NOC Medieval Mafia - Game Over: Majora's Maskians Win

Oh, so it's both.

I'm not sure why they'd kill yeti at all, but i'm even more surprised they didn't kill me or anyone else that has shown themselves to be clean.
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They probably thought she wasn't going to be lynched and she was in some way threatening. Nobody seriously tried to push a lynch on her yesterday even after we had the Sam flip -- not sure if that was from discussion stagnating or just a widespread silent agreement they were merely your classical in-fighting townies. B_T and Staraptor Call had a go, but the Quagsires lynch was settled as an inevitability pretty fast. It's not surprising that they would want to kill someone they felt to be a good contributor, and her death didn't really reveal much to my thinking (though I will go back and re-evaluate her interactions with people as I did for Snike, I think) because the voice of dissent against her was pretty weak anyway, so that doesn't make her a bad kill. Just an inferior kill. It is of course entirely possible Ullar's claim was bullshit, since he had to own up to a night role or admit he was mafia, but then they didn't want to kill you, so ?_?

I did go back and take a glance at S. Call, and he really didn't post much, but I noticed #466, where he felt there was a 'scumpush' on Cereza, claimed to have found Yeti 'already suspicious', and referred to her as 'underhanded'. This is pretty flipfloppy wrt #326, where he himself was critical of UncleSam and found Yeti anything but suspicious. Naturally everyone who's read it noticed his defence of Quagsires as well. I also didn't like his attitude with Snike (as I mentioned in #787). Not much else to see in his posts and Ullar is just askfsdf;ksdf;sdf a mess to try to get a read on. Infinity.Cypher said nothing and I don't believe Engi has either. Engi, please try to speak up, while there is only so much knowledge you are privy to as the fourth substitute you need to voice some thoughts. Either way I do agree there is a fair amount of suspiciousness there but I'm not sure what to do about it, since we can no longer ask Staraptor to defend himself. Try to drag some more data out of Engi, I guess.
 
Gah, had a big post written but it got eaten by cyber-tech alligators. I will try to summarize:

1) I think Backup BG is an easily faked claim, and the fact that Ullar/etc didn't die last night is odd. I also though, find it odd that, if a back-up BG doesn't exist, why billymills didn't die. Adding SCall's suspicious behavior to this mix makes it a definite possibility that he is mafia.

2) I think there is something to be learned from Yeti's death, but I do not know what yet. It's easier to analyze links to a confirmed scum rather than a confirmed town, but we'll see.

3) I think there is something to be learned from the D1 lynch results. I find it highly improbable that Quagsires was the only scum who tried to defend Quagsires. There is likely at least 1 scum in the Cereza/SCall voters in my opinion, but who knows.

4) I think, until we finally see a 2 kill night, that we can put the idea of a wolf to rest. I think that some sort of cult is possible, but I'm not too experienced with cults, so I don't know exactly how balanced and how restricted they could be. I'd like opinions on this from people more experienced with these types of games, but only as a footnote to a post with other substantial information.
 
Jalmont - Was called out for diverting attention away from Quagsires by Paperbalde and US (though this did kind of seem like a stretch coming from US). Kind of tries to distance himself from Quagsires by calling him scummy in a few posts, but does not vote for him. Also, seems to quiet down and hide after being called out. Only thing kind of saving him is that he didn't change his vote away from Leethoof at the end of the day to ensure Quagsires or SC's survival.

Brammi - Mainly pulled from posts #384, #394, and #397 (I didn't go back and read all of D1, just the later parts that focused on Quagsires). Highly defensive of Quagsires in his posts. I'm kinda skeptical because I think the mafia would be trying to distance themselves from Quagsires by that point in the thread, but Brammi keeps trying to stick up for him. This was before Quags claimed AC. Also, he helped start the bandwagon in Cereza D1.

Also, neither of them joined the SC/Quags wagons, along with these other observations, raise my suspicion levels.

Also, people who have move down on my suspicion list: BT, zorbees.

People I feel are basically clean: Billymills (after yesterday), aska (called out both Quags and SC D1, but could be a possible recruit?)

Those were my thoughts from reading through the later portions of D1.

With that said: @@@Lynch Engineer Pikachu@@@ I want to hear what you have to say.
 
Hi.

@jumpluff P2: The thing you have to remember is that at the time of #326, the "scumpush on Cereza" was not present. Considering that the last proverbial straw that sparked his vote was this "scumpush," it's not quite as flipfloppy as you make it out to be. The only thing I can say about SCall's shift from "just the way she posts" to "already suspicious" is that the span between those two posts were three days / six pages / eight (I think) Yeti posts apart, which I guess might be enough to change his opinion? I can't really answer that, sorry :/

EDIT: My tone above sounds a lot more accusing than I meant it to be; all I really wanted to point out is that there was lots of room for SCall's opinion to change.

As for possible lynch targets, Crux or MK would be my prime targets—the former because of generally low-quality posts (even worse than mine :o) and the latter because of generally low-quantity posts. >_> I'm not sure if MrcRanger has posted either, but if he's a sub reading through all thirty-six pages or so I guess we can give him some more time?
 
Quagsires's scum flip almost assures Ditto aka j-squared's scumness. On day 1, Ditto (who has subbed out for j-squared) buddied Quagsires to an extreme. He would make comments like "I think Quagsires is scummy" without voting him (weird) and then totally believed his AC claim when he claimed. Almost every action he took on day 1 protected Quagsires in some way. I may make a longer post later in the day detailing exactly why I feel this way, but if you reread Day 1, you should be able to follow this train of thought.

I think MK Ultra and Crux need to speak up or sub out, whichever they prefer. I don't think we should lynch inactives over people who are actually more likely to be mafia. @@vote j-squared@@
 
Users who held back from commenting on Quagsires are now scummy.

Yeti was NK'd because her direct interactions with Quagsires made her allegiance with him highly unlikely, and people such as myself have hinted as much yesterday.

This (#327) is Brammi's most recent opinion on Quagsires. And, I did not check, but it might be his only opinion on Quagsires. This opinion looks bad after Quags's flip, as he was defending him off of a possible scumpush-on-Quags assumption and not off of his own behavior, which he fails to comment on. Basically, he dismisses the arguments against Quagsires entirely because "you'll find scumtells if you pick on someone for long enough", which could be said on any wagon ever. Why does Quagsires's wagon have the luxury of being excused in this fashion and Quagsires's wagon alone?

@@Vote Brammi@@

I am not going to waste my time pushing Crux when there are scum to hunt. If he doesn't get his shit straight and shows minimal contribution / opinions on other people, I will be requesting an immediate subbing out.

Will be back in ~6 hours.
 
I agree that Crux and MK Ultra (and Brammi) should shape up or sub out. Crux is just flaunting it at this point. MK Ultra is hiding, Brammi posts with excuses and then disappears again. He's not even meeting his previously-stated quota of two good posts a cycle. A search on posts containing Quagsires made by Brammi yields: #327, an irrelevant post quoting Yeti, and #377. Here we have his odd voting bloc proposal, where he for some unfathomable reason suggests town!Yeti, scum!Quagsires, and ???!himself to form one. Anyway, he reiterates his town read on Quagsires.

Anyway, Brammi, you have stuff to talk about now, so talk about it.

It feels a little lame requesting people to sub out, but they are being unhelpful at best and scum at worst, sorry... of course I wonder if your sub request will actually be granted, since Crux has repeatedly posted to demonstrate he is active. Perhaps this is his strategy. Either way, his opinion on the current conversation is pertinent, because he both approved of Ditto and disapproved of Yeti. His reads may have changed, but how would we know?

j-squared's comments about jalmont are fair, and so jalmont should also speak up. If he is active enough to join other games then he is active enough to post in this.

Engi, I feel the best thing you can do is continue to participate in discussion throughout the day. This will let us confirm or invalidate our reads on Staraptor Call. Fair enough that you can't really answer for the flipfloppiness, and the time gap is important, but it's difficult to gauge when Staraptor wasn't active. So skipping over that.

However, just like Staraptor before you, you are exclusively picking on inactive users. Naturally I think inactive users need to be called out and differentiated from each other, but... That is a really weak stance to take because it's the popular opinion so it's easy to hide behind that, that and we don't have much data on them so it's not very telling and gives us nothing to work with. Do you have any more revealing scum reads, preferably on more active users? After all, you're the fourth substitute, so from your POV, you should well know inactivity != scum.
 
Aska, no need to lie & make things up...please go back and look at post #373. As I said, Ditto was cautious of lynching Quagsirrs, but only switched the vote after quags claim of AC, which I think was a prudent decision at the time.
 
jumpluff said:
However, just like Staraptor before you, you are exclusively picking on inactive users. Naturally I think inactive users need to be called out and differentiated from each other, but... That is a really weak stance to take because it's the popular opinion so it's easy to hide behind that, that and we don't have much data on them so it's not very telling and gives us nothing to work with. Do you have any more revealing scum reads, preferably on more active users? After all, you're the fourth substitute, so from your POV, you should well know inactivity != scum.
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This is absolutely true, but the people I subbed in for were subbed out because they weren't active at all. People such as MK have done almost nothing the entire game, yet they still haven't been subbed out, which is pretty much the only reason that I'm suspicious of them. If MK was a villager that posted this little, I strongly doubt that he wouldn't be subbed out; Infinity.Cypher was subbed out after two days of inactivity, yet MK has been inactive for much longer than that. Furthermore, he bandwagoned pretty quickly on the SCall vote and some other ones iirc which is pretty suspicious considering that his reasoning was about one line long. I'll stop harping on him, though.

As for active people, I actually think that BT is pretty suspicious. He initially said that he "can't see Quagsires as probscum at all" in #490, and while his argument for it made some sense, he talked so much about him in the later posts (#500, #533 for some examples) that I get the impression that he talked about Quags so much so as to distance himself from him. HOWEVER, that might just be how he posts, and from the rather numerous amount of arguments between him and Crux, I'm inclined to say that only one of them is scum at most. Given that Crux is much more scummy from the reasons already mentioned (general inactivity, useless posts) I'd support a Crux lynch first; if he flips village, though, I'd want to look at BT again.
 
j-squared said:
Aska, no need to lie & make things up...please go back and look at post #373. As I said, Ditto was cautious of lynching Quagsirrs, but only switched the vote after quags claim of AC, which I think was a prudent decision at the time.
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Yeah, sorry for lying and making things up when everything I said was true. Yes, Quagsires's AC claim "fooled" me for a moment as well at the end of day 1, but the fact that the first user to catch onto Quagsires's claim at all was YOU makes you really suspicious. You made unsubstantial posts throughout day 1 and said that you didn't want Quagsires lynched. The self-vote was yet another suspicious move, deflecting suspicion off of yourself without actually giving a defense.

And how can you say for sure what Ditto was talking about? You aren't him, so the best you can do is "i'm pretty sure he was thinking X".

Ditto's actions on Day 1, combined with the recent scumflip of Quagsires, makes it almost painfully obvious that you're scum.
 
askaninjask said:
He would make comments like "I think Quagsires is scummy" without voting him (weird)
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Once again, go back and read post #373, and tell me that this statement that you made isn't false.

Edit: And while you're at it read post #375 and tell me who was trying to protect Quags.

Edit2: And WTF? The first user to notice Quag's claim was YOU in post #516, then Ditto was the first to unvote Quags in post #520. I have no idea what your trying to say with "the first user to catch onto Quagsire's claim at all was YOU." Are you trying to say Ditto was the first to unvote Quagsires?
 
Well, Yeti's death seems a bit weird. Wasn't Yeti suspected at one point during the day?

Also, ponies have infected this game also... Let us flee while we can.

Beyond my joking, inactivity has been a bit weird after the first initial subs... Seems like they've loosened up a bit or something. Not sure what to say beyond that, but some people seem a bit oddly silent.

Yes, I fall under that, and I haven't got a PM about my activity, which seems a bit odd. Anywho, my bad for being so quiet, I'm just not sure what to say beyond inactives seem a bit fishy, jumpluff seems clean, and the mass amount of subs with EP seems awkward without certain other inactives taking a trip out.

Plus the whole no power role has been slain thing... but that's so obvious right now, not much else for me to mention on that beyond that it's very, very odd.
 
Engineer Pikachu said:
snip, click the arrow to see the post
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Infinity.Cypher was subbed out very early in the game, when substitutes were abundant. I do think the fact MK and Crux haven't been subbed is suspicious, since Spiffy and Walrein have been able to find substitutes upon request, but with their lack of subs they may be avoiding forced subbings where possible, especially since MK and Crux have been posting (not much, no, but they're about as active as a bunch of other people). Stuff like that is kinda hard to speculate on.

Since you bring up MK's quick bandwagon on Staraptor Call as suspicious, do you think it is likely Staraptor Call is scum or not, and if so, was MK Ultra bussing?
 
Ditto in post #373 was jumping onto a clearly established bandwagon. It looked at that time as though Quagsires was definitely going to be lynched. So, Ditto changes his strategy and lynches Quagsires. What's so towny about that?

And while I attacked Quagsires's claim in #516, that's not what I meant by "acknowledgement". I meant "accepting that it's true". Billymills and Yeti had posted BEFORE me and they BOTH similarly did not buy Quagsires's claim. The only user to really believe it was Ditto. That's what I'm trying to say.
 
I hate to meddle in the aska vs. j-squared conversation, but:

j-squared said:
snip snip
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Substantiating what aska said. Do a search on posts in this thread containing Quagsires by Ditto. Sticks up for him in #277, backtracks but won't vote for him in #283, suddenly doesn't care about him and won't vote him AGAIN in #289, and then defends him again in #309 while apparently finding Leethoof scummy enough to vote for. What caused the change of opinion in #373? All I can find is 'pressure to stop defending Quagsires and blend in a bit more'. I guess you might disagree with me and find that to be the action of a frustrated townie. To me it's so very scummy in hindsight that I start to second-guess myself. I am enjoying this conversation though because it is bringing aska to the forefront as well.

Also, something aska didn't point out: why are you deflecting to Staraptor Call? I would honestly not be shocked if both of you were scum. If you flipped scum then I would be even more suspicious of him because of the whole 'Ditto can't get a clear read on anyone but thinks Staraptor Call is a townie' thing I noted in my first post on Ditto. If you are town that muddles things up a bit though.

That is the third time today (the first 24 hours of the cycle even) I have made the mistake of forgetting subs >_> Right, right, sorry. I can't object to your line of reasoning there.
 
jumpluff said:
Infinity.Cypher was subbed out very early in the game, when substitutes were abundant. I do think the fact MK and Crux haven't been subbed is suspicious, since Spiffy and Walrein have been able to find substitutes upon request, but with their lack of subs they may be avoiding forced subbings where possible, especially since MK and Crux have been posting (not much, no, but they're about as active as a bunch of other people). Stuff like that is kinda hard to speculate on.

Since you bring up MK's quick bandwagon on Staraptor Call as suspicious, do you think it is likely Staraptor Call is scum or not, and if so, was MK Ultra bussing?
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@P1: Fair enough; I would think that they'd be subbed out before some other people, though.

@P2: I am Staraptor Call (role-wise). I am not scum. Therefore, Staraptor Call is not scum. I do find the fact that he lynched relatively quickly with relatively no reasoning sort of suspicious, though.
 
Staraptor Call said:
@zorbees 455: I post in this thread every time I go on Smogon. If you think I've been active-lurking except when people mention me, back it up with timestamps.
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Randomly found this while looking over the end of d1. Idk if this was Staraptor Call trying to deflect attention from himself, or just being an idiot, but does he really expect me to look constantly at a) when Staraptor Call's name is mentioned in this thread and b) when Staraptor Call has been active on Smogon? He wanted me to prove he was active-lurking with time-stamps, but unless I was actively looking for an active lurker (say that 5 times fast), it is kind of a hard thing to really prove.

However though, i think it is possible that Staraptor Call and fellow subs are village. Staraptor Call never blatantly buddied Quagsires like Ditto did, and did vote him at times (although he ended the day voting Yeti). This could be distancing, but it might have been genuine. I sort of agree with Brammi that you can read almost anything as a scum-tell. Staraptor Call, if village, probably didn't see it as distancing because he probably never saw himself as buddying Quagsires. Ditto, however, was pretty out-in-the-open about believing Quagsire's alliance checker claim. Staraptor Call is a mystery to me, particularly because of Ullar's backup bodyguard claim and then not dying, but I think Ditto is a tad more scummy at the moment. I doubt both of them are mafia, but I do see it as a possibility. I think Engineer Pikachu could easily be lynched tomorrow if he is still suspected, and no new suspects arrive, as we'd have another night to see who the mafia kills and how Ullar's claim affects this.

I would however, like to see some more of J-squared's reads on who he thinks is possible scum and who of the less obvious he thinks could be town.

Also Brammi really defended Quagsires iirc and has not posted very much at all recently, so I wouldn't mind a Brammi lynch, although I think it is very possible he is just an idiot. Additionally, we wouldn't learn as much from his death as we would from a Ditto or Staraptor Call (and their respective subs) death.
 
Oh, that reminds me. It may be worth noting that Ullar could not use his bodyguard ability last night and so unless self-protect (can't remember if we talked about it), the mafia had no real reason to kill him. I am trying to reconcile Staraptor's dodgy behaviour (and hypocritical calling out of active lurkers) with Ullar and Engi, but it is hard :(
 
I'd like to ask J-squared his opinions on Zorbees, askaninjask and jumpluff.

I also would like to know if you guys think it is worthwhile for the inspector to come out today, or wait for a bit, or some sort of conditional criterion.

Crux, Leethoof, and MK Ultra should all be subbed. We should not have to waste any more time on them simply because none of them want to post anything worthwhile.


My opinion on the inspector is: if he feels he or she is sufficiently in danger, or has received a scum result (or non-result) on anyone not including j-squared. I believe the mask, because it's being passed around so much, works as some sort of inspect-proof item.

It's obvious that the night 1 pass was made so that Quagsires wouldn't lose it if he were lynched again the next day. The night 2 pass makes me more suspicious. I doubt it could be because they felt the other person was at risk (unless it was mk ultra), but they must have had some reason for moving it again.
 
This is the kind of matter I'd rather leave to their own judgment. Basically, if they feel their results will give us a new perspective. A particularly revealing scum read, or cleans that will put us on the right path. Any information they would be uncomfortable having not shared if they died. Day 4 is honestly very late, especially with the bodyguard down, for the inspector to still be sitting on their information. However, they may have nothing they feel is worth revealing themselves to share.
 
jumpluff said:
Oh, that reminds me. It may be worth noting that Ullar could not use his bodyguard ability last night and so unless self-protect (can't remember if we talked about it), the mafia had no real reason to kill him. I am trying to reconcile Staraptor's dodgy behaviour (and hypocritical calling out of active lurkers) with Ullar and Engi, but it is hard :(
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The reason they'd have to kill him is so that they don't get "one night behind" on their kills. For example, if they killed Ullar last night, they would be able to kill billymills, or whoever they found the most threatening to them, tonight, rather than having to kill Ullar tonight and then billy the next night. I also don't see why Ullar would be unable to use his ability on night 3, when the bodyguard died night 1. I guess he could be 1/2 night and used it night 2, but that just seems kinda odd to me.

@MrcRanger97: Post your opinions on ditto and staraptor call, and their subs. This should be a good starting point.
 
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