NOC OC NOC GAME OVER - Now Despair

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This should be straightforward unless all the mafia are moling me, lynch out of the scum list and vig the rest, worst case scenario we kill four of our own+two mafia night kills and we're sitting at 7 left without hitting LYLO, best case scenario we kill all the remaining mafia, most likely we kill one or two mafia, lose a couple town and end up sitting at 6 or 7 town to 1 mafia to end game
 
Quoting for reference

Texas Cloverleaf said:
Let's do some research

lynch walrein: asek, cancerous, blank slate (3)

Counterwagon 1 (NOT VOTING): aubisio, whydon, knightsofcydonia, haruno, shubaka
Counterwagon 2a (Moody): vanillish, pancake, fort colorcastle
Countewagon 2b (Walrein): asek, cancerous, blank slate

Lynch count 2
lynch aubisio: blank slate (1)

On lynch: moody, martin, texas, phoenix, blazade, haruno
Off lynch: lloyd, pancake, lightwolf, butteredtoast, fort colorcastle, aubsio, blank slate, vanillish, former hope, asek, whydon, shubaka, knightsofcydonia

Counterwagon 1 (NOT VOTING): vanillish, former hope, asek, whydon, shubaka, knightsofcydonia
Counterwagon 2: lightwolf, butteredtoast, fort colorcastle, aubisio
Click to expand...

Conclusions
Among Texas/moody/martin there is maximum one scum, zero scum more probable. Scum want to avoid being on town lynch wagons and being on both is a major target

Whydon and KnightsOfCydonia are highly probable scum, both actively Not Voting and avoiding VC associations while being on the actual main counterwagon

Former Hope and Haruno are probable scum targets, being on one lynch and one counterwagon. Former Hope is particularly suspect for being the fourth vote on the main wagon, prime scum territory

Vanillish is a probable scum target, being among the counterwagon on lynch two and hiding among counterbandwagons lynch 1. Vanillish's votes are reflective of a desire to place votes while remaining safe.

IF Fort Colorcastle is town one of Vanillish or Blank Slate is almost certainly scum due to PoE on the d1 combined wagon
IF Fort Colorcastle and LightWolf are town one of ButteredToast and Aubisio are almost certainly scum due to PoE on the d2 moody wagon
IF LightWolf is town, ButteredToast is probable scum due to PoE on counterwagon and vote hiding d1

Two of KnightsOfCydonia/Haruno/Whydon/Aubisio are probably scum. Occam's Razor suggests Aubisio is not scum due to scumminess of other three. Therefore one of Knights/Whydon/Haruno is certain town.


Reads (Towny to Scummy)

{Walrein, Martin}
{Fort Colorcastle, Aubisio}
{LightWolf, Blazade, MoodyCloud, Blank Slate}
{smashlloyd20, acidphoenix, Haruno}
{Whydon, Former Hope, ButteredToast}
{KnightsOfCydonia, Vanillish Wafer}
Click to expand...
 
Well I believe Whydon to be town and if he says so I don't have a particular reason to doubt it, the whole Haruno-omniguard thing seemed weird but I'll drop that argument.
Up til now the kills have been on mostly active and veteran players, guess smashlloyd was the safer target for mafia but it still is a break from their previous pattern (thinking blazade/texas for priority scumkill target).
 
If you'll recall I never believed that claim was true and am expecting him to claim it was a fakeclaim like he usually does and we're back to square 1 alignment wise.

This is why I hate scummy town metas.
 
smashlloyd kill actually makes so much sense if haruno is scum to try and get him cleared

so basically do we kill the lying vet claim (haruno), the scummy guilty but not really vig claim (vanillish) or the night immune claim (BT)

i'm down for haruno or bt but i'd rather BT because he probably is actually night immune and i don't like wasting vigges
 
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