Finals Smogon Premier League XVI - Finals [Won by Congregation of the Classiest]

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Finals Tiebreaker is finally here... good luck both!!

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Congregation of the Classiest (1) vs (1) Circus Maximus Tigers

SV OU: S1nn0hC0nfirm3d vs 3d
SS OU: BIHI vs Ox the Fox
ADV OU: McMeghan vs baddummy


Deadline will be April 13th, 11:00 PM GMT -4.​
 
SV OU: S1nn0hC0nfirm3d vs 3d 50/50

Pretty even match, 3d showed up and stood on bussisness, I think he can do it again, but this is in no way an easy match, for all the trash talk and carelessness that sinnoh shows to the public, inside, he is burning for revenge, and will probably try hard it like never before

Tigers pick: SS OU: BIHI vs Ox the Fox 70/30

While Ox The Fox and I are complete polar opposites in ideals, nature, nurture, environment, actions and decisions. I can't deny his skill. IMO, his magnus opus is Ox hail, because arctozolt (the ugliest and worst designed pokemon gamefreak has ever made) just so happens to beat the 2 most broken pokemon of the tier, kartana and toxapex, and the amount of pokemon that can actually do this is low. BIHI, on the opposite side, I don't exactly know his SS skills

This pick has seen some controversy as their ace, don eduardo carapinga, is on the bench instead of playing GSC, but you could make a case of Carapinga vs McMeghan being risky for the tigers, so they went with a tier that they have a little bit less dominance while also escaping from one of the best players of the site

Classiest pick: ADV OU: McMeghan vs baddummy 60/40

This one is the controversial pick, the classiest picked McMeghan vs Baddummy, normally this would be the most obvious pick of all time, in this tour tho, baddummy is currently 2-0 vs the king of adv, this is even more confusing as the tigers had a clear weak tier, BW, in which, had the classiest picked, they would've been forced to slot 3d in and had another guy for SV OU. I'm gonna put an optimistic end to this and quote ABR, in which he thinks that if the classiest win this TB, the amount of aura gained for this risk will make the victory glorious


Overall, 0/10, no McMeghan vs 3d for bw yall BUMS
 
We get 3d, from humble beginnings as a SoulWind fanboy substitute to a starter and coming in clutch to the point of being trusted to tiebreak. A hero of the people, his win would make the world whole. His opponent, the confirmer, is certainly no slouch with the dominant CB tera dark moon last week and previously winning WCoP/SCL.

McM is 0-2 vs baddummy this tour but has absolutely no fear or doubt. He and his team know that tiebreak is a different stage, a stage roro is deeply familiar with and baddummy is entirely new to. High aura, high bravery pick by ro that I expect to pay off.

And to finish it off? The Southern school of SS vs the French school (2 WCoP winners during cg). The Gox has found his stride after a rocky start and it looks like this tier is still his playground. Bihi has played less SS recently but I know if he was slotted here it's because he's confident, and is very familiar defending against opponent picks in TB. Imo, the deciding game, with a slight favor to ox but bihi winning wouldn't surprise at all.

Pure cinema.

May the best win
 
Crazy TBs. I appreciate that, to some extent, both teams have eschewed what traditional wisdom would call the "safe"/predictable pick in favour of hype moments and aura. One team moreso than the other.

SV OU: S1nn0hC0nfirm3d vs 3d 50/50
This was a good MU in finals and it is a transgenerational matchup after the last game they just had. Sinnoh's last three games are an interesting case study: he loaded a sample team vs Luis but also got fried by Scale Shot missing, he loaded Band Moon and nailed every switch vs java's stall, and then 3d plotted for a week and fed him the information. His aura is arguably on the line here, he must recover from that log. 3d is somebody I'm thrilled to see in a TB, he's been working super hard at this and his gameplay shows he's ready for the moment. Nailed the turns last week and should be just about ready to do it again.
In terms of team choice I don't think we're getting stall (thank fuck). My guess is that 3d loads some bulkier, safer lordheat and Sinnoh brings a weird offence tech.
Gameplay-wise there are two big questions. A, is 3d mentally prepared for the biggest game of his career, his first tiebreak ever? B, will Sinnoh's projected confidence again manifest to bite him?
Also, I would not have been remotely upset at Kate SV here. She's, like, never lost in official playoffs, was their only SV win this week, and just made Storm Zone sit out of a TB. Would have been the aura pick.

SS OU: BIHI vs Ox the Fox 45/55
Extremely solid pick from the Tigers. Ox is on fire after a middling start and just 6-0ed their usual starter. Them not picking GSC was a surprise but I figure they think the delta between Ox and whoever they put in here is bigger than the delta between Kenix and BIHI/McMeghan in GSC — plus they need to know if Kenix is needed on defence. BIHI as the counterpick makes sense, I'm not willing to relinquish his clutch status just off of 1 SPL, he's barely played some of these games. damien has been very sheist in a number of games but getting perfect gamed could have boomed him. Ox is the natural favourite here but if BIHI uses the BIHItches Brew alt it gets a lot closer.

ADV OU: McMeghan vs baddummy 49/51
This has the potential to be one of the most badass picks ever, or one of the worst picks ever. Classiest intentionally picking into a 9-2 slot that's 2-0 against their selection would normally be outrageous, especially if there's a completely dead BW slot up for grabs. The differences are twofold: 1) their pick is McMeghan, who has been here and won here a thousand times, and 2) they are apparently fucking terrified of running into Kenix and would rather face baddummy at home than risk being Carapingaed in BW. Theory and precedent say dummy, which is why I put the odds in his favour. But I have to bold McMeghan here, because losing here would constitute untold aura loss so he has much more to lose than dummy has to gain. Math is math.

Fire matches. Cheering for the Classiest but either team would be incredibly deserving of the red.
 
this is maybe the most interesting tiebreak of all time?

First we have baddummy, who is quite literally the best performing player in the tournament according to The Sheet, and from what I can see(maybe missing context) from replays ate roro's ass with ease twice, with Mariano Dragon Parental Bond coming off a classic win for the best prep possible. On the other side we have solo Roro(i guess dice helps a bit) going full fuck it we ball?? This is like sulcata vs Lavos except somehow sulcata was the pick to win from Tyrants instead of Ruiners.

Except this is obviously not sulcata vs lavos. Still though, the tigers are 2-9 in BW, and even though im doing some sheetery and didnt really watch everything they kept putting new players into the slot which shows a clear lack of faith in it unless Sergio had to take a 2 month trip to Kazakhstan in the middle of the tour or something.

I think the logic is that dice has been kinda mid and then its Roro in BW, but if you're gonna put roro in, you might as well ask him what he's comfortable playing, which is how we reach this matchup.

My only prediction:

ADV OU: McMeghan vs baddummy 90/10 if no hax as long as the tigers win the tournament

- thats the goat
- surely doesnt happen thrice
- 3k 10-2 + 3 beats roro finals and tiebreak + trophy breaks math

Either baddummy wins and tigers lose so nobody remembers shit, this game doesn't happen, or bro lucks so its fraud but standard spl
if the 10% chance happens though thats goated

You gotta wonder though, at what point do you not put McMeghan ADV in tiebreak? What does it take? To the henry blanks, clearly nothing else is right, and the semis tiebreak win was hot. We will see how the cookie crumbles.

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Then we have the protagonist of the tour, Caterpinga, somehow benched for Ox. But if you look at the classiest linup its mostly turbo boomers or zoomers. You'd think their pick then would be Tace or damien but... BIHI? I get the whole tiebreak guy pick idea but I genuinely have never seen bihi play up from gen 6 outside of the SCL lower tiers. Does this mf really know what a glowking is?
Either way he's got a week to come up with some shite so I guess its ok. Honestly I still woulda preferred to see kenix picked and it's also a shame we don't get to see him end the tour one way or another. One of the only players I closely watched all of the replays, entertaining af, amazing tour and fucking wild dog plays, WP man. Hope you cook more in the future.

Prediction:

SS OU: BIHI vs Ox the Fox 40/60

I mean yeah the obv pick but bihi is smart and will know how to put up a fight

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Finally SPL finals tiebreak player 3didler è crazy ragazzi... Congrats bro, i remember many times we talked you said how much you wanted to improve at this game. But damn that was fast. Best of luck brother do your best :heart:

but imma real sinnoh probably doesnt lose twice + team evil boost SV OU: S1nn0hC0nfirm3d vs 3d 55/45 ggz

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These picks have soul. In the end its just about whether the player thinks they can snatch that one last win, tiers only matter so much. Best of luck to both teams and amazing performances so far.

But, there is no way The Sheet is happy about these picks. I'm sure ShakeItUp will have some words to say for the losing team..
 
Congregation of the Classiest (0) vs (0) Circus Maximus Tigers

SV OU: S1nn0hC0nfirm3d vs 3d - Who would have thought that 3d would be in a SPL final tiebreaker? Either way, he deserves his place. As I said in the last tiebreaker, Sinno is probably very confident in his battles and I think that will favor him here. I say a 55/45 for him.

SS OU: BIHI vs Ox the Fox - Great comeback from Ox, but I think this ends here. Everyone knows he's a great player, but he's been struggling a bit in recent years, so if BIHI focuses on that, he'll win this one. 51/49.

ADV OU: McMeghan vs baddummy - Fantastic tournament for Baddummy, and he can definitely take this one, but my gut tells me, just like I said in the last tiebreaker, McM won't lose 2 in a row in his tier, and here it would be 3 to the same opponent. I don't believe that can happen. 55/45.
 
Tiebreaks happen in almost every team tournament, teams even draft with tiebreaks in mind. Yet, no one can agree on what the optimal decisions are in these situations. There's an array of factors that teams use when picking both tiers and players to complicate thought processes. This year's SPL finals has brought one of the most compelling tiebreaks we've ever seen, so I'd love to break down the 3 matchups we have. I'm not allowed to predict outcomes of these games because I'm "cursed" or something, so I will settle for this analysis.

SV OU: S1nn0hC0nfirm3d vs 3d - Starting off with the most straightforward pick, the Classiest were always going to send Sinnoh into tiebreak, regardless of what happened in the regular series. That he lost an incredibly tight game in what was debatably a choke is irrelevant. Sinnoh has had a number of clutch wins when it's counted for all 3 team tournaments while 3d has absolutely 0 tiebreak experience. From a record perspective, the Tigers had a number of roughly equivalent options with no player separating themselves in SV, so going for the clutch aura that 3d has been exuding is hype as fuck. It's always interesting to see a rematch of a set from the normal series, and the level of pressure in tiebreaks here is huge for both players, with Sinnoh wanting redemption for his loss against 3d while the Tigers really want 3d to win this given the level of competition in the other two games of this tiebreak.

SS OU: BIHI vs Ox the Fox - For their tier in this tiebreak, the Tigers chose to opt for SS, which is a fascinating choice. This decision opened up the possibility of benching Kenix, who has (in my opinion) been their best player this season. I can understand the thought process that if you pick GSC, then you have no one to defend certain gens, but you've gotta just send your best players into tiebreak. Ox the Fox News had a brutal start to the season but has brought things back with a 5-1 record in his last 6 games. On the other side of things we have BIHI, who has in fact played games in generations with fairy type Pokemon, with 2 WCOPs and an SCL in SS under his belt. He's one of the best tiebreak "defenders" ever, and is up against an opponent who while on a hot streak is past his best days. I think that this was a hubris pick and the Tigers will get struck by divine punishment for leaving their best player at home.

ADV OU: McMeghan vs baddummy - The logic for the Classiest picking ADV is fairly straightforward, as McMeghan is one of the best ADV players of all time and is most comfortable in it out of all tiers in the tournament. However, his opponent is 9-2 and is 3-0 in their head to head matchup in the last 2 years. Another interesting part of the decision making process here is that by picking ADV, the Classiest forced Kenix out of the tiebreak, which was a sick play. By leaving Kenix in reserve for a potential defense with the SS pick, the Tigers opened the road for him to get benched here. The main alternative that people have posited here is BW, but Roro hasn't been consistently playing it in this tour and it's a very matchup heavy metagame. While Rick has acquitted himself admirably against Roro in the past couple seasons, he has had pretty fortunate RNG in a couple of those games. Roro is on a 6 game win streak in tiebreaks (admittedly with some luck of his own) while Rick has never played in one. The Tigers put a ton of trust in Rick by slotting him in here and you have to hope that the moment isn't too big for him.
 
teal6 said:
can someone better with expected values than me do the math
Click to expand...
Real answer assuming this website works, if we pretend every game is a 50/50, the odds of a twelve game series going to tiebreak is 22.56%. That means over say four years, we would expect 2.7 playoff tiebreaks in that time (I am ignoring regular season tiebreaks cause I have no idea where to start with that).

Obviously this year alone being 3 tiebreaks is going to skew that up (a 1.14% chance), and I’m too lazy to look at how many tiebreaks there have been in the previous three years.

If you assume the higher seed is as high as 60/40 in their average game, the odds of a tie go down to 17.66%. If you want other numbers, feel free to play around with the website.
 
In the 15 playoff series played since 2021, 10 went to tiebreak. However it should be noted that the six playoff series played SPL 12 and 13 were 10 game series instead of 12 where the odds of a tie increase to 24.61%.

Across the nine 12 game series played we would expect 2.03 tiebreaks to occur given a 22.56% chance of a tiebreak. However, 6 tiebreaks occurred in this time which had a 0.51% chance of happening.
Across the six 10 game series played we would expect 1.48 tiebreaks to occur given a 24.61% chance of a tiebreak. However, 4 tiebreaks occurred in this time which had a 3.21% chance of happening.

Overall, across the last 5 years of SPL the expected number of tiebreaks we expected to see was 3.51 tiebreaks. However we had 10 instead which I calculated to have a 0.038% chance of occurring using the Convolution of Bernoulli distributions (I think, I might have fucked it up).

(This also assuming all games are 50/50).
 
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