NOC Matrix 12 NOC - Game Over, Mafia Wins

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as for how read the thread, i dont have time to go digging for twenty posts to quote atm

brief summary:

ID: resolve the tunnel, determine if he's hard bussing or town death tunnelling
me: this is a question for other people to answer yeah?
asek: flip can potentially give the first indicator of possible scum alignment
blazade: resolves possible scum buddy associations
josh: amalgamation of above
 
Regarding ID I personally don't think Hitmonleet's flip will tell a lot about his alignment, he could be mistaken town taking hte bait or scum bussing still. The problem I have with this is that ID/Blazade are the only ones in your list I want more info on rn and that I doubt Hitmonleet's flip will be so telling when there are legitimate reasons for both alignments in this game to tunnel him. Ironicdouble taking the blame of Hitmonleet's possible town flip is something I don't want to see tomorrow.
 
Something about the way ironic double posts strikes me as odd.

He's made some fairly town in how out there they are posts like the "lmao you guys rely on prior game meta" post. I'm not sure I see the rationale for saying something Controversial like that as scum and calling needless attn to yourself.

That said many if not most of the rest of his posts have a lot to dislike.

He even admits he's going to park his vote on the leet wagon and not do anything else today unless leet gets lynched. He won't post a new read or other target until leet is dead.

He has a lot of sort of "I'm disinterested I don't know what's going on how can I defend myself!!" Posts as well. On mobile but I think he made one a page or two ago that Josh called out?

I want to say ironic double could be masquerading as Yet Another Noob Town by this. Hoping that people shrug him off despite his refusal to defend himself he wants us to interpret as inability. It's a little dangerous in that we have been wagoning noob towns heavily but also a valid strategy in that eventually we will decide it's futile and stop lynching them.

If leet is town I think that greatly increases the odds id is mafia and wanted the mislynch so badly to make it look like every noob poster is actually town. At the very least attention gets pulled off him.

JMO

he doesn't understand the overuse of playermeta because he comes from a background of ps mafia primarily afaik where playermeta is considered bad
 
Texas is trying to set up a mislynch onto Asek based on leet

^hot take
Hard no, she's a strong town read. Depending on leet's flip it could give the first indication that she could be scum which I will keep in mind for context going forward.

I really don't like you casting that aspersion against me without me having done anything to do it.
 
I don't think an Hitmonleet lynch is bad but people seem to greatly overestimate the info given by his flip mostly if he's town.

Pretty sure we can afford an informationless mislynch on the chance he's town.

It's the Ironic/Pancake slots that I'm more considered about for tomorrow. If Hitmonleet/ID/Pancake/Blazade are all town we might be edging on a loss. I probably won't be able to defend Pancake if a lot of the rest are town :x
 
so

when josh tried to trap card texas with the "leet is confscum and thus can be lynched any day" and texas was like "Yeah totes"

that implies texas is fine with leet not being lynched today in favor of someone else, since leet is an easy lynch for him later

#1630 So if you're team reading me with ironicdouble or hitmonleet you must think one or both of them is scum right? Who do you think could be their partners in context of jalmont as a known partner? What things do you think would point to them as partners to me or as scum individually?


in unrelated news Unvote Vote IronicDouble

#1644 Right so we don't lynch hitmonleet today unless there is no better option available because he's confirmed scum who can die at literally any point remaining in the game

(#1645 is this moody post I dislike how the alternative to the Hitmonleet wagon appears to be Ironic double, I might want to just flip Blazade today and look at the people who pushed on Ironicdouble afterwards (I'm undecisive about Pancake, if Blazade flips scum I probably lynch that slot since he's been pushing the Ironic/Hitmonleet lynch pool))

#1654 I buy ironic double and blazade as plausible partners, hawkie is still a top town read

ID i could see going for the hard bus given the lack of defense on or from leet, higher utility option, likely

don't think i see anyone else plausibly on the scum team atm, would need more flip info first

#1655 hmm i do see a scenario where ID is lock town though

#1661 alright looked into a couple things and I don't think i'm comfortable lynching ironicdouble before hitmonleet. i think if hitmonleet flips scum there's enough reasoning below the surface to lock ID as town and as before if he flips town it makes asek more likely scum. for the time being unvote Vote Blazade

at the time this vote was made id had 3 votes: asek, myself, and texas. texas switches off putting id to 2. 2's a party, 3's a crowd.

#1801 fwiw i do agree with this, leet flip is the next piece of info i'm waiting on to start the next phase of the game

texas changes his vote to leet in 1813

when id has 3 votes both moody and texas express concern about it. texas switches his vote off to blazade soon after. moody's vote is now on ironicdouble, i want to go and see what his reasoning for that vote is when he says he wants blazade lynched more.

if texas is fine with lynching confscum leet later, he feels very... apathetic... about who to lynch today. he says it's the discovery period for lynches several hundred posts ago and then places a couple wagony votes before winding back up on the hitmonleet wagon. id and blazade both had 2 other votes when texas voted and leet is, of course, big wagon.

texas doesnt really drive anything on this day. i dont see him grilling id or blazade to flesh out if he actually likes them as lynches or not. he "looks into a couple things" and moves off id.

the dude is pretty active and prominent, josh and co have played with him more but do you see the above progression where texas feels leet is a solid bet on any day to lynch but doesn't take much active action to find another lynch today?

his progression in under 200 posts comes back to "i need leet's flip for info on the next phase" which feels extremely lackluster. texas has already stated he thinks leet is confirmed scum, now he needs hitmonleet's flip before he can figure out who else is a better option or partner? :thinking:

now he's voting leet.

i also see a subtle defense of ironicdouble by both moody and texas. texas actually votes id putting him at 3 total and then 31 posts later moves off id onto blazade.

does anyone else not understand at all how id is lock town based on leet scumflip? or any circumstance where id is lock town, really?

id is one of the people who has been pushing leet hard, and id subbed in d2. blazade was pushing/voting leet since d1. it makes no sense to me to think id could be lock town off leet flipping scum but also voting blazade. the fh half of the slot totally ignored leet afaik. and no mention of if hawkie would be lock town or suspicious in relation to leet as well by texas.

if 1 of id or texas is scum i would feel pretty confident the other is a partner. i dont see texas driving any discussion with his "confscum leet" who can be lynched on any day and he ultimately decides there are no better options to lynch besides leet today. the claim id would be lock town i need some Serious elaboration on to make sense.
 
in short, texas moves things away from id pretty quickly and then when too few people are willing to vote blazade bc he is afk speedrunnin, texas (having not really explored or push anyone beyond these 3) goes back to confscum leet.

it bothers me that no other wagon can gain a ton of traction on d3. which could be bc leet is The Bus or bc he's a mislynch and the mafia have no reason to let another wagon form. we obv wont know until he flips.
 
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