Metagame NP ZU Stage 18: FLOWER - Tier Shifts #28

zause This is gonna be my last post on this matter since it seems people do not want a floatzel retest. Because of personal and commitment issues + time zone I don't really play tournaments in general so my experience is just based on the replays I've watched, team dumps and ladder play. Besides, ladder play is like a cash game in poker. It's important too.

Maybe it's better to keep this convo in a DM, but I don't see why it's necessarily wrong to want a retest shortly after a ban, if the tiering realities have changed. It is very interesting to me how this does not go the other way around when talking about banning mons. People will continue to complain and bitch and spread misinformation hoping to get the council and dnb players to fold and ban the thing and Oricorio-F is a good example in this sense.

Everyone agrees Venu has an important impact on the metagame, and to me it seems it can tailor its evs just fine and deviate from the standard spread without losing its ability to check floatzel. Other grasses have always been there, too, they're all here since they aren't good in higher tiers and can serve as a secondary check to floatzel.

Note how both of your posts involve specifically tera water floatzel. That means you are putting a lot of faith in this mon specifically. I believe this is a massive tera hog red flag. On scald I think I exaggerated since it is rare, but my points on will o wisp and scorching sands remain tbh. Hurricane and Eruption are anything but spammable, Hurricane is the reason I don't really like using Zard anymore, while Typhlosion needs hazards gone (or use a HDB set, at which point I'd rather just use zard but that's just me).

Scald + Flip Turn Lanturn doesn't sound outrageous to me... you still have room for an electric move and a support move e.g. twave or eerie impulse. Please don't tell me you're using resttalk... maybe running physically defensive rocky helmet/HDB with volt absorb sounds ideal here.
Volt switch is not very spammable imo exactly because of Jolteon, with Sandslash also contributing. Liquid ooze swalot is much more gimmicky tbh than stacking another item instead of standard ooga bunga heavy duty boots, the most overrated item in pokemon, so imo an ability is much more fundamental on a mon than the item its running. And so using Shaymin @ Rocky Helmet as an U-Turn absorber is viable, the thing has recovery.

Back when I was laddering in the Floatzel test I initially relied on scarf passimian before reeling it in by using MethMaster4546's physically defensive Eelektross set and a *specially* defensive Mesprit, both with Knock Off. And yeah, the Mesprit had a helmet.



Braviary honestly was underexplored before suddenly jumping to NU, and I believe H-Sneasel remains just as good as ever. Not sure about choice scarf, perhaps these two in fact actually act as good revenge killers
 
Maybe it's better to keep this convo in a DM, but I don't see why it's necessarily wrong to want a retest shortly after a ban, if the tiering realities have changed. It is very interesting to me how this does not go the other way around when talking about banning mons. People will continue to complain and bitch and spread misinformation hoping to get the council and dnb players to fold and ban the thing and Oricorio-F is a good example in this sense.
Tiering realities have not changed; more on that below though. You can complain all you want about misinformation and opinion manipulation, but you just sound like conspiracist if you don't point at specific arguments / events. This even more ridiculous when you make points about Floatzel being important to combat the Scald / Scorching Sands / Will-O-Wisp epidemic, which has already been debunked by others for being a ridiculous claim (moves with barely any uses and whose users can straight up OHKO Floatzel).

Everyone agrees Venu has an important impact on the metagame, and to me it seems it can tailor its evs just fine and deviate from the standard spread without losing its ability to check floatzel. Other grasses have always been there, too, they're all here since they aren't good in higher tiers and can serve as a secondary check to floatzel.
This is nothing new; we've always had slower Grass-types that get outsped and 2HKO after very minimal set-up by Floatzel's Wave Crash. If anything Venusaur's drop has made it harder to justify using other Grass-types that had a better match-up into Floatzel like Scarf Rotom-Mow, Whimsicott, and Arboliva. Grass-types already were popular when Floatzel was allowed and this was acknowledged by ban voters.

Note how both of your posts involve specifically tera water floatzel. That means you are putting a lot of faith in this mon specifically. I believe this is a massive tera hog red flag. On scald I think I exaggerated since it is rare, but my points on will o wisp and scorching sands remain tbh. Hurricane and Eruption are anything but spammable, Hurricane is the reason I don't really like using Zard anymore, while Typhlosion needs hazards gone (or use a HDB set, at which point I'd rather just use zard but that's just me).
252 SpA Charizard Flamethrower vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Floatzel: 111-132 (35.6 - 42.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Charizard Scorching Sands vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Floatzel: 117-138 (37.6 - 44.3%) -- 2% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Choice Specs Typhlosion Scorching Sands vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Floatzel: 174-205 (55.9 - 65.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

Floatzel has never been a Typhlosion check. It's weaker moves means Floatzel is just gonna die the next time it clicks Wave Crash / Double-Edge. As for Charizard, Floatzel can sometimes afford to switch into it, but that's exceptionnal and it's always when the Floatzel is in a bad position and is not a positive trade for them unless Zard clicks Will-O-Wisp.

Scald + Flip Turn Lanturn doesn't sound outrageous to me... you still have room for an electric move and a support move e.g. twave or eerie impulse. Please don't tell me you're using resttalk... maybe running physically defensive rocky helmet/HDB with volt absorb sounds ideal here.
Scald + Flip Turn is quite bad imo, but I get your idea. However RestTalk Lanturn has been the standard set for over a year now and while other sets are also viable, it's silly to deny its viability.

Volt switch is not very spammable imo exactly because of Jolteon, with Sandslash also contributing. Liquid ooze swalot is much more gimmicky tbh than stacking another item instead of standard ooga bunga heavy duty boots, the most overrated item in pokemon, so imo an ability is much more fundamental on a mon than the item its running. And so using Shaymin @ Rocky Helmet as an U-Turn absorber is viable, the thing has recovery.
That's a false comparison fallacy. If you wanna translate Liquid Ooze Swalot in Bellossom meta to something in Floatzel meta, then it's gotta be some shitty C-rank Pokémon like Tera Ghost Lapras. Anyway, RH is usually a bad item because Spikes are insanely good and prevalent in ZU; so you can't really afford it on anything that isn't airborne like Mesprit or Weezing. U-trun absorbers are rare and RH Shaymin is really bad in comparison to its other sets (even SD).

Back when I was laddering in the Floatzel test I initially relied on scarf passimian before reeling it in by using @MethMaster4546's physically defensive Eelektross set and a *specially* defensive Mesprit, both with Knock Off. And yeah, the Mesprit had a helmet.
SpD Mesprit with RH isn't really a sign of something being fine. Again, it's much easier to justify RH on two Levitate Pokémon, that barely lose anything from Leftovers and don't care about Boots. Nobody was saying Floatzel was impossible to check; the main argument has always been that it forced to trade important defensive pieces (emphasize on trade) or use terrible Pokémon (Poliwrath type of shit), to stand a chance.
 
The purpose of this post is not to doom over projected shifts, but more to look at what is seeing usage and what is underrated certain roles for anyone dooming over shifts.
these looked ugly without paragraphs, so I guess I'm gonna meet the wordcount. Also, I'm no missangelic, so I will be looking at these usage rates with as much math as my vegetable brain can handle (which is none. this is a no math zone. what I mean is my source for whether these stats mean anything is locked in is 'trust me bro'. I'm guesstimating.).

NU notes:
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| 47   | Uxie               |  5.081% |
This is one to keep an eye on, since if NU takes Uxie then PU might take Mespr-
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| 31   | Mesprit            |  6.958% |
oh...
If anyone here doesn't have NU connections and wants to know why, I've asked, and there's no explanation for this.

Well, let's see how Grafaiai and Braviary are doing on their way back:
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| 28   | Braviary           |  7.222% |
| 29   | Grafaiai           |  7.148% |
not coming... I see...

PU stats time:
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| 14   | Coalossal          | 12.297% |
Would be cool if it dropped since it's a C+ mon with removal in PU, but it's sitting at 12% usage. Frankly, I usually assume that anything with this much usage is never coming. The usage % on coal is scarily close to that of Forretress in RU (who is rocking a 12.322%). I don't even think it would be good here, since Regirock is on the decline.

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| 24   | Snorlax            |  9.475% |
NOOOOOooooooooo........ Well, I did expect this one. PU lost their special walls last shift, and frankly with the existences of Salazzle and Chandelure I kind of expected this to happen some day. I had hope that somehow Porygon2 would be enough for them, but I guess

Code:
| 34   | Rotom-Mow          |  6.256% |
| 35   | Mismagius          |  5.764% |
| 36   | Virizion           |  5.528% |
| 37   | Porygon2           |  5.498% |
| 41   | Kingdra            |  4.816% |
| 42   | Shaymin            |  4.657% |
None of these being PU would impact the meta too much but RIP Mowtom ig, and I'm just including Mismagius since I'm not really sure if it's good in PU or if it just rose based off a sample and never came back. 'Losing' P2 means that if we wanted to resuspect it in an absence of lax, uh we can't. Especially with the way I build, I don't think the loss of these grass types would be felt much, which is why I roped them in with the ZUBL mons.

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| 40   | Venusaur           |  5.309% |
NOOOOOOOOOOoooooo........ Well, this one isn't set in stone, but I really like the effect that Venusaur has on the meta. I'm hoping that nobody in PU uses the B+ mon once in the next 2 months. Frankly, if these projected shifts are anything like the actual ones, these are probably going to be the worst shifts this gen. Mesp, Lax, and Venu are the 3 most meta-defining mons right now, so I really hope that maybe everyone using them starts using Uxie, P2, and Amoonguss instead.

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| 43   | Lanturn            |  4.463% |
| 44   | Passimian          |  4.416% |
These would also not be good. Lanturn is either the #2 or #3 fire-type check in the tier, depending on where you count Whiscash. They're close to the usage threshold enough for me to not actually doom about these, but if we lose Pass, who do I give the scarf to? Basculin for the 100th time??

Code:
| 45   | Skuntank           |  4.129% |
| 46   | Hitmonlee          |  3.832% |
| 49   | Toxicroak          |  3.037% |
These, however, are very very cool. Skuntank dropping and Croak not rising would be amazing for the meta, and what's left of it probably would centralize somewhat around them. Skuntank is another B+ mon in PU that I guess they want us to have a taste of just to take it back 6 months later. I guess that not having terrain being real brings Hitmonlee back down here, which is fine. I have no idea what it'll do, if anything. It doesn't 2HKO tomb.

OK, on to the fun part that we can use today. Give it up for some graphs:

In deciding what did or didn't count as a special wall, I basically included everything I would run SpD EV's on. This means that I did include Orthworm and Regirock, but I didn't include stuff like Magneton or Perrserker.
Screenshot 2026-02-05 at 1.15.03 AM.png

Snorlax and Venusaur being the top 2 was pretty expectable. Lanturn at #3, however, did surprise me. I feel like every time I mention Lanturn's name that I have to defend it and point out how good it is at its role despite its flaws. I also feel like I don't see Muk as much as it actually gets used. As for the mons below the cutoff, I'm a little surprised that Piloswine is this high, but it does have a lot of benefits, and I promise you it's usable as a Charizard check. I'm surprised to see Vespiquen so high, and Camerupt so low. I guess if you directly compared Whiscash and Camerupt's stats, you would see why Whiscash and its real defensive stats are getting so much more usage than Hoenn-stat Camerupt. I was also convinced that ladder was more in love with Carbink than this, so seeing it at a respectably low place feels correct.
Screenshot 2026-02-05 at 1.15.20 AM.png

I did also go through and specifically look at mons that count as Zard checks. This one is a little less pretty because I did it before the other one, but if you want to know what your team needs to beat to open up a Charizard win, here it is:View attachment 806498
I mean, they're all the same special walls mostly, but I was nice and added Dachsbun. This does highlight that the top 3 individual Zard checks are Lax, Lanturn, and Whiscash in that order, but I could've told you that. The only other interesting thing here is that I added up the rock-type usage. I thought that analyzing both Naclstack and Regirock together would be interesting since the graph somewhat depicts that they are eating each others' usage up based on what I remembered, so I had to check if that was true or not. I went to look back to the other months, since although I'm adverse to math I'm also adverse to baseless speculation. In October, they had around 10% usage, ~9% in November, and ~7% in December. If I'm not doing the easy math to see what the percentages actually are, I'm definitely not gonna figure out how to do the complicated statistics math to prove that those events are not related. Naclstack's usage was pretty constant through the 3 months while Regirock's was on the decline, so I think it's safe to say there is no relation between Naclstack and Regirock usage.
If I'm doing special walls, it only makes sense that I do physical ones too:
Screenshot 2026-02-05 at 1.15.38 AM.png

I mean, who would've seen Mesprit being that high???/? (all of us). I think I'm surprised that Sandslash is as high as it is, considering the amount of dunking on it that's felt socially acceptable lately. It's cool to note how good our Ghosts are doing, with Froslass reaching the usage threshold and Sableye, Spiritomb, and Drifblim roughly averaging 10% each. If you were to add up all their usage, it would be 38.05% (i made google sheets do this math), which is exactly .7% behind Mesprit. It's a little crazy seeing Orthworm above Regirock, but I guess I see it with how Orthworm doesn't have to also worry about checking zard on top of its usual duties.
Screenshot 2026-02-05 at 1.15.54 AM.png

This is once again largely expected. Drifblim experienced a renaissance recently that may or may not have anything to do with Braviary, solidifying as the #3 removal mon by usage. Hitmontop and Sandslash at #1 and #2 should be no surprise, since they've been on top of the removal game for months at this point. Hitmontop was #2 in usage though, which is a little surprising despite its dominance. Cryogonal and Gurdurr being the next 2 most used is a little surprising since I don't think I've seen a Gurdurr since Ho3n's sample, but given the other options I see it. I think everything ranked behind Morpeko is objectively bad, and even then not including Morpeko in the bad removal feels a little wrong to me.
Hopefully you can tell which is which based on which starts with Hitmontop and which with Jolteon, but if not, Physical = Orange.
Screenshot 2026-02-05 at 1.16.08 AM.png

Screenshot 2026-02-05 at 1.16.33 AM.png

Maybe I'm still riding the Toxicroak hype train, but I expected it to be higher. It and Glastrier, since I think Glast is at a relative peak right now. I don't really have much else to add about the physical attackers, since I think it largely makes sense.
I included Pa'u on the special attackers because frankly, it's laughable how low its usage is. But hey, if Haunter is that high despite not being considered viable based on the VR, I guess ladder can also have Pa'u that low. I'm also surprised at how high Typhlosion is, but with the discovery of Drifblim I think removal is in a good enough spot right now to justify that right now, for ladder at least.

Yay. Graphs. I'm tired so if the images broke, my bad. I also didn't talk about anything underrated really, but that's what having the rest of the mons on the graph is for I guess.
 
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