NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.

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well as I said before if we're getting a sub for acid I don't want to lynch him just yet, and I don't really see any reason to lynch UTO at the moment, so I guess i'll go back and reread the arguments to see if I agree or not.
Also I feel like nobody's actually responding to anything I say, not sure if its because they aren't in wallposts or because what i say just has shitty logic, but it'd be nice to hear some feedback
I've been responding to what you say, but my posts are very long. Since you are still saying the same thing, I can only say the same thing in response, which is that you need to vote. The town can't win if we don't lynch today, the mafia just gets up to two free kills on us. We don't have the time to wait for The Diabolic Gift, who is not really around, to host acidphoenix, and for that sub to sub in, read the thread, and post reads. So, you need to read UncleSam's and my arguments about acidphoenix and decide whether you agree. If you would rather not lynch him, you must lynch U-Turn Out, because we need to hit majority; the small numerical risk of mislynch is far better than not hitting majority. Which has also been addressed in the thread, so, like, you can probably see why we don't really want to rewrite old posts. This is really obstructionist anti-town play because deadline has been set.

Why do you see no reason to lynch U-Turn Out? Did you not read any of the posts made about them? You said you have a nullread on them, did anything change? Literally think about it like this:

- There are 4 scum and 5 town in the game
- From your PoV, you must be one of the 5 town
- Therefore everyone has at least 1/2 odds of being mafia and 1/2 odds of being town that isn't you
- If you can get some confident reads in on who is town and scum, you can use process of elimination to figure out scenarios where people must be scummy (because of course this 50-50 shit is not true, some people are clearly more town than others by their play, and some people are more suspicious)
- Literally, someone has to be the mafia. Four people have to be the mafia. It isn't that risky a read to make

The fewer scum you're willing to even consider, the more it implicates you and anyone you try to protect as your partner.
 
I fail to see how acidphoenix is a 50/50. Literally the only thing going for him is the host's hosting connecting with his inactivity. He was not inactive before. Half of the time I went to post he is always there. It is his refusal to post that makes him look scummy. He could have just easily said to the host "dont sub me out being inactive is my strategy" and knowing the host it would actually work. This is antitown and antigame, and I don't know why you guys just don't realize that he's choosing to be inactive instead of actuslly being inactive. And in the past he has shown he wasn't inactive, in Day 1, and suddenly making one completely useless post near the middle when jumpluff subbed in. Do you honestly think that if acidphoenix is town, he would do this? In all the games that I have spectated, never once has a town member shown this antitown behavior; only scum. He is just lazy, bandwagonning on the first opporunity that he sees (first three pages of the game). We all know tthat the instant he gets back from his "inactivity", which was obviously ecause of him being suspected (he wasn't suspected Day 1 and was thus active), he's going to vote me and just leave again. Sorry about any spelling errors, I'm on my phone and I'm extrely frustrated by the fact that people think he can be a possible town member (there's literally only one reason).
 
Err, I said that it was obvious because you already mentioned it being obvious: if acidphoenix is town then one of you/rssp1/sunny004 (because I don't think a Yeti mafia/jumpluff village scenario is worth considering), which makes it less likely you are village. If he is mafia, then it makes it more likely you are village because I'm near certain UTO isn't on acidphoenix' team and so there would be little room for a Yeti/jumpluff team, so the only possibility remaining would be that you are UTO's partner. You already had said all of this previously and it's more or less purely a numbers thing, I felt obligated to say more or less that you had already gotten it and so posted one sentence about it just to indicate that I wasn't ignoring your previous post. I'm not sure where you got the idea that 'acidphoenix mafia = jumpluff mafia' and you appear to think I implied??? I said that him being town makes it more likely you are mafia and vice-versa due to the obvious numbers points which you had already acknowledged.

I acknowledged this as 'numerical', but I couldn't be sure until you actually explained it because you were focusing on 'partnertells'.

Speaking of which,

Unvote

so that we get more time for posts
 
I think I'm changing my mind a bit.
Unvote

Not really a reflection on UTO (I still think he's mafia) but I want to vote acidphoenix here because if he's village he isn't going to help us and if he's mafia then he's less likely to be nightkilled than UTO is. I don't see a scenario in which we win with a town acidphoenix who lives through this day, and if he is mafia we will have to take this plunge regardless to win.

That being said I'm also warming to a DLE lynch. I think that he is very dangerous if he is mafia in terms of planning out a route to victory and I also think that if he is village then jumpluff (who is almost certainly mafia if DLE is village) will be able to pretty much railroad him whenever if I die regardless of the other flips. I think it is very likely that choosing between DLE/jumpluff is a choice that will have to be made eventually, and I'd rather make it while there's still the tiniest of safety nets (in terms of potential for crossfire) rather than having the game hang in the balance. In other words, I don't want my believing jumpluff over DLE to lose the game.

So I ask Da Letter El to convince me that someone else is a stronger lynch target.

Obviously UTO is in favor of either or both of these; jumpluff you voted DLE previously and it seems to me as though your order of lynching is UTO>DLE>acidphoenix based on your posts, it's just you aren't putting as much pressure on DLE due to concerns about getting majority; is this accurate?

Actually fuck it Vote Da Letter El. I'll switch this to acidphoenix or UTO if needed for a majority but there's enough time left that I can at least propose this as a possibility and hopefully get DLE to actually respond and offer input/a vote.
 
UncleSam: acidphoenix is going to get subbed if he lives through this day. We can get majority on him if UTO and I switch because Celever already voted. We can't get majority on DLE. I am not concerned about DLE in the immediate.

Yes and no it's accurate. I feel more confident lynching DLE than UTO right now, and I think it's a strong lynch in terms of potential reward. However, we have two remarkably suspicious people that I have previously considered town that are digging their graves in this lynch and I am no longer sure I can numerically interchange you and him. I think acidphoenix and UTO are the safest lynches.

I don't want anyone to change their votes. There are already two votes on Da Letter El, and I'm willing to place mine. I think this is a very dangerous idea because we already barely squeezed a vote out of sunny and still haven't gotten one out of rssp1 (who are essentially filler players for me now that I cannot conclude either way are scum and town now, moreso sunny than rssp1), and we can't count on two more votes on DLE because the votes we got are the 'guaranteed' votes already.

Celever's choice to vote acidphoenix over U-Turn Out makes me think Celever is probably UTO's partner, though. The continued reinforcement of this connection reinforces both of them looking scummy as fuck, .:. I still feel UTO is a safe mafia target. But like I said I'd rather keep them around then acidphoenix.

So it's more like,

lynch satisfaction: DLE>acidphoenix>UTO=Celever (read receipt that you read Celever's wishy washy defensive nonsense that he threw at me purely because I suggested he was a lynch target and not any of the other times I asked for feedback, pls)
lynch safety: UTO>DLE=acidphoenix
most sensible target at this point in time: UTO>acidphoenix>>>>>DLE (Celever isn't even an option here sadly)
 
Celever's choice to vote acidphoenix over U-Turn Out makes me think Celever is probably UTO's partner, though. The continued reinforcement of this connection reinforces both of them looking scummy as fuck, .:. I still feel UTO is a safe mafia target. But like I said I'd rather keep them around then acidphoenix.
What connection do you speak of, exactly? I don't see a particularly big connection between me and UTO. I explained why I didn't vote for UTO: acid is lowest risk middling reward and DLE is highest risk highest reward. UTO is middling risk middling-low reward, so is clearly the worst option of my three viable scum targets.

lynch satisfaction: DLE>acidphoenix>UTO=Celever (read receipt that you read Celever's wishy washy defensive nonsense that he threw at me purely because I suggested he was a lynch target and not any of the other times I asked for feedback, pls)
I didn't reply purely because you suggested I was a good lynch target, I replied because I was necessitated to because of the deadline, ngl. Like you said, I guess I shy away from responding to experienced players like you >~~~>

And FTR I don't think a DLE lynch is by any means unfeasible. I will happily vote for him and I think it makes more sense to today than any other possible day (like US said, the somewhat likely crossfire happening tonight makes our lynch today a little less risky). It's high risk, sure, but definitely highest reward as mentioned before, so I would place my vote now if not for it putting things at L-1.
 
Don't flirt with me, Celever, I'm making a reads post.

Erm why is acidphoenix a much stronger lynch than DLE if he is of equal safety and lesser satisfaction?

Because acidphoenix is useless whereas DLE isn't and I'm not that scared of whatever DLE does tonight, only if the lynch falls off him and 2/3 (you, me, Yeti) die.
 
Sorry UncleSam so he knows I responded.

Anyway I guess I can do Celever the courtesy of responding since I've been trying to get him to all game. Its just I really wanna do my hw.

What connection do you speak of, exactly? I don't see a particularly big connection between me and UTO. I explained why I didn't vote for UTO: acid is lowest risk middling reward and DLE is highest risk highest reward. UTO is middling risk middling-low reward, so is clearly the worst option of my three viable scum targets.

You have to factor in majority though, which you certainly did because you dropped the rssp1 lynch. UTO was the only realistic lynch target at that point and you're intelligent enough to realise that. The connection I am gonna post about in my reads post, I just really really need to get that done. But I already obliquely referred to the implicit shielding by choosing not to UTOwagon and instead lynching acidphoenix (who had no votes on them). UTO is also a far more rewarding flip than acidphoenix, I'm not sure if you're just copypasting Sam's ideas here or what. Literally the only thing that suggests you aren't UTO's partner (because no, I don't think yelling at UTO for two posts then abruptly voting for someone else counts as anything but distancing) is that you were willing to let UTO be lynched, and then again, that rssp1 play tho + the acidphoenix lynch.

I didn't reply purely because you suggested I was a good lynch target, I replied because I was necessitated to because of the deadline, ngl. Like you said, I guess I shy away from responding to experienced players like you >~~~>

There are four of us in this game. Me, DLE, Yeti, UncleSam. I'm the only one you've really consistently ignored. Two of those players will probably be alive tomorrow. What are you gonna do then? Don't buy this. This is evasiveness. If you know you do it, well, willpower through it? And no, you have a consistent pattern of only responding whenever you're under my radar (I have like 20 posts about you and none of them got responded to except where my lynch focus wasn't on someone else), and it seems possible that I will attempt to start a lynch against you. You know that the correct time to argue with me was well before the deadline, but you were scared of scumtelling against me. All I can conclude.
 
You have to factor in majority though, which you certainly did because you dropped the rssp1 lynch. UTO was the only realistic lynch target at that point and you're intelligent enough to realise that. The connection I am gonna post about in my reads post, I just really really need to get that done. But I already obliquely referred to the implicit shielding by choosing not to UTOwagon and instead lynching acidphoenix (who had no votes on them). UTO is also a far more rewarding flip than acidphoenix, I'm not sure if you're just copypasting Sam's ideas here or what. Literally the only thing that suggests you aren't UTO's partner (because no, I don't think yelling at UTO for two posts then abruptly voting for someone else counts as anything but distancing) is that you were willing to let UTO be lynched, and then again, that rssp1 play tho + the acidphoenix lynch.
Yes, but:
I want you to vote the person you feel has the highest chance of being mafia, independent of what anyone else thinks. I also want you to be available before deadline tomorrow to change that vote in case the person you voted for isn't getting majority.
I voted for the person I felt was the best lynch option. We still have over a day left, so there was clearly enough time to get a lynch sorted out. I just didn't think that Ultras was at all the best lynch today. acid is lowest risk and DLE is highest reward, and the odds are stacked up too much against us to go for the middleman IMO.

Also I'll respond to your theory about a connection between me and UTO in your reads post when it's more finalised. UTO and me being partners might be a feasible theory if you were sure we are both mafia, but you were townreading me until quite recently, so IDRGI. The connection definitely isn't strong enough to make you think I'm mafia because of it, and I don't think it's a particularly strong connection regardless.
There are four of us in this game. Me, DLE, Yeti, UncleSam. I'm the only one you've really consistently ignored. Two of those players will probably be alive tomorrow. What are you gonna do then? Don't buy this. This is evasiveness. If you know you do it, well, willpower through it? And no, you have a consistent pattern of only responding whenever you're under my radar (I have like 20 posts about you and none of them got responded to except where my lynch focus wasn't on someone else), and it seems possible that I will attempt to start a lynch against you. You know that the correct time to argue with me was well before the deadline, but you were scared of scumtelling against me. All I can conclude.
I guess I'm more comfortable responding to the other three since I've played with them more. Admittedly not NOC for Yeti and UncleSam, but hey. I play with DLE quite often when we've got similar goals in mind in OC and admittedly I usually butt heads with US in OC (which I have been trying to get better at because oftentimes I'm wrong) so I just feel more comfortable with them I guess. I don't play with you very often so it's scarier responding to you >___>.

And I wasn't really aware that I did it before you pointed it out. And look, I'm responding to you now! :p
 
Reads Post, ignoring DLE/UTO/acidphoenix for the moment so I can go do my homework

~Reads Post Special Part One~

Feel free to consult my earlier posts with the search tool for more step-by-step breakdowns of people.

Strong Town

jumpluff - I could write an essay on why I'm obviously town and the only sensible lynches on me are predicated on the inconsistent play of my numerous proposed partners or Yeti, a clearly town player, being mafia at the same time as me, a clearly town player, being mafia, but instead I wrote a sentence about it.

Yeti - Yeti is most inferably town from her clear level of contribution, thought-out but steady play, and willingness to scrutinise everyone. I point out that Yeti's alliance is related to mine in this way: Yeti's alliance is independent of mine, whereas if she is scum I must 100% logically be her partner. She is not. That is all.

UncleSam - UncleSam is the strong town I am least sure of, by default obviously, but I am sure enough of him to rank him up here. As I stated before, the only reason I could see for US to play the way he did prior to me subbing in is perfectionism. All concerning behaviour I saw from Sam I would also characterise not as a scumtell but a partnertell using extrapolation. The only partners I could see him shielding are Da Letter El and Celever (by pushing a U-Turn Out or acidphoenix lynch) and rssp1 (by straight-up buddying), but the rssp1 shit is so muddied on rssp1's end that I can't judge Sam too harshly for it (it'd be p hypocritical since I'm being judged for similar kinds of play), and I believe his play with regard to rssp1 is sincere, for whatever means that ends. The only other concern is the excessive control of the lynch, but that is as much a reflection of the laziness of all players not named Yeti or jumpluff in this game as it is UncleSam's control fetish.

It is worth noting that Sam has made many posts that have guided the village towards risky play (and Yeti, the only person I think who would call him on this right now, is afk). They have been well-reasoned and I agree with the strategy, so I have supported it. But the specific risks Sam wants us to take today and the specific lynch he has been thinking about suit the scum very well. However, I believe that there are two players in this game (Sam or DLE) who would intentionally lynch the other mafia today, and while UTO/acidphoenix is a possible team, his willingness to focus on both and lack of relentlessness onto UTO is more consistent with the previously expressed town motive of milking UTO for as much information as possible (which I was fine with, because UTO was playing evasively). His pressure has not been unfair onto UTO (compare and contrast Celever's and Da Letter El's, which is why I defended UTO from them). I do not see that Sam has been a bully at all; in fact, he has been remarkably gentle (for his standards) this game. Compare to my play, which has been uncharacteristically aggressive (due to being sleep deprived mostly, but dealing with inactive players which I am known to flip over). Which suggests to me two things, frustration!inactivity (which we know) and the genuine slight uncertainty that comes from a town Sam who does not have full information on everyone. Therefore I have constantly concluded Sam is town, but I would like, as one of the few posters in this game who is ever going to be willing to yell at Sam, to draw attention to these behaviours. The last small detail is that Sam's logic about overthinking acidphoenix and lynching U-Turn Out works in reverse (overthinking U-Turn Out and lynching acidphoenix), and I am surprised he is unwilling to commit beyond '50/50' on acidphoenix merely because I exist or something.

I guess the main thing I would want people to consider in a situation where Sam is numerically likely to be scum (DLE flips town and especially if U-Turn Out flips town, not that we're ever going to get that to happen) is the phases of Sam's activity juxtaposed with the lynch as a possible push of an agenda (the mafia want us to hit majority too, but they want us to hit their opposite mafia or one of our own). I would also want the village to reread Yeti's posts about UncleSam. Focus not on his internal logic but the numbers of the game and who stands to gain what, and this goes for everyone really.

Ambivalent (literally we gotta make up the numbers somehow type reads, and I'm starting to suspect both of them, which hinges on my scumreads being wrong)

sunny004 (Unclear, Increasingly Scummy) - I read PokeguyNXB as town (search my posts for where I posted conclusively on PGNXB) because Pokeguy was doing the flail thing but was willing to sub out of this game. This does not mean anything concrete, it is a meta read because PokeguyNXB came across as very sincerely confused and attempting to contribute but literally not knowing how. He was inactive but not more inactive than he usually is, when he was active he was stalling but also trying to figure out what to do. Eventually he subbed, analysis on subbing can be found in the acidphoenix read. This read is also based on likelihood, in that we are dealing with a number of unreadable inactives but must assign some kind of analysis to. However, sunny004, whose metas I do not know, has come across as scummy to me. sunny tried harder to get subbed into this game than to play it, which suggests to me sunny is trying to cruise as scum or has given up (but he has to have known he had a good chance of subbing in as town, so I don't buy this excuse that he gave up from the start).

He stalled uselessly as Yeti pointed out, posted TWO scumreads (on UltrasPlot/rssp1 and Da Letter El) with explicitly no reasoning (seriously, I agree with Sam that if you cannot find at least 3-4 people in this game scummy, you're doing it wrong, and almost certainly trying to avoid implicating someone), and has since done nothing except make that shitpost earlier which clearly indicated presence but refusal to vote, post thoughts, or take the absence of majority seriously. This is unambiguously antitown behaviour and I do not know whether to expect better from sunny004, but how I judge sunny will very strongly depend on future play (and I do not even care so much if sunny plays lazy, as long as sunny plays town, I do not expect tl;drs from everyone). There are many comparisons to be drawn between sunny's behaviour and rssp1's and I think sunny's is in bad faith.

However, I infer from sunny having some kind of reputation around here that they at least know they must least try to be perceived a particular way. The partner may have requested Pokeguy/sunny throw themselves under the bus today to ensure their survival (in which case it is 100% DLE or UncleSam), or sunny is trying to skate by knowing they are just not the likeliest lynch target since they subbed in. Consistent with this play: voting when told (helpful, but slightly defensive because of wagon behaviour). The complete absence of effort and complete absence of defensiveness surprises me. rssp1 is doing the exact same shit. So, I don't know, while that strikes me as (unhelpful) town play, I cannot clearly say.

I am operating under the idea that sunny is town right now (me/Yeti/Sam/sunny/rssp1 as town) but it is a flimsier part of my scenario.

I believe sunny could be the partner of any of the following people, in descending order of likeliness: U-Turn Out (favoured scenario because of the scumread onto DLE and reluctance to vote while the only plausible options were UTO and probable other scum -- I do not suspect a mafia sunny of attempting to lynch the other mafia), Celever (Celever's buddying + them being the ones that want to lynch rssp1 with no real logic), Sam (unlikely since Sam is probs town, esp if sunny is mafia, but is an alternative to DLE and supported by the UltrasPlot scumread), and acidphoenix (total wildcard scenario, only if they killed ButteredToast tho).

I would like to see sunny's read posts, and I will make commentary on it if given the chance.

rssp1 (Unclear): I don't totally agree with Sam that the aggressive attacks on him are necessarily indicator they aren't allied (precisely because they began so early on), but I do concede the point that is weakened by successive subbing, and they could also be someone else's strategy. I didn't like how many people assumed TIK was town based off garbage play, but I've already discussed how a lot of that is just TIK bravado + noobtown central with a few better players (DLE) latching onto it very suspiciously. UltrasPlot I also did not see as a good faith contributor, but not in a remarkable way. My central theses would be these:
  • If TIK is mafia, bussing UncleSam so early on (especially since TIK seemed taken aback by how far that train managed to drag itself) would seem to TIK a very clever gambit (I am gonna be real pedantic here and point out the line 'I'll literally eat a shoe if I'm wrong' or whatever it was, which is obviously a joke and par for the course for TIK's usual gut play but LOL Wouldn't it Be Funny if TIK Was Sam's Partner and Therefore Knew Sam Was Mafia, would be a plausibly ambitious distancing gambit). I am not sure why TIK subbed out but I conclude he got bored of it like every other game he has ever attempted to play in here (sorry, I'm snippy today). That does not then explain why UltrasPlot continued to go after Sam tho because I doubt he was privy to TIK's little joke. This doesn't even require Sam to be TIK's partner or even mafia, btw, it'd just be more specific if he was (TIK always likes to play the 'for the people' role that then get bored of it real fast, we all know Sam's predilections and he was making himself a bullseye target for that kind of stuff)
  • UltrasPlot makes the ominous comment that if Haunted Diamond is a mislynch, UncleSam and (whoever it was, Celever? sorry, lazy) must answer for it. It was a mislynch, UP then immediately posts as the day starts that they should answer for it, zero reaction to the kills (the Spiffy kill was quite remarkable for the majority of players at the time) or anything, extremely static play that suggested foresight, then began aggressively pursuing Sam while skating by on minimal activity. I simply did not see the real effort to contribute that Sam has pointed out, but am willing to consider specific posts. What specifically concerned me about this was UltrasPlot was aggressively participating in the lynch at the time (read these five short posts in order to see why I think this thought trajectory is scummy: #326, #334, #344, #359, #387). If you know you and yourself are scum and you see your scum partner pushing a lynch you can presume it's probably not an opposing mafia, especially Day 1
  • Agenda being pushed, no reaction to new information (this pattern of behaviour was broken by rssp1)
  • Supported Gale's absurd proposition to let the newbies lead the lynch 'for obvious reasons' (literally I do not know what these are lol, he himself pointed out after the last post I linked that we were in pseudo-lylo)
  • Buddying with Da Letter El: UltrasPlot continued to read DLE as town for no apparent reason which made no sense for someone who thought Sam and Celever were mafia (IMO, since he didn't bother to post reasons, I can only imagine what they were, and I can't think of any consistent towntell DLE dropped that neither Sam nor Celever exhibited), TIK and DLE buddied each other very aggressively (DLE was the initiator in that scenario where he decided to crawl up to TIK, then continue to defend UltrasPlot), in constant oppositional stance to Sam and Celever which is probably necessary if you're going to claim DLE is town. If rssp1 is mafia and/or acidphoenix is town, looook at DLE pls and ty.
  • Proposed at one point to, and I quote,
    Who were townie-ish or would have at least thought themselves townie? UncleSam, Celever (iffy), Cancerous, Yeti, Walrein. I believe we should lynch from those five.
    based on the WIFOM of the ButteredToast kill. Atrocious suggestion, had iffy on Celever (their favourite scumread, tho I think I misread this post and it was intended as Celever was an iffy option for the profile of 'a townie-looking player' rather than Celever is an iffy lynch), even considered lynching Yeti (initial townread, and consensus considered town, theres just no good rationale for considering a lynch on Yeti at any point during Day 2).
Now I am going to counter-argue:
  • Ignoring the TIK thing, that was a counterargument in itself so no point countercounterarguing it
  • UltrasPlot has experience in PS! mafia and probably knows D1 lynches rarely go well. Was right to honestly express hesitance, and didn't bullrush the lynch. Majority needed to be placed so the game could continue. Was correct to accuse Sam and Celever
  • Oppositional stance to Sam and Celever preceded the numerical scenario where they are mafia if UP and DLE are town, UP couldn't know Gale was going to get godkilled (did any of us, lol)
  • You could interpret the 5 lynches as not all equal, since UltrasPlot never bothered to tier them. I don't think UP would have seriously considered the Yeti lynch unless Yeti did something really odd, and their two scumreads were in that lynch pile. This is at least one of the few contributions anyone bothered to make before I subbed in with regard to the lynch.
rssp1 is not behaving in a remotely townish way now by refusing to vote (and demanding I do the math for them over and over again), but it is at least transparently honest. Dangerously transparently honest. I am not sure if they are actually trying to obstruct majority. I can see this play as plausible because we've all made the case rather clearly why majority is so imperative for us. Nonetheless, since they subbed into the game they kept trying to contribute in what I see as good faith. What is remarkable is their obstinacy on DLE and UTO, but its not a real partnertell. I already laid out before why it is remarkable that from the PoV rssp1 has to be one of the town and yet they can only muster a few reads, most of which are 'US and jumpluff and Yeti are suspicious because they look so good, sorta like how poisonous animals have colourful skin' type arguments or 'I can't infer shit from DLE OR UTO's posts', which is really really remarkable (but possibly justifiable in that UTO's posts have been placid and mostly reasonable/ostensibly reasonable), mostly it is remarkable that one can see both of these diametrically opposed players and cannot get anything from their arguing. So is rssp1 posting from the intuitive idea they are town? Not sure. Additionally, the majority of rssp1's posts have been the opposite of UltrasPlot's: meta posts, refusals to vote, commentary about reading through the thread, etc. However, the primary point in rssp1's favour on their own is that all their contributions have been novel and attempted to supply a modicum of reasoning. This suggests rssp1 IS actually thinking out through the game. But they could also be trying to blend in, and I will not pretend I am sure about this read so I will supply all reasoning, even where it is contradictory.

#728 is the most interesting post to me, it links back to an attempt of theirs to talk about the kills as well. Fucking wishy washy about acidphoenix 'too easy of a lynch' but at least the logic gets applied to Sam/Yeti/me ('too easy of a town', lol). Did at least consider both scenarios (my theory that acidphoenix was intentionally being inactive to skate by as mafia, his theory that scum shouldn't Play That Way, which might carry minor weight sinc erssp1 probably knows acid's metas). Thinks Celever was town off a weak argument IMO, I'd point it out too if I were scum and noticed it, it's not like Celever thought he could get majority off that vote and it makes him look better to point it out (and it's just generally fair play tbh). However, the lack of defensiveness/'omgus' or whatever ppl call it strikes me as fairly reasoned.

What really is remarkable about that post however is the insistence PGNXB is scum for the exact reason acidphoenix is, but willingness to commit to it because of someone he reads as town (US):

That along with the fact that Pokeguy was doing something similar to acidphoenix (not really posting much, complaining due to his restrictive guidelines, etc) - although pokeguy did get subbed - makes me think he's scummy.

jumpluff said:
Ironically I have been increasingly suspecting rssp1 since they subbed in, but the complete apathy towards DLE and UTO, who are the only likely lynch candidates aside from themselves (and maybe acidphoenix, who they didn't reiterate the lynch vote on in an overly defensive manner post-Celever snap), seems like an excessively risky noobtownishness to me. The only other alternative would be that they are partners, but since the scums are 2/2 then that doesn't explain why rssp1 didn't pick one and lynch them. If anyone disagrees with my interpretation of the thinking behind this behaviour I'd like to hear it.

^^ my own reasoning

So basically I have reconsidered my thoughts about UltrasPlot and while not all of it sits easy with me, I think that's a decent place to start.

If rssp1 is scum, I think their likeliest partners are Da Letter El (UncleSam in the case DLE somehow flips town), acidphoenix, U-Turn Out in descending order of likeliness. Whatcha gonna do when all three are up for lynch?

Scum

Celever (Oscillating Scum): Celever's main case for him being town is him being active. Well, he's not doing a very good job of being consistently active. Look at all my posts mentioning Celever, they have been nothing but prodding. Again, for all the posts he made, few were really useful. He was only really nominally active before I subbed in, which is neither town nor scum because while contributing to the game is town, fake contributing is scum, and there was a strong motive for scum to be active at that phase in the game to avoid getting rolled (especially important in Celever's case) as well as to push the lynch in a favourable direction. (Celever could not know Gale would get godkilled, he had strong incentive to mislynch at that point, but not to be overly aggressive because it would get himself lynched instead). He has 89 posts in this thread, about 20 of which were made today! Tell me seriously, what has Celever actually contributed in Day 2? For comparison, I subbed in in the middle of Day 2 and and have 55 posts. From the start, UncleSam has 124 and most of them have been clear and useful, with very little shitposting or metacommentary (half of mine are to amend my posts). Yeti has 70. Hell, DLE has 63 somehow. A lot of Celever's posts were yelling at inactives, going back and forth with Gale Wing Srock, and generally cluttering up the thread. If you're gonna clutter, Celever, at least actually put info in there.

Now another thing Celever did that I really really hated was buddying PokeguyNXB and then sunny004 (#726, #712 which also implicates him further as UTO's partner, We have already established he was buddying UncleSam, I don't need to make that argument again. If I see a player buddying a couple of people, bullying (to their own admission) players with equal or lesser experience than them, and shying away from more experienced players who want to argue with them, I'm gonna call that an evasive, deflective playstyle. Does anyone seriously disagree with me that Celever has played this way? Yes, he's been confrontational, but have those arguments actually established anything? Everyone called the Gale argument useless at the time and I called out the UTO argument as intensely hypocritical, because, and I paraphrase, 'I focus more on long-term patterns than specific posts', followed by back and forth bickering over minutiae with UTO, FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT AND STILL UNSUSBTANTIATED LYNCH ON RSSP1 (he keeps posting 'still the scummiest player in the game' with zero attempt to convince anyone else or even really explain it). This is especially questionable, 'townies can't have that much certainty about anything' when Celever also claims to have relentlessly pursued the rssp1 lynch. That all looks like distancing to me, tbh. Celever has repeatedly refused to post any reasoning about anything while playing coy with me and I'm calling that shit exactly how I see it ('you want me to make a reads post? what a hassle' etc.) The reasoning on the rssp1 lynch was
I actually think that UltrasPlot is trying to imitate Gale, because he saw that Gale got away with it, and he wants to skate by by not contributing. I haven't seen him say ONE original thing, and much of what he says seems to literally be parroting Gale's thoughts. Because of this, Lynch UltrasPlot. I want to see some original thoughts from you about the topics today
. Since then, Gale has flipped town and UltrasPlot has been subbed for rssp1, who, as I commented, has actually had novel thoughts, although the skate-by playstyle is still there (as it is for many players in this game, incl. Celever who is on the defensive). This is possibly a defensive deflection but it also does not react to information at all and so the constant 'I ALREADY SAID WHY I WNATED TO LYNCH RSSP1' doesnt apply anymore.

However I just couldn't get a read on him because I wasn't sure how he fit into the game and because there's a possibility he's just playing questionably pending any shocks with my townreads, because some of this behaviour could be reinterpreted as coward town behaviour in good faith, but, like, someone has to be scum and Celever has the least excuses available. I think Celever is a better player than that now. And I cannot see his insistence of selling himself as a newbie (ffs, Celever, you've been playing for longer than most people in this forum) as anything but scum trying to get underestimated. See all the 'I just can't argue with you, jumpluff-senpai' shit (I've made 20 posts mentioning Celever, literally), the buddying UncleSam, hesitance to engage with the others, my post here #810 as well. It's honest, but admitting you have a problem is only the first step.

Just go read my posts about Celever and check which questions of mine he didn't answer, seriously.

Now the reason I think UTO and he are partners has already been outlined (townreads followed by aggression as the lynch moved onto UTO followed by an attempt to redirect it), combined with total non-interaction with Walrein (excepting a cursory 'thoughts please? #221), combined with this
If I had to say one kill target it'd be Walrein. He's generally thought of as town, especially yesterday, but at the same time he hadn't actually said much, and there were few very concrete reads. I guess ButteredToast fits under this too, but Walrein came to mind first.

and this from UncleSam:

I'm surprised that you wouldn't have considered a DLE or UncleSam kill Celever, and I'm not sure I buy that you'd kill Walrein or ButteredToast. Similarly, I'm not sure I buy that you wouldn't kill Spiffy either.

I thought this reads post was ok though but I haven't substantively scrutinised it, just dumping it here #469.

Celever's potential partners: U-Turn Out, sunny004, Da Letter El.

Now I'm going to post this and leave it, because I want to go back to UTO/DLE/acidphoenix but I have nothing very new to say about them and I believe my positions have been well-articulated about them and are very easy to find in all of my posts. Specifically, I wrote an entire takedown of Walrein and have since responded to most of UTO's posts as they arose. However, I have homework due tonight, which is before the deadline. So I want to get this out no matter what.
 
I will vote for 1. DLE 2. Acid phoenix

I am watching this when I get a hot minute just not logged in or able to post much

If you lynch one of these two people you have my axe
 
Okay... so we should lynch Da Letter El then imo. Unless UncleSam has changed his mind again while he sleeps.

We have 2 votes on him so any vote I place is L-2 so I will wait for our final voter to set L-2, and for DLE to have one last chance to defend himself. Celever rssp1 sunny004 how do you feel about this lynch vs. the acidphoenix lynch (vs. the U-Turn Out lynch)? You can express your feelings with your votes.
 
I'm still actually reading all of the arguments to lynch DLE/UTO, and i'm still not going to lynch acid unless tdg refuses to sub him.
Yes i know you all hate these noncontent posts but i'm just letting you know what i'm doing so you don't get mad at me for "lurking"
 
Okay... so we should lynch Da Letter El then imo. Unless UncleSam has changed his mind again while he sleeps.

We have 2 votes on him so any vote I place is L-2 so I will wait for our final voter to set L-2, and for DLE to have one last chance to defend himself. Celever rssp1 sunny004 how do you feel about this lynch vs. the acidphoenix lynch (vs. the U-Turn Out lynch)? You can express your feelings with your votes.
I already expressed my thoughts on the lynch targets. DLE is high risk high reward, acid is low risk middling reward and UTO is middling risk low-middling reward. I also expressed total willingness to vote for DLE earlier. I'm going to go ahead and Unvote Lynch Da Letter El to put him at L-2. No one quick hammer or anything please >___>.

I'll reply to your reads post at some point in the future jumpluff. I'm traveling all day today and am getting ready to leave now. Not convenient timing at all, but I'll probably get back 6ish hours before deadline. I'll see if I can share a couple more thoughts on posts before we leave in 2ish hours.
 
Deadline is in seven hours so I think this is either going to stick or we all have to emergency switch to someone.

sunny004 and rssp1 I am monitoring your activity and if you view this thread without either voting or indicating that you absolutely 100% will within a few hours (NOT right before deadline but I'm willing to give people until 5 PM to finalize things barring a massive DLE post) then I'll just assume you are mafia. Similarly if you don't vote by 5 PM for any reason then I will probably assume the same.

Time for me as of now is 1 PM.
 
Alright cool I have one thing for both DLE and UTO that makes me think they're scummy
Given, I think acid is scummier and the things i picked up on the other two are weak af but i'm going to say them anyways

alright, DLE posted saying that he would be busy until Sunday and he still hasn't shown up (given its still early in the day on Monday, but I thought its worth pointing out) and he was apparently paying attention to the thread since he posted that one funny gif when this game was getting hijacked
UTO's vote on DLE seems excessively bandwagony - I mean yeah, you can say that he had some reasoning there but I don't like how he's pushing on acid without actually trying super hard to convince other people to lynch him - he's mostly defending himself and even going after Celever a little bit.
I've already explained where I stand on acid and the only valid reason I don't have for lynching him (I didn't realize that deadline is in 7hr so that invalidates my point of "i'm not gonna lynch him until he gets subbed!" because there wouldn't actually be time to read acidphoenix's sub's posts, if there are any) is that the lynch seems too easy, and that's the weakest reasoning against any of the five i'm at the least partially scumreading (there was that like one thing against pokeguy/sunny and US but that's pretty shit reasoning and it could just be town defending town or town defending scum or scum defending town I have no idea)....
sooooo
lynch acidphoenix

yeah i know you guys want me to lynch dle or uto but i think acid is a stronger scumread than those two given that after rereading all the arguments twice what I said is really the only thing I can think of that implicates them as scum.

Also i'm almost 100% certain jumpluff is town, I had momentarily forgotten that s/he subbed in for Cancerous who I was strong townreading just based on play
and then Yeti and partially US i'm nullreading (not scumreading like you're all assuming, smh) because they both seem to be playing very pro-town but i'm just generally untrustworthy of that playstyle because i've seen maf replicate it
 
rssp1 we don't have the time to get a new lynch onto acidphoenix I don't think; you HAVE to vote for the majority candidate prior to deadline, that should go without saying. Indicate to me that you will be online before then (4.5 hours from now) and will change vote if necessary and I will accept this for now.

jumpluff Celever sunny004 Da Letter El U-Turn Out Yeti acidphoenix post now with final thoughts and post a final vote. I will be available (and hopefully jumpluff and Celever will be as well?) to make sure we get majority but EVERYONE has to post a vote for someone, and I need the more active/town players to be ready to change on a dime later. Failure to get majority on someone because 'I'm not scum reading them as strongly' is NOT acceptable, and frankly rssp1 is painting himself as DLE's partner with that post. Someone should hammer the DLE lynch though in my opinion, and if people don't vote for him come 2.5 hours from now (2 hours out of majority) OR try to drum up a real majority against someone else then I'm going to assume they are mafia.
 
fine, if its absolutely necessary I will change my vote, I will be checking smogon but just in case i forget just post in-thread and i'll see the alert and switch votes right before deadline.
honestly, just saying i'm painting myself as DLE's partner just because I don't agree with the majority opinion is stupid, but I have no way to stop you from believing that so go ahead I guess.
 
No, it is not 'stupid'. We are four hours out from deadline and you're basically throwing your vote away; you aren't even particularly trying to get everyone to vote acidhoenix either! There's no mass-alert there, there's no 'guys can we please get majority on X instead of Y?', there's just a routine post with a begrudging vote at the end because of how late in the day it is.

Maybe you simply don't understand the urgency, but we HAVE to get majority on someone. Failing to do so because it 'isn't the ideal candidate' or whatever is bullshit and is horrible for the village. I will absolutely be sending an alert your way in a few hours unless everyone else decides to switch to acidphoenix...in which case I will probably still send an alert your way anyway.

Going to say this as clearly and succinctly as possible:
We must hit majority on someone. Failure to do so is basically equivalent to giving up. People who are not willing to hit majority are guaranteed mafia.
 
Alright, fair enough.
I guess what I did is the equivalent of what I called UTO for then.
If it is absolutely necessary I will switch to DLE, meaning I will be watching the thread... i might be going out at 5 (4 hours from now) so i'll switch my vote 3.5 hours from this post.
I would indeed prefer an acidphoenix lynch over DLE though, just in case you guys are willing to consider that.
 
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