US West (2) vs. (1) Italy
SV OU: Attribute vs. zS (51-49) even when writing the other two predicts, i didn't know what i'd predict here. two friends going at it, with very different reasons to favor them in this insane tb pairing. Bute has been on a nearly unrivaled team tour run since scl - 7-2 7-2 3-1. if he had 9 wcop games it isn't unreasonable to think he'd 7-2 again. this 3-1 indeed comes with very solid opponents, no backyardigans as he'd say. i'd say his record has been stronger than zS's, but zS has had a career tournament where he more or less has won most games with relative comfort. He's quietly been building his résumé and has had a solid run of tournaments for a while now, a road leading to this moment where Italy's all-time roster trusts him the most to carry the flag in tb. I think Bute is more proven, tho zS is extremely believable here & italy will absolutely make sure he is ready for this one, just as all of his games have been. In a tragic irony i think this game is gonna come down to who has a more playable MU, although I'd hope for a game where it's relatively even & both players can just duke it out. pretty unremarkable to say that i think it comes down to the SV, but it do be feeling that way. Ultimately I think zS hasn't looked insanely better than bute this tour & bute's body of work shows he's up for this moment. gl both.
SM OU: emforbes vs. Empo (45-55) this is the prediction i'm writing first. i'm currently 14-5 in predictions, yet two of those are incorrectly predicting emforbes losing. Those games were vs blunder & tricking, and now he faces empo. He's certainly been up against it. If you asked me prior to this tournament whether sv or sm was his better tier, i'd have said sm given his struggles in sv & great display in sm that one spl, where he did indeed beat empo. Nonetheless he's 5-0, 3-0 in playoffs, and ultimately has the 2nd best SV record of the tournament vs non-freebies at that. It's further worth saying that he doesn't seem like the type who would rattle in front of empo at all, even given the stage.
This is a lot of talk in a largely positive light for someone i'm predicting to lose. But with empo, how many words are really needed? the guy is emphatically him and although this trait is more evident in individual tournaments, i'd argue finals tiebreakers evokes a relatively similar environment to deep run indiv games. emforbes has been playing some of the better singles pokemon games of his life, but empo is looking as good at 6-1 where that just feels like a standard SM record for him. Given his sheet & indiv track record, he's unmatched at playing consistently great pokemon and i think that's where his real advantage comes in. You just know you're so likely to get an elite showing that will be tough to overcome, even tho I truly think emforbes is up to the task.
SV Ubers: Frito vs. Punny (52-48) the ramifications of lower tiers in wcop probably have never been so impactful as this moment, where italy more reasonably fields punny than finding a place for santu, who indeed is 7-0 & has had an alltime year for himself. Punny has also won slam & is more reasonably associated with lower tiers, although i can't pretend I'm familiar with his ubers prowess beyond "it's punny in lower tiers, he will be very competitive." It's a very interesting counterpick by west over sv, and honestly feels like the correct choice they made. Time will tell and mons is mons, ofc. Naturally this choice has been made easier by Frito having a great first outing at 5-1, beating entro & earning themselves a spot here where it matters most. I think favoring Frito again is correct, but the pressure of this spot seems pretty wild & punny is no stranger to performing under pressure at all.
current record 14-5, really memorable and cool tb. i wrote in my prior predicts that i'd favor italy in tb but i didn't really consider ubers, which again feels the correct pick to have a (slight) edge. don't have a personal pref, gl both