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And in what can be locked if not brave bird? flare blitz?
Brave bird is the best and usually most common move a cb can be locked on, so I think you should put talon in the 50/50.
Also don't give Dugtrio away so easily, most of the time it carries a focus sash, so it can earthquake the first turn...
Dang, you're right, I've finished now to breed a female Froakie with a male Lapras with Ice shard, and it doesn't get it.
Sorry guys I should have checked first.