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Popcorn Mafia 4 - Game Over, Village Wins

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I think it’s as simple as trying to get Pebble to shoot me over Evie. In that case it’s game over because it’d be at 3-3. (you, DBD, Evie vs. Tommy, Texas, me). And I think that’s really your only shot at winning.

Because if Pebble shoots Evie, now it’s down to just you and DBD. And in that case I think you’re fucked. Because Texas and I are sure the two of you are scum, and while Tommy has kind of backed off a bit, I think between the three of us Pebble would listen to reason and not hero shoot. From there it’s gg. Because even when we shoot the second vengeful y’all don’t have any good options to give the gun to since we’ve sniffed you out. So that’s why you need to shoot me now to win.
ok this is a good answer but then what do you think about me and Tommy agreeing shooting Evie first is better
 
ok this is a good answer but then what do you think about me and Tommy agreeing shooting Evie first is better
I mean I feel like anything I say is going to be taken as WIFOM logic lol. You want me to get shot, but in order to keep us from thinking that you’re pulling for Evie to get shot even though that’s not in your best interest etc.

(I think I used WIFOM correctly?)
 
I don't even have the words for the emotion. If we're seriously going this many fucking rounds with no one listening to me then I genuinely don't care anymore. Shoot who you fucking want, I'm done shouting into the void.
My shayla, I'm sorry for causing you so much grief. I find that the most effective use of a gun is to threaten. If Phoopes and Evie are going to be difficult to get through next round, threaten and see where they land. That's content.

It was always my intention to shoot DBD today. The fun part of being cleared is I get to lie. I do find it very interesting that neither of them really intended to scumread the other though.

Now uh someone tell me how to do shoot this cuz I'm not really sure.
 
Wait I see it, I'm not sorry if I miss btw.

##SHOOT: DBD Aura Guardian
Two gunshots ring out. ShyPebble and Dead by Daylight both fall to the ground. Dead by Daylight was the second Mafia Vengeful.

It is now Cycle 14 Decision Phase. Deadline is still September 3, 2025 at 10pm EDT, but if the mafia decide early, then it'll end on the 2nd at 10pm EDT instead.
 
I actually was very worried I was going to get the gun so I’m glad I don’t have to tinfoil Texas tbh

I also kind of trust you will mafia today

Of the other 3 being serious it can all of them, obviously, but I have to be honest that I’m starting to think celever is town again

It just felt to me like, especially given dbd flip, that the mafia plan was to tie him to celever then shoot celever next to win?

When I go back looking at yesterday I think we got like by far the most towny content from celever of the 3 though obviously he’s the most experienced by a lot, but I kind of believed his paranoia push on me and the back off but not full back off felt natural.

He can’t in pretty hard early on dbd yesterday and has been against dbd a lot of the game apparently (I do need to read back to confirm but I’m busy this morning) but just based on yesterday the whole tinfoil me and Texas who are obviously town and push dbd then stop because he thinks we are partnered do I believe he backs off there as mafia and loses the credit to two experienced town players? Probably not

I think one other interesting point though to look at is when he’s saying oh me and dbd must both be town because we are being paired which I never thought made sense - but like was he being opportunistic, when pebble said he was shooting one of the others idk really he did like slightly sus Evie more so do you think that was a win con opening up for him as mafia - or was he just town actually concerned. It probably makes it so if celever is mafia then that phoopes is the partner? So phoopes would be the shot…because he’s on the team with or without celever

It’s kind of tough I think like I’m so obviously town, I think celever has more going for and against him so he’s the one I’m trying to focus on on more, the other two players are for the most part here because they were towny tone and vibes to now

So I think the game comes down to if we think how celever has acted this way really makes sense as mafia, I’m kinda leaning no but I need to think more of it

that being said with the vengeful now gone, we only need Texas to find one mafia today which I think he will, and then after that tomorrow he will remain with gun and can probably tell us a final shooting order if needs be

Btw ShyPebble that was worthwhile to tell people you aren’t shooting dbd to develop content, it’s something I was going to do today also if I got the gun
 
I also feel that like, if celever was mafia he gives me the gun over Texas but maybe that’s wrong and he has incredibly balls in this final situation, because if celever is mafia I’m more likely to take the 50-50 in phoopes and Evie than Texas given what’s happened to now

But if like phoopes and Evie are mafia then they probably just give Texas the gun to shoot celever and I’m not sure that mafia has ever really big brained the gun hand out to now, though here would be the time to do it so it’s not impossible
 
Evie had more partner equity with how they read each other with celever historically this game though so maybe yesterday was distancing if celever is mafia and though him and dbd were dying soon with Evie as the endgame final hope

Like yesterday just antispew

I’d shoot in phoopes/evie today anyways Texas but I’m really flipping back and forth on which
 
I also feel that like, if celever was mafia he gives me the gun over Texas but maybe that’s wrong and he has incredibly balls in this final situation, because if celever is mafia I’m more likely to take the 50-50 in phoopes and Evie than Texas given what’s happened to now

But if like phoopes and Evie are mafia then they probably just give Texas the gun to shoot celever and I’m not sure that mafia has ever really big brained the gun hand out to now, though here would be the time to do it so it’s not impossible
i think this line of reasoning just makes it a 50/50 cause of WIFOM. I also think mafia have more reason to big brain the gun hand out now because theres not really a reason to take that risk early game
 
i think this line of reasoning just makes it a 50/50 cause of WIFOM. I also think mafia have more reason to big brain the gun hand out now because theres not really a reason to take that risk early game

This is true it is wifom but I think at the core of wifom you must ask is someone brave enough to actually like push through the obstacle on equal likelihood than the other option

Celever would’ve for sure known that Texas getting the gun is like wifomy something he shouldn’t do but at the same time it’s not always easy to make that decision as mafia, though in theory it is wifom

Celever can make that decision which is why he’s nowhere near actual clear, but I just think it’s the least likely option, if it wasn’t wifom then he would just be clear and the mafia would be you and phoopes and the game would be easy but obviously that’s not the case, so it’s now just the odds of which decision

Who do you think is the mafia now?
 
i think celever acted in a way yesterday that makes sense as scum, trying to jump on a me or phoopes vote while also trying to townclear dbd. This makes me think cele and tommy might be paired and went with the strategy of filling the thread by pushing each other to distance themselves with the knowledge that pebble is never gonna shoot either of them.
Tommy / phoopes / Evie is a legit highly possible team so lmao
this post seems super opportunistic and really aligns with the above gameplan.

Who do you think is the mafia now?
Im honestly leaning towards celever and you but i do think it could be phoopes as well.

phoopes hasn't done anything really scummy to me but they also havent been particularly pro-town this game. I do think what you said about a celever and phoopes pairing is in a similar vein to my thoughts and it makes a good amount of sense
 
mmmmmok Tommy's town I'm just gonna pick a side here

I wish we could talk during the "night" (mafia choosing who to give the gun to) but I get why we can't, I was just thinking about this game all too much lol

but my solve basically came down to "if one of Evie and phoopes it town the scum would give the gun to the other one". Reason being those two engaged with the game less than Tommy or Texas yesterday, Tommy saw the light on me and Texas said "if DBD's scum I'm willing to entertain a phoopes/Evie world" or something like that, while Evie and phoopes were pretty gd steadfast. So if there was a town within that duo, idk why any scumteam wouldn't give it to that town.

Probably they would shoot me first, if they don't shoot me then they shoot the other of Evie/phoopes and they are probably scum (well we now know it has at least one scum acc but yk) but that's also prob what's gonna happen if Tommy or Texas don't shoot me and they're likelier not to shoot me, strategically I don't think it tracks. Tommy or Texas isn't shooting the other regardless so yk.

Frankly I think the optimal strategy to get me shot would be phoopes/Evie if one's town first, then Tommy second because he would paranoia getting the gun and end up shooting me (I would do the same in his position LOL), and then Texas is literally last place preference

do a phoopes/Evie scumteam work out that giving the gun to Tommy is better though? somewhere between maybe and probably not. Does Texas work that out? proooobably. but Texas is town I'm still not used to that LMAO

does this all mean Tommy's scum? ehhhhh idk there's an argument there
 
but I'm not considering Tommy scum rn we'll panik later if true lol

I would really on an emotional level like to not be the person who loses town the game by getting shot which is currently feeling like the likeliest result but I also don't know why I wasn't shot already I've been "next" for ages :row:
 
I have to assume evie being like "Celever was wrong because he didn't just hard townread Texas yesterday" is coming from a scum pov where she obv knew Texas is town bc she's scum and hasn't fully adjusted worldview when trying to act as town

both phoopes and Evie coming in with identical readslists and then "solving" me not having identical reads to them as scummy just feels like scumchat leaking into the thread from both of them lol

you two know who the town and scum are ofc you townread Texas and were right !
 
mostly bc of the zero re-eval which I just don't think comes from a town pov

I've played a lot of mafia, the percentage of town who at LYLO don't crash out and tinfoil everything is in single digits
 
I have to assume evie being like "Celever was wrong because he didn't just hard townread Texas yesterday" is coming from a scum pov where she obv knew Texas is town bc she's scum and hasn't fully adjusted worldview when trying to act as town

both phoopes and Evie coming in with identical readslists and then "solving" me not having identical reads to them as scummy just feels like scumchat leaking into the thread from both of them lol

you two know who the town and scum are ofc you townread Texas and were right !
when on earth did i say this
 
mostly bc of the zero re-eval which I just don't think comes from a town pov

I've played a lot of mafia, the percentage of town who at LYLO don't crash out and tinfoil everything is in single digits
also what do you mean zero re-eval, you and tommy were two of my top townreads at a point in the game and now i think youre the most likely scumteam, if thats not re-eval i dont know what is.

i've considered all the potential scumteams (including tommy phoopes i just didnt post about it), im not sure what there is to tinfoil. sorry for being in control of my emotions i guess?
 
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