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Tournament SCL V DOU Discussion Thread

DaAwesomeDude1

waiting for a moment
is a Top Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Top Contributor Alumnus
i copied this post from eragon who copied it from zee who copied it from Fc who probably copied it from someone else

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Welcome to the Smogon Champions League 5 Discussion Thread -- DOU edition! This thread will be used to discuss DOU in SCL V related topics, whether it’s about the players, general metagame trends, matches, predictions and so on. Teams, Replays, and Usage Stats can be found here. (when it gets posted)

Commencement Thread

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DOU Player Cores
Dynamos - EternalSnowman, Grandmas Cookin
Machines - ratpacker, sir jelloton
Terrors - zee, kunal2 (manager)
Islanders - Feyy, srvoltmike
Breakers - MADARAAAA
Gible - bagel, DaAwesomeDude1
Shoguns - SEA, eragon
Foxes - Ann, umbry (manager), Xrn (manager)
Spartans - Akaru Kokuyo, Schister
Platoon - Nails, Hasayo (manager)

Pricelist
Nails - 17k
bagel - 13.5k (retain)
ratpacker - 13.5k
MADARAAAA - 10.5k
Ann - 10k (retain)
EternalSnowman - 10k
zee - 8.5k
Feyy - 6k
eragon - 4k
SEA - 4k
srvoltmike - 3.5k
Akaru Kokyuo - 3k
DaAwesomeDude1 - 3k
Grandmas Cookin - 3k
Schister - 3k
sir jelloton - 3k

Power Rankings and the season spreadsheet will be linked here when those are available.
 
Last year I didn’t post in here since I was too busy and my good friend Xrn took over the weekly predictions instead. The thread was pretty dead, though, which was a bit of a bummer since I feel this is the tournament that pushes the meta the most for DOU. In OSDT we basically saw most people reuse proven teams instead of building. Even in the finals, the two teams that won the whole thing had been used months, or maybe even a year earlier.


Teambuilding is a big part of why I enjoy Pokémon, so I’m hoping we’ll see some cool new ideas this time around (especially if Flutter Mane isn’t freed). Anyway, since it’s break week, I figured why not post some PRs! I want to make it clear that I think this pool is very even compared to most, so even the people I have at the lower end I still see doing well.



1) Gible – bagel, DaAwesomeDude1​


I had the luxury of having bagel in my DPL chat last year, and even though it was for a short period, they impressed me with their insight and hard work. They finished 5–3 last year and won OSDT despite starting off, I believe, 1–2. I don’t think I need to sell anyone on this one: bagel will work hard, practice a lot, and make the right plays in-game.

The only concern is that bagel does sometimes reuse builds they favor, which could be exploited. Still, I expect them to do very well this year. Joining bagel is their fellow i’s captain, dad1! Not only is dad1 a great chat presence, but he’s also been quietly grinding and doing well in multiple circuit tournaments. He made top 16 in OSDT and is just a solid player in general.

This core is honestly great—the only fear again is the building side, as I know dad1 doesn’t build his own teams. Definitely my number one in the pool.




2) Foxes – Ann, umbry (manager), Xrn (manager)​


Ann finds herself “alone” this year, with her support coming in the form of two of the best DOUers of all time as managers. I think Ann is a solid pilot who I rate pretty highly. I don’t actually know much about her building as she’s in a group with Akaru and SMB, so I’m never sure if it’s a joint effort or if one person takes the lead.

That said, she still has umbry and Xrn. I think umbry will be more focused on other tiers since she doesn’t play much SV DOU, but her insight is still priceless in a tournament like this. Xrn is also great at spotting team weaknesses, so they should always have strong builds going in.

Maybe not the flashiest, but they’ll be solid. If they can get fairly even matchups, Ann is strong enough to outplay a good portion of the pool. She’s had slightly less impressive showings in her most recent SV DOU appearances, but I think she has the environment to perform at the level we all know she can here.





3) Dynamos – EternalSnowman, Grandmas Cookin​


This one is a little weird for me. I think ESM is still a very solid player, but they haven’t looked as dominant as they did last year. They aren’t performing poorly, but it doesn’t feel like they’re quite as far ahead anymore. Going from x–1 to anything worse will look like a drop-off, but they’re still good.

Joining ESM is another long name, GMA. This is probably one of the best supports you can have! GMA likes to grind out builds and can play at a high level. The weird part is just how these two function as builders. ESM runs teams that only they would cook up and rarely pivots off that style. GMA tends to find a Pokémon or concept and stick with it for most of a season.

This could either go great if they find harmony in their building, or it could clash, making it harder for them to iron out their ideas. Either way, the duo is strong thanks to their experience and overall playing ability.




4) Machines – ratpacker, sir jelloton​


Ratpacker is finally in SCL! I’ve always rated him highly as a player, even before he knew about the tournament scene and we’d fight a lot on ladder. There isn’t too much data on him, but what we do have is enough to prove he’s a top player. I’ve also seen his builder before and… he builds a LOT. Some of his ideas may be questionable, but for the most part his builds are unique and well-structured. This is probably the slot I’m most excited to watch this SCL.

Joining him is sir jelloton, who I’ve had the chance to team with. I’d say jello is fairly solid, sometimes prone to make unorthodox plays in situations you normally wouldn’t, but still talented. He also builds, so they shouldn’t have an issue getting teams out.

The biggest issue is that this is their first OTT, which could hurt them in prep. I could see them making solid builds but getting caught off guard by someone exploiting their tendencies. Still, ratpacker is very strong and willing to use all kinds of styles, so I expect them to do well.




5) Terrors – zee, kunal2 (manager)​


I’m a big fan of zee—they always have cool and unique ideas in the builder. They know how to play too, consistently going far in basically every DOU tournament. They won the most recent seasonal after, I believe, getting second in the one before? I might be misremembering, but I know zee always performs well.

With that said… this is SUPER risky. I rate zee highly, but they’ve always had some sort of mental block when it comes to SCL. I don’t know why, since they’re clearly extremely talented in all aspects, but they just haven’t been able to close out games.

Their last SCL games were a few years ago, though, and after supporting Spurrific to an impressive 8–1 record, it’s clear they know how to prep and build for this setting. Maybe the break is what they needed, and this year they’ll hit the form we all know they can. This slot could easily go top 2 if zee finds their footing, but it’s a huge risk with no backup.

Kunal can’t step in since he’s managing, but I think he still builds and plays at a fairly high level, so zee will at least have someone to bounce ideas off of. This is definitely the slot everyone will be watching in the first few weeks. If zee starts off strong, the whole pool will be on alert.




6) Spartans – Akaru Kokuyo, Schister​


Akaru has been fairly busy, and because of that he’s taken a step back from a lot of SV DOU tournaments. With a quiet season, you’d think he should be lower, but I still rate his building and experience pretty highly. From what I’ve heard, he had a big role in the builds that his players used throughout DPL, so prep shouldn’t be an issue.

He’s also played in this tournament a few times now, and while his results haven’t been as good as some of the players above, he’s proven he knows how to win. Schister is someone I don’t know too much about besides some good results. I’m assuming Akaru picked them for a reason, so it’s possible they build, which would help lighten the prep load.

That said, this spot is a bit questionable: if Akaru struggles, I’m unsure if Schister can step in and hold up at the SCL level. It’s happened successfully before, though, so who knows.




7) Islanders – Feyy, srvoltmike​


Feyy is back! They had a pretty solid DPL this year, but outside of that I don’t know if they’ve done much. I also don’t know if they build, so it’s hard to rate them there. They’re partnered with srvoltmike, who I’ve seen around in tournaments, but from what I’ve seen his results aren’t at the same level as some of the others here. I also don’t know if he builds, so again it’s tough to rate this duo.

So why do I have them at 7th? Honestly, because Feyy feels like a less risky pick to get wins. They have SCL experience, where they did fairly well; they won a whole OSDT; and they went positive in DPL. When it comes down to it, I think they can thrive in this kind of tournament. That said, this is the placement I’m the most unsure about.




8) Shoguns – SEA, eragon​


SEA is VERY eager and excited to play. She’s new to DOU but had a solid DPL despite that, proving she can beat seasoned players in a team tournament setting. SCL is a much different field, but SEA has experience in this kind of environment already.

She still has some kinks to work out in her play and plenty of room to grow, but this is the place to do it. The best players in these tournaments tend to be the ones who grind the hardest, and SEA has the drive. The biggest issue is teambuilding, but thankfully she has eragon.

I’d say eragon is a solid player, but I especially respect him as a builder. He had a big hand in building a lot of West’s teams in DWCOP and stays on top of the meta. That lets SEA focus on grinding her play while eragon supplies her with different team styles to find what clicks. I think this core can do well, but I can’t put them higher until they prove it. Still, I can’t wait to see how they do.




9) Breakers – MADARAAAA​


Madara is a very talented player. In fact, I think he’s one of the best SV DOUers around. I don’t actually know how good he is in the builder, though. I’m sure he’ll get some outside support, but it’s hard to get consistent motivation from someone not actually in the tournament.

I do think Madara has what it takes to outplay a lot of people in this pool, but with the skill level being so even, a lot will come down to matchups. Even if he outplays his opponent, if the matchup is too unfavorable it could still result in a loss.

That said, Madara is super talented, and if the prep issue gets sorted out this placement could rise quickly.

TL;DR
1) Gible - bagel, DaAwesomeDude1
2) Foxes - Ann, umbry (manager), Xrn (manager)
3) Dynamos - EternalSnowman, Grandmas Cookin
4) Machines - ratpacker, sir jelloton
5) Terrors - zee, kunal2 (manager)
6) Spartans - Akaru Kokuyo, Schister
7) Islanders - Feyy, srvoltmike
8) Shoguns - SEA, eragon
9) Breakers - MADARAAAA
 
week 1/x of posting because hasayo did

When I tried to properly rank everyone it felt more correct to place them in categories rather than rank 1 to 9. That's how I'm gonna format the meat of this post but there'll still be a ranking at the end so that by the end of the tour everyone can laugh at me OR I can look smart.

"Easy" Favorites
:falinks: Platoon - Nails, Hasayo (manager)
To be honest, Nails would not be all the way up here if he landed on nearly any other team. His SV showings have been middling compared to his SS or even SM days. 6-4 into 4-4 in SCL and a pretty whatever Invitational. In that time he still showed the ability to play some great games but pretty frequently I found his team choices to be questionable. Fortunately for Nick and any fans of good DOU he's linking back up with Chris this season, the best support possible and the one who helped him achieve a 9-0. Chris should be able to get the best out of Nick this season, keeping him motivated and making sure they go into every game with a strong team.
:gible: Gible - bagel, DaAwesomeDude1
The newest OSDT winner didn't come out of nowhere for once and should be en route to another solid SCL. While I haven't really seen him popping off this year outside of OSDT, he's still always playing and doing well enough in anything he enters. Dad1 might not be crazy SV support but bagel shouldn't need it. He went 5-3 last year without dedicated support and is one of SV's biggest grinders, so just having a good friend around to help test and talk through prep is perfect. Bagel should definitely be able to keep up and go positive here.

Should Perform
:zapdos-galar: Dynamos - EternalSnowman, Grandmas Cookin
ESM's performance has dipped a tad since last year, just putting up decent records instead of dominating the leader boards. Despite that drop off in DOU subforum tours I'd still expect a pretty similar run to last SCL for him. 5-4 or 4-5, a perfectly solid middle of the pack showing. It's not like people have fully solved him or anything and he knows how to play his unorthodox teams very well. Gma might struggle to have much of an impact here while ESM is starting, but I'm sure he'll try to help out however he can. If ESM somehow flops he's shown the ability to sub in and step up too.
:melmetal: Breakers - MADARAAAA
Madara has been a consistent force in SV playing pretty much everything since the start of the gen and now he finally gets his chance to shine in SCL. He has his slip ups, but you can generally expect solid teams and play. It's been business as usual for him since the start of the year with a Circuit win followed up by a DLT win, OSDT Quarters, and Top 6 in Invitational. Even though he finds himself stranded this tour I'm sure he'll manage to find support, whether it be from his boys that aren't playing or teammates somewhat familiar with DOU like elodin/entrocefalo/Stories. My one real concern for him is that he seems to do his best work in Bo3 rather than Bo1, often falling around .500 in DOU team tours and having some occasional timer scares. Now he'll have to do it in a higher pressure environment, but a respectable debut should still be expected out of him.
:mew: Machines - ratpacker, sir jelloton
This community really loves to overuse the word snub for anyone with a pulse. If there was one true recent DOU snub though it was absolutely ratpacker in last SCL. Nice to see him get a well earned shot at starting this time, hot off of 2nd in Invitational. The packer is a busy guy and plays less tours than his contemporaries from late SS/early SV, but he's certainly shown some good individual peaks. I think his play has solidified quite a bit and he's a very good builder if Jello can contain him ever so slightly. Despite not having the most team tour history I believe his style should be a good fit for SCL and I look forward to seeing how he does this year. Should he falter for whatever reason then Jello is at least capable of punching up as well.

Seeking Redemption
:Gyarados: Terrors - zee, kunal2 (manager)
With kunal at the helm it's no surprise that the Terrors opted for solo DOU, but banking on zee as the solo definitely could be seen as a risk. Historically a huge bust in this tour, zee took to managing last year after winning the year before and intended to skip this time, but caved in. Many such cases. If you're a DOUer you obviously know what zee can do, they've been fantastic in individual tournaments recently and builds some real strong teams. Kunal should be able to make sure they aren't too one note in prep either. There's no doubt that zee can compete with the other players here, but expectations should be tempered for now. If there's no mental block and they're able to think during their games they could be great this year, and if not then it'll be a very rough season with nobody else able to step in. Personally I'll bet on zee at least being able to perform better than years prior.
:Aegislash: Spartans - Akaru Kokuyo, Schister
This is an interesting one. Akaru is back for his third SCL, and has a new (former) Duck to assist him. I really haven't seen Akaru do too much SV in recent memory outside of his good Invitational run, of course he's still been playing a ton of Pokemon in general though. He's a decent player willing to get a bit silly in prep, which will be accentuated by Schister no doubt, in theory making him perfect for this sort of environment. His starting debut in 2023 was solid but got abruptly cut short at 3-2 and his 2024 return was uneventful to say the least. Still though experience is experience and I do think he should be able to grab a few wins which is probably all the Spartans want given their light investment. It'll likely be his first full season as I don't really think Schister is ready to compete here yet, so let's see what he can do.

Wildcards
:exeggutor-alola: Islanders - Feyy, srvoltmike
Back in 2023 Feyy won OSDT, had a decent SCL campaign, and went on hiatus. This year he's made a proper return going 7-4 between Derby and DPL. Not bad by any means but the schedules were pretty light and I personally haven't been too impressed by the games I caught. From what I've heard they need pretty heavy builder support right now, so at least Mike is there to help out on that front. I'm not the most familiar with Mike admittedly, but I was told he's highly sought after support this year and I believe they're friends. When I've watched him play he usually has pretty nice looking teams at least so it seems like a sound pairing. Personally I expect a slower start from this slot in the first few weeks as Feyy fully gets back into the swing of things, and we'll see what happens from there.
:kingambit: Shoguns - SEA, eragon
Shoguns have moved on from the OSDT gamble to one that I'd call just as risky. SEA has one proper SV DOU tournament under her belt with the most recent DPL, in which she showed some definite promise and put up a nice 6-3 record. She had a few games against SCL caliber players that tour and notably did take down bagel, but this is gonna be quite a step up. While she has shown potential in her limited pool of games, she's also shown clear inconsistencies and is still learning the tier. Eragon should be a great help in that department though as a very active builder who can help her find her way, and can definitely hold his own against some of these players if needed. Much like the Islanders core I expect this one to start off slowly and potentially pick up as the season progresses. Out of all the cores this one is most likely to end up with the support getting significant playtime, but I selfishly hope my bestie excels instead.

After all that here are my own personal rankings, probably not identical to the rankings submitted by Ann
1. :falinks: Platoon - Nails, Hasayo (manager)
2. :gible: Gible - bagel, DaAwesomeDude1
3. :mew: Machines - ratpacker, sir jelloton
4. :zapdos-galar: Dynamos - EternalSnowman, Grandmas Cookin
5. :melmetal: Breakers - MADARAAAA
6. :Gyarados: Terrors - zee, kunal2 (manager)
7. :Aegislash: Spartans - Akaru Kokuyo, Schister
8. :kingambit: Shoguns - SEA, eragon
9. :exeggutor-alola: Islanders - Feyy, srvoltmike

I expect 1 & 2 to definitely perform well. 3 to 5 should be decent to good but there's room to underperform. 6 could put up any record and I wouldn't be surprised. I struggle to see 7 through 9 going positive.
 
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Formatting will be awful cuz on mobile but whatever

One thing that I believe is interesting to talk about are the drafted/manager support that each starter has, and how the pairing could potentially elevate each slot. I actually think most players got their ideal support in terms of how the starter + bench building philosophies compliment each other:

someone like SEA who is inexperienced in the builder but a fantastic clicker gets Eragon, who I view as one of the best builders in the tier and someone who is able to tailor teams to the preference and playstyle of the user (we see this a lot in the teams he loaded vs what he passed me vs what he passed emilio/zom etc in world cup)

Akaru gets schister who is not afraid to deviate from the standard and build fundamentally strong yet unorthodox builds, and Akaru I think is a top end pilot of what I’d call archetype-less but unorthodox (I.e is willing to load literally anything and half the time it will be strange)

Packer + jello intrigues me. I do think jello filling in as some sort of QC for Packer’s imagination will do him some good. I trust jello to be a good barometer of what is fundamentally good vs bad. I think this team will come up with some VERY solid teams and it terrifies me a little.

Zee gets Kunal. In the discord I made a joke about both being from the Stone Age, but realistically, Kunal gets to be QC in a similar vein to jello with Packer. We know Zee can build, we know Zee can click, bro just won DPL and an Indiv. What I’m interested in is how Kunal’s fundamental understanding of Pokemon and of SV will influence Zee’s team decisions. I know these two will work well together, but how much smeargle will Zee be allowed to load? That’s what the rest of the world is asking themselves rn.

Bagel + dad1 I’ve unfortunately never had the opportunity to team with. But what I’ve read and gotten the vibe for is that bagel is pretty much self sufficient and is a grinder (and is riding crazy OSDT momentum) so I think drafting an ex manager like dad1 that he’s probably close with and can provide vibes and testing is what bagel needs to keep his motivation high and this also avoids conflicting styles which could be an issue in other scenarios

Nails + Hasayo- I don’t pretend to know much about this duo. I teamed with Nails in Derby and he was very much a self starter when it came to his builds. Conversely, I’ve not interacted much with Hasayo, it seems they were more active before my time. This is one group I’ll be looking to learn more about as the season progresses (unfortunately we do play them week 1 tho )

ESM + GMA- this is where the word “most” comes into play in that opening paragraph. I haven’t teamed with GMA since my first derby, and they were playing Gen 3. I also don’t really know their building philosophy but I do know that ESM is a very particular builder. I don’t think they will clash in terms of style but I’m curious to see how the blending of the two will manifest itself as the SCL season progresses.

Foxes- I don’t know too much about Ann’s building habits, but I trust that Xrn + umbry support will be broken. I’m not sure I have much to add here from what has been said above.

I’m quite excited to see how the season progresses and I’m especially excited to see how (and if!) each support’s building philosophy manifests itself in how their starter builds and plays this season! Good luck to all competitors!
 
w1 preds
SV DOU: Ann vs zee
SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs bagel
SV DOU: Feyy vs Nails
SV DOU: SEA vs EternalSnowman
SV DOU: ratpacker vs MADARAAAA

gg
 
w1 preds but cooler than gephs
SV DOU: Ann vs zee
SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs bagel
SV DOU: Feyy vs Nails
SV DOU: SEA vs EternalSnowman
SV DOU: ratpacker vs MADARAAAA

will not elaborate further, if I'm ever wrong its the players fault not mine
 
Week 1 is finally here! To be honest, there isn’t too much to go off since these are a lot of fresh matchups, but I’ll do my best to elaborate on each of them. As for my hopes… with Flutter not being freed, I just hope people don’t fall back on what they’re used to in the builder.


SV DOU: Ann vs zee
This matchup is probably the closest one this round for me. zee has looked very solid lately, coming off strong showings like their seasonal win. On the building side, zee has always been someone with unique ideas that they manage to bring to life. Ann is also up there in terms of both play and team choices, and with Xrn and umbry, she should have solid builds with good concepts for handling tough matchups.

I do think zee has looked slightly better in both play and building overall, but the thing is.. it’s SCL. We all know zee tends to struggle here, so Ann feels like the safer pick, especially given her consistency. If zee can get over the mental block and play cleanly from start to finish, I could see this going either way, maybe even slightly in zee’s favor. But Ann is easily one of the best DOUers out there, so it won’t be easy, even at zee’s best. Very excited for this one!

SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs bagel
I think Akaru is a solid player but hasn’t been grinding as hard as bagel lately. I did hear that Akaru had a big part in the Ducks’ SV building and testing, so it’s clear they’re still up to date with the meta. The issue is just the lack of recent results, so they’re probably looking to prove they’re still among the best in the field.

Unfortunately, bagel is one of the toughest opponents to try that against. After their insane OSDT run, it’s hard to ever count them out. My only issue with bagel is the lack of new builds. I mostly see them stick to tried-and-true stuff, but honestly, they play so much that they’re just a master of whatever they bring.

I could see Akaru prepping something that catches bagel in a slightly worse matchup, but even then, bagel will have a game plan and execute it well. So the question is: is Akaru still in strong form, or will bagel run away with this one? I definitely favor bagel, but either way, it should be a fun match.

SV DOU: Feyy vs Nails
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SV DOU: SEA vs EternalSnowman
This might seem like a crazy pick from me… and honestly, it probably is. But if there’s one thing I know, it’s that anyone willing to grind hard and test every idea can succeed here. Xrn basically forgot how to play doubles around SCL a few years back, but by grinding week after week he ended up the top of the pool. I think SEA has that same drive right now and will work harder than almost anyone to prove herself.

That said, she’s up against ESM.. someone you literally can’t predict. I have no clue what they’ll bring, but I’d say there’s a 98% chance it includes Tyranitar, Kommo-o, Manaphy, or some setup core with +2 redirectors. They’ve looked a little weaker compared to their peak, but that doesn’t take away from how good they are.

SEA definitely has her work cut out for her, but I believe she can do it. At the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if ESM catches her off guard with a unique HO/setup team and plays it perfectly. Either way, I can’t wait for this one!

SV DOU: ratpacker vs MADARAAAA
The highlight match! Both are debuting in SCL but have been among the top DOUers for a while now. I think they’re fairly even in terms of playing ability, with maybe a slight edge to Madara, but in building I’d say ratpacker is one of the best around.

No matter what, this is going to be a high-level, exciting game. I lean toward ratpacker winning through stronger building, but if the matchup is more even, I could see it going either way.
 
week 2/x of posting because Hasayo did

SV DOU: :Ninetales:Ann vs zee :Gyarados: - 100/0
:pmd/tinkaton: CRATERMADE.

SV DOU: :Aegislash:Akaru Kokuyo vs bagel:gible: - 40/60
It's a little weird to say that bagel is the second most proven in SCL behind Nails, but in this pool he sure is. While he's certainly not infallible his track record in SV is just much stronger and more consistent than Akaru's. The "obvious wincon" for Spartans here is cooking up something devious to try to find a massive builder edge. I think bagel will be locked in for SCL though, mixing in his recent experimentations with proven concepts to not get caught lacking in the builder. Additionally I feel like when Akaru leans too hard into that counterteamy approach it backfires more often than not (cough Sunny Day Latios), so I'll be interested to see how him and Schister handle prep week to week.

Decent edge for bagel. I'm hoping to see bagel not directly reuse from his folder of favorites, and I'm hoping to see Akaru bring something that I can call solid enough.

SV DOU: :exeggutor-alola:Feyy vs Nails:falinks:- 20/80
Weird one honestly, neither of them are hot hands (in DOU at least, gj at worlds mate) coming into SCL but I just have so much more faith in Nails when he's backed by Hasayo. He's a stronger player than Feyy and has the best support possible to bring out his best. When they met back in SCL 3 during Feyy's prime it was a dominant win for Nails too. I don't have much commentary other on this as a W1 matchup, sorry.

Big edge for Nails. I'll be a little disappointed if I don't see a step up in team quality with Hasayo behind him, and for Feyy I just hope he keeps it competitive.

SV DOU: :kingambit:SEA vs EternalSnowman:zapdos-galar: - 42/58
By all means, ESM is the favorite in this matchup. I predicted SEA on the form though so I'm standing on it here. In my opinion ESM is actually one of the best players she could've pulled in hopes of starting the season strong. She has the drive to grind hard for this and mentally prepare for the unique beast that is ESM in order to not feel lost as soon as preview loads. Eragon is probably one of the best assistants you could ask for in this case as well, being someone that's teamed with him on West and isn't a stranger to our there squads himself. All that aside, ESM is still the clear on paper favorite. He's proven that he can beat literally anyone in this tier and can be a very daunting opponent, especially for someone like SEA who lacks experience and is more likely to slip up. And more than against any other player, one skip up against ESM can end the game instantly.

Slight edge to ESM but I personally predict SEA. I'd just like to see ESM stay true to his style, hopefully without directly recycling an idea. As for SEA, it's a positive sign if there's not a moment where she lets the game fully get away from her.

SV DOU: :mew:ratpacker vs MADARAAAA:melmetal: - 52/48
Not only are these two new starters, they're two completely new players to officials. The only two to never play a sheet game before, or even be drafted. Despite that, they're also both expected to be very competitive with the rest of the pool this season. They've each found great success in recent DOU tours, and have grown a lot. Madara being the more active of the two is more proven as a player, but I don't think ratpacker is far behind if at all. I do think Madara is a bit behind ratpacker as a builder though, and that's meant as a compliment to ratpacker rather than an insult to Madara.

It's really even, but I'll back up my initial rankings and predict ratpacker. With it being the debut game for both of them I just hope that they make it a good one.
 
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Excited to watch my first SCL and trying to yap more in general so I'm dropping some predicts, I may not do every week but the starting matchups look pretty hype!

SV DOU: Ann vs zee
This matchup feels crazy close to me. I have minimum one "damn, that was insane" moment every time I watch Ann play, she's just the definition of an impressive player. At the same time, zee's recent consistency is also super impressive and speaks to a deep understanding of the format going into W1 of a tour that rewards innovative building. I think this is basically even to me but I'll give a slight edge to Ann.

SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs bagel
Akaru might need a bit to get into form, whereas conditions are primed for a really strong bagel performance this tour. I do mostly believe in Schister prep and Akaru is too fundamentally good to count out, so I still expect this to be very competitive. Team choices should be the make-or-break.

SV DOU: Feyy vs Nails
As a new-head I don't have much insight here. I've barely seen Nails play current gen and Feyy's DPL run was strong but not a ton to go on for predicting performance in this player pool. Bolding Nails on vibes since his Tub Takes reports have been really formative for me learning VGC and I respect his approach to the game.

SV DOU: SEA vs EternalSnowman
I'm a SEA Truther and I think she's gonna outperform expectations this tour, but ESM feels like an especially tough W1 draw for the starter with the least experience in the tier. Eragon as her support is probably best-case-scenario, but I still think the deck is stacked against her. Would be happy to be proven wrong but won't complain about getting to watch an ESM masterclass either.

SV DOU: ratpacker vs MADARAAAA
I picked this format up by watching replays from last year's circuit finals so this is my most anticipated matchup of the whole tour. I think MADARAAAA is just straight up the best current gen player and it'll take multiple weeks of underperformances for me to bold against him. That being said, I have a super high opinion of ratpacker and I'm really excited to steal his team see what he cooks up.
 
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[BRE] MADARAAAA vs Akaru Kokuyo [SPA]

Last week there was a Cratermakers teamkill, now it's the Ducks' turn. Gonna go off script from the PRs here and bold Akaru, who I think had a great showing and strong team in week 1, despite the general lower profile in the tier. Wasn't as big of a fan of Madara's week 1 team and he escaped with a win in a game he maybe shouldn't have, would like to see him return to form but gonna predict an upset for now.

[DYN] EternalSnowman vs Ann [FOX]

Ann was my #1 PR so I was quite terrified to realize who my week 1 opponent was, and I think she brought a strong team there and got a little unfortunate in a tight endgame to lose, while ESM got some pretty lucky power whip dodges to keep winning with one of his trademark Magmar Manaphy builds. ESM's style of building has definitely been caught on to by now and I think Ann will be able to figure out how to get ahead of him in the builder and execute properly.

[PLA] Nails vs eragon [SHO]

Yesterday we got a glimpse of what Nails with Hasayo support is capable of, so it's gonna be pretty hard to bold against him for the next few weeks. eragon is in over SEA, not sure if that's a permanent roster swap or just because SEA's gonna be top cutting a regional this weekend, but I think it works out well here as eragon was Nails's support last season and will probably have some insight on how to approach the teambuilder.

[GIB] bagel vs Feyy [ISL]

Neither player had too much of an impressive showing last week but fey's game was particularly worrying when combined with the preconceived notions of them being out of practice. Conversely to what I said last pairing it's gonna take a few weeks before I can bold in favor of fey, bagel's just got too many accolades and impressive showings for me to not feel comfortable with him here.
 
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Zee vs Ratpacker
After snatching a defeat from the jaws of victory last week in a game that demonstrated very solid prep and play to me, I think ratpacker will be extra determined to enter this week with stronger discipline and take an edge over Zee in what I think is probably the closest matchup of the week.

Nails vs Eragon
Teamsheet Terrorism from both sides, I expect a very strong build battle from this slot but Nails and Hasayo will have a lot more scout to work with on top of having a slightly stronger pilot here.

bagel vs Feyy
While both players had disappointing results last week I think bagel's play seemed a little worse to me than usual whereas Fey simply had a terrible matchup in a very unusual game with little to work with. Definitely an upset of a predict but I have faith in Fey to recover

EternalSnowman vs Ann
Esm will never run out of builder tricks but I think some of his comfort picks are becoming very easy to identify and Ann has had a great year preying on tendencies in builder with solid options and superior play.
 
w2 preds

EternalSnowman vs Ann
Zee
vs Ratpacker
Nails vs Eragon
bagel
vs Feyy
MADARAAAA vs Akaru Kokuyo

gg

last second switch-up, i trust my boy era
 
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With week 1 in the books, we have some... interesting results. I don’t think week 1 usage stats are too important, but I’ll post them anyway since we had some unexpected outcomes.


---- + ------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon | Use | Usage % | Win % |
---- + ------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1 | Ogerpon-Wellspring | 6 | 60.00% | 33.33% |
| 2 | Okidogi | 6 | 60.00% | 50.00% |
| 3 | Chien-Pao | 4 | 40.00% | 25.00% |
| 4 | Gouging Fire | 3 | 30.00% | 33.33% |
| 5 | Tornadus | 3 | 30.00% | 66.67% |
| 6 | Incineroar | 3 | 30.00% | 33.33% |
| 7 | Diancie | 2 | 20.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Landorus | 2 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| 9 | Raging Bolt | 2 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| 10 | Ting-Lu | 2 | 20.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Ogerpon-Hearthflame | 2 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| 12 | Roaring Moon | 2 | 20.00% | 100.00% |
| 13 | Brute Bonnet | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14 | Farigiraf | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15 | Lilligant-Hisui | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16 | Torkoal | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 17 | Chi-Yu | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 18 | Indeedee-F | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Iron Crown | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Iron Valiant | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Latios | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 22 | Magmar | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 23 | Manaphy | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 24 | Kyurem | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 25 | Ninetales-Alola | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 26 | Sinistcha | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 27 | Mew | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Gholdengo | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 29 | Primarina | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 30 | Dragonite | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Glimmora | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 32 | Iron Hands | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 33 | Volcarona | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 34 | Bronzong | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Ursaluna | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |

Never would I have guessed Okidogi would be tied for the most-used Pokémon this week, with a better W/L rate than Ogerpon-Wellspring of all things. I don’t think Okidogi is a bad Pokémon by any means, but being on over half the teams is something I don't think anyone expected. And Chien-Pao only at a 25% win rate?? Overall, a really strange week.

As for the teams themselves, I actually really enjoyed some of the techs we saw. Fake Tears on Alolan Tales paired with Kyurem was something I never thought of. Not only was it really cool, it almost won the game on the spot if Okidogi hadn’t lived the Earth Power somehow. We also saw Feint from SEA’s Iron Valiant, a move we rarely see but that worked really well with her offensive team, forcing more defensive plays early on.

There were some teams I wasn’t as big on, which I’ll get into later. But for the most part, players who cooked in the builder got rewarded. It was nice to see so many interesting techs and new builds come out this week, and I hope we see even more as the season goes on!


Predictions:

[BRE] MADARAAAA vs Akaru Kokuyo [SPA]
Madara looked pretty off last week, to be honest. The team was interesting, but he made some decisions I didn’t quite understand. Taunt on Roaring Moon was a cool tech that slowed down ratpacker’s progression, but having to burn Tera just for slight momentum didn’t feel great. For those Taunt turns, it felt like ratpacker still got further ahead. Then switching Roaring Moon out after Taunt wore off, presumably predicting ratpacker to expect a Taunt again, only to let rocks go up didn’t help either. Overall, it never really felt like Madara had a grip on the game.

That’s not to say he played badly; his midgame was solid. But compared to his usual play, it felt underwhelming. I feel even he would admit he got bailed out by the timeout, since it would’ve been a loss otherwise unless ratpacker made a huge choke. Hopefully he can bounce back into the form we know he’s capable of.

A big part of this prediction is also how good Akaru looked. His team could’ve been awkward, but he piloted it well and did exactly what he needed to stall out bagel’s Trick Room and then take back momentum. Sacking Roaring Moon to get a free switch into Volcarona was especially clean. I was a fan of his game planning all the way through. I do think Madara has what it takes to win if he gets a more even matchup and plays more like himself, but for now, Akaru looks stronger.

[DYN] EternalSnowman vs Ann [FOX]
My reasoning here is pretty simple: I liked Ann’s team. Outside of maybe being too passive and losing her lead midgame, I thought she played well.

ESM, on the other hand, brought exactly the team everyone expected him to and then got super bailed by Power Whip misses. I can’t really hold it against him for getting caught by Feint Iron Valiant — most of us would’ve — but I can argue that his team choice is exactly why it came down to that.

I do think ESM is a solid player who can absolutely win this, but if he doesn’t change it up or find a new way to make his ideas work he’ll end up getting outplayed in the builder again. Honestly, ESM could throw people off just by bringing a standard team, he has so many options. Hopefully GMA can help push him to not get fished again, but for now, I trust Ann’s play, especially with Xrn and umbry’s support.

[PLA] Nails vs eragon [SHO]
1757980019069.png

[GIB] bagel vs Feyy [ISL]
I don’t think bagel played badly last week.. they just loaded a weaker team. If their game plan got stopped even once, it was really hard to bounce back. We saw this when they Earthquaked into a Flying Tera Glimmora, which then got Rocks and T-Spikes up.

The team couldn’t do much after that, and the momentum was gone. Yes, it’s hard to guess a Flying Tera on Glimmora, but the fact that one misstep was game-defining so early shows the team’s issues.

That said, I still think bagel is one of the best pilots in the pool — they were just held back in the builder. I was originally going to bold against them until I saw something new or more solid, but they’re up against Feyy.

No jab at Feyy, but we really didn’t see much from them last week. Their team choice was what we expected, and there’s definitely more work to be done in Islanders’ prep. I think this one comes down to play, and in a straight-up game, it’s hard for me to bet against bagel. A bounce-back game for both, so it should be exciting.

[TER] zee vs ratpacker [TMS]
I actually really liked how both players prepped last week. zee went for a more upfront team with techs to catch Ann off guard, while ratpacker went with hazard-heavy physical spam. Okidogi worked as both an Intimidator deterrent and a strong mirror pick.

Neither team was flashy, but both snuck in cool techs like Fake Tears Alolan Tales from zee and Ice Shard Chien-Pao, giving them edges in situations where opponents would normally feel safe.

I think they both played well. zee made a great comeback after a rough start, while ratpacker consistently made the better midgame plays to cover Madara’s options. This is definitely a close one, but I’m giving the edge to zee. They had a solid mid-to-end game against one of the best players in the pool — and they won.

That could spell trouble for the rest of the pool, because zee is a real force if they aren’t held back by the “curse" or whatever you want to call it. I do think ratpacker has what it takes to play at the same level, but after last week’s timeout, it’s safer to assume he still needs a little more time to get comfortable on this stage. Still a very close match, and my highlight of the week!
 
week 3/x of posting because Hasayo did

SV DOU: :zapdos-galar: EternalSnowman vs Ann :Ninetales: - 0/100
go team

SV DOU: :Gyarados: zee vs ratpacker :mew:- 48/52
I pretty much got what I wanted out of both of these players last week. Zee brought something solid that's still in their wheelhouse without being too predictable, with a fun little tech snuck in. They played quite well too dancing around the board in the mid game despite a rough start. Ratpacker also delivered for me, not trolling in the team department and playing a pretty nice straightforward game with heads up plays. Unfortunately though the clock got the better of him and he timed out in what should've been a 100% won position.

When I've watched these two play in the past I feel like ratpacker really tends to get zee in the builder, which is pretty big when both are similar skill. Zee was a bit better overall in W1 but I'll trust ratpacker to bounce back here. Definitely matchup of the week for me.

SV DOU: :falinks: Nails vs eragon :kingambit:- 70/30
Another pairing where I saw what I wanted to see out of both slots last week. The Platoon came in with a cool team and Nails won easily against someone he needs to be beating if he wants to live up to his last run with Hasayo. Over on the Shoguns side, SEA was properly prepared for ESM with a very fun disruptive Iron Valiant. A pair of immediate Power Whip misses took the game out of her hands sadly. It's eragon in at least for this week though — which was happening win or lose — and I'm sure he's eager to prove himself with this early opportunity.

In 2025 I do think pretty highly of eragon and I might've favored him in some matchups, but not here. I will bold any good player with Hasayo support until given reason not to. On the bright side for eragon he should at least have a good number of reps vs Nails from supporting him last year, even if this is a different beast. Don't think that'll be enough though and I'll pretty comfortably take Nails.

SV DOU: :gible: bagel vs Feyy :exeggutor-alola:- 60/40
For this one I'm afraid that I'll have to be a bit more negative. Bagel loaded a rejected Cratermakers finals tiebreak team, didn't test very well for us so I was shocked to see it. I think those structures just really want Sinistcha as one of the TR setters in order to play nicely. With Sinis I think bagel's matchup would've been crazy good, but instead he has to full send Zong+Luna immediately and didn't get enough value for what he gave up. On the other end Feyy brought what I believe is a known Psyspam team, not crazy about it but it isn't bad. He lost 6-0 to Nails' leads. Having tested against Nails last week though it is a difficult team to play against, so I don't think Feyy played especially poor or anything. Just doesn't inspire much confidence.

Taking bagel off the premise that I've seen more good stuff from him, but I'd really like both players to give us a better showing here than W1. I'll be real worried going forward if they don't.

SV DOU: :melmetal: MADARAAAA vs Akaru Kokuyo :Aegislash:- 51/49
Ducks team kill... Both won last week in what I would've considered upsets but in pretty different fashions. Akaru brought a proven 5 popularized by zee with Volcarona replacing Gholdengo as his wincon of choice. Solid team and he was able to limit bagel's Ursaluna in order to pick up a nice win. I was less fond of Madara's team personally. Primarina is always a little questionable to me and I feel the team is in a weird spot where it's lacking in utility without having the craziest raw damage either. His play wasn't outright bad but ratpacker definitely outplayed him in some big moments to gain a huge lead before timing out.

Comparing their runs in DPL and Kunal Invite I would've said these two are in pretty similar recent form — with Akaru even winning their matchup in the latter. Combined with their W1 showings I really want to bold Akaru here. Instead though I'm gonna bet on Madara pulling it back here, for no real reason other than gut feeling ngl.

Current Score: 1/5 but lowkey it should be 3/5....
 
Buzzer beater for the first game of the week! 3/5 so far.

EternalSnowman vs Ann
I didn't love Ann's team last week but her play looked a lot better — slightly different midgame targeting would've won her what I'd otherwise consider a difficult matchup. Conversely I think ESM's endgame looked a little sketchier than needed after getting bailed early, so I'd like to see him turn it up a bit for future weeks.

zee vs ratpacker
Definitely match of the week. I really liked ratpacker's team and play W1 despite the unfortunate ending, and zee brought a proven six with a cool tech and played it effectively to a win. Lowkey just manifesting here, timer management is a personal weakness of mine and losing a big match that way is always a fear so I want to see the packer comeback.

Nails vs eragon
I was just kinda taking everyone's word on the Hasayo prep stuff but holy shit. That said I think the Shoguns' build last week was also impressive and eragon should be extra motivated coming in this week. He's a flexible enough builder to scout dodge pretty effectively so I'm feeling a West Coast Autumn.

bagel vs Feyy
I think bagel looked a little weaker than usual W1, but he strikes me as the type to bounce back given how much he plays. Meanwhile Feyy got blown out pretty hard and it feels tough to bold for him, but at minimum I expect a much closer game this week. Feels like a very important match on both sides for preserving mental/momentum going into the rest of the tour.

MADARAAAA vs Akaru Kokuyo
Go ducks :psytear:. Super impressive W1 for Akaru, I think the matchup was potentially scary for him but he found solid lines and executed well the whole way through. Still feeling MADARAAAA though, I think you're all haters and his W1 team was totally fine. I'm anti-Prim in almost every format it's legal but I think current meta is the most reasonable it's been in a minute, and last week felt much more like a play issue than a team issue to me. Sticking to what I said W1 and bolding my goat!!!!
 
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Week 2 Usage

+ ---- + ------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon | Use | Usage % | Win % |
+ ---- + ------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1 | Ogerpon-Wellspring | 5 | 50.00% | 60.00% |
| 2 | Roaring Moon | 5 | 50.00% | 60.00% |
| 3 | Gholdengo | 4 | 40.00% | 50.00% |
| 4 | Incineroar | 4 | 40.00% | 75.00% |
| 5 | Landorus | 4 | 40.00% | 25.00% |
| 6 | Chien-Pao | 3 | 30.00% | 33.33% |
| 7 | Ogerpon-Hearthflame | 3 | 30.00% | 33.33% |
| 8 | Iron Hands | 3 | 30.00% | 66.67% |
| 9 | Kyurem | 3 | 30.00% | 66.67% |
| 10 | Dragonite | 2 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| 11 | Ursaluna-Bloodmoon | 2 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| 12 | Tornadus | 2 | 20.00% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Gouging Fire | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14 | Orthworm | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15 | Ting-Lu | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16 | Volcarona | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Moltres-Galar | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 18 | Sinistcha | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 19 | Heatran | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Sneasler | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Landorus-Therian | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Primarina | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Regidrago | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Amoonguss | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 25 | Diancie | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 26 | Ninetales-Alola | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Indeedee-F | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 28 | Iron Crown | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 29 | Rillaboom | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Smeargle | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Volcanion | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Glimmora | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
 
(Stealing Xrn 's predict format because its cool and helps substantiate the opinions a little better)

Ann vs Nails - 30/70
The prep in platoon's slot remains undefeated, pulling another gross matchup versus a team I had a lot of faith in from Eragon last week. Fresh off a loss versus ESM, Ann will have a mountain to climb in the builder and then a fierce fight to be had if she makes it to the top. It's really just absurd to expect anyone to come out on top against those odds, but not impossible.

Fey vs Madaraaaa - 45/55
I feel like Madaraaaa is not having the best tour so far, but neither is his opponent, making this an awkward slot for me predicts-wise. On one hand I feel like Fey and Mike need to seriously reexamine their gameplan and work on preventing early-game mishaps with more solid builds, but on the other I feel like Madaraaaa has been called in builder twice now and struggles to make big moves from behind in games compared to his usual style of dominating early on and being wildly difficult to predict. Given where the strengths and weaknesses of each player lies I feel more comfortable bolding Madaraaaa, who shouldn't have much issue exploiting Fey if he has another poor start to the battle but I feel this matchup is a lot closer than most people might think at first glance especially if Fey takes time to breathe and focus down on nerves to actually be able to play the game on even ground.

SEA vs Bagel - 60/40
Another Switch-up for SEA/Eragon as planned, Bagel's gameplay has not impressed me this tour whereas the Shogun's slot has been a victim of circumstance thus-far, being handed some awful RNG week 1 and pulling an abysmal matchup despite a really interesting build in week 2 versus an elite player. That said Bagel will no longer be burdened with regional prep and has shown before to handle pressure well, so this should still be a good fight and opportunity to get SEA back for a loss from DPL leaving Bagel with good motivation to put in his all.

Zee vs Eternalsnowman - 52/48
Zee is unchained with a 2-0 record and Kunal has significant builder insight on ESM and west in general, making them the strong favorite in this matchup at first glance. However ESM's clean performance last week makes this my most anticipated game though, and easiest potential upset; showing that you really never know what he can show up with after bringing an almost shockingly normal team to the battle. Both players are coming off double wins and looking in great form so this should be the closest battle of the week and a real showstopper!
 
Ann vs nails (25/75)
Tough draw for Ann after starting 0-2 in two fairly close games. Nails has looked very good thus far with two comfortable matchups and wins over fey and yours truly in the first couple of weeks. I think Ann can for sure get it done but momentum is a big factor here and I’m not sure there’s anyone in this pool you can really bold over nails after the first couple weeks of the season have played out. Support from Xrn could be helpful for Ann tho, with Xrn getting two wins over nails himself the last couple of scls. Big advantage for nails but probably his most difficult opponent so far and not someone to be taken lightly.

Fey vs Madaraaaa (40/60)
Same thing here, team sitting at 0-2 in the dou slot has to figure something out fast and against a fairly difficult opponent. In fairness, Madaraaaa hasn’t looked as indomitable as nails with a 1-1 record, with both the win and loss coming with an asterisk after a timer win into a fiery wrath flinching him out of the game last week. Still though, Madara is a proven quantity in this format and fey really isn't (in 2025 after the hiatus), with the team selection so far being a bit suspect and last week's performance not being very inspiring. I don't think anyone would be surprised by Madara being favored here, but I think these two players are very comparable in terms of both overall mons skill and accomplishments so it really could go either way here, but recent results and team loads just tip the balance a bit in Madaraaaa's favor. Looking forward to seeing if Fey can start to turn it around this week, should be a fairly competitive game.

ratpacker vs Akaru Kokuyo (55/45)
Tight one, but I'm going to go against the grain here. The akaru/schister pairing has worked out great so far for the spartans, with the slot going 2-0 in the first couple of weeks while ratpacker has struggled, with some good play in week 1 into an avoidable timer loss and a game last week where he clicked uturn with his booster speed roaring moon. That said, I think this is the week ratpacker turns it around. He'll be motivated after the rough start and his play hasn't looked shabby really. It'll be a bit of an uphill battle into the solid prep he's facing on the other side, but fundamentally I think ratpacker has a bit of a play edge in this tier over akaru, who has looked good so far this tour (especially week 1 against bagel) but doesn't have the greatest sv record overall. If ratpacker can pull out a neutral matchup and get past his demons from the first few weeks I think he takes it here. On the other hand, the win condition for the spartans is fairly similar to what they've already been doing- looking for schister to beat the opponent in builder and have Akaru cover the difference with solid play. Schister should have plenty to work with after teaming with ratpacker in DPL which is definitely a plus here, but my gut is still telling ratpacker bounces back here. Not sure how much input Jello has had on the ratpacker loads but I think he could definitely be very helpful here into the Schister brainrot. Really looking forward this game, one of the highlights of this week for me.

Zee vs Eternalsnowman (49/51)
This is a really interesting pairing, with both players starting 2-0 here and Zee looking much improved from previous scls. Zee's games have looked really solid I wouldn't be surprised to see the win streak continue. The team loads from the zee/kunal duo have looked great as well, particularly last week where they queued up with a solo kyurem team that really shined against ratpacker. That said, I think esm probably takes this one. I think the easiest week to exploit esm's unorthodox style was definitely week 1, where he still managed to bring home the win after some power whip rng. I think that game was probably a bit of a wake-up call for him as he narrowly escaped defeat at the hands of a team specifically teched into what he brought. Last week, we saw him just bring a solid goodstuffs team and outplay a slightly negative matchup against ann and really just return to the fundamentals of this format rather than spamming the same (pretty successful) kind of teams that much of this pool has already played against. I think this was a pretty major shift from him so we'll just have to see where he goes from here. This isn't really a mark against zee as both of these players have really excellent doubles fundamentals and zee even has better recent performances. However, I'm bolding esm simply because I think this is where he is most dangerous- you already know he can load any whacky idea under the sun, but when he's building and using teams that are more conventional at a glance I think he can be quite scary to prep and play against. In general, I think people overestimate the extent to which esm's results are due to the teams he uses. He's a better mons player than almost everyone in this pool, it just so happens that this week he's paired against one of the two people i wouldn't automatically bold him over. Must watch game unless EternalSnowman brings magmar.
 
+ ---- + ------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon | Use | Usage % | Win % |
+ ---- + ------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1 | Ogerpon-Wellspring | 11 | 55.00% | 45.45% |
| 2 | Chien-Pao | 7 | 35.00% | 28.57% |
| 3 | Roaring Moon | 7 | 35.00% | 71.43% |
| 4 | Incineroar | 7 | 35.00% | 57.14% |
| 5 | Landorus | 6 | 30.00% | 33.33% |
| 6 | Okidogi | 6 | 30.00% | 50.00% |
| 7 | Tornadus | 5 | 25.00% | 40.00% |
| 8 | Ogerpon-Hearthflame | 5 | 25.00% | 40.00% |
| 9 | Gholdengo | 5 | 25.00% | 60.00% |
| 10 | Kyurem | 4 | 20.00% | 75.00% |
| 11 | Iron Hands | 4 | 20.00% | 75.00% |
| 12 | Gouging Fire | 4 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| 13 | Dragonite | 3 | 15.00% | 33.33% |
| 14 | Ting-Lu | 3 | 15.00% | 33.33% |
| 15 | Diancie | 3 | 15.00% | 33.33% |
| 16 | Glimmora | 2 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 17 | Primarina | 2 | 10.00% | 50.00% |
| 18 | Sinistcha | 2 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 19 | Ursaluna-Bloodmoon | 2 | 10.00% | 50.00% |
| 20 | Ninetales-Alola | 2 | 10.00% | 50.00% |
| 21 | Indeedee-F | 2 | 10.00% | 50.00% |
| 22 | Iron Crown | 2 | 10.00% | 50.00% |
| 23 | Volcarona | 2 | 10.00% | 50.00% |
| 24 | Raging Bolt | 2 | 10.00% | 50.00% |
| 25 | Volcanion | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 26 | Rillaboom | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Smeargle | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Moltres-Galar | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 29 | Heatran | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Sneasler | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Iron Valiant | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Magmar | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 33 | Latios | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 34 | Manaphy | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 35 | Regidrago | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Landorus-Therian | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Amoonguss | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 38 | Orthworm | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 39 | Mew | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Lilligant-Hisui | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 41 | Brute Bonnet | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 42 | Torkoal | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 43 | Farigiraf | 1 | 5.00% | 100.00% |
| 44 | Chi-Yu | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Ursaluna | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Bronzong | 1 | 5.00% | 0.00% |

If you told me going into this tournament that Chien-Pao would have a 28% win rate, I wouldn’t have believed you. That’s a crazy drop for what was once considered the strongest Pokémon in the format. On top of that, Tornadus has less usage than Okidogi… and a lower win rate too?? I don’t know what’s going on.

In other news, we’ve seen the rise of Roaring Moon, who sits at a strong 71% win rate while tied for the 2nd most used Pokémon, really impressive. Outside of that, there was a lot of diversity this week, which was great to see. Kyurem made three appearances, and its only loss came on a snow team, which was pretty funny. This week in particular was cool since we saw a lot of different styles: AV Kyurem psyspam, a Volcarona, “protect the G-Moltres,” physical spam, special spread spam, snow… even a Smeargle? It’s nice seeing this kind of variety in a format that most (myself included) consider pretty stale. Hopefully, we keep seeing a trend of creative new ideas mixed with proven concepts. Anyway, I’ve yapped enough.. overall, a very cool week and tournament so far!

[FOX] Ann vs Nails [PLA]
Good luck friends
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[ISL] Feyy vs MADARAAAA [BRE]
This is a tough one. I feel like both have been playing a bit below the level we know they can hit. Last week Madara looked more solid than in week 1, though. The matchup may have been a little tricky with G-Moltres being hard to break through with Incineroar and Sinistcha support. Honestly, without the flinch on Ogerpon, there’s a chance Madara could’ve brought it back by KO’ing G-Moltres, so maybe I’m not giving him enough credit.

Feyy, on the other hand, didn’t really seem to have much of a chance after turn 1. The team choice was a little odd, though I can’t be sure since Smeargle got bopped right away before showing anything. It’s been hard to evaluate the Islanders overall, since it feels like they haven’t really had the chance to play even games yet. Until I see them in a more balanced matchup, I’ll bold Madara, even if he’s struggling a tiny bit in both prep and play. He’s still shown he can keep games close and make the right calls to give himself a chance.

[SHO] SEA vs bagel [GIB]
I actually really liked bagel’s team last week. It had a solid amount of offense and good enough defensive synergy to hold it together. AV Kyurem was a cool touch to help in otherwise tough genie matchups. That said, I do think Feyy could have pressured bagel much better in the early game. The quick 6v5 lead made it pretty smooth for bagel to maneuver. Still, it showed what bagel can do, and it’s nice to see them bounce back after week 1.

On the other side, SEA is back from her first regional appearance. I’ve liked how Eragon has been switching things up in prep these past two weeks. Still, they’re 0-2.. but it hasn’t been a weak 0-2. SEA should’ve beaten ESM without the misses, while Eragon got a rough matchup last week. Bagel might be a little easier to prep for since there’s more info on them, and with SEA loving doubles right now, I think she’ll grind hard and pilot whatever Eragon builds at a high level. This feels close. If we see OSDT bagel, it’ll be much tougher for SEA, but for now I’ll give SEA the edge to get a slightly better matchup and play it well.

[TMS] ratpacker vs Akaru Kokuyo [SPA]
I feel like ratpacker overcooked a bit last week. Snow with U-Turn Roaring Moon with Booster Energy… I can’t tell if that’s genius or just insane LOL. That said, he didn’t play badly at all, it was more that zee’s team was really cool and they piloted it well. It hasn’t been the best start for ratpacker. Week 1 should’ve been a win but a timer loss is still a loss, and last week was a more convincing loss.

It’s a tough spot to come back from when you’re up against someone on a roll. And Akaru definitely is, sitting at 2-0 with two strong wins. Last week looked pretty good for him. Akaru brought a solid G-Moltres team and did what G-Moltres does best: sat there. It switched in turn one and never left the field. There was a midgame flinch that might’ve saved Akaru from the game flipping, but I’ve still liked his play and builds so far. I do think ratpacker can bounce back if he finds his footing and avoids overcooking in prep, but right now Akaru looks very solid.

[TER] zee vs EternalSnowman [DYN]
Both players won last week, but in very different ways. ESM went with a safer builder approach and ended up slightly outplaying Ann in a more standard game, while zee brought a really cool team and, despite some misplays, executed their plan well enough to take a convincing win.

It was nice to see ESM look more solid last week overall, but I’ve got to give the edge to zee. Their teams have been well prepared and even with some mistakes, their prep has been strong enough to carry. If zee brings another creative team with a good matchup, I favor them. If it’s more even, ESM might be able to edge it out since he looked steadier last week. Either way, I’m excited for this one!
 
week 4/x of posting because Hasayo did

SV DOU: :ninetales: Ann vs Nails :falinks: - :heart:
Hasayo it's up for east

SV DOU: :exeggutor-alola: Feyy vs MADARAAAA :melmetal: - 30/70
Feyy has lost both of his games within the first two turns. Last week his team puzzled me because I'm really not sure what the Smeargle was supposed to do there? The build definitely looked like it was missing something. More puzzling though is burning Tera on a half alive Tornadus against full health Kyurem/Hands to do less than 25% to each, and die the same turn? In my mind this was worse than the Week 1 game which I could at least somewhat chalk up to a crazy prep call from the Platoon.

Madara hasn't been fantastic either, though he's at least been competitive. He's a little stuck in DPL with all his DUU brings but I did think his team was perfectly fine against Akaru. He just made the bold decision to ignore a +2 G-Molt for too many consecutive turns and got punished by an unlucky flinch on the turn he went all in to kill it. Not sure if he necessarily would've won without that, but he definitely couldn't win with it.

In a way this feels like a very similar case to the bagel vs Feyy matchup from last week. Madara hasn't been performing at close to his peak level, but is the more accomplished player (yes, despite Feyy winning an OSDT) going up against someone who hasn't shown anything so far. It's a good opportunity for him to get a clean win on the board and build into a strong season. As for Feyy, it's not like he has absolutely no chance against a somewhat out of shape Madara, but first he has to get into shape himself and right now he can't do a push-up.

SV DOU: :kingambit: SEA vs bagel :gible: - 51/49
Last week eragon stood in for SEA while she focused on her regional. Meanwhile, bagel attended the same event and remained in the lineup (not that Gibles had much of a choice LOL). At said regional bagel outplaced SEA so I guess that's that... More seriously though bagel did not look great despite Feyy giving him the game by turn 2. He was never in any real danger given the matchup and opening but as the game dragged on it looked much closer than how it started off. Played fine enough to win though all things considered and I'd say his team was better than W1.

With his regional out of the way and a win on the board will bagel start picking up steam? Maybe, but I know SEA will be really hungry here. Her full focus should be on SCL too now and a victory over bagel in DPL is a significant part of why she's here in the first place. While I do expect bagel to come more prepared than he did for that stray DPL game, I prefer the ideas coming out from the Shoguns camp so far and friendship bias means I'm bolding SEA. I imagine the outcome of this game will really shape her confidence going forward so I'll trust her and eragon to deliver. They outprepped ESM and I believe they'll do it to Bagel too, don't really care that eragon got the call wrong against Platoon. Does have to be said of course that Bagel is the on paper favorite in pretty much all aspects and an impressive win here puts him back in conversation for top end of the pool. Close to a coinflip for me.

SV DOU: :mew: ratpacker vs Akaru Kokuyo :aegislash: - 40/60
I genuinely believed a lot in ratpacker post draft. His W1 performance was even very solid other than the fact that he timed out. Last week though he loaded a Booster Energy U-turn Roaring Moon. If you told me this before I saw the game I'd go "oh he probably has it to activate a partner's Weakness Policy, that's neat." Nah shit just had U-turn. The team seemed pretty decent otherwise but PsySpam with Seed SD Hands and Kyurem is close to the worst matchup snow could ever pull LOL good lord.

Akaru on the other hand is someone I had pegged as very capable of winning a few games, but unlikely to go positive. He's clearly on pace to prove me wrong with a convincing 2-0 start, one moment of luck last week but outprepping/outplaying both opponents so far. I've enjoyed both teams from the Spartans too, they aren't just hard fishing or anything. Not loading outright standard teams but building off of established ideas. Excited to see how their full season plays out.

Really hard for me to not just bold Akaru here, so that's what I'll do. Can ratpacker win? Yeah absolutely, like I said he was looking good W1 and I rated him high initially. He even 2-0d Akaru in their Invitational set, but he did that to zee too. Perhaps if the Machines weren't 3-17 in games I'd say he's due for one, who knows. Even on the cursed ass Machines I kinda want to bold him again but he lead Booster Energy Roaring Moon and clicked U-turn for 14%. Hope to see him turn it around though since he can be a really fun player to watch.

SV DOU: :gyarados: zee vs EternalSnowman :zapdos-galar: - 55/45
Super exciting one between two 2-0s, and two players that beat us sob... ESM got fully prep goobed and bailed W1, so it was a great sign that he could switch it up a bit and win with something rather standard against us. We did know Diancie balance was in his arsenal, naturally your attention is drawn towards other things against ESM though. It was a pretty competitive game but misnavigating within TR cost us and he pulled ahead. Looking like that W1 matchup may have been a one off rather than a sign of things to come?

Meanwhile, zee built upon a strong W1 showing with an equally strong W2. They thoroughly outprepped ratpacker to make me look like a FOOL. I've been interested in Iron Crown Semiroom for quite a while so it was real cool to see it show up in SCL. Their matchup was cracked and so they could play the team exactly how I'd think it's meant to be played in an ideal scenario. They were able to use Crown early and then transition cleanly into a SD Hands mode to clean up. Also, it featured the week's second raw Kyurem. Fantastic to see zee living up to their potential in SCL after a season away from the playerpool.

Comparing the two I'd say I've been a bit more impressed by zee so far. Additionally both Kunal and zee should be quite familiar with ESM stylistically given their time spent together. We saw how valuable that could be with the Shoguns W1 prep, and zee was able to capitalize on it during their Invitational set too. That doesn't make it free by any means of course, ESM is great and always difficult to go up against. Especially if he continues to mix in standard fundamental squads with his usual cooks. Close matchup but betting on the Terrors.

Score: I don't want to talk about it

best of luck everyone!! stay tuned for an extra section next week..?
 
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