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NOC There's Actually a Sequel to the Matrix - Day 9 (Deadline Tuesday 10 PM EST)
- Thread starter Da Letter El
- Start date
do you think this nk can come from pidge
i dont know, im gonna take a look at this game tomorrow
you put him in your poe on your end post and OM's last comment was him as town
do you think scum drookez kills OM based on that? ill trust your meta read
you're on pidge now and not me today?
im staying on pidge for now
i don't really wanna be in a spot where i let paranoia overtake me given there's only one spot left
and there have been weird NKs in the past (heal kill 2d3, DLE kill matrix) and im just not really finding anything here
i don't really wanna be in a spot where i let paranoia overtake me given there's only one spot left
and there have been weird NKs in the past (heal kill 2d3, DLE kill matrix) and im just not really finding anything here
check OMs reads, nks 90% of the time are on people who scum are scared of catching them, conftown or not
Could be wifom as well Tbh
the correct move, mathematically, is to no lynch today, then do 3 lynches on the coming days. if we have 1 confirmed town. the chances to win are 46% (lynch now) to 54% (no lynch today). if we have 2 confirmed town, the chances to win are 50% (lynch now) to 56% (no lynch today).
if we have 3, 4, or 5 confirmed town players right now, our chances remain the same whether we no lynch today or we lynch. chances are 60%, 75%, and 100% respectively.
this is all assuming a confirmed town player is killed each night (despite what just happened last night).
for the calculation, i would share the spreadsheet or an image of the spreadsheet, but don't know if that's rule breaking, and waiting for sober dle to respond.
the number of confirmed town players we have right now is really up to opinion. given that choosing to no lynch right now can only increase our chance or keep our chances the same, it seems to be the logical move.
yes, i thought energy was mafia based on my own reads, while nuxl being mafia based on asek sheep. you weren't in my 'solve'. i wouldn't call anything i had a 'solve'. i had 1 guy who i thought was mafia (energy), and 1 before that (inferno), and 1 before that (FH). energy and inferno played so bad at the end of day 3 that i was almost certain one of them was mafia trying something ballsy in desperation. if i had to make a 'solve' right now, it would be nuxl, then whydon, then duskfall. this is based on the 4 other people being quite towny due to:
cop (rssp)
end of day 1 (viper)
other people that are dead/alive saying they are towny due to meta information (texas, drookz).
stuff like 'this is town drookz' or 'no way texas can fake town this good' have really little meaning to me due to my lack of experience, but i can accept it if multiple people are saying it. it's quite good that we can see who other people believe are town without having to worry about it being a mafia painting an ally as village at this stage of the game.
also, my solve doesn't matter as much as asek's, who plainly said he wanted nuxl to be lynched next. the reason i value asek's poe so much is because of how accurate he was since day 1. in some ways, it would be a disservice to not do it. he seemed quite confident in his poe as well, we can even flame him if he is wrong.
there's 8 alive players currently. i've explained why 4 people are likely town, and thus why the remaining 3 have to contain a mafia, but i've excluded myself. so to someone not me, the mafia must be contained in one of the 4: nuxl, whydon, duskfall, pidge. but we only have 3 lynches. recent posts are suggesting my posts have not been obvious town. i can partially agree with that. i didn't have anything to do with the 3p1k lynch and i still don't understand how it was decided, unless it just purely meta that i wouldn't understand anyway. the FH lynch was what i wanted day 1, and that's probably the most towny thing i have in my history. caffeineboost lynch was an easy cop sheep, although stupid plot twists occurred with energy and inferno.
so why am i explaining all this? because at the start of the game, i read i was VT, and i was relieved. i was thinking it's my first NOC game and i didn't have to worry about hiding anything or messing up. i can speak freely and post honestly, i figured that's what VTs do, while mafia have to over analyze everything they post and make sure they don't say anything stupid. someone even said hypocrisy is town indicative in this game for a similar reason. you can ask me whatever you want about this game, and i will be able to give a genuine response, and i believe i have done so already and throughout the game.
why was rssp1 not killed? i think it's because he is steering the game in a favorable way for mafia. nuxl, whydon, and duskfall are not in his poe, but hey, i am.
if we have 3, 4, or 5 confirmed town players right now, our chances remain the same whether we no lynch today or we lynch. chances are 60%, 75%, and 100% respectively.
this is all assuming a confirmed town player is killed each night (despite what just happened last night).
for the calculation, i would share the spreadsheet or an image of the spreadsheet, but don't know if that's rule breaking, and waiting for sober dle to respond.
the number of confirmed town players we have right now is really up to opinion. given that choosing to no lynch right now can only increase our chance or keep our chances the same, it seems to be the logical move.
yes, i thought energy was mafia based on my own reads, while nuxl being mafia based on asek sheep. you weren't in my 'solve'. i wouldn't call anything i had a 'solve'. i had 1 guy who i thought was mafia (energy), and 1 before that (inferno), and 1 before that (FH). energy and inferno played so bad at the end of day 3 that i was almost certain one of them was mafia trying something ballsy in desperation. if i had to make a 'solve' right now, it would be nuxl, then whydon, then duskfall. this is based on the 4 other people being quite towny due to:
cop (rssp)
end of day 1 (viper)
other people that are dead/alive saying they are towny due to meta information (texas, drookz).
stuff like 'this is town drookz' or 'no way texas can fake town this good' have really little meaning to me due to my lack of experience, but i can accept it if multiple people are saying it. it's quite good that we can see who other people believe are town without having to worry about it being a mafia painting an ally as village at this stage of the game.
also, my solve doesn't matter as much as asek's, who plainly said he wanted nuxl to be lynched next. the reason i value asek's poe so much is because of how accurate he was since day 1. in some ways, it would be a disservice to not do it. he seemed quite confident in his poe as well, we can even flame him if he is wrong.
there's 8 alive players currently. i've explained why 4 people are likely town, and thus why the remaining 3 have to contain a mafia, but i've excluded myself. so to someone not me, the mafia must be contained in one of the 4: nuxl, whydon, duskfall, pidge. but we only have 3 lynches. recent posts are suggesting my posts have not been obvious town. i can partially agree with that. i didn't have anything to do with the 3p1k lynch and i still don't understand how it was decided, unless it just purely meta that i wouldn't understand anyway. the FH lynch was what i wanted day 1, and that's probably the most towny thing i have in my history. caffeineboost lynch was an easy cop sheep, although stupid plot twists occurred with energy and inferno.
so why am i explaining all this? because at the start of the game, i read i was VT, and i was relieved. i was thinking it's my first NOC game and i didn't have to worry about hiding anything or messing up. i can speak freely and post honestly, i figured that's what VTs do, while mafia have to over analyze everything they post and make sure they don't say anything stupid. someone even said hypocrisy is town indicative in this game for a similar reason. you can ask me whatever you want about this game, and i will be able to give a genuine response, and i believe i have done so already and throughout the game.
why was rssp1 not killed? i think it's because he is steering the game in a favorable way for mafia. nuxl, whydon, and duskfall are not in his poe, but hey, i am.
pidge took the words out of my mouth tbh
i have thoughts ive been mulling over and i stored them w/ dle so i can work on getting stuff out. also deadline is sunday, is that correct or did Da Letter El not update it?
i have thoughts ive been mulling over and i stored them w/ dle so i can work on getting stuff out. also deadline is sunday, is that correct or did Da Letter El not update it?
I don't want to cast aspersions on pidge based on their inexperience in noc but my first thought reading through that was that the post comes from a scum mindset the whole way through