NOC Smogon Mafia Mafia (Won by the Mafia)

Rostam said:
Need to reassess my reads a bit after the EOD stuff. I think AG checks out (I don't really understand the case against him at all) but I do not think Pulsar is town
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Blazade said:
What does AG have to answer for? If you believe Neon (I know I do?), the skip wagon actually needed an extra vote to still be tied and no one else is giving a reason for it. I can still see voting him because roles that secretly give extra votes can still be scumsided but I don't think he's actually lying about anything that happened
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Can you think of a single time where a villager just had secret hidden votes they could use on a limited basis. Also why even use one there unless it is to save someone, and why would village AG be desperate to save either pulsar or skipper to the point where he uses a limited-resource extra vote on a day 1 50/50 rand that he didn’t even push much for?

Again, I agree with you I wanna pursue Rostam for now and think that’s the best lead. I just think it’s bizarre how you’re willing to just ignore AG after everything that happened.
 
a fairy said:
see here's the thing sam i think the mistake is so out of this world that a scum AG never even considers trying to script something that would come out looking like it
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I don’t think it was scripted. I think he just felt pressure and panic claimed. What I’m trying to figure out is whether the motivation behind that (and behind his subsequent actions). Can be town.

But also I already said I wanna focus on Rostam not AG. So, what’re your thoughts on them and on the Jalmont hint?
 
i did have thoughts of like, i wonder if there's any jalmont interaction that could lean towards what they might've done at night. didnt iso them but ngl i did wonder if you given how much you pushed them mightve been the target, but seemed unlike jalmont. the rostam thing is good, i still hope to iso jalmont to make sure that the rostam thing wasnt cherry picked and there are other possibilities. i mentioned in my reads tho that rostam is someone ive got no idea on given my lack of interaction w/ them
 
UncleSam said:
Can you think of a single time where a villager just had secret hidden votes they could use on a limited basis. Also why even use one there unless it is to save someone, and why would village AG be desperate to save either pulsar or skipper to the point where he uses a limited-resource extra vote on a day 1 50/50 rand that he didn’t even push much for?

Again, I agree with you I wanna pursue Rostam for now and think that’s the best lead. I just think it’s bizarre how you’re willing to just ignore AG after everything that happened.
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Didn't he claim to activate when the wagons were pulsar/AG?
 
Rostam said:
The KIS story is that mafia killed JALMONT since he gives very little info in conjunction with no lynch and he’s a veteran player. You’re making a lot of assumptions about the night action arithmetic imo.
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I don't think I am. JALMONT was being given leeway but very much capable of being lynched the following day. He's not an obvious kill target when the mafia can target people who are claiming to be powerful (Emcee's vig likely, since pulsar who was probably roleblocked instead) or town presences who are more active and driving discussion.

I don't think it's crazy for mafia to assign a kill to you, a newer player with less thread presence than some, and I don't think it's crazy for Jalmont to have indicated his target because Martyr is a role very much at risk of dying. A mafia team without some older players probably doesn't even think about martyr existing as a possibility, it certainly wasn't a role used in any of these very recent games iirc.
 
Rostam said:
Didn't he claim to activate when the wagons were pulsar/AG?
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imperfectluck said:
Current votecount as of post 783:

Aura Guardian (5): Blazade, Celever, Ehmcee, pulsar512b, Announcer
pulsar512b (4): Aura Guardian, realiti, Rostam, ZippyDoo200
Celever (1): Tigershark/genius1
Jalmont (1): UncleSam
UncleSam (0): ImaginaryNeon

I reordered the votes to have the people with most votes on them first. Also, I am going out on an errand and will be back in maybe an hour and a half, plenty of time before deadline still.
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This was the vc (edited to account for my announced vote) as of when I announced the vote that AG thought was his own vote.
 
Blazade said:
I don't think I am. JALMONT was being given leeway but very much capable of being lynched the following day. He's not an obvious kill target when the mafia can target people who are claiming to be powerful (Emcee's vig likely, since pulsar who was probably roleblocked instead) or town presences who are more active and driving discussion.

I don't think it's crazy for mafia to assign a kill to you, a newer player with less thread presence than some, and I don't think it's crazy for Jalmont to have indicated his target because Martyr is a role very much at risk of dying. A mafia team without some older players probably doesn't even think about martyr existing as a possibility, it certainly wasn't a role used in any of these very recent games iirc.
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JALMONT actually had a martyr in Assist Trophy, funnily enough

for the wider point, I think this post by JALMONT can be put in the jar of "probably looks bad for Rostam" but it is by no means a solve IMO. I think JALMONT is a somewhat sensible shot for mafia because no one was really universally townread yesterday, and he contributed very little of value so it's quite a neutral kill to continue town on the same path. Considering AG's 5th draft of his claim is corroborated mechanically by Neon, and considering I think pulsar is town and could honestly also see skipper being town, JALMONT is a decent kill option for a mafia team who don't want to shake the game up.
 
UncleSam said:
Can you think of a single time where a villager just had secret hidden votes they could use on a limited basis. Also why even use one there unless it is to save someone, and why would village AG be desperate to save either pulsar or skipper to the point where he uses a limited-resource extra vote on a day 1 50/50 rand that he didn’t even push much for?

Again, I agree with you I wanna pursue Rostam for now and think that’s the best lead. I just think it’s bizarre how you’re willing to just ignore AG after everything that happened.
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I agree, the role is weird and that's the only reason I haven't cleared him. But there's been a confluence of events where he certainly didn't understand the role and thought the coincidental announce was it. He did use it when it was AG vs pulsar, then I and others moved to skipper and those were the two big wagons. If he had a scumchat and the role was weird would his teammates ask about it? Some of that confusion was real time and impossible to fake or mitigate as either alignment, but I'm just not seeing anything malicious here.

AG, upon seeing the announce after he used his ability must have thought "Oh, great, the host confirmed that I have an extra vote now" and felt relieved and immediately spewed "town this is proof I am who I say, get your protection on me". This on a soul read emotional level really seems hard to fake as scum.
 
Blazade said:
I don't think I am. JALMONT was being given leeway but very much capable of being lynched the following day. He's not an obvious kill target when the mafia can target people who are claiming to be powerful (Emcee's vig likely, since pulsar who was probably roleblocked instead) or town presences who are more active and driving discussion.

I don't think it's crazy for mafia to assign a kill to you, a newer player with less thread presence than some, and I don't think it's crazy for Jalmont to have indicated his target because Martyr is a role very much at risk of dying. A mafia team without some older players probably doesn't even think about martyr existing as a possibility, it certainly wasn't a role used in any of these very recent games iirc.
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This still reads as a lot of ifs to me but obviously I can only look at it from the perspective that I know that I am town. I still contend that JALMONT is an eminently plausible scum target given the tie vote.
 
Celever said:
JALMONT actually had a martyr in Assist Trophy, funnily enough

for the wider point, I think this post by JALMONT can be put in the jar of "probably looks bad for Rostam" but it is by no means a solve IMO. I think JALMONT is a somewhat sensible shot for mafia because no one was really universally townread yesterday, and he contributed very little of value so it's quite a neutral kill to continue town on the same path. Considering AG's 5th draft of his claim is corroborated mechanically by Neon, and considering I think pulsar is town and could honestly also see skipper being town, JALMONT is a decent kill option for a mafia team who don't want to shake the game up.
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That is actually funny, I don't think I read through assist trophy all the way.

Re: probabilities, what the math on this looks like is

P(Jalmont targets Rostam with Martyr)*P(Rostam is Mafia)*P(Rostam is assigned the kill | Rostam is Mafia) + corner cases

VS

Sum over each possible mafia team without Rostam P(The team is Mafia)*P(That team chooses to kill Jalmont)

I would argue that P(Jalmont targeted Rostam) is close to 1, and I would also argue that P(Rostam is assigned kill | Rostam is mafia) is high as well, higher than P(Mafia team kills Jalmont) for a lot of random mafia teams especially with Emcee claim in tbe mix. I also am getting more towntells from people by the day and the PoE is widening and P(Rostam is mafia) is increasing. But you're right, it's far from an airtight solve. This is just where my head is at.
 
Blazade said:
That is actually funny, I don't think I read through assist trophy all the way.

Re: probabilities, what the math on this looks like is

P(Jalmont targets Rostam with Martyr)*P(Rostam is Mafia)*P(Rostam is assigned the kill | Rostam is Mafia) + corner cases

VS

Sum over each possible mafia team without Rostam P(The team is Mafia)*P(That team chooses to kill Jalmont)

I would argue that P(Jalmont targeted Rostam) is close to 1, and I would also argue that P(Rostam is assigned kill | Rostam is mafia) is high as well, higher than P(Mafia team kills Jalmont) for a lot of random mafia teams especially with Emcee claim in tbe mix. I also am getting more towntells from people by the day and the PoE is widening and P(Rostam is mafia) is increasing. But you're right, it's far from an airtight solve. This is just where my head is at.
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EBWOP the poe is shrinking not widening.

I have some work to do still so I'll be back in a bit
 
a fairy said:
i did have thoughts of like, i wonder if there's any jalmont interaction that could lean towards what they might've done at night. didnt iso them but ngl i did wonder if you given how much you pushed them mightve been the target, but seemed unlike jalmont. the rostam thing is good, i still hope to iso jalmont to make sure that the rostam thing wasnt cherry picked and there are other possibilities. i mentioned in my reads tho that rostam is someone ive got no idea on given my lack of interaction w/ them
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I’m ngl my personal pet theory (largely because it strikes my own ego) is that Jalmont was targeted for a kill because he was sheeping me at EOD and scum didn’t want to risk killing me for fear of hitting a BG.
Blazade said:
That is actually funny, I don't think I read through assist trophy all the way.

Re: probabilities, what the math on this looks like is

P(Jalmont targets Rostam with Martyr)*P(Rostam is Mafia)*P(Rostam is assigned the kill | Rostam is Mafia) + corner cases

VS

Sum over each possible mafia team without Rostam P(The team is Mafia)*P(That team chooses to kill Jalmont)

I would argue that P(Jalmont targeted Rostam) is close to 1, and I would also argue that P(Rostam is assigned kill | Rostam is mafia) is high as well, higher than P(Mafia team kills Jalmont) for a lot of random mafia teams especially with Emcee claim in tbe mix. I also am getting more towntells from people by the day and the PoE is widening and P(Rostam is mafia) is increasing. But you're right, it's far from an airtight solve. This is just where my head is at.
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so you know I love this for the math but you’re gonna need to unpack this for everyone else most likely
 
Blazade said:
That is actually funny, I don't think I read through assist trophy all the way.

Re: probabilities, what the math on this looks like is

P(Jalmont targets Rostam with Martyr)*P(Rostam is Mafia)*P(Rostam is assigned the kill | Rostam is Mafia) + corner cases

VS

Sum over each possible mafia team without Rostam P(The team is Mafia)*P(That team chooses to kill Jalmont)

I would argue that P(Jalmont targeted Rostam) is close to 1, and I would also argue that P(Rostam is assigned kill | Rostam is mafia) is high as well, higher than P(Mafia team kills Jalmont) for a lot of random mafia teams especially with Emcee claim in tbe mix. I also am getting more towntells from people by the day and the PoE is widening and P(Rostam is mafia) is increasing. But you're right, it's far from an airtight solve. This is just where my head is at.
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that maths is really cool! and I know what it means! :worrywhirl:
 
Celever said:
JALMONT actually had a martyr in Assist Trophy, funnily enough

for the wider point, I think this post by JALMONT can be put in the jar of "probably looks bad for Rostam" but it is by no means a solve IMO. I think JALMONT is a somewhat sensible shot for mafia because no one was really universally townread yesterday, and he contributed very little of value so it's quite a neutral kill to continue town on the same path. Considering AG's 5th draft of his claim is corroborated mechanically by Neon, and considering I think pulsar is town and could honestly also see skipper being town, JALMONT is a decent kill option for a mafia team who don't want to shake the game up.
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assist trophy is the spiders georg of smogon mafia and should not be counted
 
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