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Popcorn Mafia 4 - Game Over, Village Wins

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finished my reread

town

airc (clueless day 1, no agenda, pushed by scum - giving me strong "new at mafia and has bad reads as a result but is giving a genuine attempt")

tommy (the only person who actually gives a fuck about the game not stalling to try and get people to play, i think he's town and if not so be it in a game with so much inactivity - that said I'm finding a noticable lack of reads in the posts Tommy please rectify this)


middle

a fairy (I keep wanting to town read them but my gut is refusing to believe it)

phoopes (tonally consistent, I believe they're town, but there isn't enough evidence to override the back of the mind paranoia that their game would resemble a new player scum game, they really haven't felt like they're trying to push the game state forward)

pebble (good solving, good response post to clouds flip - umprompted TR on conf!town miyami and conf!town flanders, on interactions i believe their town, on their own merits something isn't clicking for me in their analysis - noting that realiti had them as a top scum read, also noting that I dropped them four slots progressively as I was working through my reads)

des (clouds shaded them. thats their entire content.)


unclear - both these players I can't get coherent readings from, both have tonally town indicators but posts I find somewhat scum motivated, but neither with enough content to determine if they actually are or are just bad town reads

Evie (1073 is a good post)
joey (1045 is such a wierd thing to say as any alignment)



shot pool

pulsar (likely T/S with celever)

celever (too many scum indicators to count with a handful of town, skipper literally only interacting with celever is a massive red flag when they defended each other; if I'm wrong and he's town I don't think he can ever actually get cleared and his flip strongly influences the other two in this pool)

DBD (i do not believe their content generation is genuine, throughout the thread i keep getting the feeling of someone doing what they know they should be doing without feeling true conviction behind it; mind meld with some similar feelings from AP and miyami - extreme bussing of celever if paired; i really do not like their focus on the airc/pebble supposed interaction that i dont think exists, feels like they want to push a double misfire; reminds me a lot of my middle era scum games where I wouldn't contribute to the thread on a live basis but I'd post a lot of retroactives to give myself time to stay internally consistent - if scum, leaning heavily into bussing and end game win equity; if town - good reads all game)



disjointed observations

celever DBD interaction page 2
celever very early game self-conscious of SRs
a fairy post 61 reading authentic self-assessment of scum gunbearer choice
skipper celever interaction page 3, continued page 4, still only talking to celever page 6, STILL only talking about him ay page 7 - very weird celever/dbd/skipper page 3 interaction
phoopes tonally town
DBD post 72 very defensive of inactives and unusually concerned about the possibility of an early game misfire
airc completely aimless day 1
clouds slightly shading des
pulsar/celever t/s

lots of DBD/celever distancing if paired - extreme distancing

evie/joey is not s/s (i dont remember why i wrote this, i think it was a evie post about joey that seemed too pointed to be scum bussing)




I want to shoot in the following order:

DBD > Celever > pulsar > joey > des > pebble > evie > phooped > a fairy > tommy > airc
Quoting for reference though I can't do the fancy color coding from my phone
 
DBD (i do not believe their content generation is genuine, throughout the thread i keep getting the feeling of someone doing what they know they should be doing without feeling true conviction behind it; mind meld with some similar feelings from AP and miyami - extreme bussing of celever if paired; i really do not like their focus on the airc/pebble supposed interaction that i dont think exists, feels like they want to push a double misfire; reminds me a lot of my middle era scum games where I wouldn't contribute to the thread on a live basis but I'd post a lot of retroactives to give myself time to stay internally consistent - if scum, leaning heavily into bussing and end game win equity; if town - good reads all game)

Oh hey look literally all of this came true and airc and pebble both flipped town
 
I’m fine with dbd shot today and also I’m fine with going with you today if it was in my power but obviously it’s not

I think like you could’ve distanced well enough to be mafia but oocams razor says it’s more likely it exists in celever/dbd

Could you be partner with one still possibly yes but I’m going to go for most likely option that you are town at this point and trust you I guess

Yesterday I kind of had a Texas and pebble or celever and dbd world, if pebble was mafia I was going to try get you shot next but obviously pebble was town so that is meaningful
 
You know that people are finally going to shoot where I want, you know that you're caught as a scum team, you're hoping to gain town cred by jumping on the bus before the follow up shot
 
me and tommy posted in literally the same second I think, at least this was up on my monitor and they changed to "1 minute ago" in the same second

so like, does it apply to me and Tommy orrr

also I've been scumreading DBD since wayyy before it was cool
 
think like you could’ve distanced well enough to be mafia but oocams razor says it’s more likely it exists in celever/dbd
There's distancing and there's hard pushing multiple wagons on confirmed scum (to be confirmed in cel/dbd case), I truly think based on my solving the only case against me as mafia is pure paranoia of playing an insanely high level deep wolf as town game. I'm flattered but I'm not that good an actor.

On merits I think I've been genuine and authentic the entire game, transparent with my reads and pushes, clear about who I think is scum and why, and who I'm uncertain about, and the flips have played out to show me that my pulse on the game has been accurate.
 
me and tommy posted in literally the same second I think, at least this was up on my monitor and they changed to "1 minute ago" in the same second

so like, does it apply to me and Tommy orrr

also I've been scumreading DBD since wayyy before it was cool
You and DBD are partners and finally getting shot, your attempt to distance now that people are willing to shoot where I want has literally nothing to do with Tommy. Nice try at deflecting.
 
My last post…

At this point (I forget if I’ve said it before) but Texas is almost a lock town for me. The interaction between him and fairy screamed town vs town to me and obviously fairy is town so he’s probably my biggest town read.

I do not feel the same about Tommy vs Celever though, I think Tommy is one of the most townie people in the game and Tommy’s right, the tunneling on him is insane lol. I don’t think Celever (based off vibes and what I know) would be pulling the “I’m trying to get the gun as town” play that Tommy mentioned so I’m forced to consider him maf.

Convinced at this point Texas and Tommy are both town. Texas has to be lock town. I’m okay with following his lead and shooting either Celever or DBD.
 
You and DBD are partners and finally getting shot, your attempt to distance now that people are willing to shoot where I want has literally nothing to do with Tommy. Nice try at deflecting.
it's just not accurate historically lol, I'm p sure I was previously accused of tunnelling DBD like 2 weeks ago
 
This is nonsensical from your POV, your implied team is Tommy+Evie+Phoopes
well I do think Tommy + Phoopes have a massive amount of scumbud eq, it's slightly more from Tommy's side but phoopes has largely agreed with Tommy the entire game while Tommy's been pushing his agenda

the last slot is harder to solve, I could see any of DBD / Evie / yourself in there
 
independently I still townlean phoopes tbc if they are scum they've done very well, but we're down to the player size where interaction reads are important and Tommy / phoopes make a lot of sense as a pair
 
well I do think Tommy + Phoopes have a massive amount of scumbud eq, it's slightly more from Tommy's side but phoopes has largely agreed with Tommy the entire game while Tommy's been pushing his agenda

the last slot is harder to solve, I could see any of DBD / Evie / yourself in there
What is this agenda you keep talking about that was anti town btw

Like what shots of mine do you specifically think are bad? Just pebble?
 
What is this agenda you keep talking about that was anti town btw

Like what shots of mine do you specifically think are bad? Just pebble?
pebble and pulsar in terms of shots

but the agenda was shutting down other attempts at solving until all the afks died, which is why the gamestate is now the aggressive low WIM mess it's in

2 separate occasions I tried to open discussion wider and you shut it down immediately, at least that come to mind maybe it was more !
 
pebble and pulsar in terms of shots

but the agenda was shutting down other attempts at solving until all the afks died, which is why the gamestate is now the aggressive low WIM mess it's in

2 separate occasions I tried to open discussion wider and you shut it down immediately, at least that come to mind maybe it was more !

It’s my fault it game is low wim? I’ve been maybe the most active player all game, a lot of the worst shots in the game were on my townreads (who flipped town)

I’ve actively encouraged people to keep posting all game and warned against Wim drop

Also why was pulsar a bad shot?

I don’t even think the game IS low Wim now tbh and I think I’ve actually done a lot towards helping us not be in such an endgame
 
you've been the most active player all game but when other people have posted content or solving that wasn't agreeing with you you shut it down pretty decisively lol

we both know active players are the wim gods and not just how active players are but how they use that activity has an impact on the less omnipresent players

you used the omnipresence to evoke low wim I'm sorry to say it if you are town but you were trying to push the game into this hegemonic monolith of agreeing with your ~rand to below rand policy of only shooting afks
 
for example when I post a strategy on how to solve the game that had only had positive reviews and you call it a Neon strat because it's not just shooting afks, that doesn't exactly make people eager to post their reads yk

I p much finished that post and a call came in but has to be said lol
 
anyway Dead by Daylight Evie phoopes

check the alive playerlist and post your proposed scumteams (3 scum remaining) with justifications please tyyyy

honestly Tommy do this as well idk if you have done

Texas did already, or basically did

you can look at some of my posts today for structure it's not like we need a firm answer just theories, at this stage we should be looking at interactions especially since frankly all of us have good reason to be town
 
this isn't just to help pebble solve, we're in the endgame now and we need to play assuming pebble shoots correctly because, I mean, they have a 50% chance and their reads have been pretty good throughout the game iirc so they'll be fine prob
 
ShyPebble idr your read on DBD tbqh but I wanna talk a bit of strat with you

DBD is probably the low hanging fruit here. You’ve got me Tommy and Texas all saying they’re a good shot option. Considering Tommy and Texas have flipped pretty hard to come to that conclusion — Texas in particular had some buddying of DBD early on that he U-Turned on a while ago, while Tommy has softly shaded DBD throughout the game but also held him away from the real firing line — I would argue that that makes DBD a high risk option.

It’s not like DBD can’t be a bud with Tommy and/or Texas, their dynamics over the game are somewhat typical for scumbuds (more so Tommy I think but use your own judgement), but it also doesn’t make a lot of sense that they wouldn’t try and chainsaw town over a scumbud here. And one of them is scum, unless the scumteam is exactly phoopes / Evie / DBD.

That’s a ramble but what I’m tagging you to say is that I think strategically, shooting DBD is prob not the play rn. We should shoot DBD when we have a number advantage (I.e. if you shoot correctly) since I think he’s the most ~rand option remaining.

I think you’ve gotta shoot into the other 5 but it’s up to you. If DBD’s scum it takes your rand chances from 50% to 40%, but you’ve also efforted the game so I feel like you’ll probably have a high conviction read to go for.

Basically, bear in mind that half of us are scum and take that as a warning sign against consensuses. Bussing is real, but in LYLO it becomes a lot less real usually.
 
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