Reads Post, ignoring DLE/UTO/acidphoenix for the moment so I can go do my homework
~Reads Post Special Part One~
Feel free to consult my earlier posts with the search tool for more step-by-step breakdowns of people.
Strong Town
jumpluff - I could write an essay on why I'm obviously town and the only sensible lynches on me are predicated on the inconsistent play of my numerous proposed partners or Yeti, a clearly town player, being mafia
at the same time as me, a clearly town player, being mafia, but instead I wrote a sentence about it.
Yeti - Yeti is most inferably town from her clear level of contribution, thought-out but steady play, and willingness to scrutinise everyone. I point out that Yeti's alliance is related to mine in this way: Yeti's alliance is independent of mine, whereas if she is scum I must 100% logically be her partner. She is not. That is all.
UncleSam - UncleSam is the strong town I am least sure of, by default obviously, but I am sure enough of him to rank him up here. As I stated before, the only reason I could see for US to play the way he did prior to me subbing in is perfectionism. All concerning behaviour I saw from Sam I would also characterise not as a scumtell but a partnertell using extrapolation. The only partners I could see him shielding are Da Letter El and Celever (by pushing a U-Turn Out or acidphoenix lynch) and rssp1 (by straight-up buddying), but the rssp1 shit is so muddied on rssp1's end that I can't judge Sam too harshly for it (it'd be p hypocritical since I'm being judged for similar kinds of play), and I believe his play with regard to rssp1 is sincere, for whatever means that ends. The only other concern is the excessive control of the lynch, but that is as much a reflection of the laziness of all players not named Yeti or jumpluff in this game as it is UncleSam's control fetish.
It is worth noting that Sam has made many posts that have guided the village towards risky play (and Yeti, the only person I think who would call him on this right now, is afk). They have been well-reasoned and I agree with the strategy, so I have supported it. But the specific risks Sam wants us to take today and the specific lynch he has been thinking about suit the scum very well. However, I believe that there are two players in this game (Sam or DLE) who would intentionally lynch the other mafia today, and while UTO/acidphoenix is a possible team, his willingness to focus on both and lack of relentlessness onto UTO is more consistent with the previously expressed town motive of milking UTO for as much information as possible (which I was fine with, because UTO was playing evasively). His pressure has not been unfair onto UTO (compare and contrast Celever's and Da Letter El's, which is why I defended UTO from them). I do not see that Sam has been a bully at all; in fact, he has been remarkably gentle (for his standards) this game. Compare to my play, which has been uncharacteristically aggressive (due to being sleep deprived mostly, but dealing with inactive players which I am known to flip over). Which suggests to me two things, frustration!inactivity (which we know) and the genuine slight uncertainty that comes from a town Sam who does not have full information on everyone. Therefore I have constantly concluded Sam is town, but I would like, as one of the few posters in this game who is ever going to be willing to yell at Sam, to draw attention to these behaviours. The last small detail is that Sam's logic about overthinking acidphoenix and lynching U-Turn Out works in reverse (overthinking U-Turn Out and lynching acidphoenix), and I am surprised he is unwilling to commit beyond '50/50' on acidphoenix merely because I exist or something.
I guess the main thing I would want people to consider in a situation where Sam is numerically likely to be scum (DLE flips town and especially if U-Turn Out flips town, not that we're ever going to get that to happen) is the phases of Sam's activity juxtaposed with the lynch as a possible push of an agenda (the mafia want us to hit majority too, but they want us to hit their opposite mafia or one of our own). I would also want the village to reread Yeti's posts about UncleSam. Focus not on his internal logic but the numbers of the game and who stands to gain what, and this goes for everyone really.
Ambivalent (literally we gotta make up the numbers somehow type reads, and I'm starting to suspect both of them, which hinges on my scumreads being wrong)
sunny004 (Unclear, Increasingly Scummy) - I read PokeguyNXB as town (search my posts for where I posted conclusively on PGNXB) because Pokeguy was doing the flail thing but was willing to sub out of this game. This does not mean anything concrete, it is a meta read because PokeguyNXB came across as very sincerely confused and attempting to contribute but literally not knowing how. He was inactive but not more inactive than he usually is, when he was active he was stalling but also trying to figure out what to do. Eventually he subbed, analysis on subbing can be found in the acidphoenix read. This read is also based on likelihood, in that we are dealing with a number of unreadable inactives but must assign some kind of analysis to. However, sunny004, whose metas I do not know, has come across as scummy to me. sunny tried harder to get subbed into this game than to play it, which suggests to me sunny is trying to cruise as scum or has given up (but he has to have known he had a good chance of subbing in as town, so I don't buy this excuse that he gave up from the start).
He stalled uselessly as Yeti pointed out, posted TWO scumreads (on UltrasPlot/rssp1 and Da Letter El) with explicitly no reasoning (seriously, I agree with Sam that if you cannot find at least 3-4 people in this game scummy, you're doing it wrong, and almost certainly trying to avoid implicating someone), and has since done nothing except make that shitpost earlier which clearly indicated presence but refusal to vote, post thoughts, or take the absence of majority seriously. This is unambiguously antitown behaviour and I do not know whether to expect better from sunny004, but how I judge sunny will very strongly depend on future play (and I do not even care so much if sunny plays lazy, as long as sunny plays town, I do not expect tl;drs from everyone). There are many comparisons to be drawn between sunny's behaviour and rssp1's and I think sunny's is in bad faith.
However, I infer from sunny having some kind of reputation around here that they at least know they must least try to be perceived a particular way. The partner may have requested Pokeguy/sunny throw themselves under the bus today to ensure their survival (in which case it is 100% DLE or UncleSam), or sunny is trying to skate by knowing they are just not the likeliest lynch target since they subbed in. Consistent with this play: voting when told (helpful, but slightly defensive because of wagon behaviour). The complete absence of effort and complete absence of defensiveness surprises me. rssp1 is doing the exact same shit. So, I don't know, while that strikes me as (unhelpful) town play, I cannot clearly say.
I am operating under the idea that sunny is town right now (me/Yeti/Sam/sunny/rssp1 as town) but it is a flimsier part of my scenario.
I believe sunny could be the partner of any of the following people, in descending order of likeliness: U-Turn Out (favoured scenario because of the scumread onto DLE and reluctance to vote while the only plausible options were UTO and probable other scum -- I do not suspect a mafia sunny of attempting to lynch the other mafia), Celever (Celever's buddying + them being the ones that want to lynch rssp1 with no real logic), Sam (unlikely since Sam is probs town, esp if sunny is mafia, but is an alternative to DLE and supported by the UltrasPlot scumread), and acidphoenix (total wildcard scenario, only if they killed ButteredToast tho).
I would like to see sunny's read posts, and I will make commentary on it if given the chance.
rssp1 (Unclear): I don't totally agree with Sam that the aggressive attacks on him are necessarily indicator they aren't allied (precisely
because they began so early on), but I do concede the point that is weakened by successive subbing, and they could also be someone else's strategy. I didn't like how many people assumed TIK was town based off garbage play, but I've already discussed how a lot of that is just TIK bravado + noobtown central with a few better players (DLE) latching onto it very suspiciously. UltrasPlot I also did not see as a good faith contributor, but not in a remarkable way. My central theses would be these:
- If TIK is mafia, bussing UncleSam so early on (especially since TIK seemed taken aback by how far that train managed to drag itself) would seem to TIK a very clever gambit (I am gonna be real pedantic here and point out the line 'I'll literally eat a shoe if I'm wrong' or whatever it was, which is obviously a joke and par for the course for TIK's usual gut play but LOL Wouldn't it Be Funny if TIK Was Sam's Partner and Therefore Knew Sam Was Mafia, would be a plausibly ambitious distancing gambit). I am not sure why TIK subbed out but I conclude he got bored of it like every other game he has ever attempted to play in here (sorry, I'm snippy today). That does not then explain why UltrasPlot continued to go after Sam tho because I doubt he was privy to TIK's little joke. This doesn't even require Sam to be TIK's partner or even mafia, btw, it'd just be more specific if he was (TIK always likes to play the 'for the people' role that then get bored of it real fast, we all know Sam's predilections and he was making himself a bullseye target for that kind of stuff)
- UltrasPlot makes the ominous comment that if Haunted Diamond is a mislynch, UncleSam and (whoever it was, Celever? sorry, lazy) must answer for it. It was a mislynch, UP then immediately posts as the day starts that they should answer for it, zero reaction to the kills (the Spiffy kill was quite remarkable for the majority of players at the time) or anything, extremely static play that suggested foresight, then began aggressively pursuing Sam while skating by on minimal activity. I simply did not see the real effort to contribute that Sam has pointed out, but am willing to consider specific posts. What specifically concerned me about this was UltrasPlot was aggressively participating in the lynch at the time (read these five short posts in order to see why I think this thought trajectory is scummy: #326, #334, #344, #359, #387). If you know you and yourself are scum and you see your scum partner pushing a lynch you can presume it's probably not an opposing mafia, especially Day 1
- Agenda being pushed, no reaction to new information (this pattern of behaviour was broken by rssp1)
- Supported Gale's absurd proposition to let the newbies lead the lynch 'for obvious reasons' (literally I do not know what these are lol, he himself pointed out after the last post I linked that we were in pseudo-lylo)
- Buddying with Da Letter El: UltrasPlot continued to read DLE as town for no apparent reason which made no sense for someone who thought Sam and Celever were mafia (IMO, since he didn't bother to post reasons, I can only imagine what they were, and I can't think of any consistent towntell DLE dropped that neither Sam nor Celever exhibited), TIK and DLE buddied each other very aggressively (DLE was the initiator in that scenario where he decided to crawl up to TIK, then continue to defend UltrasPlot), in constant oppositional stance to Sam and Celever which is probably necessary if you're going to claim DLE is town. If rssp1 is mafia and/or acidphoenix is town, looook at DLE pls and ty.
- Proposed at one point to, and I quote,
Who were townie-ish or would have at least thought themselves townie? UncleSam, Celever (iffy), Cancerous, Yeti, Walrein. I believe we should lynch from those five.
based on the WIFOM of the ButteredToast kill. Atrocious suggestion, had iffy on Celever (their favourite scumread, tho I think I misread this post and it was intended as Celever was an iffy option for the profile of 'a townie-looking player' rather than Celever is an iffy lynch), even considered lynching Yeti (initial townread, and consensus considered town, theres just no good rationale for considering a lynch on Yeti at any point during Day 2).
Now I am going to counter-argue:
- Ignoring the TIK thing, that was a counterargument in itself so no point countercounterarguing it
- UltrasPlot has experience in PS! mafia and probably knows D1 lynches rarely go well. Was right to honestly express hesitance, and didn't bullrush the lynch. Majority needed to be placed so the game could continue. Was correct to accuse Sam and Celever
- Oppositional stance to Sam and Celever preceded the numerical scenario where they are mafia if UP and DLE are town, UP couldn't know Gale was going to get godkilled (did any of us, lol)
- You could interpret the 5 lynches as not all equal, since UltrasPlot never bothered to tier them. I don't think UP would have seriously considered the Yeti lynch unless Yeti did something really odd, and their two scumreads were in that lynch pile. This is at least one of the few contributions anyone bothered to make before I subbed in with regard to the lynch.
rssp1 is not behaving in a remotely townish way now by refusing to vote (and demanding I do the math for them over and over again), but it is at least transparently honest. Dangerously transparently honest. I am not sure if they are actually trying to obstruct majority. I can see this play as plausible because we've all made the case rather clearly why majority is so imperative for us. Nonetheless, since they subbed into the game they kept trying to contribute in what I see as good faith. What is remarkable is their obstinacy on DLE and UTO, but its not a real partnertell. I already laid out before why it is remarkable that from the PoV rssp1 has to be one of the town and yet they can only muster a few reads, most of which are 'US and jumpluff and Yeti are suspicious because they look so good, sorta like how poisonous animals have colourful skin' type arguments or 'I can't infer shit from DLE OR UTO's posts', which is really really remarkable (but possibly justifiable in that UTO's posts have been placid and mostly reasonable/ostensibly reasonable), mostly it is remarkable that one can see both of these diametrically opposed players and cannot get anything from their arguing. So is rssp1 posting from the intuitive idea they are town? Not sure. Additionally, the majority of rssp1's posts have been the opposite of UltrasPlot's: meta posts, refusals to vote, commentary about reading through the thread, etc. However, the primary point in rssp1's favour on their own
is that all their contributions have been novel and attempted to supply a modicum of reasoning. This suggests rssp1 IS actually thinking out through the game. But they could also be trying to blend in, and I will not pretend I am sure about this read so I will supply all reasoning, even where it is contradictory.
#728 is the most interesting post to me, it links back to an attempt of theirs to talk about the kills as well. Fucking wishy washy about acidphoenix 'too easy of a lynch' but at least the logic gets applied to Sam/Yeti/me ('too easy of a town', lol). Did at least consider both scenarios (my theory that acidphoenix was intentionally being inactive to skate by as mafia, his theory that scum shouldn't Play That Way, which might carry minor weight sinc erssp1 probably knows acid's metas). Thinks Celever was town off a weak argument IMO, I'd point it out too if I were scum and noticed it, it's not like Celever thought he could get majority off that vote and it makes him look better to point it out (and it's just generally fair play tbh). However, the lack of defensiveness/'omgus' or whatever ppl call it strikes me as fairly reasoned.
What really is remarkable about that post however is the insistence PGNXB is scum for the exact reason acidphoenix is, but willingness to commit to it because of someone he reads as town (US):
That along with the fact that Pokeguy was doing something similar to acidphoenix (not really posting much, complaining due to his restrictive guidelines, etc) - although pokeguy did get subbed - makes me think he's scummy.
jumpluff said:
Ironically I have been increasingly suspecting rssp1 since they subbed in, but the complete apathy towards DLE and UTO, who are the only likely lynch candidates aside from themselves (and maybe acidphoenix, who they didn't reiterate the lynch vote on in an overly defensive manner post-Celever snap), seems like an excessively risky noobtownishness to me. The only other alternative would be that they are partners, but since the scums are 2/2 then that doesn't explain why rssp1 didn't pick one and lynch them. If anyone disagrees with my interpretation of the thinking behind this behaviour I'd like to hear it.
^^ my own reasoning
So basically I have reconsidered my thoughts about UltrasPlot and while not all of it sits easy with me, I think that's a decent place to start.
If rssp1 is scum, I think their likeliest partners are Da Letter El (UncleSam in the case DLE somehow flips town), acidphoenix, U-Turn Out in descending order of likeliness. Whatcha gonna do when all three are up for lynch?
Scum
Celever (Oscillating Scum): Celever's main case for him being town is him being active. Well, he's not doing a very good job of being consistently active. Look at all my posts mentioning Celever, they have been nothing but prodding. Again, for all the posts he made, few were really useful. He was only really nominally active before I subbed in, which is neither town nor scum because while contributing to the game is town, fake contributing is scum, and there was a strong motive for scum to be active at that phase in the game to avoid getting rolled (especially important in Celever's case) as well as to push the lynch in a favourable direction. (Celever could not know Gale would get godkilled, he had strong incentive to mislynch at that point, but not to be overly aggressive because it would get himself lynched instead). He has 89 posts in this thread, about 20 of which were made today! Tell me seriously, what has Celever actually contributed in Day 2? For comparison, I subbed in in the middle of Day 2 and and have 55 posts. From the start, UncleSam has 124 and most of them have been clear and useful, with very little shitposting or metacommentary (half of mine are to amend my posts). Yeti has 70. Hell, DLE has 63 somehow. A lot of Celever's posts were yelling at inactives, going back and forth with Gale Wing Srock, and generally cluttering up the thread. If you're gonna clutter, Celever, at least actually put info in there.
Now another thing Celever did that I really really hated was buddying PokeguyNXB and then sunny004 (
#726,
#712 which also implicates him further as UTO's partner, We have already established he was buddying UncleSam, I don't need to make that argument again. If I see a player buddying a couple of people, bullying (to their own admission) players with equal or lesser experience than them, and shying away from more experienced players who want to argue with them, I'm gonna call that an evasive, deflective playstyle. Does anyone seriously disagree with me that Celever has played this way? Yes, he's been confrontational, but have those arguments actually established anything? Everyone called the Gale argument useless at the time and I called out the UTO argument as intensely hypocritical, because, and I paraphrase, 'I focus more on long-term patterns than specific posts', followed by back and forth bickering over minutiae with UTO, FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT AND STILL UNSUSBTANTIATED LYNCH ON RSSP1 (he keeps posting 'still the scummiest player in the game' with zero attempt to convince anyone else or even really explain it).
This is especially questionable, 'townies can't have that much certainty about anything' when Celever also claims to have relentlessly pursued the rssp1 lynch. That all looks like distancing to me, tbh. Celever has repeatedly refused to post any reasoning about anything while playing coy with me and I'm calling that shit exactly how I see it ('you want me to make a reads post? what a hassle' etc.) The reasoning on the rssp1 lynch was
I actually think that UltrasPlot is trying to imitate Gale, because he saw that Gale got away with it, and he wants to skate by by not contributing. I haven't seen him say ONE original thing, and much of what he says seems to literally be parroting Gale's thoughts. Because of this, Lynch UltrasPlot. I want to see some original thoughts from you about the topics today
. Since then, Gale has flipped town and UltrasPlot has been subbed for rssp1, who, as I commented, has actually had novel thoughts, although the skate-by playstyle is still there (as it is for many players in this game, incl. Celever who is on the defensive). This is possibly a defensive deflection but it also does not react to information at all and so the constant 'I ALREADY SAID WHY I WNATED TO LYNCH RSSP1' doesnt apply anymore.
However I just couldn't get a read on him because I wasn't sure how he fit into the game and because there's a possibility he's just playing questionably pending any shocks with my townreads, because some of this behaviour could be reinterpreted as coward town behaviour in good faith, but, like, someone has to be scum and Celever has the least excuses available. I think Celever is a better player than that now. And I cannot see his insistence of selling himself as a newbie (ffs, Celever, you've been playing for longer than most people in this forum) as anything but scum trying to get underestimated. See all the 'I just can't argue with you, jumpluff-senpai' shit (I've made 20 posts mentioning Celever, literally), the buddying UncleSam, hesitance to engage with the others, my post here
#810 as well. It's honest, but admitting you have a problem is only the first step.
Just go read my posts about Celever and check which questions of mine he didn't answer, seriously.
Now the reason I think UTO and he are partners has already been outlined (townreads followed by aggression as the lynch moved onto UTO followed by an attempt to redirect it), combined with total non-interaction with Walrein (excepting a cursory 'thoughts please? #221), combined with this
If I had to say one kill target it'd be Walrein. He's generally thought of as town, especially yesterday, but at the same time he hadn't actually said much, and there were few very concrete reads. I guess ButteredToast fits under this too, but Walrein came to mind first.
and this from UncleSam:
I'm surprised that you wouldn't have considered a DLE or UncleSam kill Celever, and I'm not sure I buy that you'd kill Walrein or ButteredToast. Similarly, I'm not sure I buy that you wouldn't kill Spiffy either.
I thought this reads post was ok though but I haven't substantively scrutinised it, just dumping it here
#469.
Celever's potential partners: U-Turn Out, sunny004, Da Letter El.
Now I'm going to post this and leave it, because I want to go back to UTO/DLE/acidphoenix but I have nothing very new to say about them and I believe my positions have been well-articulated about them and are very easy to find in all of my posts. Specifically, I wrote an entire takedown of Walrein and have since responded to most of UTO's posts as they arose. However, I have homework due tonight, which is before the deadline. So I want to get this out no matter what.