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NOC Great Idea Mafia-Game Over! Mafia, vonFiedler, and More Cowbell win!
- Thread starter shinyskarmory
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All right then, time for an analysis of Obbmud. Warning: long post ahead.
This seems like a legitimate post that someone new to the game would make. Not much to say here.
RVS yada yada, nothing that can be concluded.
This is sort of interesting. It doesn’t seem like something a mafia member would say (but then again that’s WIFOM) but it does seem odd that obbmud just said this rather suspicious thing – he basically admits to pretending to be weaker than he is – without trying to defend himself.
Nothing to say here; Obbmud targets an inactive player, is ninja’d, and unvotes. Perhaps it’s suspicious that he didn’t pick a new person to target, but it’s still essentially RVS and perhaps he felt it would be futile.
Not all that bad. He explains his decision to not revote but targets B_T just because B_T called him out on it… both this and his More Cowbell vote seem to showcase a defensive nature. However, perhaps I’m making too much of the RVS stage.
Now for this. He admits to purposefully putting up a veneer of being dumb – definitely not a good thing. He also mentions that part of the reason was that most people playing this game hadn’t played TP NOC. However, he provides a good explanation for not knowing what RVS is… but then again, he references “erratic posting habits” that to be honest I haven’t really seen from him. This might be a mafia member’s failed attempt to play dumb.
As showcasing one of his “erratic posting habits,” he points to something that’s a simple mistake and really couldn’t lead anyone to suspect him of being mafia.
That “I’m not sure what you want me to say” is a tad suspicious… he doesn’t really say anything concrete to defend himself here. Again, a reference to his “erratic posting habits” that defend his playing dumb at first.
This (and his next post, which I won’t quote) are a pretty reasonable scumread of starwarsfan.
Here, obbmud defends Felony (which supports him being town, as a mafia member would probably have jumped on the wagon). He then decides to vote tesung for bandwagoning. I don’t like his logic that tesung should have a different reason for voting someone than celever, though.
Obbmud first makes the very obvious statement that the mafia is not targeting Memoric or Cancerous, and then decides to look into whether they killed him based on his scumreads. The fact that he felt the need to say that might be overcompensating for being a mafia member.
In his next post, he analyzes a lot of the current players, and then makes his vote based on what’s not a bandwagon. His focus on not making a bandwagon could be considered scummy.
Skipping over the entire inconsequential “tribunal” debate… and the votecounting…
I’m not quite sure about this one. I don’t see his logic for being suspicious of Lightwolf besides Lightwolf voting for Felony…
These posts definitely point to a mafia trying to keep a Pacifist that could prove useful later alive. Despite good arguments having been made for killing a Pacifist, Obbmud is very hesitant to vote someone who is guaranteed not to be village.
This post sends contradictory messages. While he calls out 3 people who were both participating in the votes that got people lynched, he still seems to believe that lynching Ullar, a neutral who probably would’ve sided with mafia anyway, is suspicious.
This is a reasonable enough defense, stating that backing down on the starwarsfan argument couldn’t help him if he was a mafia.
Overall, Obbmud99 has made some pretty suspicious moves at certain points in the game, like his pretending to be dumb and his unwillingness to vote Ullar. I'd like more of an explanation on the latter point especially.
This seems like a legitimate post that someone new to the game would make. Not much to say here.
RVS yada yada, nothing that can be concluded.
This is sort of interesting. It doesn’t seem like something a mafia member would say (but then again that’s WIFOM) but it does seem odd that obbmud just said this rather suspicious thing – he basically admits to pretending to be weaker than he is – without trying to defend himself.
Nothing to say here; Obbmud targets an inactive player, is ninja’d, and unvotes. Perhaps it’s suspicious that he didn’t pick a new person to target, but it’s still essentially RVS and perhaps he felt it would be futile.
Not all that bad. He explains his decision to not revote but targets B_T just because B_T called him out on it… both this and his More Cowbell vote seem to showcase a defensive nature. However, perhaps I’m making too much of the RVS stage.
Now for this. He admits to purposefully putting up a veneer of being dumb – definitely not a good thing. He also mentions that part of the reason was that most people playing this game hadn’t played TP NOC. However, he provides a good explanation for not knowing what RVS is… but then again, he references “erratic posting habits” that to be honest I haven’t really seen from him. This might be a mafia member’s failed attempt to play dumb.
As showcasing one of his “erratic posting habits,” he points to something that’s a simple mistake and really couldn’t lead anyone to suspect him of being mafia.
That “I’m not sure what you want me to say” is a tad suspicious… he doesn’t really say anything concrete to defend himself here. Again, a reference to his “erratic posting habits” that defend his playing dumb at first.
This (and his next post, which I won’t quote) are a pretty reasonable scumread of starwarsfan.
Here, obbmud defends Felony (which supports him being town, as a mafia member would probably have jumped on the wagon). He then decides to vote tesung for bandwagoning. I don’t like his logic that tesung should have a different reason for voting someone than celever, though.
Obbmud first makes the very obvious statement that the mafia is not targeting Memoric or Cancerous, and then decides to look into whether they killed him based on his scumreads. The fact that he felt the need to say that might be overcompensating for being a mafia member.
In his next post, he analyzes a lot of the current players, and then makes his vote based on what’s not a bandwagon. His focus on not making a bandwagon could be considered scummy.
Skipping over the entire inconsequential “tribunal” debate… and the votecounting…
I’m not quite sure about this one. I don’t see his logic for being suspicious of Lightwolf besides Lightwolf voting for Felony…
These posts definitely point to a mafia trying to keep a Pacifist that could prove useful later alive. Despite good arguments having been made for killing a Pacifist, Obbmud is very hesitant to vote someone who is guaranteed not to be village.
This post sends contradictory messages. While he calls out 3 people who were both participating in the votes that got people lynched, he still seems to believe that lynching Ullar, a neutral who probably would’ve sided with mafia anyway, is suspicious.
This is a reasonable enough defense, stating that backing down on the starwarsfan argument couldn’t help him if he was a mafia.
Overall, Obbmud99 has made some pretty suspicious moves at certain points in the game, like his pretending to be dumb and his unwillingness to vote Ullar. I'd like more of an explanation on the latter point especially.
When I initially posted this, I assumed two things. I assumed that the neutral had to be scum, and I put all my neutrals down as traitor/someone who counts as a mafia. Both of these assumptions were way off base. But, I see now that this could work if the neutral were friendly which I put in my next post:
The above reflects scenario D assuming a Mislynch and a village kill. Or a NL and both Serial Killer and Mafia hit town. If we were to NL on scenario D with a traitor involved and no killer, the ratio of town to village would be 5T:5M, which I considered a loss if the MYLO/LYLO was based on body count, which I still think it does. But, if we were to NL in D with a third that was not considered mafia, the ratio would be 6T:5M assuming that the third was considered part of the village (T+N:M), which is MYLO. You basically said this yourself:
I know I said I wouldn't post till I was done with reads, but I want to make sure we're on the same page.
That still means, that the neutral decides the game, it is LYLO currently in that case as well, a potential LYLO at least, still favours the lynch today option.
But to make it clear, lets ask shinyskarmory again. Hey host can you guarantee us, that VILLAGE has majority still if we no lynch? Village alone majority.
But to make it clear, lets ask shinyskarmory again. Hey host can you guarantee us, that VILLAGE has majority still if we no lynch? Village alone majority.
Actually... huh. Why can't I do math today? :/
The ratio would be 6T:4M with a friendly third, not 6T:5M. Otherwise we'd have one too many. ._.
I took shiny's statement literally, with him guaranteeing us a Day 4 and not a vote majority. I thought that if we ML, we lose without even getting a D4. There's a day vigilante on this list, which could alter the voting in the day even if mafia doesn't automatically win, which is why I assumed maf won by body count. :T
The ratio would be 6T:4M with a friendly third, not 6T:5M. Otherwise we'd have one too many. ._.
I took shiny's statement literally, with him guaranteeing us a Day 4 and not a vote majority. I thought that if we ML, we lose without even getting a D4. There's a day vigilante on this list, which could alter the voting in the day even if mafia doesn't automatically win, which is why I assumed maf won by body count. :T
I had been influenced by your post to lynch him. Sure the vote would have gone through, but I thought that if I was too reluctant to hop on a bandwagon, I would be killed that night for being too resistant to bandwagoning, a common technique to remove villagers.
Did you read the reason why I went after Tesung on day one? I'm sure you didn't, so I will quote it for you.
I was lynching for bandwagon. Day 1 does not contain much information, so I voted on the one piece of reliable information: Lynch votes.
Now you may notice that I am very against bandwagoning. I am because I can remember in my first game (PMD mafia) that my team (DAD) had won the game by getting control of the village and bandwagon voting off every villager in the game. I just want to make sure that doesn't happen again, so I will paranoid lynch vote people whom I feel are bandwagon voting, because to me that is a very suspicious behavior.
I'd go by that assumption of Day 4 happens for sure if we NL and we'd have the majority, but clearly if there is a neutral it isn't a true majority, since any neutral can side with the mafia, this is why I discredit that option.
So, I take it that you think there's three mafia and a serial killer then? Or do you stick by the two mayor deal? I think there can't be two mayors, but it's a possibility that there's a serial killer.
Comments in bold and italic
A theory that I think is very possible is that we have a doctor on Memoric/Nitrox116, and the mafia has spent their time both nights trying to kill memoric. If this was the case, than the serial killer's kill could have been hitting people with no significance (like blue tornado) or a obvious mafia target (cancerous) without much suspicion (since we basically disregarded b_T's death in a few hours.)
The Role list got 2 mayors on it, so double mayor can happen. Either way till ss replies, we are p much done with possible setups, lets see what I can mine from the thread. Also just in case can anyone check if someone posted a paragraph where the first letter of every sentence spells out Traitor, or something like that? It's a longshot but we might get lucky!
Kinda too sleepy to do something productive, so going for the second best thing, sparking discussion on a point that I feel didn't get addressed enough day 2 (I will be leaving Celever alone for now, mostly because of last nights huge WIFOM I doubt I could get Celever lynched anyways)
So lets talk about starwarsfan. I feel like, as I said last day, a lot of his posts are meaningless, he appears pretty active, but a lot of his posts have been answering questions, talking about vote count, arguing over word definitions and in general nitpicky. To me it feels like purposefully fake activity, though could be villager who got nothing to say and would rather talk than lurk, still might as well ask you guys, what's your opinion on this matter?
So lets talk about starwarsfan. I feel like, as I said last day, a lot of his posts are meaningless, he appears pretty active, but a lot of his posts have been answering questions, talking about vote count, arguing over word definitions and in general nitpicky. To me it feels like purposefully fake activity, though could be villager who got nothing to say and would rather talk than lurk, still might as well ask you guys, what's your opinion on this matter?
Am I entitled to an opinion on this? Because if I am I can confirm this:
LightWolf said:
Oh whoops accidentally hit post
I've been told by many people that inactivity is the worst thing possible in NOCs so that's my reasoning
I've been told by many people that inactivity is the worst thing possible in NOCs so that's my reasoning
Some responses to Obbmud (numbers based on your comments):
4. Blue_Tornado's kill wasn't an RNG kill, it was a kill of someone with a lot of experience. I believe starwarsfan made a collection of posts that he made, none of which targeted somebody severely.
5. What I meant was that instead of trying to decide who was scummier, you seemed to be voting solely based on not being able to be accused of a bandwagon. Such overcompensation might be construed as scummy.
6. About Uncle-samming: Yes, this is unfortunately a major concern. However, if we have no evidence that LW is mafia other than that LW can put up an amazing facade (I read Mafia from the Depths, just wow), then if LW turns out to be village, we just lost a major power player.
7. Neutrals vs. scum: I still think that logic is really shaky. It was already established that a Pacifist would likely team up with the mafia in the future, and lynching a neutral is always better than lynching a possible villager. Any read on somebody would be much more shaky than just going ahead and lynching Ullar, who might as well be a future mafia.
4. Blue_Tornado's kill wasn't an RNG kill, it was a kill of someone with a lot of experience. I believe starwarsfan made a collection of posts that he made, none of which targeted somebody severely.
5. What I meant was that instead of trying to decide who was scummier, you seemed to be voting solely based on not being able to be accused of a bandwagon. Such overcompensation might be construed as scummy.
6. About Uncle-samming: Yes, this is unfortunately a major concern. However, if we have no evidence that LW is mafia other than that LW can put up an amazing facade (I read Mafia from the Depths, just wow), then if LW turns out to be village, we just lost a major power player.
7. Neutrals vs. scum: I still think that logic is really shaky. It was already established that a Pacifist would likely team up with the mafia in the future, and lynching a neutral is always better than lynching a possible villager. Any read on somebody would be much more shaky than just going ahead and lynching Ullar, who might as well be a future mafia.
To my knowledge, Lightwolf has a similar (if not more) amount of experience. If they had killed B_T on Day 1, then logically LW would have been the next target. I'm not quite letting him off the radar so easily.
Adding original thought to the confusing mess going on atm is hard but i'll give it a shot. I want to take a step back for a moment and look at the larger picture, a brief summery of how we have looked at all the players.
Big Names
Celever: The talk around Celever has seemed to be centered around defensiveness and accusations early game, followed by a long standing tiff with LightWolf.
starwarsfan: Suspected for jumping on wagons too early and not saying/contributing a ton
Tesung: Targeted a ton for early inactivity and weirdness
Obbmud99: Early contradictions in skill followed by some posts that seemed weird
Middle Range
LightWolf: talked about in passing, mostly to say that despite high level of activity, he isn't confirmed
Walrein: See above
Off the Radar
PokeguyNXB: despite inactivity, hasn't been too much scrutiny
spiresquire: subbed in, contributed a good bit
More Cowbell: pretty sure he's flown totally under the radar, provided some decent posts but activity isn't crazy like LW
Ace Emerald: whatever I'll do me, think I've been making decent posts now and then and staying involved
Nitrox116: Confirmed mayor
If I've screwed something up please correct me, summaries are hard but I feel like its worth it. There are a lot of players that have received very little scrutiny, and chances are there is at least one scum in there.
Big Names
Celever: The talk around Celever has seemed to be centered around defensiveness and accusations early game, followed by a long standing tiff with LightWolf.
starwarsfan: Suspected for jumping on wagons too early and not saying/contributing a ton
Tesung: Targeted a ton for early inactivity and weirdness
Obbmud99: Early contradictions in skill followed by some posts that seemed weird
Middle Range
LightWolf: talked about in passing, mostly to say that despite high level of activity, he isn't confirmed
Walrein: See above
Off the Radar
PokeguyNXB: despite inactivity, hasn't been too much scrutiny
spiresquire: subbed in, contributed a good bit
More Cowbell: pretty sure he's flown totally under the radar, provided some decent posts but activity isn't crazy like LW
Ace Emerald: whatever I'll do me, think I've been making decent posts now and then and staying involved
Nitrox116: Confirmed mayor
If I've screwed something up please correct me, summaries are hard but I feel like its worth it. There are a lot of players that have received very little scrutiny, and chances are there is at least one scum in there.
I assume you mean [MYLO] this post, #247? Honestly I can't really make anything from it. Celever's answer sounds like the easy, ''let's all be friends'' way out, but I think he's only referring to the 'tribunal' definition, which IMO wasn't a useful discussion. It does sound like Celever is buddying up to swf a little here, though I'm not sure of other examples where he does that. If you're referring to another post, please link me to it.
Onto the rest of the thread, I agree that starwarsfan has been posting quite a lot without bringing anything discussion-worthy to the table. Most of his post are one-liner responses to others, confirming what they said. Interesting to see how, on Day 2, swf suddenly switches his target to Tesung (after not having bothered with DLE / Tesung on Day 1), and doesn't change this afterwards. What I did find kind of a strange remark is how swf says ''I've been told by many people that inactivity is the worst thing possible in NOCs so that's my reasoning'', as activity for the sake of activity isn't necessarily helpful. Posting a lot sounds like something a new mafia member would do to appear town-aligned, since it's often thought that activity = village and inactivity = mafia.
Final point: it's possible that there is a Parolee in the game, who gets lynched at one vote less than majority. Because of this, I think we should be hesitant to put people at L-2, since at that point any mafia member can hammer the lynch. This is assuming the mafia has at least one info role, and found out about the Parolee. Not saying this is 100% the case in this game, just wanted to point out that this is a possibility that we should take into consideration.
Day 3, MYLO Vote Count 3 (UNCHANGED)
Today is a MYLO (mislynch and lose) day. If a village-aligned player is lynched today and another village-aligned player is killed tonight, the village will no longer hold a majority vote in the lynch. However, if you No Lynch, the game is guaranteed to reach Day 4.
(11) Not quite at the final frontier:
(majority is 6 votes)
1. Ace Emerald (0):
4. Celever (1): Obbmud99
5. Tesung (0):
6. spiresquire (0):
8. LightWolf (0):
9. Nitrox116 (0):
10. More Cowbell (0):
11. Obbmud99 (2): Tesung, Celever,
12. PokeguyNXB (0):Nitrox116,
13. starwarsfan (1): Walrein,
15. Walrein (0):
No Lynch (1):starwarsfan
Not voting: Ace Emerald, spiresquire, LightWolf, Nitrox116, More Cowbell, PokeguyNXB, starwarsfan
A 48 hour extension has been given to get us through the weekend, and because it's MYLO.
LightWolf-I cannot tell you any more then I have already told you without compromising setup information (and one could argue that what I've already told you was too much).
Next Vote Count: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 11 (24 hours away)
Current Deadline: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 13 (72 hours away) or when majority is reached.
Carry on.
Today is a MYLO (mislynch and lose) day. If a village-aligned player is lynched today and another village-aligned player is killed tonight, the village will no longer hold a majority vote in the lynch. However, if you No Lynch, the game is guaranteed to reach Day 4.
(11) Not quite at the final frontier:
(majority is 6 votes)
1. Ace Emerald (0):
4. Celever (1): Obbmud99
5. Tesung (0):
6. spiresquire (0):
8. LightWolf (0):
9. Nitrox116 (0):
10. More Cowbell (0):
11. Obbmud99 (2): Tesung, Celever,
12. PokeguyNXB (0):
13. starwarsfan (1): Walrein,
15. Walrein (0):
No Lynch (1):
Not voting: Ace Emerald, spiresquire, LightWolf, Nitrox116, More Cowbell, PokeguyNXB, starwarsfan
A 48 hour extension has been given to get us through the weekend, and because it's MYLO.
LightWolf-I cannot tell you any more then I have already told you without compromising setup information (and one could argue that what I've already told you was too much).
Next Vote Count: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 11 (24 hours away)
Current Deadline: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 13 (72 hours away) or when majority is reached.
Carry on.
Last edited:
May 13th is 72 hours away. Is the deadline now Monday, or is it the thirteenth?
Guys, we are wasting valuable time here. We have just used up 8 hours with no posts whatsoever. We can't let this happen again.
There were a few people going after PokeguyNXB day 2 over inactivity. He had three different people vote on him at one time or another. Not sure his is "off the radar". We need to have some kind of discussion going on, or else we are just going to waste time.
I'm not sure that you can lynch someone for guessing the definition of tribunal. I let him off the hook on that accusation because it was becoming a pointless argument that would have lead nowhere, and was based of the fact that swf was guessing what tribunal meant. Just re-inforcing that point, because some people don't seem to be playing much attention to this thread or the context of the posts in which you rip out your context-less arguments. (sorry)
I agree with you that the tribunal discussion was pretty useless, and not worth lynching anyone over. I didn't plan to accuse anyone over that situation, if that was what you were getting at.
By the way, where the hell is everyone? I've checked the thread several times yesterday and didn't even see anyone lurking, not to mention posting. Is final's week coming up or something?
By the way, where the hell is everyone? I've checked the thread several times yesterday and didn't even see anyone lurking, not to mention posting. Is final's week coming up or something?
Idk about in America but I have some exams in a month or so, so I've been kinda busy with that.
Just on my iPad rn, but the above post you made about my post being the "easy let's all be friends" way out... I'm not sure what you mean. Can you tell me which post you were referring to?
PokeguyNXB you are lurking. Post something substantial. Now.
Unvote Obbmudd
Lynch PokeguyNXB
(also More Cowbell, you've been on since I posted. I want a reply from you ASAP)
Unvote Obbmudd
Lynch PokeguyNXB
(also More Cowbell, you've been on since I posted. I want a reply from you ASAP)
Sorry for not posting... real life has kinda been busy for me. From now on, I will post more often and my posts will be more meaningful
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