CAP 37 - Part 6 - Threats Discussion

[Spammernoob]

CAP 37 So Far

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CAP 37 is a Dark/Flying Pokemon that aims to use the conditional move Beak Blast. Its ability is Opportunist.

In this stage, we will try to analyze which Pokemon sets could threaten or be threatened by us. Based on our typing and concept we will also decide which specific threats we should focus on later stages, and which ones should be mostly left alone. Then, the Topic Leader will organize them into a list, following this basic format:

• Switch in: The list of Pokemon on which we should be able to have a easy time switching in and then forcing them out, more than once in a game. This doesn't mean that we should be able to come into any of their moves, just their most commonly used ones.
• Pressure: The list of Pokemon that might threaten us, but should not be able to switch in easily. They should not be able to check us easily.
• Checks and Counters: The list of Pokemon should, in some way, threaten us. This might mean that they will probably be able to beat us 1v1, or at least severely cripple us. Certain Pokemon, in particular Revenge Killers might be included both in here and in Pressure, because once they switch in, they should be able to check us.

This threatlist should serve as a guideline for the rest of the project. However, this is not set in stone, and might change later if the Topic Leadership Team deems it necessary.

The following is a set of questions that we should try to answer during this discussion:

• Going specifically by typing, what Pokemon found in the CAP metagame will be able to comfortably give this project trouble?
• What Pokemon will be major threats to this project right off the bat?
• What Pokemon have the potential to become counters?
• What Pokemon may end up as threats, but must be contained or dealt with per the concept?
• Will the concept succeed with this list of threats?
• Is this list of threats acceptable for the project?
• What Pokemon will be threatened by the CAP based off of typing?
• Are these Pokemon targets that we want CAP to hit?
• Will these targets be "unavoidable" to threaten based solely on the typing?
• What direction must the project go in now that a set list of basic threats has been identified?
• What must be done in order to make these threats "wanted counters" or these threats be eliminated from counter discussion?
• Are there any Pokemon that we want to completely counter?

No individual post has to answer every question.

Guidelines:
1) Pay close attention to the Topic Leader during this discussion. Their job is to keep us focused and to bring insight.
2) Do not poll jump. Poll jumping is a serious offense in these threads, and you can get infracted for it. Poll jumping is when you discuss something that should be discussed in the future, like specifying a CAP's stats or typing. You're allowed to hint at such things to conclude a point or to provide an example, but do not centralize your post on a poll jump. Poll jumping hurts the focus of early threads and can cause us to go off on a tangent. If you're not sure if a particular argument is poll jumping or not, err on the side of caution and don't post it.
3) Refer to Pokemon by specific sets. This way we can clearly identify which specific sets we should be focusing on, and what specific characteristics makes us threaten or threatened by them. Adding complete movesets, EV spreads and Natures is recommended, but not mandatory.
4) Assume that Stealth Rock in on both sides of the field, unless otherwise specified. This can be changed by the Topic Leader during the discussion.
4) This are the exact definitions of check and counter that we will be working with:

-Pokémon A checks a Pokémon B set if, when Pokémon A is given a free switch into that Pokémon B set, Pokémon A can win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.
-Pokémon A counters a Pokémon B set if Pokémon A can manually switch into that Pokémon B set, and still win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.

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With all that said, I'll hand it over to earthflax for the OP.

 

[earthflax]

Hello all, welcome to Threats Discussion. We have our Ability, we have our typing, we have Beak Blast, and now we need to know: Who are our opps? Onto the questions.

1. What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
2. What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into? This point has been a bit overlooked in recent discussion, so I’d like to see some thoughts on this especially.
3. Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

48-72 hours for these questions, tentatively.

 

[chartung17]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?

The most obvious threats are Hemogoblin and special attacking fairies: they resist our dark STAB, they can't be burned by Beak Blast, and they can outrun us whenever we click Beak Blast (regardless of speed) and hit us with their supereffective STAB. Opportunist may help in some of these matches against Calm Mind users (assuming we have enough bulk to avoid a OHKO), but we're still at a significant disadvantage here.

 

[Anchor9]

1. What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
In its current state, CAP 37 heavily struggles into Fire types (such as Hemogoblin and Mollux) and Special Attackers (such as Krilowatt, Ramnarok, and Stratagem) . Hemogoblin specifically ignores Beak Blast Burn and Choice Band sets specifically seem dangerous. Volt Switch pivots seems to also be very free, so Krilowatt and Shox are definitely problematic. Shox can do whatever it wants against the current form of CAP 37 without any punishment. If CAP 37 does not have some sort of Specially offensive pressure or some Speed, there is little stopping a threat like Darkrai from using CAP 37 as a free Nasty Plot.

2. What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into?
Currently it looks like CAP 37 will be solid check to Revenankh and Great Tusk. CAP 37 has a useful Ground immunity and punishes common moves like Rapid Spin and U-turn. Depending on its Speed tier and other moves, it can also possibly swap into and immediately threaten out setup sweepers like Gliscor, Ogerpon-W, and Naviathan. It has an ok matchup into Arghonaut but doesn’t appreciate Knock Off on the switch.

3. Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

CAP 37 looks like it will be excellent at stopping physical setup sweepers and pivots. Depending on its Speed tier, it can check faster threats such as Ogerpon-W. With a good Speed tier and a good Special Attack, it can possibly swap into Nasty Plot and gain a dangerous boost, making Special sweepers like Venomicon and Gholdengo think twice before clicking something such as Nasty Plot.

 

[Cyaneedle]

1. What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
   CAP37 (depending on the stats, might) loathe the existence of the many potent special setup-sweepers, especially the ones that choose to use Nasty Plot over Calm Mind, even if we don't have the stats, its relatively fine to assume that it'll suffer more against the ones that forego special defense boost for extra power. To contrast, outside of like, Darkrai, CAP37 does have a somewhat fine matchup against most of the Nasty plotters. Additionally, CAP37, atleast to me, seems almost comically weak to Hemogoblin, with its Dark typing making it weaker to the Goblin's Pixilate-boosted Extreme Speeds, and its Fire/Fairy typing meaning that it can't utilize Beak Blast to its fullest. At least it can sorta gimp Bulk Up sets. stay FAR away from the banders. CAP37 is also notably weak to Volt Switch pivots, one of the cons of its Flying typing. Though for the most part they are telegraphed enough for a simple switch to keep your CAP37 safe and ready to threaten physical attackers.
   
   
2. What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into?
   Dark / Flying is a very interesting typing, It carries a surprisingly useful kit of both Resists and Immunities, including the ever-present Ground type move, Earthquake and the less-common-but-still-notable Psychic type. Which means it can actually switch INTO some of the common Psychic Noise users (Excluding Primarina w/ Liquid Voice, and very likely Hatterene) and not only threaten, but possibly even buy turns to get ITSELF a free heal, or to position one of your more offensive pokemon.
   
   The Pokemon CAP37 can switch into is rather subjective to me, but i think it'll be able to switch in on users of Ground-type moves, STAB and non-stab, pretty well. Its typing is actually perfect for this, as it can easily force the opponent's hand if put into a bad enough position. With the right stat allocations, It might have a surprising amount of success on the "switching in onto Physical Sweepers" front too, given the possibility of it being able to outspeed quite a few notable Pokemon, including a few notable 90-99 speed Dragon Dancers and other Swords Dancers.
   
   
3. Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?
   CAP37 succeeds in something pretty simple; Make clicking contact moves a risk. Things as simple as using Rapid Spin or U-Turn going from auto-clicks to hesitant moves. It also appears relatively anti-sweeper (.. if the stats align correctly) with Opportunist letting it copy a threatening Sweeper's boosts, making it especially dangerous for players who are willing to risk the mind-game. if CAP37 pulls off a Beak Blast against an SD mon, unless you resist that move, your sweeper WILL be chunked. and that's incredibly useful for CAP37.
   
   
   extra note: I think CAP37 will also be a pretty useful Tera mon, especially with Tera Ground if it wants to stop a Volt Switch pivot in a pinch, that can easily turn the tides of a battle.

 

[Amamama]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?

Defensively especially bulky Fairy and Electric types such as Clef, Shox, Cresceidon and Zapdos are difficult for us as they hit us super effectively and most of the time are special attackers, which means we can’t punish them with a burn. They also resist one of our Stabs and aren’t super bothered by the other STAB if not backed by absurd power (though Zapdos and Cresc would for sure dislike Knock).
Garg is probably the most obvious counter to anything we do as we can’t hit it SE and it’s immune to burn and it just can abuse 37 to make progress in some way.

CAP 37 heavily struggles into Fire types

I don’t agree 37 heavily struggles into fire types. Yes we likely have a bad matchup into Hemo due to its fairy typing but other fire types are mostly neutral matchups that maybe lean one way or the other (Ram might be favored, Ceruledge and Mollux are probably unvafored).
Fire types do not interact with Beak Blasts Burn but aside from Hemo that is fine given their special attackers or weak to dark/knock

If CAP 37 does not have some sort of Specially offensive pressure or some Speed, there is little stopping a threat like Darkrai from using CAP 37 as a free Nasty Plot.

While darkrai isn’t bothered by burns a 100bp neutral STAB is far from giving free set up opportunities.

What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into? This point has been a bit overlooked in recent discussion, so I’d like to see some thoughts on this especially.

The two stand out switch in types for 37 are ghosts and ground types. While it isn’t a clear counter to any of them the ground immunity and ghost resist should afford 37 with good options to come in without much trouble (though status is still and issue.
I think its best matchup is probably into rev now that we have opportunist but mons like Tusk, Ting Lu, Pech and Gholdengo present solid if maybe a bit risky switch in opportunities. Another Pokemon 37 should be able to take advantage of is Glowking especially since it can deny Future sight pins.

it can also possibly swap into and immediately threaten out setup sweepers like Gliscor, Ogerpon-W, and Naviathan.

these are more difficult as switch ins even with opportunist bc you can only take advantage of boosts if your fast or strong enough.
Gliscor can play slow and stall 37 unless we hit ridiculously hard. Oger is tough to switch in safely and even if we get in on a SD we would need to outspeed or have stupid phys bulk to not be threatened by a ohko and Naviathan I’m pretty sure nukes us and we don’t even threaten it back. This goes for other phys sweepers as well. Stuff like Ceruledge, Kingambit or Dragonite might still be able to muscle past with just sheer power if we can’t outspeed them.

With a good Speed tier and a good Special Attack, it can possibly swap into Nasty Plot and gain a dangerous boost, making Special sweepers like Venomicon and Gholdengo think twice before clicking something such as Nasty Plot.

idt given our current build we have any business trying to deal with Special sweepers especially nasty plot sweepers. We might be able to take advantage of a calm mind maybe but most cm sweepers already have great matchups into 37 anyway.

Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

I think 37 is deceptively hard to cover defensively which allows to pressure the opponent. It does however have mostly shaky switch in possibilities which makes it easy to wear down which is compounded by the reduce priority of beak blast.
Despite Opportunist this typing isn’t particularly geared towards stopping any sort of sweeper and I believe that stats and moves need to do some heavy lifting if it is desired to do so.
What we do well just with typing is incentivize neutral contact moves and weak resisted moves (knock/rapid spin) which makes it easier to actualize the concept. Especially since opportunist deters one option to click non damaging moves and as a Dark type we have guaranteed access to taunt which is another way to force the opponent to attack into us.

 

[Shock3600]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?

With beak blast, we should be able to excel at switching into physical threats, and forcing them out with the force of a burn. Pokemon that threaten that are going to be ones that can switch into us too easily, not letting us ever turn our threat into an actual burn, and physical attackers that can ignore the threat of the burn. Looking at the VR, Gliscor and Garg look to be two easy switch ins to Beak Blast unless we have an extremely high attack stat. Other switch ins are going to depend more on that attack stat and investment. Hemo, Cinderace, and Ogerpon are physical attackers that can avoid our burn and threaten our gameplan that way.

What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into?

Our typing doesn't do a lot for us into physical attackers. Our main switch in opportunities are going to be physical attackers that we can force a switch afterwards, in order to heal back up (if we have recovery). Any more detail I'm unsure on without stats at this point.

Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

The biggest strength of our current kit is the ability to make progress once we are in. Our offensive typing is fantastic. I am at a loss at what else to write oop

 

[a fairy]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
Special attackers come immediately to mind. For example, Darkrai can run coverage to threaten us with powerful SE hits, while not worrying about Beak Blast's side effect. Additionally, Darkrai doesn't rely on boosting to accomplish this damage, blanking the threat of Opportunist. SpA Dragapult is similar, though it lacks a common coverage for SE damage in exchange for a good threat of Wisp ruining us. Clefable, while not usually a big damage dealer, has SE STAB and even if it were somehow burned, by say using Knock Off, doesn't care about that either. I think Darkrai probably will end up forcing us out regularly, alongside Dragapult. However, I'm less convinced that Clefable actively threatens us out, pending stats, though I think we're unlikely to cause it to fear us either. OTOH, I think Opportunist gives us an interesting interaction with Hemogoblin, we're certainly terrified of ESpeed but if it tries to greed Bulk Up suddenly we're matching it - I do kinda think we can't realistically handle that.

What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into? This point has been a bit overlooked in recent discussion, so I’d like to see some thoughts on this especially.
I think setup, especially something like Ceruledge SD or Gliscor SD, Tusk or Rev BU, or even DNite can be useful opportunies (heh) to switch in. I also think Tusk especially is a target of ours, as is Ting-Lu - the former needs to carry specific contact coverage to take us out and wants to be clicking stuff like Spin (beneficial for us even on switchin) and Headlong (immune) if it has a free turn. Lu, on the other hand, really can only phaze us out, unless it starts teching Stone Edge for some reason.

Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?
We've done a pretty decent job of threatening a range of status moves with our ability. I feel like CAP37's not going to have access to or moveslot space for boosting moves, so nabbing a +1 Speed from a Tusk spin or a +2 Attack from a DNite SD seems real useful. This 'mon seems more and more to be approaching the mindset of "screw these specific Pokemon in particular", where if it sees a certain few Pokemon on the opposing team preview, it's likely to make those mon's day miserable, but otherwise it doesn't really interact with a whole lot of other things beyond its useful immunities and a decently high power STAB doing damage.

 

[Gekokeso]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
People mention fire types for their burn immunity but honestly besides the obvious outlier in hemo the great mayority fo them aren't particularly keen on switching into either of our stabs, the same applies to ice types. That means the our only true threats are bulky fairy types, electric types, and a couple of rock types. The likes of Shox, Garganacl and Booster Energy Raging Bolt are our hardest counters, as assuming knock off is our main stab they can both absorb it as well as beak blast. Without assuming Knock Off, the likes of Zapdos, Creseidon, Clefable and Hatterene come to mind.

What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into?
37 is particularly good against the most available spinners and defoggers of the metagame, such as the likes of Tusk and Snaelstrom. Ground type moves are our easier switchins, but in general physical attackers will be an opportunity for us to switch in, given we are looking at a somewhat physically inclined pokémon.

Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?
Our offensive typing is particularly effective as making switching into us a rather annoying task, as our offensive combination isn't really well resisted by the threats in the metagame. Opportunist makes it so a lot of physical setup users are discouraged from setting up which can help a lot of pokémon forced out by them in the likes of Libra or Great Tusk.

 

[N-Manifold]

There is a somewhat wide range of physical tankiness that we can get away with in this concept, and it affects our matchup spread a lot here. In the interest of not polljumping, I have been running calcs with physical spreads everywhere from zapdos to pechurant and several in between, but I will comment on some of these differences when relevant.

Hemo is the obvious threat, unless we have astonishngly high physical tankiness we can't take two pixiespeeds, though doing like 50-60 with blast is not too difficult with 252+ attack, iirc we can go as low as 80 or so and still be pretty likely to 2hko hemo. Kyurem also presents a challenge, the special sets obviously shred us, but even ddance is a big issue, a +1 252+ beak blast doesn't kill Kyurem while a +1 icicle spear probably OKHOs
and doesn't make contact. We probably won't ever be doing anything to Graganacl. SD Gambit is actually an interesting case, it resists both of our STABs but really doesn't want to click unboosted iron head into a beak blast. It can reliably OKHO even pretty physically tanky stuff with +2 iron head and enough corpses in the back, but the ability to switch in and threaten burn is pretty nice and makes this matchup a lot less miserable than it otherwise would be. I think angling to be more annoying to gambit would be a good target. Lorb Zamazenta would hypothetically be a good matchup, but stone edge not making contact is very unfortunate for us here.

As for switch-ins, anything physical can't 2HKO cap37 is basically a switch-in, any Argh and Tusk are two good examples, but there are some others too. An unboosted Ddance Dragonite for example needs to get the read on ice spinner for the switch-in or it loses, espeed+spinner probably isn't enough without boosts and spinner makes contact. Ogerpon-W is an interesting case, it can 2HKO with play rough (or 1HKO off an SD) but it really can't do much outside of that. 37 can't do much against SD Gliscor if it's already set up, but it can very freely switch in on an unboosted Gliscor no matter what and then opportunist lets it even beat SD sets.

I have seen some talk of switching in to Ting-Lu, but as always the problem is that cap37 probably can't do much to bother Ting-Lu while Ting-Lu can sit there setting up hazards, chunking our health with ruination, and/or using whirlwind to force us out. We would need a pretty high attack stat for Bblast to even deal 30%, likely it is dealing more like 20-25%. Like many other bulky attackers with neutral coverage against Ting-Lu and no fear of EQ, it's not a bad matchup for us, it's just not a particularly good one either.