Smogon Premier League XVII - Week 7

[shiloh]

>Spreadsheet<
>Games Schedule<
>Season Schedule<
>Prediction Form<

Tournament Rules and General Guidelines

Matchups:

Indie Scooters (0) vs (0) Ever Grande BIGS

SV OU: Storm Zone vs Mako
SV OU: DAHLI vs pdt
SV OU: Pais vs Hiko
SV OU: heileone vs Stareal
SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs Mattz_
SM OU: Drachenkeule vs GeniusX
ORAS OU: BluBirD vs xray
BW OU: tko vs JustFranco
DPP OU: SFG vs 199
ADV OU: Triangles vs Johnald
GSC OU: elodin vs OmBrArch
RBY OU: nicole7735 vs Serpi

Dragonspiral Tyrants (0) vs (0) Stark Sharks

SV OU: Fusien vs Nat
SV OU: myjava vs Attribute
SV OU: Baddy vs hellom
SV OU: Axzel vs Plague
SS OU: Ikaishi vs MichaelderBeste2
SM OU: Vert vs DeeJ
ORAS OU: Poek vs Santu
BW OU: SoulWind vs harshest
DPP OU: BlazingDark vs Marshall.Law
ADV OU: Shitrock enjoyer vs Kollin7
GSC OU: RealJester vs aminita
RBY OU: LNumbers vs GirlsSeeGhosts

Circus Maximus Tigers (0) vs (0) Cryonicles

SV OU: Ewin vs kDCA
SV OU: entrocefalo vs watashi
SV OU: Patatexv vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV OU: LOOR vs clean
SS OU: Zaza vs Corazan
SM OU: Tace vs c0mp
ORAS OU: NoName6293 vs MGdos16
BW OU: Finchinator vs GaryTheGengar
DPP OU: Pideous vs Gilbert arenas
ADV OU: pixie909 vs zinc
GSC OU: Rubyblood vs Zokuru
RBY OU: Laroxyl vs Sceptross

Congregation of the Classiest (0) vs (0) Wi-Fi Wolfpack

SV OU: Xrn vs bbeeaa
SV OU: LpZ vs Let's Rumble Shall We
SV OU: Garay oak vs Fogbound Lake
SV OU: LB vs Sacri'
SS OU: damien the genius vs Gtcha
SM OU: Piyu vs Gondra
ORAS OU: Spitfire vs kingofking
BW OU: Dark Eeveon vs Monai
DPP OU: Sheik : vs Void
ADV OU: M Dragon vs mielke
GSC OU: Groudon vs coco
RBY OU: Ctown6 vs Isza

Alpha Ruiners (0) vs (0) Team Raiders

SV OU: lax vs zS
SV OU: fakenagol vs tier
SV OU: ACR1 vs JJ09LIE
SV OU: sire clod vs MANNAT
SS OU: ChrisPBacon vs Fc
SM OU: devin vs Eternal Spirit
ORAS OU: Metallica126 vs Ruffles
BW OU: sugarhigh vs Star
DPP OU: Fakes vs Skyrio
ADV OU: JabbaTheGriffin vs Endill
GSC OU: pj vs Vileman
RBY OU: SaDiSTiCNarwhal vs BeeOrSomething


Deadline will be March 1, 11:00 PM GMT -5.

Predictions Format

Indie Scooters (0) vs (0) Ever Grande BIGS
SV OU: Storm Zone vs Mako
SV OU: DAHLI vs pdt
SV OU: Pais vs Hiko
SV OU: heileone vs Stareal
SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs Mattz_
SM OU: Drachenkeule vs GeniusX
ORAS OU: BluBirD vs xray
BW OU: tko vs JustFranco
DPP OU: SFG vs 199
ADV OU: Triangles vs Johnald
GSC OU: elodin vs OmBrArch
RBY OU: nicole7735 vs Serpi

Dragonspiral Tyrants (0) vs (0) Stark Sharks
SV OU: Fusien vs Nat
SV OU: myjava vs Attribute
SV OU: Baddy vs hellom
SV OU: Axzel vs Plague
SS OU: Ikaishi vs MichaelderBeste2
SM OU: Vert vs DeeJ
ORAS OU: Poek vs Santu
BW OU: SoulWind vs harshest
DPP OU: BlazingDark vs Marshall.Law
ADV OU: shitrock enjoyer vs Kollin7
GSC OU: RealJester vs aminita
RBY OU: LNumbers vs GirlsSeeGhosts

Circus Maximus Tigers (0) vs (0) Cryonicles
SV OU: Ewin vs kDCA
SV OU: entrocefalo vs watashi
SV OU: Patatexv vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV OU: LOOR vs clean
SS OU: Zaza vs Corazan
SM OU: Tace vs c0mp
ORAS OU: NoName6293 vs MGdos16
BW OU: Finchinator vs GaryTheGengar
DPP OU: Pideous vs Gilbert arenas
ADV OU: pixie909 vs zinc
GSC OU: Rubyblood vs Zokuru
RBY OU: Laroxyl vs Sceptross

Congregation of the Classiest (0) vs (0) Wi-Fi Wolfpack
SV OU: Xrn vs bbeeaa
SV OU: LpZ vs Let's Rumble Shall We
SV OU: Garay oak vs Fogbound Lake
SV OU: LB vs Sacri'
SS OU: damien the genius vs Gtcha
SM OU: Piyu vs Gondra
ORAS OU: Spitfire vs kingofking
BW OU: Dark Eeveon vs Monai
DPP OU: Sheik : vs Void
ADV OU: M Dragon vs mielke
GSC OU: Groudon vs coco
RBY OU: Ctown6 vs Isza

Alpha Ruiners (0) vs (0) Team Raiders
SV OU: lax vs zS
SV OU: fakenagol vs tier
SV OU: ACR1 vs JJ09LIE
SV OU: sire clod vs MANNAT
SS OU: ChrisPBacon vs Fc
SM OU: devin vs Eternal Spirit
ORAS OU: Metallica126 vs Ruffles
BW OU: sugarhigh vs Star
DPP OU: Fakes vs Skyrio
ADV OU: JabbaTheGriffin vs Endill
GSC OU: pj vs Vileman
RBY OU: SaDiSTiCNarwhal vs BeeOrSomething

 

[SandVeil10]

Come on Bigs, go get 'em!

 

[Lady Bug]

GSC OU: pj vs Vileman

 

[SFG]

GSC OU: pj vs Vileman

 

[Vyluda]

Indie Scooters (7) vs (5) Ever Grande BIGS
SV OU: Storm Zone vs Mako
SV OU: DAHLI vs pdt
SV OU: Pais vs Hiko
SV OU: heileone vs Stareal
SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs Mattz_
SM OU: Drachenkeule vs GeniusX
ORAS OU: BluBirD vs xray
BW OU: tko vs JustFranco
DPP OU: SFG vs 199
ADV OU: Triangles vs Johnald
GSC OU: elodin vs OmBrArch
RBY OU: nicole7735 vs Serpi

Dragonspiral Tyrants (8) vs (4) Stark Sharks
SV OU: Fusien vs Nat
SV OU: myjava vs Attribute
SV OU: Baddy vs hellom
SV OU: Axzel vs Plague
SS OU: Ikaishi vs MichaelderBeste2
SM OU: Vert vs DeeJ
ORAS OU: Poek vs Santu
BW OU: SoulWind vs harshest
DPP OU: BlazingDark vs Marshall.Law
ADV OU: shitrock enjoyer vs Kollin7
GSC OU: RealJester vs aminita
RBY OU: LNumbers vs GirlsSeeGhosts

Circus Maximus Tigers (6) vs (6) Cryonicles
SV OU: Ewin vs kDCA
SV OU: entrocefalo vs watashi
SV OU: Patatexv vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV OU: LOOR vs clean
SS OU: Zaza vs Corazan
SM OU: Tace vs c0mp
ORAS OU: NoName6293 vs MGdos16
BW OU: Finchinator vs GaryTheGengar
DPP OU: Pideous vs Gilbert arenas
ADV OU: pixie909 vs zinc
GSC OU: Rubyblood vs Zokuru
RBY OU: Laroxyl vs Sceptross

Congregation of the Classiest (5) vs (7) Wi-Fi Wolfpack
SV OU: Xrn vs bbeeaa
SV OU: LpZ vs Let's Rumble Shall We
SV OU: Garay oak vs Fogbound Lake
SV OU: LB vs Sacri'
SS OU: damien the genius vs Gtcha
SM OU: Piyu vs Gondra
ORAS OU: Spitfire vs kingofking
BW OU: Dark Eeveon vs Monai
DPP OU: Sheik : vs Void
ADV OU: M Dragon vs mielke
GSC OU: Groudon vs coco
RBY OU: Ctown6 vs Isza

Alpha Ruiners (5) vs (7) Team Raiders
SV OU: lax vs zS
SV OU: fakenagol vs tier
SV OU: ACR1 vs JJ09LIE
SV OU: sire clod vs MANNAT
SS OU: ChrisPBacon vs Fc
SM OU: devin vs Eternal Spirit
ORAS OU: Metallica126 vs Ruffles
BW OU: sugarhigh vs Star
DPP OU: Fakes vs Skyrio
ADV OU: JabbaTheGriffin vs Endill
GSC OU: pj vs Vileman
RBY OU: SaDiSTiCNarwhal vs BeeOrSomething

 

[Bohrier]

GSC OU: pj vs Vileman

Not even vileman bringing 6 ifm zapdoses will stop pj from winning.

 

[Empo]

Subbing in Kingler > pj
Vileman goldmason Laurel twash

 

[Kingler]

 

[Kingler]

 

[chargedram]

ORAS OU: BluBirD vs xray
Personally, I think that's a hell of a bird

 

[Lady Bug]

GSC OU: Kingler vs Vileman

 

[ego]

Roster roundup​

Cryonicles:

- SV: bhkg (5-1) -> Dugtrio Is Broken (0-0)​

Sharks:

- ADV: mayo (1-4) -> Kollin7 (0-1)​

Scooters:

- ORAS: Ox the Fox (1-5) -> BluBirD (0-0)​

Tyrants:
- no changes
Tigers:

- SV: Cow (1-3) -> entrocefalo (2-0)​

- SV: Kate (2-4) -> LOOR (0-0)​

- SS: entrocefalo (2-2) -> Zaza (0-0)​

Raiders:

- SV: Ash KetchumGamer (2-4) -> MANNAT (0-0)​

- SM: Charmflash (2-4) -> Eternal Spirit (0-0)​

- GSC: Underlying (1-4) -> Vileman (0-0)​

BIGs:

- SV: JustFranco (1-5) -> Mako (0-0)​

- Larry (0-1) -> pdt (2-3)​

- BW: Mako (3-3) -> JustFranco (0-0)​

Classiest:

- SV: Lazuli (2-4) -> Garay oak (0-0)​

- ORAS: London Beats (0-2) -> Spitfire (0-0)​

- ADV: Garay oak (3-3) -> M Dragon (0-0)​

- GSC: M Dragon (3-2) -> Groudon (0-0)​

Wolfpack:

- no changes​

Ruiners:

- SM: PZZ (1-3) -> devin (0-0)​

- GSC: pj (0-1) -> Kingler (0-0)​

​

Almost every team's making interesting moves this week, and that includes the teams that are running back the same lineup. The Tyrants are clearly confident in their lineup, and this week amounts to a declaration that a) they still have faith in Poek despite the 1-5 start and b) they're really not sure who the solution in DPP is (I think they'll find SOMEONE, fwiw). Meanwhile, I do understand why the Wolfpack aren't making moves (their biggest issues are their highest-paid players and the ones with the longest leashes), but if I'm being honest, surely they have options, right? I don't really see what they're getting out of constantly alternating their ORAS slots, either; I assume it's availability. Mind you, they're not out of it at all (their final three opponents are 7th, 8th, and 10th in BD, and a playoff spot is probably still in play at 10 points), but they really need wins out of their big slots).

The BIGs swapping Mako and JustFranco makes sense; it's the alignment I predicted at the beginning of the season anyway. Speaking of alignments finally matching with what I predicted preseason, I'm honestly a little confused why Piyu started the season in ORAS and Spitfire SM; I thought the most logical setup would be the other way around, and I guess we're trying it now in week 7. Moving Garay to SV is interesting, but could definitely work; you're okay with not having a spot for Lazuli anymore because Sheik is 5-1. I don't think I love the Tigers switching entro and Cow back, to be honest, but I get that this is all a backup plan, and it's a fine problem to have when Finch is 4-0 in BW. I don't have much to add with the Raiders, but I do think that SM Gama could work out quite well. The Scooters finally pull the plug on Ox in ORAS, and I'm honestly a bit surprised it didn't happen sooner given that they have a very capable backup. Lastly, the Sharks swap mayo out again, but I figured it'd be Malekith in that slot.

Preseason overachievers/underachievers​

This week, I decided to compare preseason rankings to the current standings for each tier. Which slots have exceeded expectations the most, and which have underachieved? I'll also compare to my preseason rankings; at least one instance of a player vastly exceeding projections is due in large part because I felt like the PRs were wildly low on someone. Let's start with the overachievers:

5. Wolfpack ORAS (preseason 9th, currently tied for 1st)
Persephone's one of a handful of starters I actually hadn't heard of when researching preseason, but in combination with kingofking, they've done well enough to make up for just how weird the Wolfpack's roster construction is. They've been solid before, yeah, but that was years ago, and I would not have predicted the xray or c0mp wins. Five wins, a lone loss to arguably the best player in the whole tournament, all for 6k, that'll work.

4. Raiders DPP preseason 10th, currently tied for 1st)
Admittedly, they could have a pretty brutal end to the season here (Fakes into SFG into Void), but Skyrio has done a pretty admirable job here in their attempt to prove the lone voter who had them 3rd in the pool right, and the Raiders have needed basically all those wins.

3. Sharks SM (preseason 9th, currently 1st)
This pool looked very up in the air to me; Vert was ranked 1st with no sheet games in the tier, and while Tace is good, you'd probably expect them to be more of a middle-of-the-pool option. Instead, you had a pool where basically everyone could finish first if they put things together. DeeJ flew a bit under the radar on a loaded Sharks fairygens core (Santu, MDB2, Nat, Attribute, hellom, with mind gaming on the managing staff), but they're tied with Santu and Attribute for best on the team. This is a little tentative because they still have to face Vert and Tace, but so far? The Sharks have gotten a 5-1 record out of a relative weak spot.

2. Tyrants SS (preseason 10th, currently 1st)
Yeah, this is SS, so 1st is only 4-2 and last is 2-4, but still, this pool had a ton of talent with proven starters top to bottom, and Ikaishi's looked great as a complete sheet rookie. Good work by the Tyrants, and I'm excited to watch this week against MichaelderBeste2 (my #1 in the pool).

1. Scooters GSC (preseason 10th, currently 1st)
This one is ludicrous. I'd personally put this lower because I had elodin as 4th in the pool (after M Dragon, Fakes, and Rubyblood). So both things are true; elodin's probably been the best player in the tournament, going 6-0 so far against basically all of the tier's top threats and doing so with a relatively limited GSC support staff on the Scooters, and ranking him 10th in the PRs preseason was insane. These PRs were weird in general; you had three tour players with Classic credentials and limited GSC experience on the sheet, and one of them finished 1st in the PRs, one 6th, and one 10th. Not that I know anything about GSC, of course.

Now time for the underachievers:

5. Tyrants DPP (preseason 6th, currently 10th)
There are a few others I could go with (Raiders ADV and BIGs SM, mostly), but I'll stick with this one, because the Tyrants have the only winless slot in the tournament. It's also worth noting that a Tyrants team that has otherwise been quite patient with its starters this year has tried three different players in this slot. They do have a few options, but no one's stuck yet.

4. Ruiners ADV (preseason 4th, currently tied for 9th)
Shake memorably clowned on Prinz's auction price. I wasn't quite so pessimistic (mostly because this ADV pool seemed wide-open), but prior to last season it had been a while since Prinz had played SPL, and they didn't do great in RBY. But yeah, the Ruiners desperately needed Prinz to be an anchor slot for them and it just didn't happen.

3. Wolfpack SV (4th preseason, currently 10th)
Okay, so I've mentioned before how weird the Wolfpack's roster construction was. This really feels like a tournament that was built to have bbeeaa in SM, but then they had Fogbound Lake as their SV star, and instead of picking up SV depth they drafted Gondra to start in SM. Not that this is all bbeeaa's fault, of course; Originality56 went 0-3 into bench and Fog's only 2-4. Sacri' picking up a few wins helps, but yeah, so far this has been an unmitigated disaster for the team.

2. Wolfpack DPP (1st preseason, currently 9th)
This sure has been a season from hell for the Wolfpack. There's still time for a bounceback, with Void staying in the lineup for now and the team desperately needing to win out to keep their playoff hopes alive, but this is a pretty shocking season for someone who was 16-2? over the past two years. If you want to put them first here because an act loss is more embarassing than a regular loss, I won't object too hard.

1. Raiders BW (1st preseason, currently tied for 9th)
Reportedly there has been a ton of hax involved here. It's possible that Star just did something to incur the wrath of the Smogon karma arbitrators given that he also pulled Vert in R5 of OST, but yeah, going 1-5 for 36k is brutal. The Underlying and Endill slots could also be on this list (it's been a rough year for the Raiders outside of Skyrio and zS), but Star cost almost as much as Skyrio/zS/JJ09LIE/Fc combined.

---

P.S. after pulling into 1st in the predictions contest with an excellent week 6, I am now offering my services as a weekly predicts ghoster! My rate is whatever Vert offered for SV tutoring to put Pinkacross out of business plus an angry react.

 

[mielke]

shoutout mint yerb for the editing and creative input, great meme xd

 

[abra xdd]

SV OU: Patatexv vs Dugtrio Is Broken

 

[pzwrd]

Circus Maximus Tigers (0) vs (12) Cryonicles
SV OU: Ewin vs kDCA
SV OU: entrocefalo vs watashi
SV OU: Patatexv vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV OU: LOOR vs clean
SS OU: Zaza vs Corazan
SM OU: Tace vs c0mp
ORAS OU: NoName6293 vs MGdos16
BW OU: Finchinator vs GaryTheGengar
DPP OU: Pideous vs Gilbert arenas
ADV OU: pixie909 vs zinc
GSC OU: Rubyblood vs Zokuru
RBY OU: Laroxyl vs Sceptross

only bias allowed heh

 

[Ske]

Rooting for Tigers because their lineup reminds me of old OU room + Tace who once told me to stay out OU room