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OU GSC OU Viability Rankings mk. 4
- Thread starter FriendOfMrGolem120
- Start date
lol. well, maybe "hurt you" is better put as "can make you regret your hubris if you fail to prepare for it". idk. Cune walls so many things that don't run Rest, it still seems easy to build a team that simply gets outlasted by one if Zapdos ever goes down.
The January 2026 update is here!
Thank you to the following 19 players who submitted their rankings: aminita choolio coco Conflict cyberacc Fear gorgie KeshBa54 melancholy0 MrSoup OmBrArch RealJester Rubyblood Siatam tylerkehne Underlying vani Vileman Zokuru
Special thanks to vapicuno for providing the scripts and his great resources and Siatam for taking over midway and running all the scripts!
Collection of data
- Players who placed in the top 16 of the 2025 circuit standings or placed in the top 12 of 2025 Invitational or played at least 5 games in SPL XVI +XVII.
- Submitters could rank any Pokemon on their list.
- No Pokemon were mandatory to rank.
- Players The survey was left open for about two weeks.
Formation of rankings
- Cutoffs for the ranks and subranks were determined using vapicuno's method,
- The order was determined by an outlier-compensated mean ranking.
- Pokemon had to be ranked by at least five players to be included. The end result of this was that the same set of Pokemon remained on the VR with one new addition of Electabuzz.
Flaws
- A lot of submitters opted to use one of the two tierlist makers that were provided to submit their VR. This might have limited some new additions to the VR as some opted to use the VR with only currently ranked Pokemon.
- Though in comparison to the last update 15 Pokemon were ranked that were unranked previously. 8 of 19 ranked unranked Pokemon. At the last update only one submitter ranked one unranked Pokemon.
- For the next update either only one tierlist maker should be provided with ranked and unranked Pokemon together or ordered lists only should be conisdered.
Link to raw data in spreadsheet form
S1 Rank
Snorlax
S2 Rank
Zapdos
Cloyster
A Rank
Raikou
Gengar
Tyranitar
Exeggutor
Steelix
B1 Rank
Skarmory
Forretress
Machamp
Starmie
B2 Rank
Golem
Vaporeon
Marowak
Jynx
C1 Rank
Heracross
Nidoking
Jolteon
Umbreon
Misdreavus
Tentacruel
Espeon
Alakazam
Miltank
C2 Rank
Blissey
Quagsire
C3 Rank
Rhydon
Suicune
Smeargle
Porygon2
Dragonite
C4 Rank
Charizard
Donphan
Meganium
D1 Rank
Kingdra
Houndoom
Moltres
Scizor
D2 Rank
Venusaur
Kangaskhan
Muk
Shuckle
Piloswine
Electabuzz
Clefable
Articuno
Aerodactyl
Gligar
Entei
Ursaring
E Rank
Ampharos
Omastar
Hitmonlee
Sandslash
Tauros
Qwilfish
Jumpluff
Typhlosion
Nidoqueen
Pikachu
Visualization of results and individual rankings
All the rankings are assembled into a single image. In the New VR column, green indicates a rise and red indicates a fall when compared to the old VR. Blue indicates no movement. The pale green and red in everyone's rankings indicate what they ranked higher (green) and lower (red) than the new VR.
Observations
Exeggutor (+1)
Exeggutor's rise in ranking isn't solely due to Starmie's fall. Its average ranking is much higher than in the May 2023 update. It was ranked as high as fourth by aminita and choolio, and lower than eighth only twice by the official Exeggutor haters melancholy0 and Zokuru (14th and 13th respectively). Exeggutor proves time and time again its offensive presence. With status moves, Leech Seed and all-out sets, it is is very hard to predict and almost always makes some sort of progress, often trading with something else. It is probably the best support mon for offensive teams with sweepers like Machamp, Marowak, Heracross and Vaporeon.
Steelix (+3)
Steelix has made a comeback in the top 10! It has been used much more frequently recently, as it can deal with EQ Snorlax sets more effectively, and it performs better against stall teams. This has even brought SA Skarm into play, providing stall teams with an effective way to counter Steelix teams. It will be interesting to see what changes the rise of Steelix and the fall of Golems will cause to the metagame. Although EQ is usually too effective to be dropped on Snorlax, I expect Fire coverage to be used more often again. This is especially likely given Forretress's increased usage on offensive teams.
Forretress (+3)
The popularity of Forretress on offensive teams helped it gain places in this year's update. Newer players in particular, such as aminita, cyberacc, tylerkehne and Underlying, ranked Forretress within the top 10. Its role compression of Spikes, checking Snorlax, spinning and booming makes it attractive for offensive teams, but it cannot threaten Rocks/Grounds like Cloyster can.
Machamp (+4)
Machamp has replaced Nidoking as the top stallbreaker. People realised that Machamp is a better bring than other stallbreakers because it can also make good progress against offensive teams. It was ranked as high as 6th by KeshBa54 and only once lower than 13th by melancholy0, who ranked it 16th.
Starmie (-5)
The development of the metagame hasn't been kind to Starmie. With offensive teams dominating the meta, Starmie's viability was bound to decrease slightly. However, it also faces competition from Tentacruel, which many players prefer for their stall teams' spinner role, as can be seen in this update, with Tentacruel rising quite a bit. Starmie has changed quite a bit on offense, too. Nightmare sets have fallen off massively, mostly because players are no longer getting caught off guard. Instead, Starmie is used more as a support mon with Thunder Wave to help another mon sweep; notable examples are Marowak, Screech Tyranitar and Machamp.
Golem (-4)
Golem's decline can be explained by Steelix's rise, and the fact that many players chose to drop it in favour of a better matchup against stall and Zapdos with Steelix and Tyranitar. As it has to fulfil both the roles of spinner and Snorlax check, it often has to sacrifice one of them, which players realised and started using it less than in previous years. Its matchup against stall teams is also often not the best, and it tends to struggle in these situations. Some people have tried to counter this by using Fire Blast instead of Roar, but these adjustments remain niche.
Vaporeon (+2)
Marowak (+2)
Heracross (+2)
It shouldn't come as a suprise that in an offensive meta set-up sweeper rise in ranks. They all need their team to remove defensive checks properly. Once these checks are removed, the sweepers become difficult to stop and often force booms. Heracross and Vaporeon can also function as soft checks for certain Pokémon with RestTalk. Even Marowak is being experimented with and used by some with a RestTalk set, most notably by melancholy0.
Nidoking (-6)
After dropping four places in the May 2023 update, Nidoking's decline continues, this time even more severely. It drops a further 6 places, all the way to 18th. Nidoking is struggling in this offensive meta due to the prevalence of RestTalk Snorlax and Zapdos sets. The continuous rise of speedy Pokémon on offensive teams, such as Starmie, Jolteon, Espeon and Alakazam, makes Nidoking's job much harder. Nidoking's viability will likely drop further as the metagame shows no signs of slowing down.
Jolteon (+3) +
Espeon (+2)
Jolteon continues to rise, breaking into the top 20. It has proven to be the best and most consistent Baton Passer, capable of both Agility Pass and Growth Pass. The Sub set has also seen some success, preying on Raikou structures and chipping away at offensive teams. Espeon reversed the trend from the May 2023 update, gaining two places. Over the past year, it has become more popular again, both as a Growth Passer and as a sweeper. With the Morning Sun and Mono Reflect sets, it can be unpredictable for the opponent at times.
Tentacruel (+7)
Tentacruel saw the biggest gain in the top 30. Many of those who submitted it value its spinning quality, which guarantees no Spikes versus any team that lacks a Ghost. However, it is also quite passive and requires Pursuit support to be effective. The ranking spread is quite high here. Unsurprisingly, Zokuru ranked Tentacruel the highest in 14th place, while choolio ranked it the lowest in 29th place. The SD set can be threatening, but it is only used occasionally as building with it can be difficult. It remains to be seen whether it can maintain its current position or perhaps rise further. For now, it occupies a strong niche.
Miltank (-4)
The usage of Spikeless Marowak and Quagsire teams has fallen quite a bit, so the drop in Miltank usage is a side effect of that. While it still performs well enough, its passive nature can cause problems with some teams in the current metagame. The matchups versus Ghosts and the need for Pursuit support also force the same team structures. Some people have tried to counter this by using Earthquake, which makes matchups against Flying Pokémon more difficult.
Rhydon (-2) +
Suicune (-5)
The decline of Rhydon and Suicune is ongoing and should come as no surprise. Although some residents of the retirement home (Conflict, choolio and gorgie) have used Rhydon, it is difficult to justify including it in most teams as it competes directly with Tyranitar, Steelix and Golem. Its offensive power, coupled with double STAB, enables it to deal significant damage to teams lacking a good switch-in; however, in reality it often doesn't get the turns it needs to get rolling. Suicune, on the other hand, has fallen even further. It has no place in the common stall structures and using it in different ones comes with different problems. Its bulk and typing should make it relevant, but its passive nature makes Suicune unattractive in this offensive metagame. Looking forward, I can see Rhydon potentially gaining some ground. I do not see Suicune improving at all — dropping even further is far more likely.
Donphan (+9)
Donphan saw the biggest overall increase in places. While it appeared in a few tournaments from time to time, its usage peaked in recent months, especially during GSCPL. Its ability to spin and its electric immunity carve out a niche for it in the metagame. However, that's about it. It is passive and offers no other notable resistance. I have a feeling this big rise is just a passing fad and Donphan will drop with the next update. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but the games I've seen haven't convinced me.
Meganium (+6)
Meganium's rise in popularity can mostly be explained by its performances in SPL and the impression it has made on people. Meganium struggles a lot and is either a support mon, as in Vileman's team where it helps spread paralysis for the Drum Snorlax, or it aims to be a sweeper and needs heavy support from the rest of the team, as in the team I used last year. Otherwise, it hasn't been used much or explored much, and I don't see that changing in the future. It's difficult to justify including it in a team, as it only works in very specific structures.
Moltres (-8)
The Fire Bird has fallen quite steeply. The prevalence of RestTalk Snorlax, Rocks and fast offensive threats makes Moltres's job very difficult. Fireblast has insufficient PP and Flamethrower isn't powerful enough. Other sets, such as an HP WW set, have been tried without success. With many other offensive threats rising in the ranks, and more and more people experimenting, I'm not hopeful that Moltres will be able to fight this trend and climb back up.
Electabuzz (New)
Electabuzz is the only newcomer at the table. Having only recently come into the spotlight, it has shown promise with its RestTalk Pursuit set. Only time will tell if it will become a regular presence in this metagame, but its ranking certainly suggests that it has made an impact. Eight out of nineteen submitters ranked it.
Thank you to the following 19 players who submitted their rankings: aminita choolio coco Conflict cyberacc Fear gorgie KeshBa54 melancholy0 MrSoup OmBrArch RealJester Rubyblood Siatam tylerkehne Underlying vani Vileman Zokuru
Special thanks to vapicuno for providing the scripts and his great resources and Siatam for taking over midway and running all the scripts!
Collection of data
- Players who placed in the top 16 of the 2025 circuit standings or placed in the top 12 of 2025 Invitational or played at least 5 games in SPL XVI +XVII.
- Submitters could rank any Pokemon on their list.
- No Pokemon were mandatory to rank.
- Players The survey was left open for about two weeks.
Formation of rankings
- Cutoffs for the ranks and subranks were determined using vapicuno's method,
- The order was determined by an outlier-compensated mean ranking.
- Pokemon had to be ranked by at least five players to be included. The end result of this was that the same set of Pokemon remained on the VR with one new addition of Electabuzz.
Flaws
- A lot of submitters opted to use one of the two tierlist makers that were provided to submit their VR. This might have limited some new additions to the VR as some opted to use the VR with only currently ranked Pokemon.
- Though in comparison to the last update 15 Pokemon were ranked that were unranked previously. 8 of 19 ranked unranked Pokemon. At the last update only one submitter ranked one unranked Pokemon.
- For the next update either only one tierlist maker should be provided with ranked and unranked Pokemon together or ordered lists only should be conisdered.
Link to raw data in spreadsheet form
S1 Rank
S2 Rank
A Rank
B1 Rank
B2 Rank
C1 Rank
C2 Rank
C3 Rank
C4 Rank
D1 Rank
D2 Rank
E Rank
Visualization of results and individual rankings
All the rankings are assembled into a single image. In the New VR column, green indicates a rise and red indicates a fall when compared to the old VR. Blue indicates no movement. The pale green and red in everyone's rankings indicate what they ranked higher (green) and lower (red) than the new VR.
Observations
Exeggutor's rise in ranking isn't solely due to Starmie's fall. Its average ranking is much higher than in the May 2023 update. It was ranked as high as fourth by aminita and choolio, and lower than eighth only twice by the official Exeggutor haters melancholy0 and Zokuru (14th and 13th respectively). Exeggutor proves time and time again its offensive presence. With status moves, Leech Seed and all-out sets, it is is very hard to predict and almost always makes some sort of progress, often trading with something else. It is probably the best support mon for offensive teams with sweepers like Machamp, Marowak, Heracross and Vaporeon.
Steelix has made a comeback in the top 10! It has been used much more frequently recently, as it can deal with EQ Snorlax sets more effectively, and it performs better against stall teams. This has even brought SA Skarm into play, providing stall teams with an effective way to counter Steelix teams. It will be interesting to see what changes the rise of Steelix and the fall of Golems will cause to the metagame. Although EQ is usually too effective to be dropped on Snorlax, I expect Fire coverage to be used more often again. This is especially likely given Forretress's increased usage on offensive teams.
The popularity of Forretress on offensive teams helped it gain places in this year's update. Newer players in particular, such as aminita, cyberacc, tylerkehne and Underlying, ranked Forretress within the top 10. Its role compression of Spikes, checking Snorlax, spinning and booming makes it attractive for offensive teams, but it cannot threaten Rocks/Grounds like Cloyster can.
Machamp has replaced Nidoking as the top stallbreaker. People realised that Machamp is a better bring than other stallbreakers because it can also make good progress against offensive teams. It was ranked as high as 6th by KeshBa54 and only once lower than 13th by melancholy0, who ranked it 16th.
The development of the metagame hasn't been kind to Starmie. With offensive teams dominating the meta, Starmie's viability was bound to decrease slightly. However, it also faces competition from Tentacruel, which many players prefer for their stall teams' spinner role, as can be seen in this update, with Tentacruel rising quite a bit. Starmie has changed quite a bit on offense, too. Nightmare sets have fallen off massively, mostly because players are no longer getting caught off guard. Instead, Starmie is used more as a support mon with Thunder Wave to help another mon sweep; notable examples are Marowak, Screech Tyranitar and Machamp.
Golem's decline can be explained by Steelix's rise, and the fact that many players chose to drop it in favour of a better matchup against stall and Zapdos with Steelix and Tyranitar. As it has to fulfil both the roles of spinner and Snorlax check, it often has to sacrifice one of them, which players realised and started using it less than in previous years. Its matchup against stall teams is also often not the best, and it tends to struggle in these situations. Some people have tried to counter this by using Fire Blast instead of Roar, but these adjustments remain niche.
It shouldn't come as a suprise that in an offensive meta set-up sweeper rise in ranks. They all need their team to remove defensive checks properly. Once these checks are removed, the sweepers become difficult to stop and often force booms. Heracross and Vaporeon can also function as soft checks for certain Pokémon with RestTalk. Even Marowak is being experimented with and used by some with a RestTalk set, most notably by melancholy0.
After dropping four places in the May 2023 update, Nidoking's decline continues, this time even more severely. It drops a further 6 places, all the way to 18th. Nidoking is struggling in this offensive meta due to the prevalence of RestTalk Snorlax and Zapdos sets. The continuous rise of speedy Pokémon on offensive teams, such as Starmie, Jolteon, Espeon and Alakazam, makes Nidoking's job much harder. Nidoking's viability will likely drop further as the metagame shows no signs of slowing down.
Jolteon continues to rise, breaking into the top 20. It has proven to be the best and most consistent Baton Passer, capable of both Agility Pass and Growth Pass. The Sub set has also seen some success, preying on Raikou structures and chipping away at offensive teams. Espeon reversed the trend from the May 2023 update, gaining two places. Over the past year, it has become more popular again, both as a Growth Passer and as a sweeper. With the Morning Sun and Mono Reflect sets, it can be unpredictable for the opponent at times.
Tentacruel saw the biggest gain in the top 30. Many of those who submitted it value its spinning quality, which guarantees no Spikes versus any team that lacks a Ghost. However, it is also quite passive and requires Pursuit support to be effective. The ranking spread is quite high here. Unsurprisingly, Zokuru ranked Tentacruel the highest in 14th place, while choolio ranked it the lowest in 29th place. The SD set can be threatening, but it is only used occasionally as building with it can be difficult. It remains to be seen whether it can maintain its current position or perhaps rise further. For now, it occupies a strong niche.
The usage of Spikeless Marowak and Quagsire teams has fallen quite a bit, so the drop in Miltank usage is a side effect of that. While it still performs well enough, its passive nature can cause problems with some teams in the current metagame. The matchups versus Ghosts and the need for Pursuit support also force the same team structures. Some people have tried to counter this by using Earthquake, which makes matchups against Flying Pokémon more difficult.
The decline of Rhydon and Suicune is ongoing and should come as no surprise. Although some residents of the retirement home (Conflict, choolio and gorgie) have used Rhydon, it is difficult to justify including it in most teams as it competes directly with Tyranitar, Steelix and Golem. Its offensive power, coupled with double STAB, enables it to deal significant damage to teams lacking a good switch-in; however, in reality it often doesn't get the turns it needs to get rolling. Suicune, on the other hand, has fallen even further. It has no place in the common stall structures and using it in different ones comes with different problems. Its bulk and typing should make it relevant, but its passive nature makes Suicune unattractive in this offensive metagame. Looking forward, I can see Rhydon potentially gaining some ground. I do not see Suicune improving at all — dropping even further is far more likely.
Donphan saw the biggest overall increase in places. While it appeared in a few tournaments from time to time, its usage peaked in recent months, especially during GSCPL. Its ability to spin and its electric immunity carve out a niche for it in the metagame. However, that's about it. It is passive and offers no other notable resistance. I have a feeling this big rise is just a passing fad and Donphan will drop with the next update. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but the games I've seen haven't convinced me.
Meganium's rise in popularity can mostly be explained by its performances in SPL and the impression it has made on people. Meganium struggles a lot and is either a support mon, as in Vileman's team where it helps spread paralysis for the Drum Snorlax, or it aims to be a sweeper and needs heavy support from the rest of the team, as in the team I used last year. Otherwise, it hasn't been used much or explored much, and I don't see that changing in the future. It's difficult to justify including it in a team, as it only works in very specific structures.
The Fire Bird has fallen quite steeply. The prevalence of RestTalk Snorlax, Rocks and fast offensive threats makes Moltres's job very difficult. Fireblast has insufficient PP and Flamethrower isn't powerful enough. Other sets, such as an HP WW set, have been tried without success. With many other offensive threats rising in the ranks, and more and more people experimenting, I'm not hopeful that Moltres will be able to fight this trend and climb back up.
Electabuzz is the only newcomer at the table. Having only recently come into the spotlight, it has shown promise with its RestTalk Pursuit set. Only time will tell if it will become a regular presence in this metagame, but its ranking certainly suggests that it has made an impact. Eight out of nineteen submitters ranked it.
IMPORTANT: Please use the Smogon classic or festive theme instead of Smogon Dark to view this post (link to profile settings here for convenience). This provides a white background necessary to view the graphs in this post because of the png transparency.
The charts post. Short-ish and sweet this time. If anyone has in-depth questions hit me up in the GSC discord.
As usual I have used vapicuno's original methodology described here to assemble the VR and tiers. Thank you for supplying the code used to generate these graphics.
The average outlier-compensated ranks from everyone are
and considering only pokemon that were ranked by 5 or more players, we get the reduced list and final version of the VR,
VR Tiering Decisions
Let's zoom in to the top 35 mons where tiering decisions are expected to be more uniform and less erratic.
To read this chart: the x-axis "Integer Ranking" denotes the final ordered ranking the mons received on the VR. The y-axis "ranking with deviation" indicates the average the mon received from votes. The blue vertical lines show the deviation, roughly the highest and lowest placements, the mon received. (Adjusted for outliers)
The colored horizontal lines show how I have constructed the tiers, while the black diagonal line is a 1:1 plot of Integer Ranking vs Ranking with Deviation. A mon placed above the black line received a boost to its final ranking compared to its average rank by virtue of a slightly lower average than its peers. A mon under the black line is "under represented" when it came to the final ranking. Example: Heracross is ranked 17th despite recieving votes averaging 19.3. Miltank is ranked 25th despite receiving votes averaging 23.6.
The tiers are not that well defined this year until we get to Heracross. The top 14 or so mons fall very close to the 1:1 Integer Ranking vs Average Ranking line. As usual we turn to hierarchical clustering to help obtain the tiers. We form a dissimilarity matrix where the distances between Pokemon X and Y are given by the following: Take the rate at which voters ranked Pokemon X over Pokemon Y, take the logit transform as is done in logistic regression of a Bernoulli-distributed variable, and take the absolute value. Performing what we call a Ward linkage, this yields a dendrogram of the following sort, where the clusters (what we are going to call tiers) formed by setting a reasonable threshold are represented by different colors, and the dissimilarity between each cluster can be thought of as the vertical height of the nearest branch that connects the two clusters.
In other words, the Vaporeon-Jynx tier is a lot closer to the Skarmory-Machamp tier (connecting height ~11, note the log scale) than the Snorlax-Exeggutor cluster (connecting height ~20). Note that the order is not preserved by the algorithm, and hierarchical clustering throws away information, so this is just a rough guide to defining the tiers. I have added tier labels to help readers understand how I labelled each cluster. Of course this clustering is different than how we usually think about what "S rank" or "B rank" means in terms of viability. I took some liberties in defining the tier names so don't get too hung up on the names of each cluster.
We want to verify the validity of the clusters obtained from the dendrogram, so we next plot the dissimilarity matrix and draw out the tiers specified.
To read the dissimilarity matrix, note that zero (the darkest value) corresponds to equal number of people voting in favor and against the Pokemon on the Y axis > X axis, and the higher the value, the more one-sided the voting becomes. In other words, the darker, the more indistinguishable the Pokemon on the X and Y axis become, and a well-defined tier would be a fully dark square. (I.e. Snorlax) Going by this matrix I could have changed C3 and C4 to D1 and D2 as the overlap with C1-C2 peters out around the middle of C3. I chose not to. Sue me.
This yields the following subdivision which I have decided on:
S1:
S2:
A:
B1:
B2:
C1:
C2:
C3:
C4:
D1:
D2:
E:
Numerical ranks represent partial tiers, whereas letter ranks represent a more complete separation.
Metagame Shifts
This chart shows the difference between this and last year's VRs, together with the uncertainties in the means (not the standard deviation, but the standard deviations divided by sqrt(N-1)).
A better way to understand how significant these changes are so as not to mistake changes occurring as due to pure chance is to plot the z-score,
In this chart we can see Nidoking fell off hard. (Two updates in a row). Donphan, Machamp, Meganium, and Exeggutor saw large boosts in public opinion this update cycle.
Something of note here is that Zapdos's decrease in average ranking was the 13th most statistically significant. Despite this, its final ranking did not change from 2023 to 2025.
Individual Analyses
For those who are interested to see whose S to C rankings are closest to theirs, you can refer to the chart below. The numbers inside the box go from -100% (full anticorrelation) to 100% (full correlation). They are sorted by the S1 to C1 dendrogram order (and the light squares represent the camps).
And finally, these are the relative ranks of everyone. Blue = disfavor, Red = favor. Cyan lines demarcate tier cutoffs.
Closing Remarks
Graphs are fun. Digging into the data is half the fun I have when we make VR updates I hope we can keep of the good discussion this year! I'll make another post a little later to talk about some trends I found interesting.
Once again thank you everyone who participated in this project!
The charts post. Short-ish and sweet this time. If anyone has in-depth questions hit me up in the GSC discord.
As usual I have used vapicuno's original methodology described here to assemble the VR and tiers. Thank you for supplying the code used to generate these graphics.
The average outlier-compensated ranks from everyone are
01 Snorlax
02 Zapdos
03 Cloyster
04 Raikou
05 Gengar
06 Tyranitar
07 Exeggutor
08 Steelix
09 Skarmory
10 Forretress
11 Machamp
12 Starmie
13 Golem
14 Vaporeon
15 Marowak
16 Jynx
17 Heracross
18 Nidoking
19 Jolteon
20 Umbreon
21 Misdreavus
22 Tentacruel
23 Espeon
24 Alakazam
25 Miltank
26 Blissey
27 Quagsire
28 Rhydon
29 Suicune
30 Smeargle
31 Porygon2
32 Dragonite
33 Charizard
34 Donphan
35 Meganium
36 Kingdra
37 Houndooom
38 Moltres
39 Scizor
40 Venusaur
41 Kangaskhan
42 Muk
43 Shuckle
44 Piloswine
45 Electabuzz
46 Clefable
47 Articuno
48 Delibird
49 Aerodactyl
50 Gligar
51 Lapras
52 Entei
53 Ursaring
54 Blastoise
55 Ampharos
56 Mr. Mime
57 Victreebel
58 Omastar
59 Girafarig
60 Slowbro
61 Hitmonlee
62 Sandslash
63 Tauros
64 Qwilfish
65 Jumpluff
66 Typhlosion
67 Nidoqueen
68 Scyther
69 Arcanine
70 Pikachu
71 Vileplume
72 Murkrow
73 Electrode
74 Primeape
75 Dugtrio
02 Zapdos
03 Cloyster
04 Raikou
05 Gengar
06 Tyranitar
07 Exeggutor
08 Steelix
09 Skarmory
10 Forretress
11 Machamp
12 Starmie
13 Golem
14 Vaporeon
15 Marowak
16 Jynx
17 Heracross
18 Nidoking
19 Jolteon
20 Umbreon
21 Misdreavus
22 Tentacruel
23 Espeon
24 Alakazam
25 Miltank
26 Blissey
27 Quagsire
28 Rhydon
29 Suicune
30 Smeargle
31 Porygon2
32 Dragonite
33 Charizard
34 Donphan
35 Meganium
36 Kingdra
37 Houndooom
38 Moltres
39 Scizor
40 Venusaur
41 Kangaskhan
42 Muk
43 Shuckle
44 Piloswine
45 Electabuzz
46 Clefable
47 Articuno
48 Delibird
49 Aerodactyl
50 Gligar
51 Lapras
52 Entei
53 Ursaring
54 Blastoise
55 Ampharos
56 Mr. Mime
57 Victreebel
58 Omastar
59 Girafarig
60 Slowbro
61 Hitmonlee
62 Sandslash
63 Tauros
64 Qwilfish
65 Jumpluff
66 Typhlosion
67 Nidoqueen
68 Scyther
69 Arcanine
70 Pikachu
71 Vileplume
72 Murkrow
73 Electrode
74 Primeape
75 Dugtrio
01 Snorlax
02 Zapdos
03 Cloyster
04 Raikou
05 Gengar
06 Tyranitar
07 Exeggutor
08 Steelix
09 Skarmory
10 Forretress
11 Machamp
12 Starmie
13 Golem
14 Vaporeon
15 Marowak
16 Jynx
17 Heracross
18 Nidoking
19 Jolteon
20 Umbreon
21 Misdreavus
22 Tentacruel
23 Espeon
24 Alakazam
25 Miltank
26 Blissey
27 Quagsire
28 Rhydon
29 Suicune
30 Smeargle
31 Porygon2
32 Dragonite
33 Charizard
34 Donphan
35 Meganium
36 Kingdra
37 Houndooom
38 Moltres
39 Scizor
40 Venusaur
41 Kangaskhan
42 Muk
43 Shuckle
44 Piloswine
45 Electabuzz
46 Clefable
47 Articuno
48 Aerodactyl
49 Gligar
50 Entei
51 Ursaring
52 Ampharos
53 Omastar
54 Hitmonlee
55 Sandslash
56 Tauros
57 Qwilfish
58 Jumpluff
59 Typhlosion
60 Nidoqueen
61 Pikachu
02 Zapdos
03 Cloyster
04 Raikou
05 Gengar
06 Tyranitar
07 Exeggutor
08 Steelix
09 Skarmory
10 Forretress
11 Machamp
12 Starmie
13 Golem
14 Vaporeon
15 Marowak
16 Jynx
17 Heracross
18 Nidoking
19 Jolteon
20 Umbreon
21 Misdreavus
22 Tentacruel
23 Espeon
24 Alakazam
25 Miltank
26 Blissey
27 Quagsire
28 Rhydon
29 Suicune
30 Smeargle
31 Porygon2
32 Dragonite
33 Charizard
34 Donphan
35 Meganium
36 Kingdra
37 Houndooom
38 Moltres
39 Scizor
40 Venusaur
41 Kangaskhan
42 Muk
43 Shuckle
44 Piloswine
45 Electabuzz
46 Clefable
47 Articuno
48 Aerodactyl
49 Gligar
50 Entei
51 Ursaring
52 Ampharos
53 Omastar
54 Hitmonlee
55 Sandslash
56 Tauros
57 Qwilfish
58 Jumpluff
59 Typhlosion
60 Nidoqueen
61 Pikachu
VR Tiering Decisions
To read this chart: the x-axis "Integer Ranking" denotes the final ordered ranking the mons received on the VR. The y-axis "ranking with deviation" indicates the average the mon received from votes. The blue vertical lines show the deviation, roughly the highest and lowest placements, the mon received. (Adjusted for outliers)
The colored horizontal lines show how I have constructed the tiers, while the black diagonal line is a 1:1 plot of Integer Ranking vs Ranking with Deviation. A mon placed above the black line received a boost to its final ranking compared to its average rank by virtue of a slightly lower average than its peers. A mon under the black line is "under represented" when it came to the final ranking. Example: Heracross is ranked 17th despite recieving votes averaging 19.3. Miltank is ranked 25th despite receiving votes averaging 23.6.
The tiers are not that well defined this year until we get to Heracross. The top 14 or so mons fall very close to the 1:1 Integer Ranking vs Average Ranking line. As usual we turn to hierarchical clustering to help obtain the tiers. We form a dissimilarity matrix where the distances between Pokemon X and Y are given by the following: Take the rate at which voters ranked Pokemon X over Pokemon Y, take the logit transform as is done in logistic regression of a Bernoulli-distributed variable, and take the absolute value. Performing what we call a Ward linkage, this yields a dendrogram of the following sort, where the clusters (what we are going to call tiers) formed by setting a reasonable threshold are represented by different colors, and the dissimilarity between each cluster can be thought of as the vertical height of the nearest branch that connects the two clusters.
In other words, the Vaporeon-Jynx tier is a lot closer to the Skarmory-Machamp tier (connecting height ~11, note the log scale) than the Snorlax-Exeggutor cluster (connecting height ~20). Note that the order is not preserved by the algorithm, and hierarchical clustering throws away information, so this is just a rough guide to defining the tiers. I have added tier labels to help readers understand how I labelled each cluster. Of course this clustering is different than how we usually think about what "S rank" or "B rank" means in terms of viability. I took some liberties in defining the tier names so don't get too hung up on the names of each cluster.
To read the dissimilarity matrix, note that zero (the darkest value) corresponds to equal number of people voting in favor and against the Pokemon on the Y axis > X axis, and the higher the value, the more one-sided the voting becomes. In other words, the darker, the more indistinguishable the Pokemon on the X and Y axis become, and a well-defined tier would be a fully dark square. (I.e. Snorlax) Going by this matrix I could have changed C3 and C4 to D1 and D2 as the overlap with C1-C2 peters out around the middle of C3. I chose not to. Sue me.
This yields the following subdivision which I have decided on:
S1:
S2:
A:
B1:
B2:
C1:
C2:
C3:
C4:
D1:
D2:
E:
Numerical ranks represent partial tiers, whereas letter ranks represent a more complete separation.
Metagame Shifts
This chart shows the difference between this and last year's VRs, together with the uncertainties in the means (not the standard deviation, but the standard deviations divided by sqrt(N-1)).
In this chart we can see Nidoking fell off hard. (Two updates in a row). Donphan, Machamp, Meganium, and Exeggutor saw large boosts in public opinion this update cycle.
Something of note here is that Zapdos's decrease in average ranking was the 13th most statistically significant. Despite this, its final ranking did not change from 2023 to 2025.
Individual Analyses
For those who are interested to see whose S to C rankings are closest to theirs, you can refer to the chart below. The numbers inside the box go from -100% (full anticorrelation) to 100% (full correlation). They are sorted by the S1 to C1 dendrogram order (and the light squares represent the camps).
And finally, these are the relative ranks of everyone. Blue = disfavor, Red = favor. Cyan lines demarcate tier cutoffs.
Graphs are fun. Digging into the data is half the fun I have when we make VR updates I hope we can keep of the good discussion this year! I'll make another post a little later to talk about some trends I found interesting.
Once again thank you everyone who participated in this project!
I wanted to post a few of my own observations about the movements in this VR update. These play off some of the comments vani makes be sure to read that post.
Raikou (+0)
Raikou did not move positions since the 2023 VR but it has played a major role in some recent evolutions of offense. A trend I've seen recently is an increase in sole-Raikou offenses- offense teams that use Raikou as their only electric type. This is nominally done to improve matchup spreads against Zapdos based offense teams, but it also frees Snorlax to run more aggressive movesets. This isn't a new idea by any means, see the ever popular HeraKou+4 booms squad, but Raikou offense is being explored and used more now than it has ever before. I personally don't love these new structures. Some feel too matchup-fishy or skimp too much against strong ground attacks. Regardless of my opinions on the structure it is undeniability worth remembering and is impacting how people view the meta.
Steelix (+3)
While more traditional Zapdos offenses usually have a focused system of defensive checks and offensive game plans, the new wave of Raikou offenses use more soft checks and diverse attacking options. Mons Exeggutor, Forretress, and Vaporeon can act as short term checks to various threats while Snorlax leads the way with varied attacking options enabled by Raikou's special defensive abilities. Steelix doesn't fit in well on these sorts of teams as its attacking options are fairly linear. However, Steelix does very well when facing off against these sorts of teams. Against varied offense threats focused defensive answers are as useful, what is useful is a generalist. Steelix's impressive physical bulk and neutrality to Electric+Ice coverage give it value in the current meta where it isn't as important to wall one mon forever, rather survive a few key switch-ins, pivot out, and later explode.
Starmie (-5)
I don't have too much to say about Starmie, I just wanted to mention that I was always confused by how high it was on the 2023 VR. Nightmare Starmie being less valuable (it only took people 3 years to learn how to play against it lol) and Tentacruel being valued higher only partially contribute to Starmie's drop. I think most of this drop is just regression to the mean. After all in 2023 Mie's integer rank of #7 significantly outperformed its average ranking of 9.43, this year it ranks #12 with an average ranking of 12.00.
Golem (-4)
Very much agree with vani here, Steelix's rise directly mirrors Golem's fall. Both mons compete for the same team slots and it is close to a zero-sum game. The meta of wide coverage move is also more hostile to Golem these days, though you see less stray water moves specifically trying to get the jump Golem. Golem also doesn't synergize well with teams using diverse attacking options. These teams implicitly sacrifice defense and try to win quicker than more rounded teams. Counterintuitively these teams value Golem's Rapid Spin less as shorter games mean Spikes have a smaller impact. On a brighter note I feel Golem has been unfairly maligned over the past few year as the "basic" choice for offense teams. I think we will see a moderate Golem resurgence in the coming years/months.
Nidoking (-6)
With how I've been hyping up "wide offense" and chastising teams that cheat on ground checks you'd think a mixed attacker like Nidoking would more use. I think the idea is sound in theory but isn't in practice quite yet. It's true that the popular mixed attacking sets these days pressure RestTalk Snorlax better than Nidoking can. (Frequently with Explosion or Curse) Fast offensive mons like Jolteon, Espeon, and Alakazam also surpress Nidoking, but Nidoking still has valuable traits like checking Machamp or punishing those Raikou spammers. People talk about Nidoking and disrespect it in the builder like it is a D-rank mon, not #18 in the VR. I think the player base is still so traumatized by how heavily the metagame evolved to punish Nidoking (mostly because of Jynx becoming popular) that people remain reluctant to bring the purple kaiju. The Raikou offense trend takes advantage of this reluctance but I think the pendulum with start to swing back in the other direction. While I don't think Nidoking will ever be a top 10 threat again, I don't think it will fall any further. It may even make up a place or two in the next VR.
Donphan (+9)
Donphan's ranking is undeniability being hyped up by some community memery and recency bias. I even rated it below average despite being one of its most frequent users. Despite that, Donphan has been critically re-evaluated by the player base and shown to hold more value than once thought. I like to equate Donphan on offense to Suicune on stall. It isn't a great check against any one mon, but it is a decent switch in to a lot of things. This hasn't shown to be a winning formula on defensive teams *cough* *cough* Suicune (-5), but I think it works on offense. Players using offense are so conditioned by Golem that they almost instinctually switch in their spiker when they see a ground type Rapid Spinner. Just the threat of Rapid Spin can swing the momentum of an offense vs. offense game and give all the initiative to the Spin user. Since Donphan doesn’t have Golem's, ground, fighting, 4x water, or 4x grass weaknesses it finds more chances to switch in and initiate that reversal of momentum. Additionally, because Donphan isn't your important Snorlax check it can afford to play more fast and loose with its HP. (Most offense Donphan also run Protect for this perk)
Some advantages Donphan has over Golem are: switches in better against Ttar/Lix/Golem, doesn't stack a fighting weakness with your actual Lax check, and takes less risk if it decides stay in and tango when Cloyster switches in. It is also better into mixed Ttar than Starmie is and can Spin on electric types more than Mie can.
Overall I think Donphan has a nice niche in OU and is being helped out by being good into Raikou offenses. Donphan also requires different counterplay than Golem does and many player haven't learned those intricacies yet. I believe the Don's rank will hold mostly steady on the next VR. (RestTalk Donphan also exists on stall but it's a bargain bin Tentacruel for Forretress matchups that is better against Ttar and spin blockers. I don't like it but your mileage may vary.)
Addendum
As some fun, here's the correlation matrix for each user's VR with the inclusion of "Mr VR" aka the final aggregate rankings. s/o MrSoup for asking for this.
Raikou (+0)Raikou did not move positions since the 2023 VR but it has played a major role in some recent evolutions of offense. A trend I've seen recently is an increase in sole-Raikou offenses- offense teams that use Raikou as their only electric type. This is nominally done to improve matchup spreads against Zapdos based offense teams, but it also frees Snorlax to run more aggressive movesets. This isn't a new idea by any means, see the ever popular HeraKou+4 booms squad, but Raikou offense is being explored and used more now than it has ever before. I personally don't love these new structures. Some feel too matchup-fishy or skimp too much against strong ground attacks. Regardless of my opinions on the structure it is undeniability worth remembering and is impacting how people view the meta.
While more traditional Zapdos offenses usually have a focused system of defensive checks and offensive game plans, the new wave of Raikou offenses use more soft checks and diverse attacking options. Mons Exeggutor, Forretress, and Vaporeon can act as short term checks to various threats while Snorlax leads the way with varied attacking options enabled by Raikou's special defensive abilities. Steelix doesn't fit in well on these sorts of teams as its attacking options are fairly linear. However, Steelix does very well when facing off against these sorts of teams. Against varied offense threats focused defensive answers are as useful, what is useful is a generalist. Steelix's impressive physical bulk and neutrality to Electric+Ice coverage give it value in the current meta where it isn't as important to wall one mon forever, rather survive a few key switch-ins, pivot out, and later explode.
I don't have too much to say about Starmie, I just wanted to mention that I was always confused by how high it was on the 2023 VR. Nightmare Starmie being less valuable (it only took people 3 years to learn how to play against it lol) and Tentacruel being valued higher only partially contribute to Starmie's drop. I think most of this drop is just regression to the mean. After all in 2023 Mie's integer rank of #7 significantly outperformed its average ranking of 9.43, this year it ranks #12 with an average ranking of 12.00.
Very much agree with vani here, Steelix's rise directly mirrors Golem's fall. Both mons compete for the same team slots and it is close to a zero-sum game. The meta of wide coverage move is also more hostile to Golem these days, though you see less stray water moves specifically trying to get the jump Golem. Golem also doesn't synergize well with teams using diverse attacking options. These teams implicitly sacrifice defense and try to win quicker than more rounded teams. Counterintuitively these teams value Golem's Rapid Spin less as shorter games mean Spikes have a smaller impact. On a brighter note I feel Golem has been unfairly maligned over the past few year as the "basic" choice for offense teams. I think we will see a moderate Golem resurgence in the coming years/months.
With how I've been hyping up "wide offense" and chastising teams that cheat on ground checks you'd think a mixed attacker like Nidoking would more use. I think the idea is sound in theory but isn't in practice quite yet. It's true that the popular mixed attacking sets these days pressure RestTalk Snorlax better than Nidoking can. (Frequently with Explosion or Curse) Fast offensive mons like Jolteon, Espeon, and Alakazam also surpress Nidoking, but Nidoking still has valuable traits like checking Machamp or punishing those Raikou spammers. People talk about Nidoking and disrespect it in the builder like it is a D-rank mon, not #18 in the VR. I think the player base is still so traumatized by how heavily the metagame evolved to punish Nidoking (mostly because of Jynx becoming popular) that people remain reluctant to bring the purple kaiju. The Raikou offense trend takes advantage of this reluctance but I think the pendulum with start to swing back in the other direction. While I don't think Nidoking will ever be a top 10 threat again, I don't think it will fall any further. It may even make up a place or two in the next VR.
Donphan's ranking is undeniability being hyped up by some community memery and recency bias. I even rated it below average despite being one of its most frequent users. Despite that, Donphan has been critically re-evaluated by the player base and shown to hold more value than once thought. I like to equate Donphan on offense to Suicune on stall. It isn't a great check against any one mon, but it is a decent switch in to a lot of things. This hasn't shown to be a winning formula on defensive teams *cough* *cough* Suicune (-5), but I think it works on offense. Players using offense are so conditioned by Golem that they almost instinctually switch in their spiker when they see a ground type Rapid Spinner. Just the threat of Rapid Spin can swing the momentum of an offense vs. offense game and give all the initiative to the Spin user. Since Donphan doesn’t have Golem's, ground, fighting, 4x water, or 4x grass weaknesses it finds more chances to switch in and initiate that reversal of momentum. Additionally, because Donphan isn't your important Snorlax check it can afford to play more fast and loose with its HP. (Most offense Donphan also run Protect for this perk)
Some advantages Donphan has over Golem are: switches in better against Ttar/Lix/Golem, doesn't stack a fighting weakness with your actual Lax check, and takes less risk if it decides stay in and tango when Cloyster switches in. It is also better into mixed Ttar than Starmie is and can Spin on electric types more than Mie can.
Overall I think Donphan has a nice niche in OU and is being helped out by being good into Raikou offenses. Donphan also requires different counterplay than Golem does and many player haven't learned those intricacies yet. I believe the Don's rank will hold mostly steady on the next VR. (RestTalk Donphan also exists on stall but it's a bargain bin Tentacruel for Forretress matchups that is better against Ttar and spin blockers. I don't like it but your mileage may vary.)
Addendum
As some fun, here's the correlation matrix for each user's VR with the inclusion of "Mr VR" aka the final aggregate rankings. s/o MrSoup for asking for this.