VGC 2025 Regulation I Metagame Discussion

- Zamazenta + Shadow Rider will win Worlds
- Incineroar will have the highest non-restricted Day 2 usage (and since I think too many will bet on that, I'll make it top 2 and Rillaboom will be the 2nd)
- Miraidon will have the 2nd highest Day 2 usage (Shadow Rider 1st, but Day 1 will be the inverse)
- Finals will be Ice Rider + Miraidon vs Shadow Rider + Zama
- Best placing Zacian will top 32 (since I feel that's too specific: breakthrough Restricted will be a single Specs Terapagos on Top 8, although I can also imagine Kyogre there instead, and Koraidon I don't consider breakthrough)
- Worlds will be won by someone who got into Worlds since at least the SwSh era.
 
WORLDS PREDICTIONS
  • Miraidon + Calyrex-I will be the Restricted Combination that will win Worlds
  • Incineroar will be the most used Non-Restricted Pokemon on Day 2
  • Calyrex-S will be the 2nd most used Restricted Pokemon on Day 1
  • The finals matchup will be Lunala + Koraidon vs Miraidon + Calyrex-I
  • The best placing Zacian-C will be Top 32
  • Worlds will be won by a player who started playing in S/V
The format I used if anyone else would like to try:

Which Restricted Combination will win Worlds?
What Non-Restricted Pokemon will have the highest usage on Day 2?
What Restricted Pokemon will have the 2nd highest usage on Day 1?
What will the finals matchup be?
Where will the best placing Zacian-C be?
Will Worlds be won by a player that started in S/V?
-Miraidon/Calyrex-Ice is my prediction, I agree on that because lots of people will probably have checks to CSR/Zama.
-Oh yeah, Incin, no contest here, probably both days lol.
-We know Miraidon is gonna be first, but I would say CSR, like you said.
-Lunala/Miraidon or CSR/Zama against CIR/Miraidon
-Top 8, someone bout to cook up an insane run with Swordfish trust.
-No, though it would be cool.
 
Day 1 Worlds Recap

The stream matches were pretty hype, with them being listed below:
Paul Ruiz vs Eric Rios
:calyrex-shadow::miraidon::incineroar::urshifu-rapid-strike::clefairy::whimsicott: vs :calyrex-ice::koraidon::incineroar::flutter mane::raging bolt::landorus:
I really wanted to cover this set because it really shows skill expression in my opinion and was a really fun watch, probably my favorite match so far. I'm just going to cover game 1 though, as it was easily the best (in my opinion) and this is also kind of draining because of how much happens at once lmao, wanna keep this short and get this out before midnight (which won't happen spoiler).

Pregame Notes:
- Paul's matchup is pretty rough, especially against Flutter Mane under Sun, which heavily threatens his team.
- Although Paul can obtain the speed advantage with Whimsicott to circumvent this, Eric can capitalize on this by Fake Out cycling, bulking out Tailwind with Calyrex-I and Substitute Landorus, or priority spamming with Raging Bolt.
- Eric looks very good into this (would be better if Calyrex-I had Trick Room...)
- Paul's team: https://pokepast.es/37beef0be6b5e888
- Eric's team: https://pokepast.es/33364224e10ca84a

Game 1:
- Paul decides to lead his Calyrex-S and Incineroar, to which Eric matches with a lead of his own; Flutter Mane and Koraidon.
- Paul hard swaps Incineroar into Whimsicott and goes for Tera Fairy on Calyrex-S, calling that Koraidon would Protect in fear of Incineroar's Fake Out. Flutter Mane uses Shadow Ball into the now Fairy-type Calyrex-S and gets a Special Defense drop, at the cost of losing its Focus Sash to Astral Barrage.
- Eric, knowing that he is at risk of losing a powerful piece, swaps out Flutter Mane for Incineroar. Paul, however, knowing that his Calyrex-S drops to a Tera Normal Icy Wind from Flutter Mane + Flare Blitz from Koraidon, swaps out his Calyrex-S into his own Incineroar and Encore locks Koraidon into Protect, calling that it wouldn't swap. Even better for Paul, Eric decides to use Tera on Koraidon to avoid fainting to Draining Kiss.
- Eric swaps out his rather useless Koraidon into Calyrex-I while Paul sets Tailwind with Whimsicott. Calyrex-I would've also eaten a Knock Off from Paul's Incineroar, but Eric's Incineroar denied that with Fake Out.
- Paul swaps his Whimsicott, which is threatening nothing at all, into his Urshifu-R as Calyrex-I Protects. Incineroar launches a Flare Blitz into Calyrex-I, as Eric's Incineroar uses U-turn into Urshifu-R, notably breaking its Focus Sash. With U-turn, Eric brings in Koraidon.
- Afraid of Collision Course, Paul swaps his Incineroar into Whimsicott and uses Detect on his Urshifu-R to reposition. As expected, Eric uses Collision Course into the freshly placed Whimsicott spot as Calyrex-I attempts a Leech Seed into the Protected Urshifu-R. The sun also fades this turn.
- Now afraid of Glacial Lance or Flame Charge, Paul brings back out Incineroar in the place of Whimsicott which also lowers Calyrex-I's Attack stat thanks to Intimidate. Eric, however, is scared of the possibility that Tailwind + Surging Strikes will KO his Koraidon, so he swaps in Flutter Mane as a sacrificial piece. Urshifu-R KOes Flutter Mane as it and Incineroar both comfortably take a Glacial Lance from Calyrex-I.
- Incineroar presses Fake Out into Calyrex-I, likely preventing it from using a Leech Seed. Unfortunately for Paul, this means that Koraidon is able to take out Incineroar. The Tera Fire Koraidon does, however, almost get KOed from Surging Strikes.
- As Calyrex-S is brought in as a replacement for Incineroar, Koraidon swaps out into Incineroar to avoid being KOed by Astral Barrage. Paul accounts for this and uses Close Combat into the now Incineroar on top of Astral Barrage, KOing it whilst leaving Calyrex-I on low HP thanks to Astral Barrage.
- With low HP on both of his Pokemon, Eric Rios loses game 1 to Paul's Astral Barrage.

Some key things to note that (in my opinion) make this a special game:
- Paul really shows why he is a former world champion, being able to make really good calls on Eric (who mind you is a amazing player in their own regard) and win off of skill, even if something like the Shadow Ball SpDef drop forced him to change his game plan a bit (considering he would've been KOed by a Moonblast).
- My favorite part was probably how Urshifu-R was positioned. Paul made sure to stall out enough of Sun so that, when it was needed, Urshifu-R could easily press Surging Strikes.
- In the end of this mini rant, we see how matchups don't mean everything; if you're good enough, you can overcome it (proof: Paul won the set).

Michael Kelsch (MichaelDerBeste2) vs Marco Silva (marcofiero)
:calyrex-shadow::zamazenta-crowned::chien-pao::dragonite::ogerpon-cornerstone::amoonguss: vs :calyrex-shadow::zamazenta-crowned::incineroar::ogerpon-hearthflame::raging bolt::rillaboom:

Christopher Han vs Luca Ceribelli
:Calyrex-shadow::zamazenta-crowned::chien-pao::ogerpon-hearthflame::Raging bolt::whimsicott: vs :lunala::miraidon::incineroar::urshifu-rapid-strike::whimsicott::ursaluna:

Mattie Morgan vs Yuma Kinugawa
:calyrex-shadow::zamazenta-crowned::chien-pao::urshifu-rapid-strike::raging bolt::whimsicott: vs :calyrex-shadow::zamazenta-crowned::smeargle::tornadus::raging bolt::rillaboom:

Shoma Honami vs Yoshitaka Izawa
:calyrex-ice::koraidon::Incineroar::chi-yu::flutter mane::raging bolt: vs :ho-oh::koraidon::Incineroar::flutter mane::iron treads::Raging bolt:

Giovanni Cischke vs Mao Harada
:lunala::koraidon::chi-yu::flutter mane::brute bonnet::ursaluna: vs :calyrex-shadow::koraidon::incineroar::clefairy::flutter mane::rillaboom:

Víctor Medina vs Justin Tang
:calyrex-shadow::zamazenta-crowned::smeargle::tornadus::raging bolt::rillaboom: vs :calyrex-ice::Groudon::chi-yu::flutter mane::Raging bolt::jumpluff:

Wolfe Glick vs Marcus Dion
:lunala::koraidon::incineroar::flutter mane::amoonguss::ursaluna: vs :calyrex-ice::miraidon::incineroar::volcarona::annihilape::ogerpon-wellspring:

Some Players to look out for in Day 2
Ko Tsukide - Only undefeated player going into Day 2
James Baek - Kind of washed but can probably pull some wins (nooooo I'm not biased bc of regieleki)
Yoshitaka Izawa - Won on stream against a really good player, want to see how well Ho-Oh will perform.
Víctor Medina - Great player still chasing that title, will his first be Worlds?
Mao Harada - Also won on stream against a good player
Montana Mott - Won a regional to qualify, Dragonite user and strong player
Hirofumi Kimura - Highly decorated player, cant wait to see how far they make it
Michael Kelsch - MY GOAT
Justin Tang - A lot of people's favorites, relatively new (for reference he started around when I started iirc) to the scene and I think can do really well
Zee Costagliola - our beloved zee, world champ arc?
Luca Ceribelli - Our current world champion, has had pretty consistent showings
Alex Underhill - goated player
Christopher Han - excited for this considering this is his first worlds in masters
Patrick Connors - FLORIDA MAN
Joji Kaieda - strong player expect to do well
Aaron Brock - idk man I put him here bc I've been seeing his name in regionals
Nick Navarre - nails the goat
Kian Campbell - the last Zacian player :D
Cedric Bernier - iirc this is talonvgc, chill guy
Chuppa Cross IV - bro deserves the win
Wolfe Glick - everyone's favorite, need I say less?
Nils Dunlop - my other goat

I probably forgot some people but its like 1 am

for some reason my screen shots of the usage stats aren't working but ill have them up sometime, but for now....

Restricted Pairs:
Calyrex-S + Zamazenta-C (25.3%)
Calyrex-I + Miraidon (20.5%)
Lunala + Miraidon (8.1%)
Calyrex-S + Miraidon (7.5%)

Restricted Pokemon:
Miraidon (47.7%)
Calyrex-S (41.8%)
Zamazenta-C (33.2%)
Calyrex-I (32.3%)
Koraidon (11.9%)
Lunala (11.6%)
Kyogre (7.5%)
Groudon (7%)

Non-Restricted Pokemon:
Incineroar (56.6%)
Urshifu-R (32.1%)
Rillaboom (26.7%)
Raging Bolt (25.3%)
Amoonguss (21.3%)
Smeargle (18.1%)
Chien-Pao (17.8%)
Whimsicott (17%)
Volcarona (14.8%)
Flutter Mane (13.5%)
Landorus (13.5%)
Farigiraf (11.9%)
 
Worlds Top 8 Teams (Masters):

8th: Victor Medina.
7th: Mao Harada
6th: Michael Kelsch
5th: Ko Tsukide
4th: Montana Mott
3rd: Hirofumi Kimura

Finalists

James Evans
Giovanni Cischke

  • Most common restricted is Shadowrex. No surprise there, it is extremely cheap and annoying forms devastating cores with Koraidon and Zamazenta.
  • This is surprising though: 2nd most common restricted is Koraidon, with 3 of them taking home Gold, Silver and Bronze. Last year Miraidon took home the gold, this year the other paradox Dragon is taking it home.
  • Incineroar is the most used non-restricted. Again, no surprise there considering how splashable it is. If it wins this year, it will be the first Pokemon to win Worlds 4 times.
  • Smeargle proves it's still viable after losing Dark Void with 2 top 8 appearances, 1 even in top 4. Hirofumi's set is so cool (Follow Me, Spore, Spiky Shield, Ruination). It both lets Smeargle stay on the field longer, and gives it something to do if Taunted. Neither of them ran Decorate, interestingly.
  • Only 2 teams in the whole Top 8 don't have redirection.
  • Lunala makes 2 appearances, including grand finals. If it wins, it will have 2 golds to its name
  • Brute Bonnet will win worlds! I remember everyone deriding it as just Amoonguss with worse typing, but here we are!
  • Not as many Urshifus as I thought. Only 1 in the whole top 8
  • Same with Ice Calyrex. I was sure top 8 would be dominated by the Miraidon + Icerex core, but only 1 of each made it.
  • Assault Vest Chien Pao! 2 of them! I can't believe someone looked at Chien Pao and thought "Assault Vest". It clearly worked though, so whatever you were smoking gave you good insight.
My predictions for the finals
My money would be on Giovanni, as I feel his team is more favourable in this matchup. I don't think James's ShadowRex can do much against Giovanni's team, since they have 2 Dark types and a Normal type, as well as a Wide Guard user. I wouldn't be suprised if they just straight up didn't bring it. I also want Giovanni to win, since I don't want Incineroar or Shadowrex to win worlds.
 
I've just realised Psychic Seed Lunala is kind of perfect.
With a bit of bulk, it can take Life Orb CSR Astral Barrage, or a combination of Glacial Lance and Electro Drift, while still reaching max special attack and the crucial 124 speed benchmark.
36+ Atk Calyrex-Ice Glacial Lance vs. 204 HP / 4 Def Shadow Shield Lunala: 64-76 (26.8 - 31.9%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Hadron Engine Miraidon Electro Drift vs. +1 204 HP / 4 SpD Lunala in Electric Terrain: 144-169 (60.5 - 71%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
100 SpA Life Orb Calyrex-Shadow Astral Barrage vs. +1 204 HP / 4 SpD Shadow Shield Lunala: 182-218 (76.4 - 91.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Additionally, Knock Off is weakened by the lack of an item, even though it's not boosting the Defence stat as Electric Seed does.
4 Atk Incineroar Knock Off vs. 204 HP / 4 Def Shadow Shield Lunala: 92-110 (38.6 - 46.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
I've had a lot of fun using it alongside Ursaluna in Trick Room with Expanding Force pressure. This team doesn't like Weezing, but Expanding Force can KO it due to its low special bulk, even if they invest quite a bit into Special Defence.
252+ SpA Lunala Expanding Force vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Neutralizing Gas Weezing-Galar: 174-206 (101.1 - 119.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ SpA Lunala Expanding Force vs. 252 HP / 100+ SpD Neutralizing Gas Weezing-Galar: 168-198 (97.6 - 115.1%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO
252+ SpA Lunala Expanding Force vs. 252 HP / 140+ SpD Neutralizing Gas Weezing-Galar: 158-188 (91.8 - 109.3%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
It becomes a roll if they invest more, but your partner like Incineroar or Koraidon or whoever can patch that up.
https://pokepast.es/456435bbb6ea2509
 
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