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NOC Everchanging Mafia - Game thread - Day 4!

Celever said:
Tbh I think if Bliz flips scum ECat’s probtown so this is a route whereby we don’t have to vote ECat eventually. Particularly if phoopes is also scum. I think Bliz + phoopes scumteam is above rand likely and Bliz + phoopes + ECat scumteam is far far below rand likely

Ik wym wrt policy and we should do that, but we also did that right? We heavily pressured ECat, that’s the consequence, now gamestate has moved onto better leads imo
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I will say this in my readpost but Bliz!Scum does play against the waves, in Wikimafia bliz went for the Tommy push (townleader) once there was a case made against him, but overall Blizmafia posts more nothingburgers than what they posted this game, the difference could be due to them taking the spotlight early on in this game tho, while being more afk in wikimafia
 
I think they are probably more likely than average to be town. I kinda feel like they're just throwing bombs and not really backing their statements up, but that does seem to be in their town range. I don't mean that as an insult, it's just how some people play lol. I am still willing to entertain scum Celever, especially if ECat is scum, because this line of play could be a way of transitioning from a guaranteed lynch on ECat into a mislynch on me. If ECat is town and Celever is scum, I think they would probably not go this hard on me defending Ecat, because my "defense" of Ecat was not very flattering to ECat lol. I guess if ECat is town and Peum is scum it does make sense for Celever to be scum. But yeah, overall town read.
Mostly the same rationale as Celever here, but in his case it kinda feels like he's just going along with stuff other people have said. I am also kind of having a hard time following his rationale for his reads, which seems much weirder for Town Phoopes than it does for Town Celever. OTOH I have not been able to read super closely while catching up, so I might have just missed stuff. So I think Phoopes is maybe slightly more likely than average to be scum, but I'm not going to vote him over it, particularly not today. I would much rather see ECat lynched, and anyway, nobody is going to go with me on this lol.
The impression that I have of a fairy is that this is extremely similar to her town play. I've only played with her once, and we were both scum, so it's a little hard to tell. But I'm seeing more genuine engagement with the game/scumhunting early here than I remember from that game. In particular, I think getting kinda tilted and complaining in thread is in their range as either alignment, but I think scum would be more likely to just stop posting about it in thread after a certain point. So light townread on her. When I started this post I had a light scumread on her, but after looking back at her posts I changed my mind. Also, for the record -- if you're reading this, I'm sorry that the misgendering thing happened. I really think that was the kind of interaction that goes 500x worse in mafia than it would in any other context.
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LonelyNess Sorry you had to work overtime man, hope this funny pic I found makes up for it?
Anyone else I don't have a ton of thoughts on, or they're ECat/Peum/Vishy who I outlined my thoughts on in the above post.
 
Uhhh but only mild thoughts. Basically I feel like pulsar is playing very similarly to last game -- I am not sure how much of this is just personality vs scum tells though. I would really like to hear reads from her, because right now there is relatively little reads/scumhunting content from her. I still think ECat is probably more likely to be scum but I would absolutely be down to pressure vote pulsar, and maybe leave it depending on her response.

DBD -- I had them in an earlier draft of the last post but then I accidentally cut them lol. I am kinda used to seeing more high-effort scumhunting from DBD. I don't think anything they've said so far is scummy or reads poorly to me, but again this feels like a case where "if they don't post more, or if they do post more and it stinks, I could sour quickly."

des -- Is it just me or is it fucking crazy that des has only made like 30 posts this game? Why is she flying under the radar? I recognize that she's hard to form an opinion on, and probably even harder in a nearly pure vanilla game. The odds of her ever holding a power are very low unless she's scum (in which case she will claim to not have the power anyway). But idk, my impression from the last game was that des kinda just gave up as scum; we're two days in and her play rn seems totally consistent with that?
 
Anyway I still would rather lynch ECat than Phoopes, just bc my scumread on him is pretty weak. Does anyone have like a specific rationale/logic for scumreading Phoopes? If there's something he said I can look at that more closely.
 
1. LonelyNess - kinda just not existed which fair fuck capitalism but i think his attempt to get a handful of his oc friends (including me tbf!) to like, validate his oc habits indicating that he's town rubs me wrong
2. A fairy - i am town
3. Peum - his nonsense makes me think he is town
4. phoopes - this feels like town phoopes
5. vishy fishy - i don't know what their deal is. are people really scumreading them lol?
6. des121 - i missed her scum game but current des doesn't feel like the town des i remember
7. Dead by Daylight - has like 5 posts or whatever and one of them made everyone think ecat's town suddenly
8. Miyami~~~ - i feel like i havent seen a single miyami post
9. pulsar512b - MIA. stop being MIA.
10. Evie - i could see evie being scum ngl. feels present, feels active, but kinda feels like the second or third most present person in any given discussion or argument rather than actually being present
11. AirC - my recollection of airc has been that they seem super lost which i feel like is town indicative
12. Celever - gut instinct is that this is town celever
13. Westcraft - do we think mafia peppers alice with questions and then has westcraft front that info to get towncred by claiming it was in their role pm
15. ElectricityCat - i didnt think ecat's d1 play was scummy before it was cool
16. Blizihguh - their reads feel genuine ngl
17. Genisu - no comment. idk. if i had to make a call, probably town but doesnt town genisu do more??
 
a fairy said:
13. Westcraft - do we think mafia peppers alice with questions and then has westcraft front that info to get towncred by claiming it was in their role pm
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I thought about it and imo no

If westcraft was the mafia peppering Alice in scumchat then yes this happens but that’s essentially the same as doing it in your role PM anyway

If it was a scumteam question pepper, sending the newbie out as the messenger is the least optimal person to do it lol
 
It would feel strange to me to think that no member of the Mafia is actively engaging in the thread. Usually there’s always someone trying to do some scumhunting, right? If that’s the case, what caught my attention is that at the end of D1 and through the middle of D2, Celever, Evie, and Peum were almost monopolizing the thread. If you thought differently from them, they would contradict you and treat you a bit like you were crazy.
Evie said:
i feel like the only other sane people in this game are peum and celever
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I would say that at least one of Evie, Peum, or Celever is Mafia. They’re the ones building themselves up as a towncore in an exaggeratedly fast way. I’ve seen other users try to shift the direction a bit or say that they think differently, and they don’t really let them operate.

Another possibility I’m thinking is that the Mafia is relaxed, and they could be among the ones not giving much input. Miyami is the one that surprises me the most, because the last time we played she had a lot of participation and was town. Genisu also kind of fits here; yesterday he was very confident that I was scum and still haven’t even voted me.
 
I feel like they punched and kicked me in the face, but instead of finishing the job, they called an ambulance.

They left me in a spot where my opinion is still too suspicious and I have no real engagement. But if they’re not going to hammer me, then I guess I have to change my vote.

##Unvote
##Vote: Peum

VishyFishy is certainly involved in some somewhat fishy things. But it doesn’t feel like enough to vote them yet; I’d like to see more of what they think before making a decision on them.

I’m going to be AFK for a couple of hours, but I’ll be back 100% before the deadline. I’m not sure how much time exactly, but at least around 2 hours.
 
Hey fwiw I will say that I have the instinct to dominate discussions regardless of alignment but particularly this game am making efforts not to dominate or shut other povs down

I can see how scumreading Bliz’ case can be interpreted as that but, I mean it was a scummy case :psynervous: Also gotta provide my own thoughts and votes yk! But I’d contest that I’m shutting down anyone who thinks diff to me p strongly

Is Peum doing that, yeah lowk, but I don’t think I am x3 And I don’t think Evie is, she could be scum for other reasons but I don’t think she’s shutting people down
 
ElectricityCat said:
Another possibility I’m thinking is that the Mafia is relaxed, and they could be among the ones not giving much input. Miyami is the one that surprises me the most, because the last time we played she had a lot of participation and was town. Genisu also kind of fits here; yesterday he was very confident that I was scum and still haven’t even voted me.
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I do think this is probably the world for at least 50% of scum tho, prob 75%
 
Blizihguh said:
I am going to outline my rationale for voting Peum as clearly as I possibly can in one, single post, and then every time Celever tells me I'm not defending my argument or it doesn't make sense I'm just going to link back to this.

TL;DR: I think ECat could reasonably be town. Peum has been tunneling them with very dubious logic, and doing very little else. I think Peum could be scum even if ECat is also scum, so voting them was not logically inconsistent. My main goal was just to get a second wagon going, and Peum is in roughly the same ballpark of scumminess as ECat, imo. That wagon blew up in my face though, and the alternatives suck, so I'm back to ECat for now.

1. Expecting ECat to claim Mayor purely because Peum said they should is really flimsy.
Peum spent most of D1 repeating that Mayor should claim, and that it was really scummy for Mayor not to claim. As far as I can tell, two other people echoed this statement (me and Celever), and we both did so exactly once. So, I do not think it is that meaningful for ECat to have ignored this. I especially think this because (as we will see in the next paragraph), Peum was already criticizing ECat D1.

2. ECat has been playing like an unconfident townie.
I do not think ECat is guaranteed to be town. Like I said earlier, I'm like 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of them being scum. But the way they've been playing is perfectly consistent as town. They made a random vote D1, because they claimed not to know what to do. They got shouted down for it and fucked off for the rest of the day. Does that sound like anybody you've ever met? Because I think there's been at least two of these players in every mafia game I've ever played. Almost always they are town. The main reason I'm scumreading ECat at this point is that their defense of their actions D2 has been very flimsy and at times seemingly contradictory. But again, people saying stupid or confusing shit is not that uncommon in this game. It is actually pretty common for the type of player that would engage in that pattern of behavior D1. So, it's not inconceivable to me that they are town. For completeness, I still think dropping Mayor is questionable behavior and not super likely from town. But I 100% understand why someone would do this after they placed a vote D1 and got yelled at by several people. I, as an overly-confident player, understand why they got yelled at. But some of the posts were extremely vague ("worst post of all time"), and I would expect an unconfident player to get extremely demoralized by them. Which is exactly in line with what ECat was posting.

3. A huge portion of Peum's "scumhunting" has just been tunneling ECat.
Peum set this shit up D1, and has said nothing about anyone other than ECat today. 15 hours ago they said they would and then kinda fucked off out of the thread. I recognize that that is consistent with "they went to bed," but it still doesn't change the fact that they have been hyper focused on this one thing. As laid out above, I think their reasoning for suspecting ECat is questionable at best. It seems like everyone else now thinks ECat could easily be town, so I don't even slightly understand why we've all decided by fiat that Peum is town? Literally all they have done is push ECat. Is this some Peum player meta shit that I am not aware of? I genuinely do not understand why everyone is locktowning Peum and people keep posting "Bliz is scum because why on earth would he think Peum is scum here???"

4. ECat Town + Peum Scum makes perfect sense. ECat Scum + Peum Scum seems, at least, plausible to me. ECat Scum + Peum Town is also logically consistent, but I don't buy it for the above reasons.
I don't think I need to explain either of the TvS possibilities. TvT is also possible, but I do not have any other leads at this point. I will explain again why I think SvS is possible here. Basically, I think it is possible that Scum Peum was setting up for this mayor claim thing, and then Scum ECat just forgot to post/vote at the end of the day. ECat was pretty low activity D1, especially after half the thread yelled at them, including (in this scenario) their scumbuddy. It seems totally plausible to me that Scum ECat just kind of checked out for a bit there. Then, when they got back to scumchat N1, they were met with some variation of "well you look super scummy now and I'm kinda locked into bussing you, sorry." The fact that people have somehow started turning around on ECat D2 does not change the fact that all of the above is at least plausible. In particular, if one or more of the people pushing me are mafia, this could easily be a case of "mafia thought they were going to have to lynch ECat today, but they realized they had a chance to lynch me instead, either saving ECat for tomorrow or just letting town forget about them." In fact, if I flip after "chainsaw defending" ECat, mafia could easily spin that as "look, Bliz is town and they defended ECat!" When in reality, I am still saying they're >50% scum!

5. I am voting ECat right now because I still think they are reasonably likely to be scum, and the alternative lynch is apparently Vishyfishy.
I tried to start an alternative lynch and everybody jumped on me for it. I do not understand why. I do not have the bandwidth right now to attempt to find another lead that town will actually go for. I am already dedicating too much time to this game, relative to the other obligations in my life, because I am a Mafia Lifer and it's fun for me. But everyone scumreads me and I'm not going to slog through iso'ing random people, because my scum reads at this point are Peum I'm not going to vote vishyfishy, because they read to me like they're probably town, and I am HIGHLY suspicious of any lynch on an "easy mislynch" player that suddenly rockets to the top of the votals. So, my options here are to wait for something else to come along, or to try to push through a vote on another person. But who am I going to vote for? Not Peum apparently.

I will lay out my reads on other people now but I just want to keep this post centered on ECat/Peum. I can understand people calling my assumptions here dubious, but I think literally everything I have said in this post is something I've said in a previous post. So anyone saying "I have no logic" or "haven't defended my position" is just completely ignoring the shit I'm saying.
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Tbh i think both scum is more likely bc otherwise i feel like we just kinda lose

Ok ignore this post im sorry this makes no sense i woke up like 2 minutes ago and had like 5 hours of sleep
 
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