cooking-procrastination predicts from someone largely off mons rn
Mt. Silver Foxes (5) vs (5) Indigo Platoon
SV OU: Foolycl vs bhkg (48-52) starting 0-2 at 20k has to be tough, but i do think this will be the week he turns it around. fooly is indeed 2-0 but i don't think it's the kind of 2-0 you watch and think he's untouchable.
SV OU: SOULWIND vs JJ09LIE (40-60) neither has been having a particularly amazing time in sv between 1st two weeks of scl+olt 1-3. i do think between jj being a better sver vs sw being ofc a more accomplished player, spot like this favors jj.
SV OU: Stareal vs Fusien (40-60) fusien has been pretty consistent post spl. solid wcop+olt+2-0 here. have to respect his 1st two scl opponents are "on paper" having better sv results, too. gap is not as big as it could be since stareal is indeed equally 2-0.
SV Ubers: emoxu9 vs Mashing (60-40) xrn swears this guy is jesus so i will give the nod. his start makes that easier to bold, but not like mashing will be free at all.
SV DOU: Ann vs Nails (40-60) nails is good at pokemon. nails is 2-0. doubles is hard and ive heard ann is competent, but this is not at all the opponent you want to see when you're in the hole 0-2 to start.
SV UU: Punny vs Sabella (75-25) full respects to sabella, but it's dealing with two ends of the prospective price totem pole. consistent 20k+ in uu vs consistent 3k bench into starter. it's contrarian to predict anything other than this.
SV RU: TheFranklin vs robjr (52-48) i saw chatter about the quality of franklins week 1 win, but ultimately he's 2-0 and i thought last week looked super goobed in what % of the game i did see, and he won. i think im higher on rob than most but i do think frank takes this one. fun game, though.
SV NU: Elias PSY vs Esteb4n (52-48) esteban just beat sinnoh with a nice start to his game, and elias is indeed 0-2. have to trust your 20k+ player doesnt start 0-3, which is not all that common to see but ngl foxes vs platoon has 3 potential occurrences. elias has historically been relatively him, so it's a good time for him to show that again.
SV PU: avarice vs kyuss (55-45) i do think avarice has underperformed based on what i've seen of him historically. meanwhile, kyuss has been at the bottom of the aura barrel since 5:30am last wednesday.
SV LC: Always Edgy vs Eternal Spirit (49-51) this is a completely insane matchup lol. subbing your lc in week 2 and juggling when starting 0-2-0 as a team is the correct time for changes. nonetheless it's someone i've never heard of (a rarity for scl) vs someone wild to see in lc. i know lc mainer wisdom is to often trust the mainer. in other lower tiers this is worth jack shit, but in lc it's pretty proven. nonetheless it's hard to have faith in someone 0-2 i don't know of.
Orange Islanders (4) vs (6) Circuit Breakers
SV OU: kDCA vs ABR (45-55) abr has found his stride in sv it seems. i'll be honest and admit i wouldn't have expected a 2-0 start at all. i'd have expected an 0-2 start before a 2-0 start, but here we are, and i never have a problem being proven wrong. kdca was hyped by some of my ou friends mid-olt as the next up, but i hadn't heard of him prior. he missed olt of course, but seems to have hit the ground running here. in my mind it's newest of the new school vs old man with storied career. fun one!
SV OU: hellom vs GXE (55-45) i predict against hellom a lot. now, hellom is my friend, but for some reason i just think he will lose sometimes. i hope he wins here, and do think he'll get there. gxe as an opponent is tough as nails (smogon nails, too) and i think this should be a must watch for anyone who enjoys high level sv. with respect for his efforts, gxe didn't deserve to win last week and i don't think hellom has ever lost three straight.
SV OU: Ewin vs Kebab mlml (55-45) i think ewin has good stuff. i like him as an sv player and wanted to retain him when originally planned with the terrors, before i knew he was doomed to become an islander. kebab has had some great flashes but i think ewin is going to be better on most days. 55-45 because they both have a penchant for being complete degen crack, and if it really is that volatile at preview u nvr know how it could go.
SV Ubers: TrueNora vs entrocefalo (45-55) watched fade nora live and felt jon had some misfortune that altered the game. entro is proven but i have friends who like nora quite a bit. won't pretend i know much about ubers and will respect they're both probably good as per the word ppl say about them.
SV DOU: Feyy vs MADARAAAA (45-55) it feels like both of these players have had their struggles so far. i happened to see bagel feyy live and it felt really nuts. madara's one win is ratpackers time out. my own personal opinion is id trust madara a little bit more as a proven dou player
SV UU: zS vs crying (48-52) zs cost 28k. they then put him in uu. crying is having their best tournament in literal eons. i REALLY want to bold zs here as his friend, but i can't. crying 3-0 sounds so weird but this feels like the exact type of opponent in the exact spot for them (1-1, just elim'd from olt...28k in uu....) that crying just loads some sensical nonsense vs and just wins nearly on preview.
SV RU: Colin vs Santu (25-75) dave will have a field day with this perceived numerical advantage, but it's just how it is. any words i write about this matchup wouldn't help it sound any better.
SV NU: Django vs watashi (45-55) nothing to make me think kush is a worse starter than django. i don't have a reason to think django is bad or wata is god, but i do think this predicted bold is flipped if kush is in.
SV PU: MichaelderBeste2 vs MZ (60-40) mz has not been off to the heroic start the breakers hoped for, and this is a tough get-right game. pu pool has some killers and mdb2 is the best player of the three he's faced.
SV LC: Envy vs Wail Wailord (60-40) can't pretend i know much of either, but envys been heat so far. wail is 0-2. has to be one of these sheetlook moments. however, the fact i've seen wail in several of these and envy in none of these before, but they cost 10k vs wail 4k...tells me at the least the managers valued envy more in draft and the predict can be based on more semblance than sheetery.
Showdown Shoguns (7) vs (3) Studio Gible
SV OU: 3d vs Star (52-48) pretty high level mu. 3d of course has had somewhat of a breakout year in sv, whereas star has done better in other gens than sv. nonetheless star is 2-0, and more respected as an overall player to boot. i think 3d gets his bounceback, obviously can swing either way. hl of the series.
SV OU: Baddy vs TJ (55-45) baddy came up with a big win vs bhkg, where sure enough if he lost it'd be 5-5 on the week. i vouched for him prior to the draft & don't see a reason he can't win again. TJ shows up ready in some tournaments, and it's hard to know which version you're really gonna get. i think objectively baddy has looked better so far, though.
SV OU: Mako vs Finchinator (45-55) on a personal level i root for mako, but i tend to keep it unbiased & finch has looked actually decent in sv. he'd be 2-0 if not for attribute winning 6 50-50s in a row, and hasn't had easy oppos at all. mako is always a threat but i do think finch is closer to fusien in current showing than haxlolo, and i'd like to see her win this before giving her the nod in these tougher mus going forward.
SV Ubers: Frito vs fade (45-55) jon has looked pretty shiest. the ubers pool is largely quite good and frito is no exception. i didn't like her team vs kate but ofc w2 fared better. just will give the nod to jon who seems to be recreating his HAR 3-0 ubers start from 2024. let's hope it doesn't follow last season in the downstretch 6 games.
SV DOU: SEA vs bagel (51-49) i have not been impressed with bagel so far, someone i got to know and do root for. sea is ofc his least "dou seasoned" opponent so far, but ultimately her 1 game was close. but yea, would really like to see more from bagel and ofc cant bold sea more than a coinflip.
SV UU: Fogbound Lake vs Mimilucha (48-52) have heard inklings mimi was unlucky w1, and indeed won w2. ofc, fog is a more proven entity. i think this probably a questionable bold but gut says if shoguns lose anything uu-pu, it's this one.
SV RU: hjkhj vs RichardMillePlain (60-40) hjkhj is the one player i told the terrors i wanted when we talked about the draft. i tried laddering ru blind for fun one day and threw a won game vs this guy. we then got into ladder shittalking, which truly is the hallmark of either a really good or really bad player imo. game has to respect game and hjk is part of the former aforementioned camp. rmp is legit too, and is indeed 2-0 off the back of his nailbiter vs eifo week one. however, based on how eifo/colins seasons have started it's fair to say hjk is just a step up in challenge. rmp is certainly up for it, though.
SV NU: S1nn0hC0nfirm3d vs Tuthur (35-65) david vs goliath, but goliath is groggy and started 0-1. however, everyone knows how unflinchingly real s1nn0h is, and tuthur admittedly hasn't started hot either. it'd be uncharacteristic if s1nn0h started 0-2 in any environment at this point, and this seems like a softer landing spot than the pool average.
SV PU: mind gaming vs Gilbert arenas (55-45) marcop yet again marchopping the competition in lowers, but gind brady has a career season every season. he's wicked good, and this is arguably the pu hl of the season so far. im a nerd who loves the game, and you can't do much better than this.
SV LC: Eniigma vs Laroxyl (55-45) arifeen might be on smogon's greatest losing streak in history, but his brother seems to be cooking. 2-0 start albeit vs easier oppos than laro's, hence the closer outlook. laro is a mystery to me bc i know in ou he's really just been (respectfully, no hate) quite bad but in stuff like lc and rby from memory(?) he's respected and seems to do better. it hasn't panned so far but he's expected to rein it in eventually.
as an intermission, hard to not think shoguns are the favorites this season. their uu through pu is completely disgusting and i'd bet anyone it racks up over 25 wins by week 9, between the 4 slots. this comes at absolutely no cost to their other slots somehow. i've joked about the dynamos being the only thing stopping them since the dynamos just somehow always getting there..but these guys are soo legit it's crazy. i would have killed to be on that team, because it looks fun to boot.
continued intermission to say i'm fairly certain 3-17 is the worst start to any 2 week official - ever. i do NOT think the machines are anywhere close to that bad, but it's a lot to endure. whenever slots start 0-2, week 3 is a make or break in the eyes of many managers. i think this is resoundingly true for the machines this week.
Technical Machines (5) vs (5) Arena Spartans
SV OU: clean vs Attribute (48-52) starting off is a battle of friends from tg. two packs, both talented. clean 0-2 really shocks me and bute should definitely be 2-0. between the finch 50-50s and the gxe game, i can't go the other way. bute is him and i'd love to have played him in a real game sometime. clean deserved to be 20k+, and either way it's a top 5 game of the week.
SV OU: Hiko vs DAHLI (55-45) unbiasedly i think hiko is currently better. dahli has had a fairly off year, and hiko has had a good year up until this point. if there's a time to bring it back for his own season, it's certainly now.
SV OU: leng loi vs Separation (51-49) both aren't having a season you'd want. both are surprising to see struggle. leng is in r5 of olt and i do think that will rub off on her being locked in. sepa is unique and talented, but an 0-2 start to the flying east brothers is rough.
SV Ubers: Icemaster vs Fc (48-52) these predicts have taken way longer than expected. i know the least about uber of any of these tiers, but know they're both highly respected. common trait for the ubers pool, it appears. 22.5k on a lower is no joke, and ultimately i'll trust word of friends who say fc is really toptop tier ubers.
SV DOU: ratpacker vs Akaru Kokuyo (45-55) akaru has simply had a better go of it so far. starting with a timer loss into another loss is just really brutal for someones official games. i genuinely told ppl ratpacker was good prior to the draft, and think this is very doable. just a tough start.
SV UU: Sacri' vs etern (45-55) i know etern cares af and will come to this game correct. i think he sees sacri as his 0-2 launchpad, and as long as he doesn't disrespect sacri then i do think it's 45-55. sacri is no slouch and people clearly believed in him for 11k, but unfortunately he joins a slew of 0-2 machines players.
SV RU: Dj Breloominati♬ vs vk (55-45) very funny haha mu, but machines have piyu and in spirit of the funny matchup i'll give the advantage to dj+piyu.
SV NU: Dr. Phd. BJ vs Danny (40-60) it's been a tough time for the doctor, and danny has kept humming along as a great nuer. he struggled when switching it up in spl, and i admittedly didn't know if that was moreso the diff playing field of spl or if danny fell off. but, based on pricetag and showing, it's clear he's still very talented and there's not much reason to doubt him here.
SV PU: LpZ vs Void (55-45) better puer and he has great pu support. but wait, void has great pu support too! but, lpz plays it more and even if void is pretty fairly proven as a jack of all trades "i can click competently in pokemon", i will trust the homefield advantage this time.
SV LC: tazz vs Starsama (51-49) won't bullshit - no clue how to predict this. i know both are very well respected in lc. tazz has been around FOREVER and i'll drop the bullshit cliché of his experience will carry him here. ok i lied, i did bullshit a little.
almost there...two teams i considered bound for playoffs post draft (alongside shoguns+an open slot) pair in a series where the dynamos would like to steal from the terrors playbook and do more than tie for once.
Uncharted Terrors (4) vs (6) Power Plant Dynamos
SV OU: TDNT vs Pkel SweeTforU (51-49) coinflip where i think i can't differentiate either player from each other. both seem like viable mid-tier scl options. tdnt got into olt and is still alive where pkel didn't, so i'll wrongly & stupidly use this as the coinflipper.
SV OU: oldspicemike vs ACR1 (60-40) mike is somewhat known to be him, at least to a moderate extent, while it has not been enzos year so far.
SV OU: heileone vs Niko (45-55) neither inspires a particular confidence rn. niko has coinflipped into a bad showing so far, but he's more proven historically than heileone. heileone does have a point on the board but the game was very weird. i don't know why he can't get it together in official games, i do think he's viable whenever i see him on ladder.
SV Ubers: Scottie vs Kate (40-60) 0-2 is a tough break to start for someone viable like scottie, and kate is not gonna make it easy at all. feel like she is favored to go positive pretty much in any official rn, and just objectively is respected enough as an scl ubers entity.
SV DOU: zee vs EternalSnowman (48-52) table 1 pairing. zee has emphatically owned every sheetlooker with their 2-0 start, but esm is arguably their toughest bout yet. both are really consistent but gut tells me esm takes in what is ideally a good game.
SV UU: pdt vs JustFranco (55-45) im just really high on pdt as a player. wouldn't count him out vs anyone & he's 2-0 in a pool of threats. meanwhile, francos price tag does more praise to his expectations than any words i could write. hl game of the series.
SV RU: Hacker vs Kristyl (48-52) hacker should really be 1-1 but the other way around. i'm glad he's getting his shot outside of lc, and he has done fine so far. i do rate kristyl higher as a player, but w1 was a wipe and w2 loss following can't feel amazing. will trust her to pull it together vs someone who is not at the toprank of the ru pool. if there's a week for it, it's now.
SV NU: Shengineer vs McMeghan (45-55) eyeroll routine of promising upstart mainer vs menacing mcmeghan. i think mcmeghan is more like a builder than me than any other player i see, and i rlly respect his craft a lot in sv. will cut the glaze short to say i don't think he's destined outright to do as well as last year, and ultimately shen seems more than up for the challenge. he seems like a nice guy, too. good karma on his side.
SV PU: Drud vs Jytcampbell (40-60) putting on my hater hat minorly to say i didn't think, based on what i knew of drud, that he was up to the task of starting in scl. nonetheless he is 2-0 and has proved me wrong so far. however, jyt has a penchant for showing up on these dynamos teams, and ultimately losing to gind brady doesn't make this any less true.
SV LC: Lokifan vs jake (60-40) everyone acts like he is the guy in lc, and who am i not to trust their word. was minorly joyed to see jake come back though, and not flopping to boot.
