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Simple Questions/Requests - Mark 46 (Minor Pokemon Trades, Item Requests etc GO HERE) (NO HACKING)

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Keep/Toss?
kyogre-primal.gif
quickball.png

Calm
31/x/31/31/31/30

Edit: I backed up my save, so I'll reset for the right nature (had a Modest sync, but would've been okay with Bold), but was curious if this had any trade value
 
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craymond727 said:
Keep/Toss?
kyogre-primal.gif
quickball.png

Calm
31/x/31/31/31/30

Edit: I backed up my save, so I'll reset for the right nature (had a Modest sync, but would've been okay with Bold), but was curious if this had any trade value
Click to expand...
At lv 50 (standard wifi match) with no investment in speed it's the same as 31 ivs . 1 speed lost if you go 252 in speed .

You should keep that .
 
Hello again guys, I have a statistics question regarding the probability of one actually catching a legit shiny legendary by means of soft-resetting. If I'm not mistaken, the chances of a Pokemon being shiny is 1/8192, and if boosted by the Shiny Charm item it becomes 1/2730 (300% increase). To match the desired Nature, one needs a synchronizer to get a probability of 1/2. The one part I'm not getting is how to calculate the probability of the IVs part (since it's a guaranteed 3 IVs perfect, I'm not sure how to calculate the probability).

Let's say one wants to catch by means of soft resetting, a Shiny Timid Raikou with IVs of 31/x/31/31/31/31 and the aids of the Shiny Charm and a Synchronizer. What's the probability of that event occurring?

Sorry if this doesn't belong here, but I've just been wondering about the question above.
 
kuladiamond said:
Hello again guys, I have a statistics question regarding the probability of one actually catching a legit shiny legendary by means of soft-resetting. If I'm not mistaken, the chances of a Pokemon being shiny is 1/8192, and if boosted by the Shiny Charm item it becomes 1/2730 (300% increase). To match the desired Nature, one needs a synchronizer to get a probability of 1/2. The one part I'm not getting is how to calculate the probability of the IVs part (since it's a guaranteed 3 IVs perfect, I'm not sure how to calculate the probability).

Let's say one wants to catch by means of soft resetting, a Shiny Timid Raikou with IVs of 31/x/31/31/31/31 and the aids of the Shiny Charm and a Synchronizer. What's the probability of that event occurring?

Sorry if this doesn't belong here, but I've just been wondering about the question above.
Click to expand...

I randomly did some rough calcs today and came up with around 1 in 10 million.

1/2 for nature * 1/2 for 3 needed 31s * 1/31 * 1/31 * 1/2730

I thinks that's about 1 in 10 million if it's correct lol.
 
kuladiamond said:
Hello again guys, I have a statistics question regarding the probability of one actually catching a legit shiny legendary by means of soft-resetting. If I'm not mistaken, the chances of a Pokemon being shiny is 1/8192, and if boosted by the Shiny Charm item it becomes 1/2730 (300% increase). To match the desired Nature, one needs a synchronizer to get a probability of 1/2. The one part I'm not getting is how to calculate the probability of the IVs part (since it's a guaranteed 3 IVs perfect, I'm not sure how to calculate the probability).

Let's say one wants to catch by means of soft resetting, a Shiny Timid Raikou with IVs of 31/x/31/31/31/31 and the aids of the Shiny Charm and a Synchronizer. What's the probability of that event occurring?

Sorry if this doesn't belong here, but I've just been wondering about the question above.
Click to expand...
this is how i would calc that
3/6*2/5*1/4*(1/32*(2/3))*(1/32*1/2)
the 3 guaranteed 31s in the right place, plus getting 2 more 31s in the right place
=.00000806

x 1/2048 which i beleive is the wild shiny rate and you get .00000000393% chance, or 1 in 2,544,529,261

but i could be wrong

edit: holy crap thats 2.5 BILLION. at the rate of 1 sr/min, itd take 4753 YEARS. jeez

edit 2: I FORGOT THE SYNC! haha so its half as likely
1 in 5 billion lmao
 
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Raistmagic said:
I randomly did some rough calcs today and came up with around 1 in 10 million.

1/2 for nature * 1/2 for 3 needed 31s * 1/31 * 1/31 * 1/2730

I thinks that's about 1 in 10 million if it's correct lol.
Click to expand...

raist i also think you need to consider that a 0 iv is possible, so its 1/32 of getting a perfect 31, plus with 3 empty ivs left after the 3 guaranteed 31s, you must then multiply the 1/32 by 2/3, and 1/32 by 1/2. this is because on the 4th iv, theres a 2/3 chance it doesnt land on attack, and the fifth remaining iv is multiplied by 1/2 because again attack is still possible, but all of the other ivs are taken up by this point. assuming a. 31/x/31/31/31/31 spread. if that makes sense haha
 
Keep/Toss?
kyogre-primal.gif
quickball.png

Modest
31/4/31/30/31/30 (HP Fire)

Edit: Not so much keep/toss, but more along the lines of should I keep going for the 31 Spe and SpA?
 
MattaPod said:
this is how i would calc that
3/6*2/5*1/4*(1/32*(2/3))*(1/32*1/2)
the 3 guaranteed 31s in the right place, plus getting 2 more 31s in the right place
=.00000806

x 1/2048 which i beleive is the wild shiny rate and you get .00000000393% chance, or 1 in 2,544,529,261

but i could be wrong

edit: holy crap thats 2.5 BILLION. at the rate of 1 sr/min, itd take 4753 YEARS. jeez

edit 2: I FORGOT THE SYNC! haha so its half as likely
1 in 5 billion lmao
Click to expand...

Oh my goodness, that is ridiculous. No wonder people prefer to hack shiny legends than capturing them legitimately. Major props to soft-resetters, especially those hunting for shinies with competitive IVs.
 
im actually going for a shiny jolly verizion now because of this convo (not a 5iv though) haha

i was thinking nest ball, heal is ok but maybe too much pink. any suggestions guys?
 
MattaPod said:
raist i also think you need to consider that a 0 iv is possible, so its 1/32 of getting a perfect 31, plus with 3 empty ivs left after the 3 guaranteed 31s, you must then multiply the 1/32 by 2/3, and 1/32 by 1/2. this is because on the 4th iv, theres a 2/3 chance it doesnt land on attack, and the fifth remaining iv is multiplied by 1/2 because again attack is still possible, but all of the other ivs are taken up by this point. assuming a. 31/x/31/31/31/31 spread. if that makes sense haha
Click to expand...
MattaPod said:
raist i also think you need to consider that a 0 iv is possible, so its 1/32 of getting a perfect 31, plus with 3 empty ivs left after the 3 guaranteed 31s, you must then multiply the 1/32 by 2/3, and 1/32 by 1/2. this is because on the 4th iv, theres a 2/3 chance it doesnt land on attack, and the fifth remaining iv is multiplied by 1/2 because again attack is still possible, but all of the other ivs are taken up by this point. assuming a. 31/x/31/31/31/31 spread. if that makes sense haha
Click to expand...

gotcha. Still comes back at just under 1 in 10 mil right?
 
kuladiamond said:
Oh my goodness, that is ridiculous. No wonder people prefer to hack shiny legends than capturing them legitimately. Major props to soft-resetters, especially those hunting for shinies with competitive IVs.
Click to expand...

Yeah, there are some flaws in the early calculations there. Here is .com's calculations on the chances of catching a perfect IV shiny legendary in Hoenn. To summarise there, it's about 1 in 5.3 million, which is twice as good as what Raistmagic got.
 
rufusdrumknott said:
Yeah, there are some flaws in the early calculations there. Here is .com's calculations on the chances of catching a perfect IV shiny legendary in Hoenn. To summarise there, it's about 1 in 5.3 million, which is twice as good as what Raistmagic got.
Click to expand...

Thanks for clarifying, million is definitely better than billion :) Still though, the odds are certainly against you when trying to do one of those soft resetting projects.
 
rufusdrumknott said:
Yeah, there are some flaws in the early calculations there. Here is .com's calculations on the chances of catching a perfect IV shiny legendary in Hoenn. To summarise there, it's about 1 in 5.3 million, which is twice as good as what Raistmagic got.
Click to expand...
im not saying mines definitely correct, and my shiny calcs were off for sure. but the 3ivs lining up at 1/2 in his calcs are incorrect as well. there are far more than 2 possible spreads with 3 perfect ivs. the 3ivs lining up are actually 1/20


point is, itll take an insane amount of luck!
 
craymond727 said:
Keep/Toss?
kyogre-primal.gif
quickball.png

Modest
31/4/31/30/31/30 (HP Fire)

Edit: Not so much keep/toss, but more along the lines of should I keep going for the 31 Spe and SpA?
Click to expand...
252+ SpA Primal Kyogre Hidden Power Fire vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ferrothorn: 0-0 (0 - 0%) -- aim for the horn next time
As useless as HP Fire is on Primal Kyogre it made me lol. Missing out on 1 IV in those two stats really blows tho, I would vote toss.
 
Looking for someone willing to redeem a shiny charizard code. And also do some soft resetting my offers are anything from my thread.
 
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