Metagame SV OU Metagame Discussion v4

[JackRG]

This is a legitimate point despite what the one liner before it may seem.

To answer the "legitimate" DnB concerns, Wellspring's biggest DnB argument isn't that it's not strong (it is incredibly strong), but that incredibly strong is the new bar to stick around in SV OU. It is true that not much switches in, but there are enough things holding it back that even Firepon didn't have hampering it. Tera Water paired with Water Absorb works for covering up some weaknesses, but also restricts it enough to where at least it's one Tera type and not 19 (acknowledging UltraSword already made this point but it's worth repeating). The item restriction also hurts its abilities to serve other roles beyond what its movepool provides. If you are looking for the best offensive counterplay though, First Impression abusers handle it really well. Lokix can checkmate it and even Slither Wing can take a hit or two from it in a pinch. It's still a top 5 mon in SV OU, but I have other things I break laptops in anger at over losing more.

I think this is overall a strong dnb post but I do have some counterarguments I'd like to share.

To answer the "legitimate" DnB concerns, Wellspring's biggest DnB argument isn't that it's not strong (it is incredibly strong), but that incredibly strong is the new bar to stick around in SV OU.

The difference lies in the fact that pretty much everything else in the tier has at the very least, somewhat decent answers. Zama is answers by a ton of things, gambit is answered by the metal birds, dnite is answered by a few things depending on set, darkrai is answers by zama and lu, etc. Unlike wellspring, there is at the very least decent answers to every other top threat.

Tera Water paired with Water Absorb works for covering up some weaknesses, but also restricts it enough to where at least it's one Tera type and not 19 (acknowledging UltraSword already made this point but it's worth repeating).

The spdef boost really cannot be overstated. Not only is changing into a pure water already removing several weaknesses, it's completely invalidating a ton of common revenge killers. This paired with the boost to ivy cudgel, makes being tera locked well worth it in my eyes.

The item restriction also hurts its abilities to serve other roles beyond what its movepool provides.

Yeah, it's locked to one item. That item is ABSURD. It's essentially a free expert belt boost (or, slightly weaker life orb if you prefer) with 0 drawbacks whatsoever. If this item wasn't locked to oger many offensive pokemon would love to run it. Sure, pon occasionally wishes it could hold boots or whatever, but it would still be running this item most of the time. It's that good.

If you are looking for the best offensive counterplay though, First Impression abusers handle it really well. Lokix can checkmate it and even Slither Wing can take a hit or two from it in a pinch.

Wing is incredibly niche (although, it is actually one of the better ogre checks, I will give you that). Lokix isn't a great answer since its almost always forced to run CB (no, boots is not a good set, I have no idea why people run it considering how much Lokix needs the power to pick up KOs), and oger can just switch out and have something else absorb it, now you have a mon that is forced to switch and give the opp a free turn, which is incredibly exploitable for a good player.

 

[FayaWizard]

If I had a nickel for every time someone made a conspiracy theory about how the council is ignoring the will of the people, I would be a very rich man.

Can you stop bringing American toxicity into this with randomly calling my take a conspiracy theory? As can be seen by the results of the OU surveys, it is a fact that whoever posts the survey results only posts honourable mentions/write-in mentions by the qualified playerbase, which shows that this is the group that the OU Council looks at regarding tiering action.

Honourable mentions/write-in mentions are only collected from the qualified playerbase because the total amount of responses is insanely large: you need to remember that the data is parsed through manually for the write-ins, and thus they need to go through each individual response if they were to mention all the write-ins.

Correlating to the last survey with total response numbers, March 1st 2024, there was a ratio of around 1 qualified response for every 8 general responses. Amongst the qualified, around 75 write-ins were mentioned. Accounting for multiple write-ins from one person, we can put the statistic to be around 60% of the qualified playerbase writing in.

Now, let's apply these ratios to the past two surveys (the June 2024 survey did not have qualified numbers). The May 2025 survey had around 94 qualified responses, which would mean there was about 752 general responses, with an estimated 451 general write-ins. The January 2025 survey had around 130 qualified, meaning 1040 general responses, with an estimated 624 general write-ins. Obviously, these numbers aren't exact, as the ratios can fluctuate over time, but even if only 70% of these estimated numbers are correct, that's around 300 and 400 write-ins! The amount of time and effort to go through each one, collect the statistics, and then convert them into usable data would require so much effort, we'd be lucky to get them back two weeks after the survey!

I'm not contesting that the Council favors qualified responses: that's just logical. But to claim they're completely ignoring the general playerbase is frankly stupid. There hasn't been any noticeable case where the general playerbase has shown enough support for a suspect/ban (Pre DLC 2 survey showed a 3.76 for Kingambit compared to a 3.26 from qualified, but on that same survey Sneasler scored a 4.29 on qualified, so it was obviously targeted first), and before someone here claims that Tera Blast or Tera itself has hit these thresholds, no, they haven't, and you're vastly overestimating your support.

People here are so quick to attribute malice whenever something they don't like happens, as if the world's out to get them. Sometimes, you need to take a step back, and think it through more logically. Not everyone is opposed to you, specifically. You won't always get what you want, and that's not some deep rooted conspiracy: that's just how it is.

 

[Avira]

If I had a nickel for every time someone made a conspiracy theory about how the council is ignoring the will of the people, I would be a very rich man.

This is uncalled for given you're replying to me, and I have never stated that the OU Council ignores the will of the people. I just favour the council tiering towards high level play, which should be how it works. If that wasn't the case, Toxapex would be suspected in Gen 7 'cause low ladder players struggle breaking it and whined constantly about Pex and Scald.

I do thank you, if what you say is right, for clarifying why the general playerbase's write-in responses aren't tallied down, but that first line from you was unnecessary as I'm not railing against the OU Council for perceived injustices.

People here are so quick to attribute malice whenever something they don't like happens, as if the world's out to get them. Sometimes, you need to take a step back, and think it through more logically. Not everyone is opposed to you, specifically. You won't always get what you want, and that's not some deep rooted conspiracy: that's just how it is.

Yeah, I completely agree with this. In fact, you're doing this right now in attributing me as writing a conspiracy theory for just being simply misinformed when I don't attribute ill intent to the council in your attempt at making a gotcha moment.

 

[FayaWizard]

That's only if you include the general playerbase as a whole, and since the OU Council only looks at the qualified demographic when determining what to suspect, it was Gliscor that had the highest survey score followed by Kyurem.

I believe it's perfectly true. Whenever Finchinator or someone on the OU Council cites the numbers regarding the decision to suspect something, the focus is almost always on the qualified demographic, and it has been stated more than once that Smogon tiers around high-level play, whether it be ladder or tournaments. Thus, I believe there's no reason to believe that the OU Council takes into the consideration the general playerbase as a whole when making tiering decisions.

You yourself say that the Council only factors in the qualified demographic! You are the one making the theories!

To avoid this being a one liner and to shift away from this comically similar situation from one yesterday, how does everyone feel about Sun as a playstyle right now? I feel like no one talks about it these days, but it still keeps popping up in tours and usage stats. Is Sun in a good place right now? What are its strengths/weaknesses?

 

[Avira]

You yourself say that the Council only factors in the qualified demographic! You are the one making the theories!

To avoid this being a one liner and to shift away from this comically similar situation from one yesterday, how does everyone feel about Sun as a playstyle right now? I feel like no one talks about it these days, but it still keeps popping up in tours and usage stats. Is Sun in a good place right now? What are its strengths/weaknesses?

Being misinformed doesn't mean one is necessarily making or intending to make a conspiracy theory, and this is part of what I dislike about American tribalism and the culture in the U.S., but I'll drop this subject now though since you've already explained why the general playerbase's write-ins aren't tallied down.

 

[Tio Chico]

My two cents on the Council's policy thing is that Tera Blast might be categorized as an inseparable element of Terastal, necessary for the mechanic to exist in its full complexity, and blacklisted it from discussions. As well future moves from future gens might also be tied to their respective mechanics, if exists.
P.S.: I hate both Terastal and Tera Blast.
Regarding action in the tier, aka suspect, I doubt we'll see any action during the OLT, which starts next Monday.
During or after cycle 4 is when I expect a survey.
So I'll hold back and not write a long post explaining why I'd want at least 7 Pokémon to be banned from the tier. And I'll be giving 5 points to anything, as I support any change. Even though we're in the second-best moment of SV OU, imo (losing only to post-ban Kyurem), we can still develop the tier and reduce the MU fish.

 

[UltraSword]

The difference lies in the fact that pretty much everything else in the tier has at the very least, somewhat decent answers.

But Wogerpon does have decent answers. Zamazenta, Dragonite, Lokix, Kyurem, Dragapult (especially with Wisp), Pecharunt, and even Ceruledge (if you keep hazards off your side) are all solid answers to this pokemon (and as a bonus, all of the ones I mentioned either are or can be physical attackers). Of course, it has ways of handling those answers but it is far more predictable than any other pokemon in the metagame due to its locked item slot and tera type.

The spdef boost really cannot be overstated. Not only is changing into a pure water already removing several weaknesses, it's completely invalidating a ton of common revenge killers. This paired with the boost to ivy cudgel, makes being tera locked well worth it in my eyes.

I do agree that the special defense boost is good, and it does partially make up for the tera lock. That being said, it still is locked to one type, and it isn't as good as regular Ogerpon's speed boost or Hearthflame's attack boost. It is still a good boost that make special attackers like Raging Bolt and Darkrai...very unhappy but it isn't the end all be all that you seem to be making it out to be.

 

[Moyashi]

But Wogerpon does have decent answers. Zamazenta, Dragonite, Lokix, Kyurem, Dragapult (especially with Wisp), Pecharunt, and even Ceruledge (if you keep hazards off your side) are all solid answers to this pokemon (and as a bonus, all of the ones I mentioned either are or can be physical attackers). Of course, it has ways of handling those answers but it is far more predictable than any other pokemon in the metagame due to its locked item slot and tera type.

Lokix is hard to fit while Dragonite and Kyurem are vulnerable to Play Rough variants (with Kyurem also losing to fighting coverage and Dragonite needing to maintain Multiscale). Pecha is a check but it struggles to handle SD Knock Off variants if not at full health, and how in any universe it Ceruledge, a fire type, a check to Wellspring, a water type? And no focus sash is not an answer. Zama is a great soft stop but it’s still capable of being crit and broken through. Outside of Edge and Kyurem, these all are soft answers depending on moveset which is something you can’t easily tell early on, especially on SD. There’s not much warning what 4th move it has. So calling it predictable isn’t it.

Item isn’t a downside because it would never want another item anyways, as its mask grants a ridiculous power boost. And Tera lock is less of a problem when you consider the strength of said type and the extra spdef boost.

That being said, it still is locked to one type, and it isn't as good as regular Ogerpon's speed boost or Hearthflame's attack boost. It is still a good boost that make special attackers like Raging Bolt and Darkrai...very unhappy but it isn't the end all be all that you seem to be making it out to be.

Water is a much better Tera than Grass to be locked into offensively, as the speed boost on Grasspon largely winds up useless because it’s walled too easily while the spdef boost makes revenge killing it harder.

Wellspring is most felt in the builder and its that building impact in conjunction with its variety of sets which make it troublesome.

, how does everyone feel about Sun as a playstyle right now? I feel like no one talks about it these days, but it still keeps popping up in tours and usage stats. Is Sun in a good place right now? What are its strengths/weaknesses?

I’m not sure how to feel about sun. It’s certainly not a weak playstyle and is viable at high level but at the same time it feels like the structures can be a bit rigid if you want more consistency. Hatterene feels non negotiable since it deters most rock setters, Ninetails (or Torkoal but I think Tails is better) is naturally required, Tusk for spinning and general role compression… like I know there are different sun structures people build and it’s not impossible but I dunno. I have a hard time not seeing the style as a little match up fishy still. I’m very open to having my mind broadened and am interested in seeing some of the unique successful sun teams that people have used though.

 

[UltraSword]

Lokix is hard to fit while Dragonite and Kyurem are vulnerable to Play Rough variants (with Kyurem also losing to fighting coverage and Dragonite needing to maintain Multiscale). Pecha is a check but it struggles to handle SD Knock Off variants if not at full health, and how in any universe it Ceruledge, a fire type, a check to Wellspring, a water type? And no focus sash is not an answer. Zama is a great soft stop but it’s still capable of being crit and broken through. Outside of Edge and Kyurem, these all are soft answers depending on moveset which is something you can’t easily tell early on, especially on SD. There’s not much warning what 4th move it has. So calling it predictable isn’t it.

Item isn’t a downside because it would never want another item anyways, as its mask grants a ridiculous power boost. And Tera lock is less of a problem when you consider the strength of said type and the extra spdef boost.



Water is a much better Tera than Grass to be locked into offensively, as the speed boost on Grasspon largely winds up useless because it’s walled too easily while the spdef boost makes revenge killing it harder.

Wellspring is most felt in the builder and its that building impact in conjunction with its variety of sets which make it troublesome.



I’m not sure how to feel about sun. It’s certainly not a weak playstyle and is viable at high level but at the same time it feels like the structures can be a bit rigid if you want more consistency. Hatterene feels non negotiable since it deters most rock setters, Ninetails (or Torkoal but I think Tails is better) is naturally required, Tusk for spinning and general role compression… like I know there are different sun structures people build and it’s not impossible but I dunno. I have a hard time not seeing the style as a little match up fishy still. I’m very open to having my mind broadened and am interested in seeing some of the unique successful sun teams that people have used though.

Ok so I will say you were right about Ceruledge that is my mistake lol. Still though I never said these pokemon were perfect checks nor the only ones. I know that Wogerpon has quite a bit of set variety but pretty much every other pokemon in the metagame also does. I was just saying that it is easier to predict than (at the very least) most pokemon that are viable in ou not that is predictable period.

As for the item, yes, it is...incredible but I am certain that it isn't the only item it could want. For example, leftovers would be appreciated for passive healing that it could definitely use. Choice band could be another good option as while the choice lock does suck, it provides the oppurtunity for Wogerpon to be an even stronger wallbreaker/pivot than it already was. Of course, this is all theory crafting, and it might still want the mask above all of that but that is my belief.

I do agree that water is a better tera than grass (in fact it is probably better than fire too) but my point wasn't about that or arguing that normal Ogerpon is a better pokemon. I am just saying that the special defense boost isn't the best possible one. It is definitely quite good and it definitely makes revenge killing Wogerpon harder, but it is not the the best thing she could have gotten.

 

[Goobing Fire]

How? Nothing it does is a necessity and it has an undeniable impact on building that can be argued to be restricting. I’m not sold on it being so much a problem like it is in other meta games but it’s not keeping the tier together in any way.

It keeps Ting Lu, alo, and garg in check while dettering fat balances and stall. Without it all these things will rise, which is bad for the tier.

 

[DartTamarin519]

It keeps Ting Lu, alo, and garg in check while dettering fat balances and stall. Without it all these things will rise, which is bad for the tier.

That seems quite subjective, some people rather the slower play styles. Those bulkier Pokémon are easier to handle in the team builder than some of the offensive mons in the tier. It's not game over, because bulkier teams are more viable.

 

[Goobing Fire]

That seems quite subjective, some people rather the slower play styles. Those bulkier Pokémon are easier to handle in the team builder than some of the offensive mons in the tier. It's not game over, because bulkier teams are more viable.

Yes it's a matter of opinion, those who prefer slower playstyles would be happy to see oger gone while those who prefer the current fast paced entertaining meta would miss it

 

[Welcome to mars]

Sun isn’t too hot rn (pun totally intended), but one of its highlight pokemon rn is venusaur, which is one of the best chlorophyll mons in the game with growth + giga drain shenanigans and is a great weather baller, it can also use solar beam on non life orb sets to unleash total devastation on non resists. An interesting development in sun is how waking wake has began to run modest sets that maximise its power and make it a killer breaker rather than a mon that uses proto to effectively get both choice specs and choice scarf, probably because specs proto speed is not very good in this current meta.

We should all use carkol on sun to counter opposing sun

 

[Moyashi]

keeps Ting Lu, alo, and garg in check while dettering fat balances and stall. Without it all these things will rise, which is bad for the tier.

Ting-Lu is already a top 2 Pokemon in the tier. Wellspring leaving wouldn’t suddenly make it #1. Garg is great regardless of Wellspring, and in fact their dynamic is pretty balanced. Wellspring can threaten out Garg but Garg can also pressure Wellspring and keep it from switching in freely.

Yes it's a matter of opinion, those who prefer slower playstyles would be happy to see oger gone while those who prefer the current fast paced entertaining meta would miss it

Wellspring leaving wouldn’t suddenly make the tier super fat heavy, it’s far from the only pokemon capable of pressuring these styles. Also insinuating that the fast paced meta is naturally entertaining, as though it was objectively true, just isn’t helping your argument. Some people might not find it entertaining. Just like some don’t find balance heavy metas as fun. But there’s no one better than the other inherently

 

[ShieldPhoenix]

It keeps Ting Lu, alo, and garg in check while dettering fat balances and stall. Without it all these things will rise, which is bad for the tier.

Idk I think "if wellspring gets banned, fat teams will be better, which is a bad thing" is an ineffective argument for keeping it in the tier. Like wellspring hurts standard balance teams more than fatter teams, because they can’t just afford to have Amoonguss + double defog to check it forever. Additionally, even when wellspring leaves you still have lots of breakers like Specs Kyurem, and if you really wanna win against stall you have stuff like CB Hoopa-Unbound, and tech like Future Sight + Roar Zama and Tera Ghost + Magma Storm + Taunt Heatran. Also it’s pretty funny how you say Ting-Lu being popular is bad for the tier when it’s keeping a ton of otherwise broken mons in check like Raging Bolt. Also even if let’s say fat balance and stall DOES become broken with wellspring gone (which I doubt), we can always suspect Mola etc in that case.

 

[Goobing Fire]

Idk I think "if wellspring gets banned, fat teams will be better, which is a bad thing" is an ineffective argument for keeping it in the tier. Like wellspring hurts standard balance teams more than fatter teams, because they can’t just afford to have Amoonguss + double defog to check it forever. Additionally, even when wellspring leaves you still have lots of breakers like Specs Kyurem, and if you really wanna win against stall you have stuff like CB Hoopa-Unbound, and tech like Future Sight + Roar Zama and Tera Ghost + Magma Storm + Taunt Heatran. Also it’s pretty funny how you say Ting-Lu being popular is bad for the tier when it’s keeping a ton of otherwise broken mons in check like Raging Bolt. Also even if let’s say fat balance and stall DOES become broken with wellspring gone (which I doubt), we can always suspect Mola etc in that case.

Bolt is not close to broken even without Ting Lu, and something like specs kyurem isn't as splashable on teams as Wellspring. To your last point I disagree that balance wouldn't become broken, and if you keep just suspecting and banning the next best thing eventually the tier will lose all it's identity.

 

[Moyashi]

To your last point I disagree that balance wouldn't become broken,

You’ve got no basis for this, especially right now. It seems to happen no matter the tier no matter the gen, that some players will fear monger that a potential ban will make balance or far too powerful or common (the latter isn’t even an issue).

Beyond that, no one is talking about suspecting the next best thing. There’s argument you can make to defend Wellspring that don’t rely on trying to make people worried about a problem that isn’t even showing any signs of becoming real.

 

[JackRG]

Everyone said the exact same thing about the roaring moon ban, fear mongering about the rise of fat and spoiler alert, that didn’t really happen at all. What really ended up happening is we saw the rise of new threats like ceruledge (granted, these new threats are FAR more manageable than moon was). I don’t understand why people continue to mindlessly fear monger when almost every single ban since dlc2 has improved the metagame

 

[Avira]

Everyone said the exact same thing about the roaring moon ban, fear mongering about the rise of fat and spoiler alert, that didn’t really happen at all. What really ended up happening is we saw the rise of new threats like ceruledge (granted, these new threats are FAR more manageable than moon was). I don’t understand why people continue to mindlessly fear monger when almost every single ban since dlc2 has improved the metagame

Yeah, fat hasn't really notably improved after Roaring Moon's ban, and certain Ceruledge sets are even more demonic against fat than many Roaring Moon sets given Ceruledge doesn't exactly have widely consistent defensive counterplay with strong tools in Bitter Blade and Taunt. I'd go further than that and say that every ban since DLC2 has indeed improved the meta. It improved with Archaludon's ban, improved with Volcarona's ban, and improved with Gouging Fire's ban, Palafin's ban, and Roaring Moon's ban. The meta is finally in a decent place after Roaring Moon's ban, which was one of the more necessary bans of the generation.

 

[Goobing Fire]

You’ve got no basis for this, especially right now. It seems to happen no matter the tier no matter the gen, that some players will fear monger that a potential ban will make balance or far too powerful or common (the latter isn’t even an issue).

Beyond that, no one is talking about suspecting the next best thing. There’s argument you can make to defend Wellspring that don’t rely on trying to make people worried about a problem that isn’t even showing any signs of becoming real.

Ofc there are other things limiting wellspring, susceptible to hazards, pech, lack of item flexibility, priority, faster threats etc. Everyone knows about that, I'm focusing on this point because I believe it's an accurate forecast based on common sense, not fear mongering.