NOC There's Actually a Sequel to the Matrix - Day 9 (Deadline Tuesday 10 PM EST)

[rssp1]

I don't want to cast aspersions on pidge based on their inexperience in noc but my first thought reading through that was that the post comes from a scum mindset the whole way through

yeah maybe its possible that pidge makes this kill and then decides to push this argument as a last ditch effort

 

[Pidge]

i do not see the purpose in no lynching because thats just going to get me or another universally tr'ed person (see: texas) killed so id like some explanation on why you think that's a good idea pidge

because math

day A means the day we are on right now
players alive = x
people confirmed town = y
fail lynch chance = (x-y-1)/(x-y)

this is what happens is we lynch today, while having 1 confirmed town player:

day A
players alive (x): 8
confirmed town (y): 1
fail lynch chance: 0.8571428571 = 6/7

day B
players alive (x): 6
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.8333333333 = 5/6

day C
players alive (x): 4
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.75 = 3/4

chance to fail all lynches: 0.5357142857 you calculate this by multiplying fail lynch chances from day A, B, C
chance of winning: 0.4642857143 this is calculated by 1 minus the above

this is what happens if you no lynch today, while having 1 confirmed town player:

day A
no lynch, lose our confirmed town at night

day B
players alive (x): 7
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.8571428571 = 6/7

day C
players alive (x): 5
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.8 = 4/5

day D
players alive (x): 3
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.6666666667 = 2/3

chance to fail all lynches: 0.4571428571
chance of winning: 0.5428571429
---
so basically, by no lynching today, we increase our chances of winning from 46% to 54%, assuming we have 1 confirmed town player. i calculated this for 2, 3, 4, and 5 confirmed town players. i'm not gonna type all that shit out, you can check it yourself, but in summary it looks like this:

we lynch today, our chances to win
2 confirmed town: 0.5
3 confirmed town: 0.6
4 confirmed town: 0.75
5 confirmed town: 1

we no lynch today, our chances to win
2 confirmed town: 0.5555555556
3 confirmed town: 0.6
4 confirmed town: 0.75
5 confirmed town: 1

 

[rssp1]

i dont know whether you're town or not but please dont use math in mafia its useless 90% of the time
if we no lynch i probably just die (or texas) which means we just wasted a free day to - at worst - poe someone off

 

[rssp1]

oops that we could have used to - at worst - poe someone off

 

[Pidge]

I don't want to cast aspersions on pidge based on their inexperience in noc but my first thought reading through that was that the post comes from a scum mindset the whole way through

why?

 

[Pidge]

i dont know whether you're town or not but please dont use math in mafia its useless 90% of the time
if we no lynch i probably just die (or texas) which means we just wasted a free day to - at worst - poe someone off

dumbest shit i've read. 'please don't calculate probability to maximize your chances of winning even when you account for things like confirmed people being killed off'. like the numbers are right there in front of you telling you otherwise. if my math was conceptually wrong that would be one thing, but that's not what you're saying.

 

[rssp1]

zzz ill re-explain my point later im too lazy atm, sorry

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

no lynching sounds nice in theory but rarely works in practice, you typically only no lynch at 4 remaining

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Generally ends up benefitting scum

 

[Pidge]

if i end up being the lynch, you will see afterward the game is not over, and then remember you're supposed to get nuxl in this game

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Easy lad I haven't decided yet if your post is inexperienced scum or inexperienced town thinking a thing makes sense that doesn't work

 

[vooper]

because math

day A means the day we are on right now
players alive = x
people confirmed town = y
fail lynch chance = (x-y-1)/(x-y)

this is what happens is we lynch today, while having 1 confirmed town player:

day A
players alive (x): 8
confirmed town (y): 1
fail lynch chance: 0.8571428571 = 6/7

day B
players alive (x): 6
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.8333333333 = 5/6

day C
players alive (x): 4
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.75 = 3/4

chance to fail all lynches: 0.5357142857 you calculate this by multiplying fail lynch chances from day A, B, C
chance of winning: 0.4642857143 this is calculated by 1 minus the above

this is what happens if you no lynch today, while having 1 confirmed town player:

day A
no lynch, lose our confirmed town at night

day B
players alive (x): 7
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.8571428571 = 6/7

day C
players alive (x): 5
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.8 = 4/5

day D
players alive (x): 3
confirmed town (y): 0
fail lynch chance: 0.6666666667 = 2/3

chance to fail all lynches: 0.4571428571
chance of winning: 0.5428571429
---
so basically, by no lynching today, we increase our chances of winning from 46% to 54%, assuming we have 1 confirmed town player. i calculated this for 2, 3, 4, and 5 confirmed town players. i'm not gonna type all that shit out, you can check it yourself, but in summary it looks like this:

we lynch today, our chances to win
2 confirmed town: 0.5
3 confirmed town: 0.6
4 confirmed town: 0.75
5 confirmed town: 1

we no lynch today, our chances to win
2 confirmed town: 0.5555555556
3 confirmed town: 0.6
4 confirmed town: 0.75
5 confirmed town: 1

Minor error here I’m seeing but idk if it will make a difference cause math ain’t my strongsuit

At 4players when we do not no lynch here we would no lynch there always bringing it to a 2/3 to misslynch rather than a 3/4

 

[Tommy]

No lynch never makes sense we just lose rssp tonight.

Save the no lynch for when we have no confirmed players imo. Anyways my perspective hasn't changed from yesterday and I doubt there is much that will make it change due to not a lot of discussion happening.

It could be wifom with pidge but I still think we have to lynch that slot due to it being one of the least towny

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

I'm of the opinion that 90% of games can be solved purely from day 1

In unrelated news, I do not support lynching pidge

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

In retrospect 175 should have been an extremely obvious scum tell

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Is Whydon still in the game?

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

also re Pidge
Hal has a bit of a history of just expecting people to follow his reads. He's a good player (as town) and generally can make some good reads. But he also expects people to just follow him.

That said, he is also pretty generally good at obv towning, so we'll wait to see if that shows.

So regards to page 3 stuff, that's me pushing back against hal telling him to knock it off. But also admitting and saying that I don't mind following him if I agree with him and he can prove it. Continue to SR me if you want, but confusion about what I was saying shouldn't be apart of your read.

This is a weird interaction to have if pidge were scum, I don't see this coming organically

At the moment I think we should lynch duskfall

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

rssp1 I'm finding nuxls progression of read on you from the first ten pages to be towny, do you agree?

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

ping

The post that pinged asek is also the reason I want to vote dusk right now

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Asek, oddish, om room, all suspecting dusk through page 14

The commonality here is obvious

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

1. Nuxl
2. Duskfall98
3. rssp1
4. apricity
5. asek
6. infernodragon
7. omroom
8. viper
9. texas
10. fh
11. whydon
12. oddish
13. caffeineboost
14. drookez
15. 3p1k
16. pidge
17. Energy

Quoting this so I can stroke Asek off if dusk flips red

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Two accounts of Asek's different playstyle. Only played one game with Asek so I can't really say much about the playstyle here but I'll keep a note of it. Asek probably town.



Oh I see. This is why. Alright, that's fair. Mind explaining what was so unnatural about it? I need to know so I can change my behaviour so you stop suspecting me.

Gonna lean town on Dusk. P. solid reasoning here. Will look over FH's posts later to see how much I agree with it.

-INSERT THE ENTIRETY OF PAGE 14 HERE-
Nuxl seems to be posting a lot which makes me think he's town.

Alrighty, time for my terrible attempt to sort out who's scum and who's town:

1. Nuxl (Lean)
2. Duskfall98 (Lean)
3. rssp1(Lean. Haven't brought him up in anything specific but the general vibe that I'm getting is that he's probably Town)
4. Apricity (I gave up trying to read this guy ages ago)
5. Asek (While I don't have a read myself, I am willing to work on the assumption that Asek is town given the general consensus amongst others)
6. Infernodragon
7. OM Room (Read. Actively scumhunting + a healthy amount of shitposting reminds me of me if I was of any use at all)
8. Viper (If it wasn't for Wayne Brady then this would be a null. Something's a bit shady and I'm being very cautious around him after he moled me.)
9. Texas (He's made town posts but he's done this as scum before iirc)
10. Former Hope (This may change after I read through his posts but rn I don't know where to put him)
11. Whydon (post gdi)
12. Oddish
13. CaffeineBoost (Easily scum. Hasn't done anything useful whatsoever. Honestly we should just policy lynch this guy asap whenever he joins a mafia game)
14. Drookez (post gdi)
15. 3p1k (Idk why some people think he's scum. I don't see it myself.)
16. Pidge
17. Energy (On one hand his reasoning is shite, on the other hand this is kinda what I expected.)

(Thanks asek for the format)

Will look into Inferno (iirc he hasn't posted though?), FH, Oddish and 3p1k.

First defense of dusk

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Dusk --> Whydon ends the game 95% of the time

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Now this is interesting and physically jarred me awake

If we agree that me flipping town is a bad look on Texas/whydon

For context, this is in the middle and nearing the end of the 1v1 with me and dusk, I've been pushing him super hard, calling him out on his misreps, and dusk had said about six posts earlier that "Texas is just looking for any excuse to scum read me"

In that context him tying my alignment to his flip makes sense as town. But where the hell did whydon come from?

 

[Tommy]

Dusk --> Whydon ends the game 95% of the time

Even if you don't think pidge is the lynch today, are you certain that he is towny enough to be completely outside of scum pool? I don't see it tbh.