president's life(if inspect dies then then the doctors live!)
I also disagree with CIM's opinion on this matter, what he says is possible yes, but it is still info and if we can assume info is fake or true then we can gain info out of that too, also in fact lynching based in suspicious behavior or idling is flawed. Any mafia can be active and not suspicious just by playing like a villager, while never players may think inactivity is a good strategy, or misunderstand some basic concepts and look suspicious. I for one doubt that we really managed to lynch more than one mafia, our lynches all targeted newer people who were pushed around for a long time and made mistakes. It seemed like many people just jumped on it seeing some sort of reasoning and wanted to end the day faster. Like that we missed out on possible real slip ups as even if a guy seems mafia lynching him without discussing other possible targets is a waste of a day(even if that lynch is mafia, some others may slip by trying to protect him).
Also SDS with so many new people playing a smaller game would have been better, being thrown in a bigger one as a new player is hard in my opinion.
tl;dr blame macle for this
We're not getting anywhere with this right now, so I'll try a different discussion-generating tactic that you may have seen earlier - post a somewhat farfetched theory!
I've had a quick re-read over the thread, and I think Mekkah's the user who's acting most suspiciously. Way back in Day 1, he and Rook were posting surprisingly similar things, specifically to do with not lynching Tenken because we had lots of time for information-gathering. Note that Rook was lynched D1 rather than Mekkah, even though Rook seemed to be a likely D2 lynch candidate - if Mekkah was village, wouldn't the mafia have fired him instead?
He's also been pretty hesitant to give any real lynch target opinions. On Day 1, he voted for jermy "to call him out". For someone whose strategy seemed to be "wait for more info, we have plenty of time after all", I'd have expected him to come up with a better lynch target based on all the discussion that had been going on. On D2, he fired Trick Room, which he did without really saying why, explaining that others had already raised the points he wanted to raise. He did something similar with Tyranidos on D3. Basically, I haven't really seen him come up with many opinions of his own.
And now, he's quite possibly trying to bait villagers into saying whether or not the inspector should claim, giving the mafia information about who's more likely to be the inspector by eliminating the ones who give an opinion on what the inspector should do. If that is a mafia plan, it's obviously not perfect since the inspector could pretend to be a board member, but it's still a pretty good one.
Based on all this, I'd like to propose that we fire Mekkah. Hopefully we can get some discussion going now.
I've had a quick re-read over the thread, and I think Mekkah's the user who's acting most suspiciously. Way back in Day 1, he and Rook were posting surprisingly similar things, specifically to do with not lynching Tenken because we had lots of time for information-gathering. Note that Rook was lynched D1 rather than Mekkah, even though Rook seemed to be a likely D2 lynch candidate - if Mekkah was village, wouldn't the mafia have fired him instead?
He's also been pretty hesitant to give any real lynch target opinions. On Day 1, he voted for jermy "to call him out". For someone whose strategy seemed to be "wait for more info, we have plenty of time after all", I'd have expected him to come up with a better lynch target based on all the discussion that had been going on. On D2, he fired Trick Room, which he did without really saying why, explaining that others had already raised the points he wanted to raise. He did something similar with Tyranidos on D3. Basically, I haven't really seen him come up with many opinions of his own.
And now, he's quite possibly trying to bait villagers into saying whether or not the inspector should claim, giving the mafia information about who's more likely to be the inspector by eliminating the ones who give an opinion on what the inspector should do. If that is a mafia plan, it's obviously not perfect since the inspector could pretend to be a board member, but it's still a pretty good one.
Based on all this, I'd like to propose that we fire Mekkah. Hopefully we can get some discussion going now.
This kind of thing can be said for lots of people in lots of games, but they rarely are true. I can think of several reasons why the mafia wouldn't kill me:
- it would incriminate me in this sense
- seeing as I'm a "big name", I'm likely to get protected by the Free Agent
And of course, by pointing this out and showing a case against me, I'm pretty sure they'll leave me alone for the rest of the game to further incriminate. I hope they don't though!
I do not like leading serious lynches without serious evidence. In NOC Mafia, there's hardly any of that, so instead I mostly use my votes to pressure people to post, and then later I follow someone else's more serious lynch if I like their reasoning. I haven't spent much time analyzing people's posts myself mostly due to laziness of my own, but I do take the time to read the posts of others who do so, such as reachzero.
Or maybe my grand plan all along was to
as well as a follow-up to the discussion about it on the previous days. Do you really think only the mafia profits from discussion like that? Do you not see benefit for the village on discussing strategy on role use?Mekkah said:
The "it would incriminate me in this sense" point could also be raised against Rook, but it didn't stop him from getting fired. And with the revision to the Free Agent role, it's risky for the Free Agent to protect anyone unless they're sure they know an excellent person to protect (i.e. the inspector). Protecting someone successfully before the inspector claimed would give us fewer days' worth of information when/if the inspector does decide to claim.
Fair enough.
I definitely see the benefits, but it was more your insistance that everyone should say something that irked me. You don't really need everyone to say something for the inspector to formulate an opinion on whether or not they should claim, and if everyone does say something, it gives the mafia a lot of likely information.
Like you said, there isn't any serious evidence at this point, but someone has to get fired. I think we've fired enough inexperienced guys who flounder under pressure for one game, and I believe we need to start taking action against other members. I think the mafia is likely to have at least one person who's at least reasonably active in the thread in order to push discussion in the direction they want it to go from time to time. As long as they have one person, they don't necessarily need any more representatives, and the rest can just sit back and avoid attention. I concede that I may be wrong, and the mafia may just be sitting back watching the village destroy itself like they did last game, but that's my personal feeling.
If anyone has any other ideas on who to fire, speak up please!
From a quick scan of the first pages, Rook was pretty much fired by askaninjask alone. I didn't get the deal with that, except that we had a lack of targets...apparently Rook somewhat contradicted himself (iirc) but he was defending me, and like I stated at the beginning, I didn't think a mafia would defend me. But of course, that doesn't work for anyone else, so nobody stopped a lynch on him.
I think you either misunderstood or missed the second revision. This is the first one, which is in line with your explanation. If I understood it well, he can only save a specific person's life once, but not twice without getting his name given away. But he could protect two different guys from death without being given away if he's pro enough.
There's no excuse for anyone not to post unless they have no time for it, and I don't see that as far removed from posting about a specific object. In addition, there was a large chance inspector is an inexperienced player, so he might have needed some help in his decision making. What is the mafia going to deduce from everyone's opinion on whether inspector should claim? Worst case is that he inspector somehow gives himself away in a post, but that's the same as if he just claimed.
Firing inexperienced people is as bad of an idea as it was back then, there's no time when you should suddenly stop doing it, especially when you have no idea on how to gauge the lynch results.
Honestly, I'm as clueless on who to fire as the next guy. I would profile the mafia as not being very outspoken people. The way I did it in the last game was me and Accent in the fray, jumpluff only posting occasionally, and GTS pretending not to care. The only really inexperienced guy in our team, Sikh, was as suspicious as any inexperienced guy we've already fired.
Not knowing the numbers is really awful, I don't think I want to play no cardflip again.
Well, it's interesting to notice that you aren't that outspoken... I disagree with the fact that the mafia are necessarily not outspoken though. Why would you want to promote a generalisation like that? I mean, consider the fact that in last game, we all behaved differently really. I'd be very surprised if all the mafia were doing the same thing this game.
I'm hesitant to recommend we should lynch Mekkah though because he's a valuable asset to the board in terms of thinking power if he is town... but yes, I must admit I've wondered why he's still alive, although he raises a good point (the mafia might want to incriminate him). Still, that's as good an excuse as a reason... It's also worth noting that Mekkah is a reasonably likely recruit due to his big name (but countering with that with his chance to be inspected due to his big name).
I want cardflip too =/ It's way too skewed against the town without cardflip, for all we know we could be gg to the mafia soon. I'd like to think that my driven lynches at least were accurate though, as I stand by that. =P
I'm hesitant to recommend we should lynch Mekkah though because he's a valuable asset to the board in terms of thinking power if he is town... but yes, I must admit I've wondered why he's still alive, although he raises a good point (the mafia might want to incriminate him). Still, that's as good an excuse as a reason... It's also worth noting that Mekkah is a reasonably likely recruit due to his big name (but countering with that with his chance to be inspected due to his big name).
So, you're saying that the inspector should claim, then, because that isn't bad? The inspector may not have any intentions to claim yet, and that post seems to be an admission you're trying to draw him out. Actually, that itself is reasonably convincing, so a tentative Fire Mekkah.
I want cardflip too =/ It's way too skewed against the town without cardflip, for all we know we could be gg to the mafia soon. I'd like to think that my driven lynches at least were accurate though, as I stand by that. =P
I mean, I don't want to be mean to Mekkah, but thus far he hasn't been that much of an asset to the village. His posts have been mainly short and substance-less. Mislynching him is like mislynching any other villager; I would totally prefer to hit mafia, but so far he hasn't been a major player in discussions.
I would like to vote Mekkah for a couple reasons:
Firstly, I trust almost all of the users who have attacked Mekkah up to this point. I feel that this is almost definitely not mafia manipulation of village votes.
Secondly, Mekkah should be contributing more with his posts than he is. As a mafioso, the goal is to make it seem as though you are contributing and being helpful to the village when you really are not.
tentative Fire Mekkah
I'll change if a better target comes up.
Whoops, I did miss the second revision to the free agent role. Thanks for pointing that out, Mekkah.
I don't really have much else to add, but I'd just like to clarify my thinking on one point Mekkah brought up:
Sorry if this is a mislynch :(
I don't really have much else to add, but I'd just like to clarify my thinking on one point Mekkah brought up:
If a lot of people give their opinions as to whether the inspector should claim, it's unlikely that they're the inspector themselves. Unless the inspector bluffed and gave an opinion anyway, the mafia could write off the people who gave an opinion on the matter as "non-inspectors". This wouldn't explicitly reveal who the inspector is, but it would narrow down the mafia's options for a night kill. If the mafia get lucky, this could be even better than having the inspector claim outright, since the free agent wouldn't be 100% sure on who to protect.
Sorry if this is a mislynch :(
No, that is not what I am saying. I was replying tojumpluff said:
I think this guy's point was that it would be easier to deduce who the inspector is if everyone gives their opinion on the matterM y counterpoint is that even if it can be worked out who inspector is due to a minor slip-up from him, it's the same as if he claimed, which is not the end of the world. Might even be desirable at this point, but who knows. Personally, I think he's dead at this point and we're screwed.
I can guarantee you mafia will be extremely quiet, or will go along with this bandwagon as much as possible. They'll love having me dead pretty much guaranteed.
Fire Mekkah
I've honestly been wondering why you're alive. And this kind of really subtle "I'm just going to bandwagon with other people unless I'm 100% sure" mentality you're promoting will kill the town if everyone adapts it. It's a very mafia-like thing to do to encourage extreme caution and relying on the evidence of others.
You can take the following as me defending Mekkah, but I just don't like false information being a base of a lynch, so I like to correct it(and this correction defends Mekkah)
First Mekkah's and Rook's first posts were not similar in any way, they were actually saying completely different things! Mekkah was for D1 lynch, Rook was against it. No similarities have shown up till Rook's one before last post of that day but that comes later. Rook as he claimed, only choose to defend him randomly, as he'd want him over any other random people on his side, Mekkah's reply to this was basically why would he lynch someone who defended him(there was a vote cast on rook at that point). I guess this cross defending could be counted as a similarity but I'm not sure how serious Mekkah was when he said that. Now to rook's one before last post, he basically suggest that Tenken could be clear as he didn't stop acting suspiciously, between others. While yes Mekkah did say that that is good point, he wasn't the only one, this led to a little talk about lynching Tenken as a stupid villager.
So I now got a question to both of you Mekkah/TotalPotato:
Dear Mekkah, when you said you wouldn't lynch Rook because he defended you how serious were you and if you were, how far would you have gone with that defense(assuming he was the only lynch there, the Tenken lynch wouldn't exsist)?
Dear TotalPotato, could you list the similarities on D1 between Mekkah's and Rook's posts, with quotes of those specific posts if possible?
EDIT(first but not the last):
While I haven't played many NOCs the ones I did always had inactive members, and voting them was one of the most simple ways of calling them out(as it seems only Mekkah had to use votes not only as ways of lynching someone). Also I really don't like people assuming that Mekkah would be killed as a Big Name, while yes he is one in SMOGON Mafia, but this is NOC which is a lot different, others too have contributed little and those who did were usually going for the same target.
Though your last point is somewhat reasonable, since inspector is most likely biased towards his inspection(basically the cleaned's posts look far more valid to the inspector, an he may refer to them like that when it doesn't seem that valid to others) he could easily slip without realising, also to add a possible point of my own, the defending of each other could have been a reason to kill rook to make Mekkah seem somewhat clean. Now this two(yes my own too) have one problem, it is completely WIFOM(as much I don't like using this word it describes this the best) and that is far from enough to lynch Mekkah right now.
EDIT(told you):
I don't see how a defense would have saved him from a night kill, was that just a mistake or do you think if you had defended him more he wouldn't have died?
I hope you do realise that this will hardly save you, whether or not you are one. We can't know how many have died up till now, nor will the alive ones counter claim, ergo you can't prove it. Though I think you are intelligent enough to know that, but still it can't be said for sure which possibility is true. Though if you do get lynched this is a good warning to assume that at least one is possibly down.
Well, as you might have noticed I didn't defend him enough to save him, if that's any indication. I wouldn't bet my life on him not being mafia, I just found it more likely he wasn't...I can't see a beginning player covering someone for no reason. Maybe he was the inspector.
Anyway, there's too many voting pressure on me right now to save myself with normal arguments alone before deadline. So I'd like to declare that I'm a Corporate Spin Doctor and that lynching me is a very bad idea. tyvm
I think that's a little premature of you. 3 or 4 votes of 20 is too much pressure to wait out claiming? I mean, people change their mind in this game, so I'm not buying the "I'm about to die" defense here.
It was my understanding that we've still got >24 hours left. I guess not. :/
Way to generate discussion guys.
Oh dear, trying to quote all of Mekkah's posts has been an exercise in tl;dr, so I'll just give you the greatly abridged version.
Mekkah has voiced suspicious concerning (but not voted for): Johann (#285)
Mekkah has bold voted to "call out": Jumpluff (#112), jermy (#132)
Mekkah has bold voted as his "final answer": Trick Room (#220), Tyranidos (#289)
Mekkah has publicly defended: Rook (#128), Tenken (#135), thunda (#245),
Ideas that Mekkah believes/supports: "Mafia do not vote for their own" (#253), "Inspector should claim if they have at least one confirmed mafia" (#316), "if someone claims, we should lynch who they say to, then see if the night kill fails" (#321), "doesn't like leading lynches without serious evidence, is too lazy to look for him himself, but follows good reasoning when he sees it" (#335), "there's no excuse for anyone not to post unless they don't have time fore it" (#337), "firing inexperienced people is a bad idea, but there is no reason to treat the situation differently now than early in the game, considering that cardflip is off" (#337)
As a special note, Mekkah has claimed Corporate Spin Doctor.
I personally find it very notable that Mekkah voted for Trick Room and Tyranidos, and defended Rook. Considering that Mekkah's behavior is pretty coherent, I find it moderately unlikely that he is mafia. If he is mafia, it is highly probable that he has no qualms about voting his own teammates, which seems unlikely to me in a NOC game.
Edit: Man, I hate being up against the deadline....who do we actually vote?
Edit2: Okay, after giving the thread a quick once-over, I'm gonna vote fire Class. He voted Mekkah early in the game before he had done much with literally no reasoning, and has contributed little since then.
Mekkah has voiced suspicious concerning (but not voted for): Johann (#285)
Mekkah has bold voted to "call out": Jumpluff (#112), jermy (#132)
Mekkah has bold voted as his "final answer": Trick Room (#220), Tyranidos (#289)
Mekkah has publicly defended: Rook (#128), Tenken (#135), thunda (#245),
Ideas that Mekkah believes/supports: "Mafia do not vote for their own" (#253), "Inspector should claim if they have at least one confirmed mafia" (#316), "if someone claims, we should lynch who they say to, then see if the night kill fails" (#321), "doesn't like leading lynches without serious evidence, is too lazy to look for him himself, but follows good reasoning when he sees it" (#335), "there's no excuse for anyone not to post unless they don't have time fore it" (#337), "firing inexperienced people is a bad idea, but there is no reason to treat the situation differently now than early in the game, considering that cardflip is off" (#337)
As a special note, Mekkah has claimed Corporate Spin Doctor.
I personally find it very notable that Mekkah voted for Trick Room and Tyranidos, and defended Rook. Considering that Mekkah's behavior is pretty coherent, I find it moderately unlikely that he is mafia. If he is mafia, it is highly probable that he has no qualms about voting his own teammates, which seems unlikely to me in a NOC game.
Edit: Man, I hate being up against the deadline....who do we actually vote?
Edit2: Okay, after giving the thread a quick once-over, I'm gonna vote fire Class. He voted Mekkah early in the game before he had done much with literally no reasoning, and has contributed little since then.
sds just went offline without calling offline so there may just be time left...
And yes, after looking through Class' history he does seem the most suspicious. I would rather not bandwagon, but at worst I am voting for another Corporate Spin Doctor here (which is equally as bad as me dying), and at best a mafia, with inbetween just a normal dude.
fire Class
I need to reword this a little: if firing inexperienced people is a bad idea now, it was always a bad idea. I don't think firing them by itself is a bad idea, but you should take caution when firing them because they simply do not play perfectly.
And yes, after looking through Class' history he does seem the most suspicious. I would rather not bandwagon, but at worst I am voting for another Corporate Spin Doctor here (which is equally as bad as me dying), and at best a mafia, with inbetween just a normal dude.
fire Class